Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 8:17pm (Reply to #34784)
Gold Nugget
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daveyboy wrote:At present I

daveyboy wrote:

At present I am about evens, well, maybe 5% down actually, in terms of profit/loss but given that I would say more than 40% of my capital has been tied up in silver, then yes it does seem like a lost opportunity and if it wasn't for the many trades I have made my profit/loss would look quite dire. I am still annoyed at myself for not selling at the moment where we had the pathetic climb following the full announcement of the cyprus theft but what can you do.

I am not about to sell my silver, but there is definitely a big opportunity cost being paid here both in terms of timing and a dormant return on investment.

Previous you said you lost a lot. now at much lower prices you lost nothing. or if you did not say it you gave the impression.

40% of $17,000 says you have about $42,000 to $43,000 as capital. This gets more rediculous with your every post.

You are going to have the distinction of being the ONLY person in my life to go onto IGNORE LIST. on all the web sites I have posted. no one has ever been IGNORE LISTED. and some were really bad. but I just hate lies. they are a thing with me. I seek the TRUTH. I now try to protect my mind from having lies come into my mind. Sorry about that Davey Boy but you are on the edge. It is so obvious you have not been telling the truth. and I hate that.

In fact just a few days ago you said you did not have money. Now you have $42,000 plus. which is it. are you broke or rich. hahaha.

Lying is an addiction like drugs and alcohol. the addict can not stop. But it can be done if one works at it hard enough.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 8:19pm
Deluxe186
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I leave for a couple of hours

I leave for a couple of hours and were talking about robbing each other....love this corner....blink is a bunch of horse shit its just another contrived gladwell novel. What pisses me off more than anything is christopher langan in his other book is a us citizen and he's born here and yet he's not president..... stupid society.

Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 8:34pm
Deluxe186
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its "strange" how this guy always gets it right

Probing for a Bottom in Gold By Mad Hedge Fund Trader on April 23, 2013 in Diary, Newsletter

Thanks to last week’s Armageddon type crash in gold prices, implied volatilities on options in the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) have rocketed to five-year highs. This is in sharp contrast to equity index option implieds, which are just a few percent above six year lows. Therefore, the deep in the money option strategy in the (GLD) is now vastly superior to alternatives found in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM).

This means that it is possible to strap on a call spread in (GLD) that is miles in the money with extremely low risk, and still earn a decent four-week return. That is the case with the SPDR Gold Trust Shares May, 2013 $125-$130 call spread. The (GLD) has to drop a further $8.11, or $81 in underlying gold terms over the next 19 trading days for you to lose money.

Coming on top of the previous $200 collapse in gold, a mathematician would describe this as a six standard deviation event. That is another way of saying that moves like this occur only once every 2,000 years. This is a probability that I am more than happy to bet against. Also, redemption in ETF (GLD) hit $2 billion last week, the largest on record, and has probably peaked.

I spent the weekend talking to my consulting clients at the central banks of China and Singapore. Although they are not allowed to disclose their exact plans in advance, using the standard code words they made it clear to me that they would be major buyers of the barbarous relic at $1,250 and below.

You can bet that at least a dozen other emerging market central banks will be joining them there. $1,250 in gold was a major upside breakout level on the way up that should provide solid support on the way down. That is why I am going with such a hefty 20% weighting. I am also taking a big bite of (GLD) because there are so few attractive risk/reward propositions in other asset classes at these lofty levels.

You have to go back nearly three and a half years to find new buyers with a cost basis lower than $1,250. That means we have probably flushed out all of the weak, short and medium term owners of gold with the recent melt down, and there is probably not much selling left to be seen.

There is also a ton of technical support that kicks in at the $1,250-$1,300 range. The bull market in gold ignited in 2001 at $255/ounce. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the $1,920 peak takes us back to $1,286. Focusing on a shorter time frame, a 50% drop from the most recent run that started at $750 in 2008 hits at $1,302. When you get this much technical congestion around the same price levels, they tend to hold.

This could be the trade that keeps on giving. If we really are putting in a long-term bottom for the yellow metal over $1,250, it could take several months for the cement to dry. That means we could strap on a new position every month, possibly until the end of the year. It will be like having a rich uncle that writes you a check every four weeks, much like shorting the Japanese yen was last year.

Gold is not dead, it is just resting. All of the long-term arguments in favor of gold still hold true. Those include, the desire of emerging market central banks to own a higher percentage of their reserves in gold, rising emerging market standards of living, the return of double digit inflation during a global economic boom in the 2020’s, and the preference of global central banks to print money until then. It also makes a nice Christmas present. So at some point, the barbarous relic should take another run at its old inflation adjusted high of $2,300 an ounce.

Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 8:36pm (Reply to #34787)
pailin
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Deluxe186 wrote: ....blink is

Deluxe186 wrote:

....blink is a bunch of horse shit its just another contrived gladwell novel.

