Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 5:02pm
redwood
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Best wishes to everyone at

Best wishes to everyone at the corner for avery healthy and prosperous new year, in that order of importance. Stay safe, stay cool and above all enjoy the daily riches of life not counted in dollars.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 8:51pm
redwood
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Don't know if many remember

Don't know if many remember from last early January, but prices rocketed on Jan. 3 and then plummeted on one day. Now we have prices moving up on a non trading day. Yes, I know past doesn't predict future, but just thought I'd mention it.

Edit: Sorry didn't rocket, just plummeted.

Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 4:17am
Lord Henry
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Trying to examine today's silver

Chart and look for signs of a breakout leading to a new/resumed

bull market makes as much sense as using a telescope to look for

Angels.

In my opinion, we arent in a clear bull market until $50 is cleanly

taken out. Until then, any sequence of numbers (eg 15, 29, 22, 25,

19, 27 then 23) is possible - ad infinitum - and all meaningless. Until

the bubblemakers flick the switch nothing will ever happen.

The only alternative that would make silver an interesting place to

be would be an exponential (bitcoin style) breakout. If this took place

it would be easily recognisable and there would be ample opportunity

for everyone here to get on board (imo).

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 7:46am
csquared13
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congrats to BH and anyone

congrats to BH and anyone else short WTI. that be some good price swing navigatin' there.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 7:53am
Rico
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@LH, that's a good way to put

@LH, that's a good way to put it. Think about sharing that over on Pain Street--the thinking over there is more confused than ever.

Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 9:03am
Lord Henry
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Thanks Rico

Although miners have been a disaster, they probably wont be allowed

to fall into extinction . Thats a bit too counter-productive (imo). The only

'good' thing about suffering years of disappointment with them, is that

when they do (eventually) rise - we'll hopefully have the tenacity to hold

them for a very substantial win . Thats assuming of course, that the bubble

ever gets blown. (who knows on that one ?)

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 9:30am (Reply to #38009)
Rico
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csquared13 wrote:congrats to

csquared13 wrote:

congrats to BH and anyone else short WTI. that be some good price swing navigatin' there.

Well, with me, in this case, it's only TA in a loose sense--more of an 'intuitive' price channel (same with PMs), that comes from watching the action, day after day. >$100 just seems high, given the overall situation in the market, the world, etc. The actual chart usually gives decent confirmation, but certainly not always.

I realize how completely vapid and unhelpful the above is!

P.S. So far this AM, on the commodities sites, every bit of price action has been blamed on the 4K 'miss' on the unemployment number--that's.four.thousand.people...in a country of 330M--let that sink in, and then ask yourself if ANY of that shit is worth taking seriously...

Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 10:27am (Reply to #38012)
csquared13
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Rico wrote:csquared13

Rico wrote:
csquared13 wrote:

congrats to BH and anyone else short WTI. that be some good price swing navigatin' there.

Well, with me, in this case, it's only TA in a loose sense--more of an 'intuitive' price channel (same with PMs), that comes from watching the action, day after day. >$100 just seems high, given the overall situation in the market, the world, etc. The actual chart usually gives decent confirmation, but certainly not always.

I realize how completely vapid and unhelpful the above is!

P.S. So far this AM, on the commodities sites, every bit of price action has been blamed on the 4K 'miss' on the unemployment number--that's.four.thousand.people...in a country of 330M--let that sink in, and then ask yourself if ANY of that shit is worth taking seriously...

no worries..it actually does make sense, i think..buy low sell high is never absolute? it is always relative to recent or past swings. (ex: April 2013 WTI swing lows around $86-$87ish are "low" but only relative to prior swing lows...obviously not relative to historical lows)

is this what you mean?

EDIT: Looks like I was stopped out of my UCO longs. While I hoped for more out of this trade, I won't complain. Bought 29.20 Initial Stop 28.80 and trailing stop executed at 30.73 for 4.78R

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 10:50am (Reply to #38013)
Rico
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csquared13 wrote: Bought

csquared13 wrote:

Bought 29.20 Initial Stop 28.80 and trailing stop executed at 30.73 for 4.78R

Excellento!

Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 1:16pm (Reply to #38009)
BlackHawk
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Trying to Center

Thanks for the words of encouragement CS13. And rico, I think your comment is spot on. The good thing about trading oil is that is swings a lot within a fairly defined range. The bad thing is that it swings a lot and sometimes rips out of the range. Guess I'll try to follow the pivots again this year. Maybe go long WTI again when this morning's move to $96.5-ish breaks.

Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 1:50pm
Art Lomax
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Good morning PTC. Wishing

Good morning PTC. Wishing everyone a happy and prosperous new year.

Grain getting killed this morning. Not really surprised but wasn't expecting beans down 30c. Excellent rains in SA. Also soymeal (and beans) lower due to lower DDG prices from China GMO rejections.

Corn started out a little higher due to fund rebalancing and maybe some bean/corn spreading, but turned down with beans and wheat sharply lower.

Nothing bullish with the grain fundamentals for this year. Will be a sell the rally type of market. Just wanted to kick the year off with a quick post.

