Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 12:59pm pailin
Eman Laer
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pailin wrote: Ever look in

pailin wrote:

Ever look in the mirror and ponder why nearly all (all?) your posts in PTC are negative and argumentative? Cuz you sure can kill a buzz...

Getting old for me at least...

Whether or not you appreciate my posts here is not my business.

No, I don't ponder why my posts are "negative". I do know that they're usually in response to other comments that I perceive as negative, if that helps you understand.

Not that it makes much difference, but I often speak for others in this thread who for whatever reason choose not to comment themselves. I know this from a few hat tips (see my previous post) and also from a few PMs where members have offered encouragement.

I swing trade by the seat of my pants, but I do make a little profit somehow. Any comments I make about my trades should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe as a contrarian indicator.
Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:01pm
redwood
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Rico:  regarding short

Rico: regarding short covering - referring to the complete assinine ascent of metals yesterday. The Gnome said nothing to account for it. I believe metals are back to where they were a few days ago (well a bit lower).

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:06pm
redwood
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Eman please stop.  In your

Eman please stop. In your face confrontations only serve to diminish you and don't further your cause. It doesn't matter ultimately whether you have legitimate reason to your point of view or not. It all rests on delivery and that's true for all of us here.

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:09pm
SilverWealth
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1410

1410 possible bottom in this cycle, if not then maybe 1396.

dip buying here in some issues. Not buying Silver yet, sold for small loss and will stand aside until I see an igniting candle. It could still trade down into 29s or lower imo.

I once dated Barbara Bain's daughter, this is my connection to Dobie Gillis. Bain's first t.v. gigue was on "the Many Lives of Dobie Gillis" way back when. Ultimately everyone in Hollywood is related to everyone else. Bob Denver died back in 05' and remains a strange cult figure to this day amongst slackers and Internet geeks.

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:14pm SilverWealth
redwood
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Ok you see my ignorance.  His

Ok you see my ignorance. His name was Bob Denver....that sounds more accurate. Who the hell is Barbara Bain?

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:17pm SilverWealth
pailin
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SilverWealth wrote: I once

SilverWealth wrote:

I once dated Barbara Bain's daughter, this is my connection to Dobie Gillis. Bain's first t.v. gigue was on "the Many Lives of Dobie Gillis" way back when. Ultimately everyone in Hollywood is related to everyone else. Bob Denver died back in 05' and remains a strange cult figure to this day amongst slackers and Internet geeks.

Dunno about daughter but Barbara Bain...nuthin' wrong with her at all :)

Coincidentally caught her second credit from 1959 a few weeks ago (Mike Hammer dvd).

Always found Denver to be just weird. But that's public Denver, I'm sure at-home Denver (like all of us) was something else.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:19pm
SilverWealth
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trading

covered small short in ES and now watching at this 1411 area for next move. Apparently we are in a 4th wave in the cycle which can be maddening with many mixed signals and confusion, certainly we have that on a regular basis over the last couple of weeks.

I put zero stock in news or analysis of news or anticipation of news. Often the result is the complete opposite.

some stuff I am watching that opened high today and is now sold off by the ES, goog,mnst,nflx,and some others. This is a daytrading market. Keeping positions very small and short time frame because reversals happen abruptly. Next stop down if 1410 fails is 1400 round number and then 1396 but who knows? Appl new lows and wherever aapl goes now so many will follow. Next level on aapl is 515 and then 505 maybe, it breaks 500 and looking at 475 which would mean ES would follow down as well at least to 1380 area and miners would follow down. IMO

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:37pm
SilverWealth
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Hurst cycle

Hurst time cycle has us bottoming in this time window around 13th, its a 10 and 20 day time window. We could easily bounce back up towards 1443 if selling exhausts.

other bottoming zones are 1401-1410 and then 1396. I will be looking on the long side from here on, could be wrong but so be it.

Miners are better scoped by a qualified proctologist.

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:43pm pailin
SilverWealth
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gossip

her daughter was a dancer turned actress, the father being Martin Landau. Barbara was a nice lady from what I can remember and was serious about her work as an actress and director of plays.

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 1:44pm SilverWealth
BlackHawk
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Buy the rumor

This rumor started circulating when Dobie Gillis was still in syndication. Funny in a shocking way.

"Bob Denver who played beatnik Maynard G. Krebs on THE MANY LOVES OF DOBIE GILLIS/CBS/1959-63 and first mate Gilligan on GILLIGAN'S ISLAND/CBS/1964-67 allegedly had died from an electrical shock after a radio had fallen into his bathtub in the early 1960s. Bob Denver never experienced such a situation and the only "charge" he is guilty of is being charged for possession of marijuana in June of 1998.

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 2:43pm
rtabit
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SI Daily

Hit that bottom support line again, must hold that line.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/b128795...

