Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 8:08am
Lord Henry
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Rico mentioned usd/jpy and

Its a potentially very lucrative trade which I've been

pondering for a few days. Finally dipped in a toe

today, along with the similar gbp/jpy for diversity.

With metals in a sort of no mans land today, would

be interested in any other views on these pairs - if

you look at the netdania monthlies on these then work

your way back, perhaps others see a possible reversal .

Will probably need a lot of patience to play out .

Happy thanksgiving to all.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 12:21pm
Strawboss
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Yeah, I am thinking it might

Yeah, I am thinking it might be prudent to carry some DUST into the weekend.

50/50 NUGT/DUST

75 NUGT/25 DUST

50 NUGT/50 Cash

Last year, the price of silver dropped about $2 in the 2 days up to option expiration and then rose. Its looking possible for a repeat of a similar outcome into OE next Tuesday.

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 12:30pm
Lord Henry
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think I'm turning Japanese

THE VAPORS

<iframe width="960" height="720" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gEmJ-VWPDM4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>THE VAPORS

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 12:41pm
Canuck
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Pass the turkey please..

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 1:58pm
Rico
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AAPL

First of all, Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Re AAPL, for me, that potential H and S is easier to see on a weekly. Looks like the top of the right shoulder would be in the ~635 area, with a neckline ~525. One never knows how these things will play out, but should an actual H and S develop, a break of the neckline seems pretty limited by that 475 area I talked about during the meltdown. Just can't see any reason for that not to hold.

That doesn't mean I'm giving the miners a pass. I think they will do poorly even with a resumption of the equity bull. Equity rallies are led by the sectors-du-jour, and playas will keep selling miners to jump into what's working. Also, the long PM/short miners perennial ass-whuppin' hasn't gone anywhere.

I have a fun little long-shot experiment to put out there: I challenge all minerphiles here at the PTC to put out their single best idea--my horse will be ZNGA. We'll start on Monday and run through Q1 2013. The winner will be the one with the biggest percentage gain--let's see what happens!

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 2:31pm
sixdollarsilver
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sure, I'll play

APM : TSX

Does it count if I can't get access to trade it (well, not easily anyway...)?

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 4:35pm (Reply to #30436)
Canuck
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I'm in

I'll get back to ya on a choice

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 5:28pm
Rico
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No trading necessary--set it,

No trading necessary--set it, forget it, and check the price March 31, 2013

BTW, I consider Marc Pincus to be a loathsome, carpetbagging, thief who deserves nothing more than to hang in the public square. I'm just intrigued by the speculative possibilities of his company's stock price

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 5:59pm
Canuck
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To be thankful for

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 7:49pm
Strawboss
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I will take NUGT if that's

I will take NUGT if that's allowed for the contest. If not, I will take AUMN.

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 7:54pm
daveyboy
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Rico.. what is special about

Rico.. what is special about March 31st of next year? or was this just simply a random date emphasising to hold a position for the month's ahead.

I am caught in 2 minds, since March 2011, I have made about 30% through trading, and I see that 33 is a big barrier for silver. My best guess would be that we will challenge 31 and perhaps dip down to 30. In the event of dire news from Europe, that dip could breach 30.00 and challenge 29.00.

I don't think it's too likely in the coming months that we might challenge 26 but in the event of a major liquidation of stock, then anything is of course possible.

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 8:55pm
Rico
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Strawboss, NUGT is fine.

Strawboss, NUGT is fine. Davey, I picked the end of Q1 to give the trade adequate time.

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 9:21pm
redwood
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I'll go with FNV.WT.A I agree

I'll go with FNV.WT.A

I agree re: broad market and the subsequent decline of miners, which I expect some time late Dec./early January 2013. That is of course unless we all die Dec. 21 2012.

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 10:10pm
Corsair
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Put me down for KBX

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

"The closest we get to perfection is writing our resumes."
Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - 11:22pm
csquared13
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Maybe I'll play Monday too.

Maybe I'll play Monday too. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/2VbYZDohsHk

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - 9:50am (Reply to #30444)
pailin
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redwood wrote: That is of

redwood wrote:

That is of course unless we all die Dec. 21 2012.

Not all. Just the debt slaves and masochisticminerphiles :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - 10:15am
Strawboss
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Looks like they are

Looks like they are triggering all of the buy stops this morning - perhaps as a prelude to the big smash on Sunday night to slam price down before OE on Tuesday?

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - 10:32am
pailin
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Beautiful day for pivots.

Beautiful day for pivots. Nailed all Rs in both metals. Still boundless inventory go forward but done selling for today. Happy (as always) to buy more at S levels down :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - 10:46am
hhesse
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pslv shelf offerings

i am seriously annoyed at sprott and pslv. bot a bunch before the last shelf offering which has impaired any joy in ag price movement since.

how many more times is he already pre-registered to administer this beating?

Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - 10:47am (Reply to #30445)
firstsilver
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RE KBX

Corsair,

I'm a long-time holder of KBX and have traded it for good profit several times in the past, catching those periodic doubles. But it's stubbornly refused to stop going down and give the big bounce this time. Just curious for your reasons to pick KBX for a trade now. Although you've gotten a small pop on day one, I need quite a big more than that.