Thanks all for the great commnetary.

Thu, Jan 2, 2014 - 3:14pm
Rico
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Art, what is the relationship

Art, what is the relationship (if any) between soybeans and soybean oil? I find their price movements in relation to one another to be mystifying.

Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 12:23am (Reply to #38000)
madcow
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Big Buffalo wrote:We'll see

Big Buffalo wrote:

We'll see an $18 handle within the next couple trading days.

USD/JPY and EUR/USD: love the channels.

Finally, for those that like medical marjuana, check out MDBX (Medbox), went crazy the last 3 days with a little pull back this mid-morning. I'll like it again at $12.00 ish.

Ive been looking to get into the medical/regular marjuana stockies for a while now. Mostly just still building cash before I dip in, thanks for the lil tidbit of info there. Too bad i slacked too long and missed getting into everything pre-CO

There is going to be big money there once the market opens up (in real legal terms on a broader/national scale), of course most of that will probably be in owning a straight retailer but still!

Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 12:28am
Art Lomax
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Soybeans

Rico,

You’ve got a lot of variables going on in the soybean complex and I certainly don’t understand it all, but I think the answer to your question is that the demand for the soy products (soyoil and soymeal) are not always in step. Like the crack spread in crude oil, soybeans have a crush spread. You crush a 60 pound bushels of beans and get about 11 pounds of oil and 48 pounds of meal. The difference in the value of the oil and meal and a bushel of beans is the crush margin for the processor. Right now meal is the driver of the crush. They crush enough beans to satisfy meal demand and end up with too much oil.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/gx_gr211.txt

Soyoil price was in decline last year with meal steady and in an uptrend all fall until recently. I think the oil decline was due to larger harvests of competing veg oils like rapeseed and sunflower. Also, FDA has said partially hydrogenated veg oil (trans fats) is not safe in processed food. Another big use of soyoil is for biodiesel, and I believe biodiesel usage was up last fall, but obviously not enough to help the price of soyoil. One factor may be the EPA proposing to reduce the biofuel target for 2014 by 16% if I recall correctly.

The meal market has been strong all last fall as it is the main protein source in animal feed. Meal is down with beans the last couple of days, one factor being our exported DDGs being rejected in China due to GMO issues. A gene from an unapproved variety of corn is showing up in US corn and DDGs (dried distillers grain) in Chinese imports. China is rejecting these shipments. This is a major market for the US as China takes about 15% of our DDGs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-26/china-s-soybean-demand-may-rise-amid-scrutiny-of-ddgs-imports.html

The thought is that more DDGs stay in the US, and compete against soymeal as an alternative protein source. This could reduce demand for US soymeal, reduce the crush, which would add to the US soybean carryout and push bean prices lower.

Sorry for being a little long winded here, this may be more than you wanted, but you can see there are many factors in play in the soybean complex. We don’t always have all the info the big ABC exporters have (ADM, Bunge Cargill). And government involvement is also a factor. I don’t believe for a minute China is concerned about unapproved GMO’s in their feed, but they will use it as a reason to reject unwanted product or negotiate a lower price.

Improving weather in South America pressuring the bean complex as the market is now expecting big yields on expanded acres. The world has gone from a food crisis to an abundance of grain in a years time.

Thanks all and now back to our metal and crude trading.

Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 4:48am
csquared13
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thanks for the pivots BH. sat

thanks for the pivots BH. sat on my hands..don't want to over-trade. easy for me to get trigger happy given the new year and that's just asking for trouble

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 6:09am
Deluxe186
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JBLU p/e-22 forward p/e -12

JBLU p/e-22 forward p/e -12 probs gonna pull the trigger on the march 9 options. They report jan 27th delta and southwest report 5 days before them so thats a pretty good litmus test for the holiday earnings season if you should need to bail. Holding above its ichmikuku cloud deltas touch its ichimoracco cloud and luv i think is also holding above its itchy cloujd. I think this winter should be fairly strong with holiday travel and such.

Jimmy Rickards made a really good point about gdp in one of his last interviews that we also had a 4% gdp print in the beginning of 2011 and it slowed way down.

Jan is historically the strongest month of the dollar too just something to keep in mind.

To anyone in the northeast have fun shoveling today. I'm getting hammered right now.

Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 7:36am
Rico
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Art, that was great--thanks!

Art, that was great--thanks!

Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 7:37am (Reply to #38021)
why do I even bother
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Ambrose Evans Pritchard

AEP is a bit of a loose cannon and should not be taken too seriously; he is prone to hyperbole and in love with sensational headlines: try this one from April 2012, for instance (since when the Chinese residential property market is up 22%) - https://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100016724/c...

note the use of the word "forever" - would any sane commentator ever hold themselves hostage to such an open-ended prediction?

'Free Advice Is Worth Every Penny'
Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 8:30am
HappyNow
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Thanks Art

Your contributions from market knowledge are valued.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Fri, Jan 3, 2014 - 10:22am
csquared13
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wonder what the crude

wonder what the crude inventory numbers will look like given the action yesterday. BH, maybe those tankers off the coast that you mentioned will bring supply up this week.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota