Pailin's Trading Corner

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Fri, Jul 5, 2013 - 9:05am
Rico
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1)  Long GC and ZB on the

1) Long GC and ZB on the news, for a swing--we'll see

2) Waiting for market open to go long SCO. Hope crude stays up until then, but may already be fading, in which case I'll reassess

Fri, Jul 5, 2013 - 10:41am
Lord Henry
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Metals Fading,

Silver a smokey-grey silhouette. Tempted to

lighten USDJPY, but that often turns out

regrettable, so going lightly long Cable (GBP

USD) instead - more likely to bounce than

metal. Should have learnt by now : metal sinks.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Fri, Jul 5, 2013 - 11:48am
Deluxe186
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This is all bullish for the

This is all bullish for the metals over medium term gives bernake cover to increase the size of qe. Does anyone else think gbpusd just started a new downtrend?

Fri, Jul 5, 2013 - 12:34pm
Lord Henry
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@ Deluxe 186

You could easily be right , but GBP down 8 cents in

pretty short order. Also to be considered is thanks to

the thriftiness (hahahaha) of previous governments,

the UK only about a trill or so underwater. Cant see

why we shouldnt make a run at 3 T (what frickin difference

does it make anyway ) ?

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Fri, Jul 5, 2013 - 1:54pm Rico
Art Lomax
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Rico, the markets seem to

Rico, the markets seem to agree with your assessment on the crops. CZ down 80c since June 19, SX down $1.04 since June 7.

Corn should hold here until pollination time, key time is week of July 21. Any threat of heat during pollination and corn will rally. Key time for soybeans will be August.

Sun, Jul 7, 2013 - 11:30am
Deluxe186
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http://screwtapefiles.blogspo

https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2013/07/figured-it-out.html

"Safe havens bonds are now firmly out of favor with the view that tapering of the bond buying program of the Fed (QE4) will now begin as early as September of this year. Rising interest rates are working to bring the US Dollar into increasing favor among global investors as most countries out there with major currencies are no where near to a period of rising interest rates.

It does appear that we are going to be entering a period of rising stocks, rising interest rates and a rising Dollar, all at the same time.

Pretty remarkable isn't it considering that trillions of those self-same dollars have been created by the Fed over the last few years? It just goes to show that demand for the US currency is phenomenal mainly because demand for the other major currencies is rotten!"

From trader dan largely agrees with my views ecb and gb gave them cover to increase it in sept or dec. Then china will come out with even more bullish annoncement of how the imported 4000 tons.

I'm buying aug puts on silver monday were going to see new lows this summer.

Sun, Jul 7, 2013 - 4:03pm
Lord Henry
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TD probably right Deluxe

But wasnt it strong Dollar that allegedly brought down

stocks in 08 ? If TD is right, and market starts pricing in

tapering during July/ August - you can just play it with

currencies of course and avoid stocks, commodities and

certainly metals.

Looking at Netdania NZDUSD monthly, perhaps we

can assume TD expects an emerging weak (sorry $6 no offence)

NZD to do what it did in 08/09. NZD has a bit of meat on its

bones now, but is generally considered 'risk-on' by the market,

due to possible foot & mouth disease, that sort of thing (imo.)

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Sun, Jul 7, 2013 - 4:32pm
Deluxe186
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I'm with armstrong I think we

I'm with armstrong I think we put in a low before the 2nd week of august.

Sun, Jul 7, 2013 - 8:15pm
sixdollarsilver
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None taken m'lord

Foot in mouth is definitely an issue down here at the moment. Why the Pacific Peso is of any interest to anyone other than those of us who have to pay our bills in it, constantly baffles me. IMO it is a yield/risk-on play no more no less. Rising US interest rates will murder the poor little flightless bird... again.

I'm practicing buying. Just got some Euro, Long Bonds, Au and Ag. I don't feel hugely confident about any of them, but they are all throwing off good RSI/Stochastic signals over all time frames. They could do this for some time of course (and/or throw better signals), which is why they have relatively short leashes.

I'm planning on being quite active with small positions to get a good feel for where momentum is headed next in these four instruments.

The shortest day is behind us!

Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 4:36am
sixdollarsilver
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A full 8 hours have passed.

Well, don't mind if I do...

