Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:03am
mje173
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welp

I've taken a short position against gold. Looking at spot price to be around 1160 before I close it out.

Sup.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:31am
csquared13
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Just got an In Stock

Just got an In Stock Notification via e-mail...been quite a while since these were available

100 oz. Engelhard Silver Bar .999 Fine

Only $1.49 per oz over spot!In Stock, Ready to Ship!

Each 100 oz. Engelhard Silver Bar contains 100 troy ounces of .999 fine pure silver bullion. Engelhard ... read more

Unit Price:$2,078.56 Add to My Cart Free Priority 2-Day Shipping & Insurance on all U.S. orders over $7,500 Bank Wire & Credit Card Orders typically ship within 2-4 Business Days Product Details - Customer Reviews - Live Chat - Our Buy Price
“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 1:07pm csquared13
pailin
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Yup, got the e-mail as well.

Yup, got the e-mail as well. Premium not tempting :)

csquared13 wrote:

Just got an In Stock Notification via e-mail...been quite a while since these were available

100 oz. Engelhard Silver Bar .999 Fine

Only $1.49 per oz over spot!In Stock, Ready to Ship!

Each 100 oz. Engelhard Silver Bar contains 100 troy ounces of .999 fine pure silver bullion. Engelhard ... read more

Unit Price:$2,078.56 Add to My Cart Free Priority 2-Day Shipping & Insurance on all U.S. orders over $7,500 Bank Wire & Credit Card Orders typically ship within 2-4 Business Days Product Details - Customer Reviews - Live Chat - Our Buy Price
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 3:17pm Deluxe186
Gold Nugget
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Deluxe186 wrote: Just a

Deluxe186 wrote:

Just a slight change of plan. The vix options in uvxy and vxx roll on friday so it would take a massive spike higher with a monthly roll. I'm just going for a straddle. Slv puts. Agq calls. volatility is skewed in your favor if you do it like this. P.S. has anyone looked 2 years out on agq options all I can say is holy shit there cheap. Also pray we have a taper tantrum because chinese gdp comes out sunday night. Bears would have quite the few days!

how can i look up the prices on the options.

i was thinking the same thing. with gold so low and the fact that it will come off the bottom and race upward pretty fast;. well i expect it will. that gold could rally to big prices in 2 years or more. the options might be the way to get rich while enjoying oneself on the beach.

\also maybe setting up some more complex i will call them spreads is probably what the professionals are doing. lock in those profits that will come when this whale boat turns around. full steam ahead to the upside. no way is this going to linger at depression prices. gold & silver are way too cheap and below production costs. this is ridiculous.

smart people have to be setting up no lose positions here.

now if anyone finds someone who knows how to do that. drag them over here or give us the url to read up on it. for me i am 2 dumb to figure it out. but i just know it is being done by the big boyz.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 4:03pm Gold Nugget
rtabit
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Gold Nugget wrote: the

Gold Nugget wrote:

the options might be the way to get rich while enjoying oneself on the beach.

Ha, I think you should read this book, I just bought it yesterday, only $22, I don't really know much about options, book is supposed to teach conservative (less risky) way to trade options, has a good review from this blog and first edition of book on Amazon has good amount of good reviews.

https://readingthemarkets.blogspot.com/2013/07/wolfinger-rookies-guide-to-options-2d-ed.html

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0988843919/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 4:21pm
Deluxe186
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AGQ&m=2015-01

Thats as far out as the market allows. Are you talking about covered calls or options strategies? There are boundless books about them. That said king world news use to have ben hinde capital on all the time. He nailed almost every god damn thing. Except in spring 2012 he thought we were headed for a break out. He think's china's in big trouble per his last note. https://www.hindecapital.com/blog/. I wish he'd reappear on kwn but I'm guessing he doesn't like their snake oil sales products. Who would have guessed. Maybe I'm jumping the gun on these options but this market is so screwed up who knows. All I know is I need silver to break down or up hard tomorrow. I was up and down on both positions today so we'll see what bernake says. But 10 grand on a 2 year option for a rediculous return. I know two things will happen the fed will print more in the coming year and china is going to announce at some point ther new gold holdings and both those things are so bullish for the pm's. I'm hoping for a breakdown now. Side note someone a couple days ago sold naked 500k of vxx 27 options so don't expect much from this market through the summer. They were august call options. Serious risk unless you know what your doing and judging by what vxx has done smart man especially with the roll on friday.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 4:48pm
pailin
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How can you be as awesome as

How can you be as awesome as Bernank, yet every time you speak in public sound like you just got caught (by mom) masturbating?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 6:59pm
Rico
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Anybody know what's going on?

Anybody know what's going on?

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 7:10pm
Deluxe186
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Anyone who followed me yay!