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 2:51pm
Eman Laer
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http://www.brotherjohnf.com/

I swing trade by the seat of my pants, but I do make a little profit somehow. Any comments I make about my trades should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe as a contrarian indicator.
Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 2:56pm
rtabit
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GC Daily

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:05pm
SilverWealth
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bottoming

In the March ES contract starting at 1432.50 you have a perfect 3 wave down setup to 1410 with the 1st and Third wave down of equal length or about 15pts. each.

nice set up for a bounce, we see. The Borg is stiff and its a robot. 3 wave patterns can be seen thruout all Markets. Surrender! Resistance is Futile! You will be assimilated!

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:08pm
Lord Henry
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who knows ?

Because the odd juxtaposing of communism and capitalism lead

us abruptly to the odd kind of make-believe false reality that envelopes

us now, a sad sense of latent doom enters the mind, a sense that one

day the life-support will finally reach overload then dramatically fail.

This sense of uncertainty and great doubt then pervades all we

think and do, taints our judgment and points us towards the vehement

and unswerving bugs that we've become.

Although I'm still trapped in this kind of quasi magnetic & metallic club,

the fact that the ' precious' does not reciprocate within this relationship is a kind of

evidence that we might be serving a slightly false allegiance, and that the magnetism

might be more imagined than reality.

Although I think the bull market is still intact, there is an argument that says

that gold has discounted all the printing ahead of time, and its job is largely

already done. Another part of me thinks that gold buying will not excite any real fever

until a dramatic develuation ($1350 ?) creates a compelling 'reason to buy' . Sorry, just

carrying out a bit of self exorcism and debugging, thats all. Although I didnt quite miss

the golden bus, am wondering if the best part of the journey was when the bus was almost

empty...

Have been strangely right about currencies this year. My state of mind has prevented

me thinking about equities, because normal equity buying and end-of-world dynamics have

a certain incompatibility which leaves me brain locked, and unable to rationalise clearly.

Am mindful of the fact that the Japanese have been printing for 2o odd years, and being

great innovators in this field, have recently had nitrous and twin intercooler upgrades to their

printers , which can reputedly run 24/7 at 2.0 bar. This has worked wonders for my long usdjpy,

which I'm running at a modest 1.2 bar leverage, but looking for an opportunity to twiddle the dial.

Am thinking very long and hard about getting long the Nikkei too (ffs). Sorry for incessant ramble .

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:11pm
SilverWealth
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brother John

Isn't Brother John the guy last year that Atlee went postal on?

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:24pm
pailin
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Rick

Good ol' Rick Santelli. He actually just said on live tv that gold has been securitized and trades lots of paper...all these ETFs...and "does anybody really think there's a garage somewhere with all these bars in it?" Gaping mouths among the rest.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:28pm
SSK
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I continue to sit on the

I continue to sit on the sidelines waiting for a confirmed shift in the miners. I own some underwater NUGT. But I didn't bite yesterday. In fact, I've tried to ignore the metal trade the last couple weeks. We keep waiting for fed meetings, unemployment numbers, November, December, and now for 2013 (it's going to be freaking huge! To da moon!).

But it never is.

I've moved on for the short term. I will buy a miner again just as soon as I see a momentum trade return. Until then, it's a losing proposition. Has been for two years.

I've moved into serial trading of LNG. It's been on a helluva tear since announcing the accelerated construction of its first export facility. That caught lots of folks off guard. It also added a level of reality to the lng trade. Ships will sail from Sabine Pass Terminal in 2015. Frack away. I haven't posted LNG thoughts because this just isn't the place for it.

I also got sick to death of cracking the same "I should have bought Facebook" joke every time the metals tanked. So I fucking bought some. It works ok as a swing trade.

In the last three weeks or so, I've traded pharmaceuticals, oils, natty gas (not UNG), solars, and tech.

But don't worry, I'll be back in the S&M chamber just as soon as the HUI confirms the next upswing.

Until then, everyone can bicker away!

Glad to see SW is back. I've gotta have my daily dose of SW!

Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:50pm SilverWealth
csquared13
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SilverWealth wrote: Isn't

SilverWealth wrote:

Isn't Brother John the guy last year that Atlee went postal on?

i think so SW

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - 3:50pm
SilverWealth
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SSK

thanks for that reminder on LNG, was holding a cobwebbed position that was way down in November.

it is projecting to 18.65 on one wave count and 19.65 on a larger count and its bullish so I am set to trade it again, thanks buddy.

got the predicted bounce in ES off the 3 wave down, now resistance is at fib retracements of 1418, 1421,1423 of this move down. Selling Nflx and some Cmg and goog into the 38% retracement already, have no idea how much farther it goes, selling a little gdx as well.

will revaluate at close. Lakers hired the wrong fucking coach and are sucking down on 10s of millions in contracts. Hired the wrong fucking players too. My heart is warmed by all the filthy rich celebs singing for Sandy last night. What a joke. Jagger should be put down like a blind old horse, who can watch him ever? Its embarassing, never could sing and never could dance. Just a vaudevillian huckster with zero charm and less talent.

randomness