Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 8:28pm Titus Andronicus
redwood
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No it would most definitely

No it would most definitely be after the election, if it happens.

Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 8:42pm Titus Andronicus
pailin
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Titus Andronicus wrote:You

Titus Andronicus wrote:

You really think the stock market is going to be allowed to tank ahead of the elections? I'll take that bet!

The debates: I could not bring myself to spend any time listening to these pretenders and whores. It's like listening to robots programmed by Goebbels, Marx, and Hoover. Why not spend your time pulling your own finger nails out?

No bet Titus! Watching Exorcist: The Beginning over non-Debate.

Seriously, what are they ironing out tonight - whether to screw us twice or three times in our sleep?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 8:58pm
redwood
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Like most interested in

Like most interested in precious metals, copper is the real metal to watch. Very good article describing the copper/gold ratio and what it means in terms of economic growth.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/902701-copper-and-gold-are-telling-the-...

And now if I can stomach it off to watch (glaze over) the debate.

Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 9:27pm
redwood
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Romney wins this debate hands

Romney wins this debate hands down, but don't know if it'll make a difference. First impression only half hour into debate. OT but pertinent to the market.

Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 9:43pm redwood
pailin
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And on the other

And on the other channel...Satan eats Father Merrin :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 10:10pm
Vypuero
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everything in O's opening statement was a lie

I could not bear to watch much further. - deficit down? after 5 trillion deficit spending spree? - job training? Go to a job training center in NYC, they tell you how to apply for foodstamps and disability - education? We already have a multi-trillion dollar student loan bubble, and idiots learning nothing but being indoctrinated in collectivist bullshit and Gaia worship - alternate energy? Unless you start powering the real world on unicorn gas and magic sparkles, that is nothing but a money pit - bring jobs on shore? What with all the free money you gave companies that outsourced to China? How about the EPA and Consumer Protection shutting every small business down? Harrassment of Gibson Guitar for total bullshit. Regulations, overpriced unions that give money to useless hacks and leave everyone else out in the cold. all I can say is, FUCK YOU, you fucking LIAR!

Wed, Oct 3, 2012 - 10:56pm
redwood
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Well I watched the whole

Well I watched the whole thing. O very much on the defence tonight, looking furious and arrogant. Very easily injured by criticism. Not his usual smooth talking self either but as usual his thoughts lack cohesion. More form than substance.

Romney did a surprisingly adequate job. He delivered well on the small businessman, the Constitution, and state governance.

Let's face it. All of this means squat. But this debate will alter the course of the next 5 weeks. And for the first time I really am wondering whether O will win. If the MSM declares him a winner tonight, its a moot point.

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 1:23am
SilverWealth
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debate

clearly Romney in delivery and style wiped the floor with Barry. The Debt Bro looked like a wounded child narcissist up there. If his media homeboy whores decide to turn against him he could lose.

you could tell that O. did not really understand what he was saying much of the time. And the kid has zero access to passion, maybe its just not there. The androgynous quality is losing its appeal as the hair grays and the face sags. O. was always an affirmative action student and not the brightest fish in the barrel. All pose. No real intellect.

Both of them were spouting nonsense of no consequence whatsoever. The entire proceeding was a pathetic farce but the lead actor in it was clearly Romney who contrary to media propaganda has authority, sharp intelligence and considerable self-confidence. Men will vote overwhelmingly for him. It remains to be seen whether women will suddenly abandon the poseur in the last two weeks of the campaign. For all that is said about women's intuition I don't put much stock in it, I think women are generally much more gullible than men.

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 3:31am
Titus Andronicus
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Silver COT Analysis: commercial short squeeze case studies.

Based on the recent changes in the gold and silver COTs, I decided to post another COT analysis. This study covers silver, but similar things can be said about gold.

Below is my very "busy" COT chart for silver. Sorry the resolution is not better. I reprint the text boxes below, so don't kill your eyes trying to read them from the chart.

  1. This chart covers 11 years from 2001 (starting on the left) until today (on the right).
  2. The top part of the graph shows the price.
  3. The middle colored part shows the commercial net position. (When I say "net position" below, I'm talking about the commercial net position.) IMPORTANT: notice that since 2003, the commercial net position has been swinging up and down within a rising channel. (This channel is drawn in blue.)
  4. You can ignore the two sets of lines on the bottom part.
  5. The commercial net position (middle part of chart) is colored into green, red and yellow.
    1. GREEN: Rising price and falling net position. (Commercials selling into strength.)
    2. RED: Falling price and rising net position. (Commercials buying weakness.)
    3. YELLOW: Rising price and rising net position. (COMMERCIAL SHORT SQUEEZE!!!)
    4. These colorings are simplified to help make them easier to read. (For example, the net position is not only rising in the RED regions.) They can be broken down into finer resolution, but the above is good for making my point.
  6. My theory is that GREEN and RED are the normal, routine "modes" of market operation: commercials selling into strength and buying weakness. But when the commercials have hit the bottom of the channel ("run out of ammo") and price continues to rise, they are forced to buy into strength -- YELLOW: commercial short squeeze.
  1. CASE A: (see text box labeled "A" in the chart above.)
    1. 9/05-1/06: Very hard drop in net position.
    2. 1/06-5/06: Commercial short squeeze! (A good one!)
  2. CASE B:
    1. 9/07-2/08: Very hard drop in net position.
    2. 2/08-3/08: Commercial short squeeze of very short duration. (DARN!)
  3. CASE C:
    1. 4/09-12/09: Strong drop in net position.
    2. No immediate short squeeze. (Commercials are SAVED BY THE BELL!)
  4. CASE D:
    1. 10/10-5/11: Finally we get the commercial short squeeze.
    2. This was the "big momma".
  5. CASE E:
    1. 7/12-9/12: Very hard drop in net position.
    2. Followed by ???? ("big daddy"?)