Anyone who followed me yay! One problem with this happening. The abortion that is the chinese gdp sunday night.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 9:37pm
redwood
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Hey Deluxe

Thanks for all your posts recently. Interesting movement in the metals but already there's some degradation. Edit: 9:30 - not yet I too was of two minds today, at first convinced metals would decline hard, but then started to waffle, don't know why and finally came down on the other side.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:18pm
Deluxe186
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Redwood, Gun to head I

Redwood, Gun to head I thought we were going lower. But I just thought it was a fool hardy bet. I think things like this where things will break one way or another and everyone knows it are perfect straddle opps where you can catch 10 baggers on 1 side and when you average it out its a 5 bagger. But it's still gambling none the less. I hate things like this now because when do I sell the agq options expire thursday but sunday night atleast to me is a big if. China data comes out super weak and down we go again. Next two days though someones losing their yacht house and country club membership. I'm still thinking about buying yang (ying is the 3x bull so careful) options for sunday. I've hit 4 option bets in a row and I have my doubts how long I can go.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:32pm
Deluxe186
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Also I forget who said this

Also I forget who said this but I remember laughing about it. It was somewhere in shankystechblog comments once. Treat options like the prostitutes they are if you made a sizable gain take it, get in, get off, get out.

My guess is they run the stops at 1300 tomorrow.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:34pm Deluxe186
redwood
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Well there was just one small

Well there was just one small item that kept me second guessing. The silver graph since the upturn June 27 was not convincing of an imminent decline. The gold graph was very ambiguous. At the worst I thought we would go sideways for a while. Well if tonight continues I think we are going to see continued upward movement at least until early August. Ilya (sorry he has left) so much as predicted that metals would rise this month as well. But in the end one never knows and we still won't know till the end of the week. Then there is the Chinese report, though I haven't looked at that yet. I think if there is a strong short squeeze here though don't know how much it will be affected by the Chinese data. Manipulation in the end tends to override or give ulterior post hoc explanations for where those in charge want the charts to be it seems.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:43pm
redwood
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one other thing

Did you notice how the HUI shot straight up seconds BEFORE 2:00pm? Don't know where I read it, maybe some one at this corner, but there is a select group who get the heads up about price movement before anyone else and enter their orders literally seconds before. Usually a good tell. That settled my indecision right there.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:49pm
Deluxe186
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How far do we take it though

How far do we take it though 24, 25? 1400? or is this a trend reversal. Where in the hell in silverwealth when you need his ass.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 10:55pm
Deluxe186
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That may have been just an

That may have been just an algo running wild. I was watching gs and those vampire squids. That stock has been gapping up like crazy of late that was also something running through my mind. So many doubts so many voices in my head who to believe.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 11:33pm Deluxe186
Gold Nugget
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GAMBLING

Deluxe186 wrote:

I think things like this where things will break one way or another and everyone knows it are perfect straddle opps where you can catch 10 baggers on 1 side and when you average it out its a 5 bagger. But it's still gambling none the less. I hate things like this now

GAMBLING. NO WAY. THAT IS PICKING MONEY OFF TREES. IT IS TAKING CANDY FROM BABIES. IT IS CALLED A SURE THING. GUARANTEED 5X IS NOT GAMBLING TO ME. I CALL IT A ROYAL FLUSH.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Thu, Jul 11, 2013 - 12:53am
Deluxe186
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(No subject)

Jay Larson Stand-Up 05/06/13
Thu, Jul 11, 2013 - 1:37am
Deluxe186
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I'm done for a while after this

These aren't my words but this is about how I feel. A comment on trader dan's web site and its spot on, flawless, comical, and cyncially wonderful

Well it looks obvious that Ben Bernanke is not about to relinquish his crown as "The Greatest of All Time" to Draghi or Uncle Abe or anyone else.

Now that he has successfully destroyed the price of the CRB Index, he can afford to cut the market participants some slack and induce a little bit of "Risk On" for awhile in order to revive the bond market out of its slump.

Yep, you heard that right, bonds are now considered a "Risk" asset.

So now we are on our way to Dow 16,000 or 18,000, a 10-yr. yield back down to 1.8%, and Gold will probably trade right up to the $1,625 resistance area where Jim Sinclair's "Angels" are hanging out at the Battered Women's Shelter.

Shortly thereafter, Bernanke will open his Pie Hole and start flapping his gums about "Fed Mandate of Price Stability" and tank the CRB index again when things get too frothy.

And when I mean frothy, I mean AMZN at $350, PCLN at $1,000, and Panera Bread, Starbucks, and Whole Foods at preposterous highs with P/E ratios approaching 70 and crude oil at $135.

Then The Bernank will step on the emergency brake via mere "words" and the Cartel will once again make a huge fortune shorting gold again from $1,625 to who knows how low it will go the next time.

Thu, Jul 11, 2013 - 4:54am
pailin
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EUR

Man that was some kind of spike at 7pm last night. I refrained from commenting then to see how things held overnight, they often fade. And they have, but not all that much. Dollar in selloff for now.

Deluxe your suggested scenario sounds fine except that sometimes the big boys don't get what they want. So maybe, maybe not this time? I'd say that the lows for this year are in at 1180 and 18.20. Next year is another thing and I hope ya'll play the seasonals, if you've been paying attention 2013 has been educational :)

If the "trust me" system still exists next spring, maybe I'll re-open my forex to short metals again...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey