Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 9:04am
Rico
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@Abe, Thanks for your

@Abe,

Thanks for your comments. I don't disagree--at some point, prices will go up. That's the beauty of commodities, they never go to zero. I also want to make it clear that I believe that PM prices are manipulated--just like all other markets.

There is nothing intrinsically magical about PMs. God did not look down upon his creation, and pronounce them the proper repository for the wealth of the righteous, and declare all others an abomination.

After an adult lifetime in the markets, I have found that every dog has its day. Right now, for example, it's the grains. In Q1 of 2011, it was silver. Gold has had an incredible run--is it such a crazy thought that it might, finally, have a down year?

In trading/investing, all true believers get burned--every time, without exception. Bubbles pop, things fall apart. There is also an endless supply of frauds and grifters, eager to enrich themselves on the money of the naive. It is infinitely easier to get rich selling advice to the gullible than to actually put your own hard-come-by wealth on the line and make it pay, to extract profit from the chaos on your wits and your nerve.

I'm glad you sold your silver at $41. That's a winning trade. May you have many more. It would be a shame to attribute that good fortune to anyone but yourself, especially an opportunistic clown like Avi Gilburt who doesn't give a damn whether you live or die, so long as you pay your subscription first.

Anyhoo, there's another game starting in nine hours' time, so good luck to you, and GLTA.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 9:27am Rico
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SW and Rico are the detox

SW and Rico are the detox after the addiction of main street, sprott and co or perhaps they are agents working for the EE :)

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 9:32am Rico
kevsta
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Rico wrote: @Abe, Thanks for

Rico wrote:

@Abe,

Thanks for your comments. I don't disagree--at some point, prices will go up. That's the beauty of commodities, they never go to zero. I also want to make it clear that I believe that PM prices are manipulated--just like all other markets.

There is nothing intrinsically magical about PMs. God did not look down upon his creation, and pronounce them the proper repository for the wealth of the righteous, and declare all others an abomination.

After an adult lifetime in the markets, I have found that every dog has its day. Right now, for example, it's the grains. In Q1 of 2011, it was silver. Gold has had an incredible run--is it such a crazy thought that it might, finally, have a down year?

In trading/investing, all true believers get burned--every time, without exception. Bubbles pop, things fall apart. There is also an endless supply of frauds and grifters, eager to enrich themselves on the money of the naive. It is infinitely easier to get rich selling advice to the gullible than to actually put your own hard-come-by wealth on the line and make it pay, to extract profit from the chaos on your wits and your nerve.

I'm glad you sold your silver at $41. That's a winning trade. May you have many more. It would be a shame to attribute that good fortune to anyone but yourself, especially an opportunistic clown like Avi Gilburt who doesn't give a damn whether you live or die, so long as you pay your subscription first.

Anyhoo, there's another game starting in nine hours' time, so good luck to you, and GLTA.

always enjoy your posts Rico, what happened to the trend thread?

and re God not pronouncing PMs the correct repository, I agree, however I think nature (and especially so the human kind) may have, after all if it's the last resort and definitely won't be vaporizing in a tsunami of 1s and 0's with everything else in the paper ponzi in a meltdown, that is going to become the attractive option at some point IMO

humans always graduate towards gold and silver as money across centuries and regimes for very specific reasons, and in the great cycle, the original money may very well one day become the last (credible) money standing again. stranger things have happened. not this week or next though lol.

in the meantime whatever the price does this year, I am much more comfortable with my worth represented in Oz, than Euros Dollars or GBP going forwards, and the gains over having it in a bank account these last few years will more than offset a down year or 2 before the trend resumes.

long and strong, sitting tight, hoping I'm right :) FU Bernanke Draghi and co.

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 11:55am
redwood
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Very good comments by

Very good comments by everyone here. Much appreciate it. Unlike Rico and many others here I have not been a long time trader. My angle has been from the start about understanding this complex devil called the market. Macro and micro factors are interwoven continuously. The masters wield control of the macro factors, the short term determinants are left to technology, interpretation of releases, pronouncements of biblical scope, etc.

As in most analytical matters one needs to have a good working model of the bigger picture. At this critical historical juncture economic war between US and China rules the day. ME war remains the trump card for the US. Obama will be reelected; Romney has been mediocre entertainment.

China has been hoarding gold and silver at lightening speed all the while developing a plethora of mines, both known and unknown. Central banks are trying to keep pace.