Are you still with me? Man you are patient!

So the idea is: once the commercials go short all the way to the bottom of the channel, they are forced to start buying. If price continues to rise after hitting bottom, the commercials are forced to buy into strength (the commercial short squeeze) -- and gold bugs everywhere experience commercial short covering nirvana ... for a time.

Are we there yet? We are getting much closer than I thought we would be in 3 months. The drop in net position over the last 3 months is drastic! And very close to the bottom of the channel! We may or may not be there, but we are a LOT closer than we were 3 months ago. Look back on the chart ... do you see a drop as sharp and fast as the latest one? I guess that case "A" above is very close. Personally, I guess we are not quite there yet (see next point.)

Will the commercials be "saved by the bell"? Could be. If you study the graph, you can see a number of instances where a sharp drop did not result in an immediate YELLOW short squeeze. I think, that the commercials will be "saved by the bell" shortly and that we'll have to wait for a "round 2" like we did in the "C" and "D" cases above. But maybe not!

When will we know for sure? That's easy! Price AND net position will be rising at the same time.

What do we do then? BUY and HOLD and WATCH OUT! In general, the YELLOW short covering regions have been followed by sharp drops in price. Commercial short covering results in sharp increases in price followed by a collapse. So the idea is that you can make a lot of fast money -- especially if you are leveraged -- but you cannot overstay your welcome. (Maybe you can lighten along the way.)

Is it really that easy? Probably not. Ask me again afterwards.

(I'm going to sit on this for a bit, then edit it and repost it to the main thread tomorrow.)

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 3:47am
sixdollarsilver
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That's awesome Titus

I've greatly enjoyed that chart every time you've brought it out. I have nothing at all to add to your analysis... spot on.

Please keep us posted as you see things developing within this framework.

Cheers

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 6:12am
Eman Laer
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Titus

I swing trade by the seat of my pants, but I do make a little profit somehow. Any comments I make about my trades should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe as a contrarian indicator.
Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 6:26am
uki
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@ Silver COT Analysis

Titus great work with your analysis! It is very sound.

I have question about the possible explanation of the first yellow area in 2004. It is a bit unusual, preceded (and not followed) by the red area. How would you explain that?

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 6:51am
Big Buffalo
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Forex

Just realized i could sell (short) a contract without having a position. nice!

Ba-zinga!
Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 8:49am Big Buffalo
pailin
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Yep, shorting forex is often

Yep, shorting forex is often a nice off-NYSE way to hedge NYSE longs that deteriorate post-4pm!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 9:26am
Bum in the library...
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metals up already...  any

metals up already... any forecast for the rest of the day? the dollar is dropping premarket but who knows...

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 9:33am
redwood
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Metals tend to rise before

Metals tend to rise before FOMC. That usually means a substantial drop in the first half hour after. After that who knows.

However here the metals have dropped and wouldn't be surprised to see them drop further. There has been a sea change so old patterns don't seem to apply right now. We'll see.

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 9:38am Bum in the library...
pailin
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Bum in the library...

Bum in the library... wrote:

metals up already... any forecast for the rest of the day? the dollar is dropping premarket but who knows...

Up in NYSE, down in forex, so sucks. 8 am was the sell, robbing NYSE hours of any serious gains. Same old same old.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 10:27am
Bum in the library...
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crazy... The NFLX call from

crazy... The NFLX call from yesterday was good even though as usual I pulled out too early. I was able to pick up UCO, USO, and NUGT yesterday at a bargain and just sold them so I had some good profits today. I def can't complain...

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 10:43am
Vypuero
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Bum

Try selling half to keep your profits and let the other half work for the longer trend with a stop at break even. This way, you don't let a winner become a loser, but can still benefit from the longer term. I did that today with MUR - it went very high this morning and I sold half into that high. It has retraced a lot, but the rest will ride the longer trend now.

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 10:47am
BlackHawk
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Gentlemen, put your money where your mouth is

Talk about more form than substance. That would be all who are talking smack about Obama, especially Vypuero and SW. No substance whatsoever.

As for women being more gullible than men, how about you bear Romney's next American boy child against your will, go to the emergency room to deliver it because you have no health care, then raise it while trading a portion of your food stamps to buy toilet paper. Meanwhile, watch Romney send other people's boy children to murder Iranians, keeping his sons and himself safe at home, or relaxing in his magic underwear in Temple. Yes, you all really have it figured out to the gnat's ass , don'cha?

Here is a place you can put your money where you mouth is. Triple your money by placing your bets on Romney today. Step right up boys. Maybe some gullible woman will take the other side of the bet for you. https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

So STFU about this shite over here, OK?

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