Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 6:31pm Eric Original
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Eric Original wrote: Whatever

Eric Original wrote:

Whatever happened to the Mogambo Guru anyway? He was fun to read.

Yeah he was an idiot, but in the best sense. I was wondering too. Thanks Titus.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 6:53pm
Long John
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3x silver etf??

Is anyone aware of a 3x silver or gold etf? I thought I read about it here before , but failed to find it in my google searches

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 7:23pm pailin
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pailin wrote: Yeah he was an

pailin wrote:

Yeah he was an idiot, but in the best sense.

I want that for my tombstone!!

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 7:29pm Titus Andronicus
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as far as i am concerned from

as far as i am concerned from a trading perspective, my inability to truly capture the large gold move has been disappointing. i look at the physical gain i've made and it dwarfs all of the gold trading i have done to date.

i still cannot get in for a real long at this level, i sold out all the way up but still feel like a moron. i'm not on the damn train....i can say that there will be another point for me to get back on but if it had been that easy i wouldn't have missed it in the first place.

the worst part of watching this is despite all the technical indicators it is impossible to tell where it is going. this reminds me of trading stocks. u r staring at technical indicators for weeks. then earnings come along and the chart is completely destroyed due to a large quantum move. once that move occurs usually the stock begins to retrend in a direction. what if this last few days move in gold was a RESETTING of the chart, like after an earnings statement. the earnings statement being the downgrade in us debt. i cannot answer this & i cannot ride this as a full long but gold can go to 2000 from here without a problem b/c the news is still being digested in my opinion. i don't remember ever looking at weekly or monthly RSIs for the week or 2 after an apple earnings report, it was usually meaningless in the post earnings period especially if there was a large move.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 7:31pm sp001
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pailin those past RSIs that

pailin those past RSIs that went above 80 with subsequent crash, do u remember if they were associated with any massive change in information or simply technically driven?

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 8:38pm
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Crazy crazy crazy day. I'm

Crazy crazy crazy day. I'm just in awe watching gold. I think Pailin nailed it: gold is the April silver. I mean, you can't get up to take a crap without it going up another ten bucks.

And then there are the miners. I think it is safe to say after the last two days that the miners are at least de-coupling from the broader market. GDX up nearly 3%; S&P down 4.5%.

Anyway, on a day like today with silver, gold, and the miners all going hoopie, we all win. How many times can we say that?

And one more thing: after a series of rather crappy earnings reports (i.e., GG, HL, CDE, SLW, etc) here is one gold miner that shot a load, JAG. Check out the earnings this evening. It's one of my go-to trades. Every once in a while you catch a good ride. Today, JAG became a fiat-making machine.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 8:43pm
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Today I sold 2 gold contracts eventually

One I dropped waay too early at $1770 still thinking that was resistance and it would pull back. Then I sold my "hold" one at $1812 - just could not resist. What a ride this has been. I was in too many commodities and got killed when we first were hit, then came back since the downgrade and doubled my money. Wheeee what a ride! Gut wrenching and exhilarating at the same time.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 8:54pm Vypuero
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the difference btwn gold now

the difference btwn gold now and silver then was that there was no significant macro news during silver rise. there is a ton of important news right now and i think gold will continue to follow the news. but i don't believe it with enough strength to be able to truly get in now. it hugged the 150 ma 15 minute interval on tuesday twice and once today. if it touches it again i may consider getting back in. btw the 150 ma 15 minute is currently at about 1764. hard to even comprehend the strength of the move...the 15 min chart from sunday onwards looks like an annual daily chart

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 9:01pm sp001
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Excellent question.   FYI,

Excellent question.

FYI, the MS gold guy was on CNBS, talking about his $2500 call, and he came right out and said that in this situation, you simply have to throw out RSI, MACD, etc (those were his exact words), because gold is now serving the same fxn that the bond vigilantes used to. That is, the price of gold is a direct counterweight/reflection to the fiscal and monetary storms that are raging.

Having reported that, I hasten to point out that this can also be heard as the "crazy talk" that appears at all peaks, like price/eyeball ratios, etc. Epstein was very sanguine, simply pointing out that the current price as a long entry point was crazy risky.

We'll see--the price will tell us.

P.S. SI is back! (I hope...)