Yes, there has been an accelerating disinterest in miners and metals and as a short term decision has been to the advantage of the trader.

The momentum leading up to an event that will potentially crystallize global dominance is so encompassing that it appears to have created a quasi indifference, "la belle indifference" as French neurologists so famously coined at the end of the 19th century.

Trading requires bifocal lenses. Undue attention to one will compromise the other.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 12:33pm
daveyboy
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So Redwood, you see this as a

So Redwood, you see this as a run up in prices until November, a short term heavy fall which then signals QE3?

What if QE3 never comes? why does it need to come? there is no shortage of liquidity.

Denninger recently predicted (after his admittedly disastrous prediction of 3000 in the dow by now) that the stock market will go into a decade long decline, no collapse, just a prolonged slow incremental slide.

I would have to say that personally I concur with that prediction, or at least I think there is a strong likelihood of such.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 12:59pm
redwood
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Daveyboy

Yes, I also agree with Denninger and others. The market I believe is in a steady decline, some forecast till around 2020. As we all know this market has been supported with nothing but hot air. But they will keep doing that until November. They cannot risk doing otherwise. I expect quite a decline following.

However I do not include the metals in that picture. The miners go by the way of the equities, so I expect the same for them. That is why having physical is very important right now.

I also agree that QE3 won't come. It's been used as a carrot to sustain the market. It will be tossed once it is no longer of use.

There are times when an economics degree would help. So this is an assembly of ideas that I have surmised. But it is unfolding as I have expected. The only surprise for me is that I would have expected better performance by the miners this year, not as great as last 2 years, but better. I do think though that we are about to see a surge in those very soon. Just mo.

P.S. I just received an email by Celente who says he expects a market crash this year. This man whatever you may think of him is a big picture man and his forecasts have been impressive. We are always disappointed when someone who has garnered credibility fails to predict in a timely fashion. These people are giving probabilites, not certainties which is what everyone wants, and if people like Celente, Avi, Ivar, Sinclair have missed the mark in time, but not in direction, I would say they are doing stellar work. It just can't be used for short term trades.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 3:15pm
l'idiot du village
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gold bugs are unique creatures...

Because they lust over their condemning of the printing

presses....the same presses whose regular usage is the

principal driver of their beloved gold price... No printing

clearly equals stagnating gold price ...equals unhappy bugs.

I'm personally unhappy because of all the time I've spent

studying anticlinal folds, impermeable shear zones etc etc

which has been dead knowledge for 18 months during the

near death experience in the ventures market. Hence I now

find myself in forex/traders kindergarten...but I'll slowly

get there....Meanwhile QE is inevitable in Euroland to prevent

international confrontation imo and inevitable in the US to

keep the State coffers 'solvent'. Although I agree a crash in

2013 looks likely, what we all think likely will never come

about, so more post election qe leading to possible economic

'improvement' in 2013 is what no-one is predicting imo.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 5:09pm
pailin
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PMs to the moon? All it takes

PMs to the moon? All it takes is one 'respected' mainstream equities guy saying he's out of performance and into protection. Everything is dead, I'm out. Closing his fund, returning cash, and going all to physical bars. It would have to be a very well-reasoned individual though, somebody they couldn't pin nutty on. And that's assuming anybody would let the message out to begin with.

Otherwise it's probably a slow grind up with explosive moments of strength and weakness. Like a time lapse death of a sun.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 5:51pm pailin
kevsta
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pailin wrote: PMs to the

pailin wrote:

PMs to the moon? All it takes is one 'respected' mainstream equities guy saying he's out of performance and into protection. Everything is dead, I'm out. Closing his fund, returning cash, and going all to physical bars. It would have to be a very well-reasoned individual though, somebody they couldn't pin nutty on. And that's assuming anybody would let the message out to begin with.

Otherwise it's probably a slow grind up with explosive moments of strength and weakness. Like a time lapse death of a sun.

or a real kick off in the middle east? we haven't had any war based gold spikes for a long while either

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 6:12pm pailin
redwood
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Otherwise it's probably a

"Otherwise it's probably a slow grind up with explosive moments of strength and weakness. Like a time lapse death of a sun."

Like an accelerated pattern that we've seen since May 17, 2012. Unless you've traded the bidirectional moves, you would be slightly ahead since then. I expect a stronger propulsive move forward. This week's price action, given the time of year, should be telling.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 7:46pm
Bum in the library...
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good Friday

I bought some call SLV and GLD options on thursday and they did really well on Friday... finally. I was able to exit out of about 70% of SLV at the day high and still have GLD. I'll probably buy any dips and hope it keeps heading up. they look like they are headed into some resistance though

Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 3:34am
Abraham Bernanke
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Financial Times front page Silver Manipulation!

