Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 2:06pm
Big Buffalo
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@ Capt., Willard

Nice recap! Well said.

Ba-zinga!
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 3:33pm
SilverWealth
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law

a given law in the Asylum is Never buy Oil when it is 'strong' or 'breaking out', these are like flashing red warning signs of bull traps dead ahead imo. The oil pit invariably will flip the news cycle and then mop up the road kill early the next morning.

we seem to be in the midst of a tricky 4th wave in this up swing. I am waiting until tomorrow to buy dips lower unless 1387 is taken out above. Hope to buy around 1364 if lucky, maybe we get an overnight Ross-Dress-For-Less Thanksgiving sale, who knows?

regardless, I am not one way or another other than looking down on the GDX trade. It will follow the equity market and I do not see a sign of imminent upwards explosion. This remains an overnight,hard money trade much like a roulette wheel at Harrah's Lake Tahoe. Once the wheel settles in the early morning the intraday action is capped if you come out on black but encourages you to double down if your bet is in the red.

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 3:39pm Capt. Willard
SilverWealth
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Willard

Willard, reporting for duty Sir. Will be traveling up the River with you Sir.

Request permission to access file on one Clive Maund, a Kurtz agent provocateur and a master trickster.

Maund sees metal in a bearish rising wedge? This confirms my diagnosis Sir. Over. Request further confirmation and the position of the enemy at log pts up the River. Weather reports requested and possible time of arrivals at our checkpoint please... Over.

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 4:19pm SilverWealth
Capt. Willard
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Never leave the boat

Aye, SW, glad you made it back from Hao Phat in time! I ordered maintenance to grease your twin .50 cal during R&R. SigInt intercepted the following transmission on November 11th. Source of information verification ongoing. Prior missions have failed.

So far, in this instance, potential agent provocateur Clive de la Maund delivered solid intel.

Enemy activity to be expected further upriver. We're in free fire zone till we approach our objective, a hardened compound defended by rouge commando unit fragments in a remote valley close to Hill 1923. Weather allowing, plan is to leave with the first tide at break of light and pass the sandbanks and slip into the delta unnoticed. Godspeed.

Do you know why you can never step into the same river twice?
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 4:46pm
SilverWealth
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Captain Willard

Have received your communique, over. Verification solid. Headquarters confirm. Delta, Rio,Bravo, Charley, over. Have prisoner with me. A Major General A. Greenspan. Will tie to starboard overnight to draw enemy fire and locate positions. V.C. will take bait. We have orders to return fire all along river and will have air cover in to Hill 1923, dropping baskets when needed to clear our lines of sight.

Maund's French may be necessary as we approach the target zone and compound. Keep him on ice and under watch, do not trust...Over...Out

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 5:12pm
csquared13
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2 year, 5 year, and 7 year

2 year, 5 year, and 7 year treasury notes auction next week.

going off of senor kitties old treasury auction news cycle, i expect the dollar to hold this 80/81.xx range. (unless it continues to rally to the down-trend line ~84)

EDIT: just saw the Captain's communique. perhaps a spike in the DX to push gold down to complete that right shoulder?? (assuming of course the price action plays out this way) "who knows?"

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 5:38pm
Lord Henry
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simultaneous

long and shorts not exactly textbook trading imo, but

I think it helps me with my orientation sometimes. Managed to

wrestle a handy little win eventually, picked up some

cheap March gold (gone into 'moonshot' port) and finally

got lucky with wti , tiny position, but now with an 87.10

trailing stop : )

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 7:02pm
redwood
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http://washington.cbslocal.co

https://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/11/20/bernanke-congress-must-raise-...

While I agree that the broad market looks ill, the Gnome's precious utterance will keep things afloat till year end. I am still expecting metals to move up till year end along with the miners. Even if it didn't trigger a significant move today. The New Year is well..... a new year.

Even Maund, though he doubts it, says with MACD in such an oversold position that a relief rally in ES can occur.

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 7:09pm
Strawboss
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Interesting tidbits... Last

Interesting tidbits...

Last year on 11/19, the total OI for gold was 466,068. Today it is 470,855 - virtually unchanged from a year ago.

Last year on 11/19 the total OI for silver was 110,002. Today it is 148,714 - ALMOST 50% higher than last year.

Last year on 11/19 the total OI for the December gold contract was 190,918. Today it is 225,566. - about 18% higher.

Last year on 11/19 the total OI for the December silver contract was 34,299. Today it is 50,841 - about 48% higher.

Gold closed on 11/19/11 at $1724.90 on the Comex. Silver closed at 32.41.

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 7:13pm
redwood
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Canadian and Aussie dollar to join global reserve currency

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 8:23pm
Canuck
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More reading

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 8:46pm Canuck
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Canuck

Canuck wrote:

https://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/11/19/goldbugs/

Excellent. Thanks. I wrote Jim Sinclair after seeing him posting some negative stuff about Armstrong (Jim had previously held Armstong in high regard). What I got back was too cryptic for me to decipher so I won't try and state it here. I can say that I haven't read anything negative from Santa about Armstrong since then.

It blows my mind when someone is held up as a prophet until you don't like what they say (as opposed to them being wrong) then the same folks lynch without taking the time to dig in and understand why they suddenly have divergent opinions.

On a separate topic. Gold still hasn't managed to touch 1740.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 9:21pm HappyNow
Canuck
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main page

Perhaps I should post it on the main page.

would they listen...

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 9:21pm HappyNow
Canuck
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main page

Perhaps I should post it on the main page.

would they listen...

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 9:21pm HappyNow
Canuck
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main page

Perhaps I should post it on the main page.

would they listen...

Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - 10:34pm Canuck
HappyNow
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Canuck wrote: Perhaps I

Canuck wrote:

Perhaps I should post it on the main page.

would they listen...

If what you mean is would it make a difference then my guess is very little. I think it's worth posting. If you do then by putting up a little background on Armstrong for the uninitiated would increase the chances of constructive critical thinking.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 12:43am
Titus Andronicus
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There's nothing quite like

There's nothing quite like running some stops in the middle of the night prior to the holidays!

Feel the holiday spirit?

Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 3:17am
Titus Andronicus
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This high silver OI is not necessarily bullish

It makes me more nervous than bullish.

In general, high OI means that the silver trade is crowded. Not necessarily bearish, but not necessarily bullish either.

Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 6:38am Titus Andronicus
Strawboss
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Yeah, I dont disagree with

Yeah, I dont disagree with you on that. History definitely proves that more often than not, high OI is a tell of a downside move to come. But, there are exceptions of course...

What really stands out to me though is the fact that OI can be up almost 50% and yet the price is only up 2% from last year same time.

50% more buyers cant move the needle? I mean between this and the concentration of the short position - a person would have to be brain dead to think that silver is a fair market.

One conclusion I have come to is that unless and until gold takes out $1740 and then $1800 - silver is going nowhere - no matter how high the level of buying interest.

Titus Andronicus wrote:

It makes me more nervous than bullish.

In general, high OI means that the silver trade is crowded. Not necessarily bearish, but not necessarily bullish either.

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 7:51am
Lord Henry
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yes I agree

Gold must recapture 1740 soon or else its rice

and beans for Christmas. Kurz was a man of

method imo. He would have seen sense in

the manner of my approach.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
randomness