Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 6:34am
Titus Andronicus
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Silver "super wedge" crisis is very near

According to my charts and trend lines (which are similar but not exactly the same to some others I've seen), Tuesday's wedge prices are $28.31 to break up thought the falling trend since May 2011 and $27.04 to break down through the rising support line since 2008.

Like any wedge, this is narrowing every day. It could stay inside this week, but I don't think it will make next week.

So we're heading to a crisis (decision point) any day now. Won't be long, even with a false move in the wrong direction. (I'm not betting either way on this, but I'm sure interested to see the result.)

Happy Trading!

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 8:40am
Bum in the library...
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silver taking off

did anyone just see silver shoot up?

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 9:20am
babodonk
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@Bum in the libr... don't

@Bum in the libr...

don't quote me but...

fed member (wasn't listening who) was on the blower talking up qe as the unemployment rate in the US is unlikely to fall by the end of the year...

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 9:24am (Reply to #26132)
Bum in the library...
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Rosengren

you are right... I heard it myself but wasn't paying much attention: https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/usa-fed-rosengren-idUSW1E8IB0...

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 9:28am
Rico
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Long ZB, ZS, ZC, and NG

Long ZB, ZS, ZC, and NG

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 10:13am
dirk
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Do we see a hint

Where does it end? When we value a grain of gold like a grain of sand...
Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 10:19am
SilverWealth
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GDX

looking for typical pull down in miners following the massaged COT report being released in this time window.

I have serious doubts stackers will be allowed to make any money in bullion at this juncture. how does a system run by crooked banks that rigs Libor and admits it along with everything else not just demand a 90% tax on bullion?

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 11:12am
Rico
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No need for 90% tax, in their

No need for 90% tax, in their view. They know that interest in PMs will simply continue to wane if they are successful in continuing the equity party, which is Bernanke's true mission. This will also continue to be enforced with PM price beatdowns on demand, when the sheeple get too frisky.

A levitating stock market not only benefits the Street, but, much more importantly to Bernanke, bails out governments at all levels by taking the pressure off their retirement obligations. He may be evil, but he is certainly no fool.

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 11:16am
redwood
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So I guess as the divide

So I guess as the divide between the rich and the poor grow, it will be the top 10% that will support Bernanke's aim?

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 11:29am
SilverWealth
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interesting

interesting expose on Barry from a Libertarian yesterday, don't have the link.

guy was a classmate at Columbia. Says he never saw Barry there...

the Sheeple don't care though, they will contest a field goal in basketball or football for days on end. That is the extent of their investigative curiosity.

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 11:40am
SilverWealth
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HFT trader

HFT trader who tracks Algo robots intraday has distribution and selling continuing into these highs since Friday. Pigmen getting out. Trying to tip toe out on their hooves without farting. Trying not to make noise.

A good down August would not surprise at all. Its not my bias since I am day to day and will not stand amazed by any action. But lots of stop sweeping on all these high spikes in ES. Vaporize short positions before any takedown and mislead chasers trying to buy breakouts.

we are up 45 handles or so in a buying spree, sure it can go higher but this all feels like helium to me. The balloon is entering the stratosphere so please don your oxygen masks and parkas and beware of children shooting darts.

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 12:59pm
Vypuero
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X - US Steel

continues to perform well - also a hat tip to HFT for the recommendation on that. Sold a bit more into strength, holding some in case we keep going up. Stopped out of all shorts now - some profits on earlier shorts but the last couple were small losses. I am building some more put positions in SPY at these highs but giving it more time.

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 2:27pm
eyeswideopen
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Comparing two uptrends

My expectation last week was for another run similar to the previous, with a target of 28.4 and onto just under 30.

Momentum on this one is a bit steeper than the last. Nearly hit R2. I like the chances of moving through 28.4 shortly, and approaching weekly close at R3. Three interesting days ahead?

@Pailin. Would you sell all/portion if we hit R3 on Friday, or would you hold over the weekend?

I do not wear a tin foil hat, but I do believe a change is afoot due to the silver investigation. Using leverage rather than threatening legal action.

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 2:40pm (Reply to #26140)
csquared13
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SilverWealth wrote: HFT

SilverWealth wrote:

HFT trader who tracks Algo robots intraday has distribution and selling continuing into these highs since Friday. Pigmen getting out. Trying to tip toe out on their hooves without farting. Trying not to make noise.

A good down August would not surprise at all. Its not my bias since I am day to day and will not stand amazed by any action. But lots of stop sweeping on all these high spikes in ES. Vaporize short positions before any takedown and mislead chasers trying to buy breakouts.

we are up 45 handles or so in a buying spree, sure it can go higher but this all feels like helium to me. The balloon is entering the stratosphere so please don your oxygen masks and parkas and beware of children shooting darts.

i think i agree with ya, SW. I'm keeping my eye on this 1400 level.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 4:01pm (Reply to #26142)
pailin
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eyeswideopen wrote: @Pailin. 

eyeswideopen wrote:

@Pailin. Would you sell all/portion if we hit R3 on Friday, or would you hold over the weekend?

Always flat at R3 silver. Always.

Sometimes I even game it with some short there too.

As long as you know where you'll go long again, out at R3 is never a loser.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 4:02pm (Reply to #26144)
Bum in the library...
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what is R3?

what is R3?

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 4:19pm
SilverWealth
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Shatner getting slaughtered

Captain Kirk is getting hammered in aftermarket. PCLN guiding lower. Ridiculously over-priced, over-hyped stock.

Now falling fast, already 30 pts below its 200 day. This along with HFT trader showing negative divergence between price and his accumulator and it looks like finally we get a down open tomorrow.

Shatner at 584 now and sinking fast. Sharks having feeding frenzy. This is now almost 100 pts down from its close. Wild West out there. Robert Conrad is going to have to be called in to clear up the mess.

James West in (shirtless) trouble!

Jeff Corey is the character villain in the piece, a famous acting teacher from the old days.

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 4:30pm
babodonk
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Selling crude at R3 sep12

Selling crude at R3 sep12 94.60 today would have been a clear winner.... :(

Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 4:47pm (Reply to #26144)
TPaine
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pailin wrote: As long as you

pailin wrote:

As long as you know where you'll go long again, out at R3 is never a loser.

It was this past Jan 20th... :/ I'm still kicking myself over that one.

(I'm not a nimble day-trader. Cash account, no margin and settlement periods makes swing trading more my style)
Tue, Aug 7, 2012 - 5:03pm
l'idiot du village
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tough day

Buying 'cable' (forex speak for gbpusd ) shorts

at low (5min RSI) 70's....leading only to high 70's

then buying high 20's that become low ones.... Forex

no quick shortcut to Bill Gates' lifestyle imo

Waited and waited and finally got the wti reversal,

clearly marked with bearish engulfing candles. Nice

to have a longer duration short for once, enough time

to scale in and scale out. todays damage undone luckily.

Euro and metals now vaguely bullish imo since now

above 100 and 200 day sma (1hr) - continued

consolidation here might bring some institutional

interest hopefully.

randomness