Cashed out of the Long Bond and half of the Euro (meh). Going to let the little metal positions ride, to my chagrin no doubt. Anyone looked at the weekly and monthly for the PMs lately? Would love to get your take on it, rtabit .

July 12 at 10:53 NZST, July 23 for the big moon, August something for some reason. So many time specific prognostications these days. C'mon SW, tell it like it is! Preferably with ample metaphor :)

Happy holidays you lot.

Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 8:41am
Mr. Natural
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Turk trade update

https://www.fgmr.com/trading-current-positions.html

I guess he got tired of waiting for his 1484 gold and 24.45 silver entries.

GLTA

Use the right tool for the job
Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 11:45am
Deluxe186
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fomc minutes wens....metals

fomc minutes wens....metals will take it to the chin

Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 1:08pm Gold Nugget
rtabit
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Gold Nugget wrote:OK I

Gold Nugget wrote:
OK I checked them both. they work. where did you find these. url would be best are there more listed for free download???? he keeps pumping out things like every few days. it is impossible to keep up with the sales he does of ideas. I think a lot are simply from computer runs. also they seem to have merit but also unless one is 100% dedicated to these computer runs they seem terrible difficult to accomplish unless you put out tons of orders to fill just a few. an awful lot of work. I bought a few of his reports and books and honestly I think they were a total waste of money just my opinion.

I don't remember where I found it, I use https://silverreader.com/ RSS reader where I have many blogs set up to scan unread posts, I'm guessing someone on my blog list blogged about it, I can't think of any others I've seen off the top of my head (that post the formula for what they are doing). This https://www.thewholestreet.com/ is similar and includes some of the same blogs I follow. I'm sure most if not all are computer generated signals, I don't see why they wouldn't be, from the little I've read the signals seem to have specific rules.

Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 2:57pm
Deluxe186
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and the gofo rates are

and the gofo rates are negative to 3 months out.

https://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&show=2013

Lease rates on silver are negative up to a year.

Every time this happened fireworks went off.

Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 4:05pm
Lord Henry
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You know the other type of stocks....

yes, that's right, the medieval type...

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 4:30pm
Lord Henry
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Well, I have to admit that the UK

Almost certainly does have some of the most worthwhile

politicians in the West. A lot of talk in Parliament about

jailing banksters ......just talk of course - but it's a step in

the right direction. What I really look forward to is the

return of the old wooden 'stocks', and the day that members

of the public are cordially invited to throw items of rotting

fruit and vegetables at failed ex- prime ministers etc....

I think if Labour ever did get voted back in, I'd just 'retire'

there and then - on reasons of principal as much as anything.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 4:37pm
pailin
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FDIC tomorrow

Higher capital requirements for banks...beginning of the (next) end?

Ha ha.

Hope so.

(but unlikely)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jul 9, 2013 - 3:30am
sixdollarsilver
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Good enough for me

Closed all longs. I'll wait for better signals on the 1 and 4 hourly from here.

Very encouraging. If you have the time and the inclination, take a look at those 1976 analogy charts everyone was posting a few weeks back and shift the present chart a little to the left...

Anything can happen. An official SW lament.

Tue, Jul 9, 2013 - 10:40pm
Deluxe186
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Doubt anyone cares but

Doubt anyone cares but tomorrow morning I'll be going short slv july atm options long agq july atm option and long july uvxy option. I think we'll get a repeat of fomc meeting spy at a pretty important level here and all they did on july 5th was gun the stops on low volume. I also think it speaks volumes that bernake would have a sudden "speech" tomorrow right after fed minutes release. Watch the bonds tomorrow for a tell I'd say. Either market rallies and takes the metals with it or we go down hard again and KRE the regional banks have been selling off so it should be interesting monday morning.

Wed, Jul 10, 2013 - 4:43am
Deluxe186
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Just a slight change of plan.

Just a slight change of plan. The vix options in uvxy and vxx roll on friday so it would take a massive spike higher with a monthly roll. I'm just going for a straddle. Slv puts. Agq calls. volatility is skewed in your favor if you do it like this. P.S. has anyone looked 2 years out on agq options all I can say is holy shit there cheap. Also pray we have a taper tantrum because chinese gdp comes out sunday night. Bears would have quite the few days!

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