I'll admit to having a weakness for Gladwell :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 8:45pm
moderator
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I don't stop by very often

I don't stop by very often because I know you all prefer to be left alone. It's your corner. Always has been and always will be.

Just wanted to congratulate...if that's the right term...Pailin et al for 2.5MM+ pageviews. Amazing.

Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 10:34pm
Gold1776
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Early Retirement

Just ran across this website, I thought many of you would find it interesting. I know Pailin would appreciate it:

https://earlyretirementextreme.com/about

Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 10:56pm (Reply to #34789)
Deluxe186
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He's an entertaining writer

He's an entertaining writer but thats all I really think of him.

Turd where's our ad revenue?

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 5:22am (Reply to #34791)
pailin
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Gold1776 wrote:Just ran

Gold1776 wrote:

Just ran across this website, I thought many of you would find it interesting. I know Pailin would appreciate it:

https://earlyretirementextreme.com/about

He's got the right idea (imo) but some of his assumptions about stocks and quant trading could be problematic...however a flexible mind will generally solve that...taking hits in stride, not dwelling on them, correcting course and moving forward. One of the big draws of this thing (early retirement) is being able to leap at opportunities that otherwise would be invisible (head buried in a cubicle, low profile so as not to get laid off) or impossible (no free time, no free cash). If that's sounds interesting, just learning and doing whatever strikes your fancy (while you're still young enough to do so), well...it is :)

His cost of living is lower than mine. Hmmm. Thanks for the link!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 5:26am
daveyboy
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I lost a lot of profit yes,

I lost a lot of profit yes, profit has been hammered,. surrendering gains is a loss. I am not sure why this would come as any kind of surprise in terms of the language

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 7:49am
pailin
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tulving

Most silver products back in stock or short delay (early May). Premiums still as high as before, buy prices have all moved up too (closing the gap). This tells me there is not enough coming in from wholesalers, so a bit more carrot (than stick) in buying from retail public.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 8:39am
redwood
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I was wondering yesterday why

I was wondering yesterday why there were such aggressive buying with dips. I guess this mornings prices answers that. Don't know if they'll hold but at this time of the day, ie. after 8:30 sideways action is starting to look entrenched.

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 9:12am
Rico
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Martin Armstrong says

Martin Armstrong says sideways action into next week is a dire prognostic sign.

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 11:42am
redwood
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Equilateral triangle on the

Equilateral triangle on the HUI breaking to the upside. But in my observation at this time of day will last till noon and then go back down until it picks up momentum again as it approaches 1:00 pm.

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 1:13pm (Reply to #34797)
Bum in the library...
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Rico wrote: Martin Armstrong

Rico wrote:

Martin Armstrong says sideways action into next week is a dire prognostic sign.

prognostic of what?
Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 1:27pm
Lord Henry
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@RW Tenses and other grammatical errors.

For centuries now I have tolerated chronic misuse and

even abuse of our wonderful language by the colonies.

I have been forced to consider whether or not I shall be

re-issuing licences to the countries concerned . My final

decision is that I will issue, but the worst abusers will have

to pay us the highest fees in order to have their licence renewed.

Starting at the bottom with the Australians, their monthly

fees for language usage will be increased to 50 million guineas.

All hail the King. Long live the King.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 1:52pm (Reply to #34799)
Rico
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Bum in the library...

Bum in the library... wrote:
Rico wrote:

Martin Armstrong says sideways action into next week is a dire prognostic sign.

prognostic of what?

Prognostic of dire.

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 2:05pm
redwood
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Miners not showing any

Miners not showing any intention of letting up. This pattern usually is strongest till 2:15pm approx., followed usually with selling till approx. 3:00pm. Though today the miners are indicating some strength in the metals which alters this picture potentially.

I'll be watching to see if there is the usual weekly reversals with jobless claims and GDP Thurs. and Friday. I hope so, otherwise agree with Rico, won't look good for next week.

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 3:58pm
csquared13
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Can anyone confirm that this

Can anyone confirm that this week's GDP numbers will, in fact, use the new calculation?

If so, I would lean towards PM's getting a pummeling tomorrow on news of "strong GDP number that shows a continued 'recovery' in the US economy." Then of course CNBC will say that gold is down on news of a strengthening US economy. Lol!

I'll hope that this keeps up through the summer...would love to score some sub-$22...lickin' my chops already!

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 4:02pm
redwood
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Nice burst on silver after

Nice burst on silver after the close.

Wed, Apr 24, 2013 - 4:06pm (Reply to #34803)
redwood
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Don't know about the

Don't know about the calculation, but whatever is used here are the projected numbers.

Released On 4/26/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q1:13

Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 0.4 % 3.1 % 2.3 % to 3.3 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.0 % 1.4 % 0.9 % to 1.8 %