Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 10:38am
Silverman
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Weekly silver stochastics still not oversold.

There's more room left to fall.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 11:06am
SilverWealth
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the old Rabbis

The old Rabbis are huddling low in their freezing cabins, a meeting of the elders it seems is underway, much debate amongst the wise ones concerning the question of Rabbi Turd Ben Shalom: what to do with the reprobate? Excommunication or death by fire?

Was Rabbi Turd ben Shalom not hired to lead the village out from its destitution and into the light? Was he not trusted as a hallowed priest of the soothsayers and the One given the gift of the Eye? It was easy to judge Rabbi Schlomo ben Turk and have his carcass hauled onto the dried sticks and smoked in burning flames. Turk jerkey fed the villagers over the last long winter previous and the primitives rejoiced in what little sustenance this fat old Rabbi had provided them; sour,tough strips of protein for the insufferably chilly nights.

but what to do with Rabbi Turd? Do they send him back again to his place packing cow dung bricks for the Spring construction? Or will it be an ignominious exile for him. The villagers whisper conspiracies in the cramped outhouses where dysentery abounds. "someone must pay,... this is my 15th movement today, all lost water and foul air, who will pay for my penury...?"

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 11:11am
Rico
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Ok, ok--party's over, move

Ok, ok--party's over, move along...now, long GC, and layering in to AGQ, a hundred at a time.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 11:43am
Strawboss
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Note to self...

Trading against the commercials as presented via the COT can be hazardous to your health...

I am off to sell some metal to double down on NUGT. Not a huge percentage of the stack - but, a portion.

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:06pm
redwood
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I also think the bottom is

I also think the bottom is in, not that I care. I think we've seen as much bleeding as we are going to see for the year. Perhaps now is the time to either sit on your hands or layer in. Tomorrow will be entertaining as usual for O/E. jmho.

As an aside, if you watch the tape long enough you can always see megaton shares being either bought or sold at critical junctures. These are either hedge funds with technology far beyond ours and/or inside trading or something else. It's become quite a reliable indicator of when the market will shift.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm
redwood
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Here's an example.  39500

Here's an example. 39500 shares of NUGT purchased when HUI was 419 and same number of shares sold when HUI hit 420.92. Now that was expected because it hit a well defined trendline, but this is why the small time investor is fighting goliath.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:24pm
rtabit
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AUY

Posted weekly yesterday, has overshot lower medium by a bit, not a problem yet in fork, on larger charts you give more leeway. Here is updated chart. https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/AUY/media/5e71918c-0...

On the daily I made trade yesterday based on the floating parallel line because it matched the weekly. Now close to hitting lower parallel. Currently have large order in at 16.30.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/AUY/media/d1f52931-d...

On the 240 I made small order today at 16.55 on the lower parallel. This is the chart I'm worried about most, if the weekly and daily fail your going to see it in the 240 first. Not sure what that big ass volume bar is on this chart is about, bad data, smart money getting out?

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/AUY/media/48ea6923-f...

Currently have no stop but am watching closely as only metal related trade I'm in and one of three total trades I'm in.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:43pm
rtabit
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Hope

GC weekly and monthly both hitting possible support. A little hope for those taking it on the chin.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Gold/media/9642e820-...

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Gold/media/ba790d04-...

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:44pm
Lord Henry
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@BH

When the dust settles, we should sit down quietly and talk

livestock, and the market implications for hogs and

cattle (if the grains continue to slide...) But, today is

a day for mourning and the copious consumption of alcohol.

This charming little ditty from Motorhead, entitled

'Bomber', sums up the day's proceedings quite aptly (imo).

<iframe width="960" height="720" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y2S9rwyQkJE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 1:29pm rtabit
redwood
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Same fork I've been looking

Same fork I've been looking at. If this doesn't provide support then are we going back pre 2008 to find another support line? If so, then I think we can forget about metals for a long time. I suppose it could go a bit further without disturbing the trend but not much.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 1:34pm
BlackHawk
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Is it time to short Oil?