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 9:22pm Rico
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interesting article

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 9:26pm
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@sp

I wasn't doing gold in 2006 so I don't know what the macro story was at the time, too busy working the art markets then. 2008 was 2008 everything you've heard, etc. Commodities were dumped for liquidity riding into the general destruction through the summer and fall. Some fools out there though we washed all the bad out of the system then. Right. Those of us in the metal trade knew that was BS and bought every dip. I wasn't one of them, didn't get enlightened until later, but the good news is I wasn't in equities either, was still working the art game :)

I don't think any of that helps answer your questions, but I feel your pain too, sold my paper gold too early and don't want to overpay to get back in at the likely top. Just can't take the risk, like was Epstein said about it tonight and agree. For me it's easy enough, there's other trades to play (silver), I'd only be really bummed if I didn't have any physical gold (of course never enough) and prices never really came down again. I DCA into physical every month, so I'd like a little dip around the 1st just for fun, but I don't really care either way.

If margin hike gold money shifts to silver...well that's all the better since I'm pretty heavy into paper silver right now and would love to see 67. Should be intersting to see what effect the margin hike has on latecomers tomorrow at COMEX. Maybe not much? So far nothing except the normal top end pressure on a new high.

I do see that we last bounced of the 5min 200 MA at 1762. Maybe that's testable support or at least something to watch? It's now at 1780, I'd expect to wake up seeing it tested between 3-6 am. G'night all...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 9:33pm
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2 much risk 4 me

I am so happy that everyone is back to making good money. No idea where things are going and when there will be a reversal.

I am out of silver as I fear what might happen to silver when gold decides to reverse. You know it will go down twice as fast as it went up. I am happy with profits in paper gold positions and will be completely out of all paper tomorrow morning too. That means it will probably keep on trucking right up to $2,000. Don't care how much higher we go. Been a great ride. And I own physical.

I want to start concentrating on catching the bottom of SPY. 1000 on the ES (S&P 500)? Will I get a chance to buy SPY at 96? I can't find a good ten year chart that will let me put ma on it. I did find a dow 30 and interesting that on a weekly chart, the low today stopped right around the 200 weekly ma. Anybody got any thoughts?

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 9:40pm sp001
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SP - pretty amazing article there

When a billionaire like Mark Cuban starts deciding there is a problem in the market... something has to change here.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 9:48pm Vypuero
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Vypuero wrote: One I dropped

Vypuero wrote:

One I dropped waay too early at $1770 still thinking that was resistance and it would pull back. Then I sold my "hold" one at $1812 - just could not resist. What a ride this has been. I was in too many commodities and got killed when we first were hit, then came back since the downgrade and doubled my money. Wheeee what a ride! Gut wrenching and exhilarating at the same time.

Can I ask where you bought them ??

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 10:01pm atlee
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Dow

atlee - I'll venture a guess that the Dow should correct back to 9600 - 9800. I think by then everybody but us will be screaming for Bernankster to launch QE3, and he will.

All of you who sold off paper gold today just might be patting yourselves on the back tomorrow for good timing. Margin hike take effect at close tomorrow. If so, then congratulations. If not, then I hope you're happy with your profits and not too concerned about any money you may have left on the table, especially in light of the increased risk.

Should be a mighty interesting day for silver tomorrow. I've got puts to back my calls. Let's roll bitchez.

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 10:02pm
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Bought

It is kind of confusing because when you buy multiple contracts and sell multiples, they don't always cancel by date, instead you keep the one most "in the money" so reality is:

$1645 gold went to $1745 sold

bought back at $1732, sold again at $1812

Now I just got back in at $1,800

The other was a quick trade - buy at $1745 sell at $1770

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 10:04pm
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Never thought I would go for $1,800 buy but

Hoping for a quick turn-around here. Silver and Gold just took some hits but not too bad. Meanwhile in compensation my Oil and Copper are recovering.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 10:10pm
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No Soup for you

Mark Cuban was a degenerate trader. Now he is respectable and wants to close the door. No soup for you. You should only be allowed to make money by buying stocks and holding them for 5 years?!? Right Mark.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 10:18pm atlee
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Mark Cuban @ Atlee.

He is sketchy at best. His arrogance will be his demise.

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 10:56pm atlee
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atlee

I got nuthin for you on real technicals, but I'm thinking that, based on poetic justice, the guys on Wall Street are going to get a chance to dust off their old "Dow 10,000" hats one more time. Not sure what I'll do then, but it will be must see TV.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.