What say you rico and csquared. I sold all my UCO yesterday.

Love you longer time, oil both up and down.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 1:53pm redwood
rtabit
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redwood wrote: Same fork I've

redwood wrote:

Same fork I've been looking at. If this doesn't provide support then are we going back pre 2008 to find another support line? If so, then I think we can forget about metals for a long time. I suppose it could go a bit further without disturbing the trend but not much.

I assume you mean weekly because monthly still has lots of room to fall. If it doesn't work the first thing I'd do is look for some floating parallel lines, this is long lasting fork with good validation, that trend line is not going to just go away. Next thing I'd do is look for some new forks, below is link to two possible forks in this chart I'm watching, neither currently has much if any validation. I wouldn't go back further in the weekly, the monthly already does that, you'd probably end up getting the same fork in both monthly and weekly, which is kind of pointless. Also want to watch out for bullish flush of that lower medium line, where we get a big spike lower but close is up close to medium line, if that happens I'd expect it next week or week after. Also this is a weekly chart, it could take a long time to play out, so it may take a long time before you can decide to forget about metals for a long time, but may only take a few weeks (at shortest) to declare that fork no longer valid.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Gold/media/d623b7ec-...

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 2:14pm
Corsair
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EXK

recall atlee saying EXK in 7's was good deal. got a small taste @ $7.72

rtabit, do you have support number for silver in one of your crystal forks?

"The closest we get to perfection is writing our resumes."
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 2:35pm Corsair
rtabit
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Corsair wrote: recall atlee

Corsair wrote:

recall atlee saying EXK in 7's was good deal. got a small taste @ $7.72

rtabit, do you have support number for silver in one of your crystal forks?

No, just monthly and weekly that I posted yesterday I think, all other forks I had are broken, haven't looked for new ones yet, just focusing on longer term charts for now until things settle down. Need SI to get up close to 30.80 to consider spike to be bullish flush on weekly, but that fork didn't have much validation anyways. Below is backup SI weekly fork I haven't looked at in a while, longer term fork, I guess makes a little sense to bounce there, but I wouldn't have expected it.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/621f4fd...

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 2:50pm
SSK
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Sweet Jesus, I am making

Sweet Jesus, I am making money off a miner trade. Hallefuckingluah!

200 MA was the buy on AUY and RGLD. Grabbed some NUGT at 9.37.

Holding ain't in the cards. Flipping is. Because until proven otherwise, this is a bait and switch.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 3:19pm
greatwarden
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Silver daily

Draw a trendline from Sep, 30 to Nov, 28 highs on silver daily.
Duplicate it and apply to Nov, 4 lows. You'll see that it fits nicely with action today.
Looks like a range, bullish flag or whatever you see.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 3:24pm
Strawboss
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Silver daily

On a Netdania daily silver chart, draw a line from the lows on June 27th, July 23rd and today.

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 3:31pm
SilverWealth
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turn date

A major Bradley Turn date is tomorrow. Maybe has to do with Solstice or something, I just thought Rico would want to know this.

Probably volatility tomorrow, which direction I cannot say.

Meanwhile the Rebbes are still huddling and discussing the matter of Rabbi Turd ben Shalom. Updates as their decisions are handed down from on high...

Silver has waved down into first possible bottoming zone, next one is 26 and then 22. No manner of entrail reading, KWNews quoting or COT reporting will help you. The Kingdom of God has arrived in judgment. Seek him in prayer and be humbled upon your knees all ye of the slide rule and the Fork lest you encourage his wrath and welcome suffering upon the Land.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 3:35pm
greatwarden
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Strawboss - Silver daily

I know. I have it plotted, but it has been violated. More than two closes below and it's over.

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 3:46pm
firstsilver
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Good AUY heads up, SSK

BOT some AUY at 16.32; got out a few minutes back at 16.63.

For those mentioning EXK, I've been accumulating that for a hold/core position, although I do trade a small portion of it. Didn't buy more today, but got some two days back at 7.97.

randomness