Four year silver probe set to be dropped!

Case set to be dropped due to not enough evidence!!?? say US regulators (manipulators). It states the JPM will be relieved by the dropping of the case. (these B(W)ankers, its a case of Mafia run banking/money system and the masses just don't see this fraud under their noses). This call for no evidence of manipulation of prices will surely stir the wrath of Andy M to come out fighting to prove his whistle blowing on manipulation has not been worthless. It is strange how the 2 previous investigations in 2004 and 2008 also found no wrongdoing regarding manipulation of price action. I look forward to Turds and ZH comments on this.

Before I post the link to the ZH article, note who was the 2nd to comment in reply to the ZH article......the main man himself! Also he gives that great statement we all love but hate "patience is a virtue"

ZH on this article is already out HERE

Subscrption or a free look for registering at:-

FT FRONT PAGE

Ted Butlers Evidence report for the manipulation confirmation can be found here, EVIDENCE

Bonds Equities and USD look to continue a run up this week while metals remain precarious in a tight wedge which still is on the verge of a break up or down, our friend time will tell.

SWAGER on. Silver - Wine - Art - Gold - Energy - Real estate
Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 4:36am
kevsta
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I don't understand why it's

I don't understand why it's always the innocent, why cant some orange haired wierdo ever walk into the CTFC and shoot the fuckers up? until these people start to see that there will be personal consequences for their betrayal, nothing is ever going to change.

you can compare this to the IRA, all the years the IRA were bombing soldiers and civilians, no-one (in power) ever gave a shit as soldiers and civilians are both endless abd dispensable, but when they started directly targeting politicians and their families, "we" were suddenly much more willing to "negotiate" with terrorists. funny eh?

anyway pleasantries aside, will they now have to make all the "evidence" available to the public? I'm pretty sure if they did, the collective "WE" could find the damning parts quickly enough, as we 1) know what we are looking for, 2) have less porn to download and less banker cock to suck.

utterly shameful but totally predictable.

edit for the sake of the various "Agencies" who will read this. I am not condoning violence, but if it has to happen, (and clearly it does periodically in the States) there are better and worse scenarios, I personally would much rather that the complicit enablers of institutional crime were targeted than innocent moviegoers.

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 7:52am
pailin
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CFTC - no boogieman

Ya gotta love CME lowering silver margins at the same time this headline comes out. I guess it's full steam ahead long silver now right? After all it's a risk free trade and paper is much more cost efficient for traders! At least that's the push from two fronts now :)

I've always said -in dire circumstances- a 100 oz bar...well the heft alone makes for much confidence when wielded properly :) :)

re: Directing the violence...doesn't have to be a gunman, a well-placed earthquake or tsunami (from UK??) is equally effective and may take more out faster. Then Homeland can suggest a War on (Acts of) God :) :) :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 8:22am pailin
kevsta
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:) a war on nature you mean?

:) a war on nature you mean? I think that's already raging on multiple fronts, both covert and overt.

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 9:48am
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

Daily XAU/USD
High 1607.13
Low 1585.96
Close 1603.31
R3 1632.81
R2 1619.97
R1 1611.64
Pivot 1598.80
S1 1590.47
S2 1577.63
S3 1569.30
Weekly XAU/USD
High 1628.34
Low 1584.18
Close 1603.31
R3 1670.54
R2 1649.44
R1 1626.38
Pivot 1605.28
S1 1582.22
S2 1561.12
S3 1538.06
Monthly XAU/USD
High 1629.83
Low 1554.75
Close 1614.48
R3 1719.71
R2 1674.77
R1 1644.63
Pivot 1599.69
S1 1569.55
S2 1524.61
S3 1494.47
Daily XAG/USD
High 27.936
Low 27.038
Close 27.781
R3 29.030
R2 28.483
R1 28.132
Pivot 27.585
S1 27.234
S2 26.687
S3 26.336
Weekly XAG/USD
High 28.405
Low 26.981
Close 27.781
R3 29.887
R2 29.146
R1 28.463
Pivot 27.722
S1 27.039
S2 26.298
S3 25.615
Monthly XAG/USD
High 28.477
Low 26.462
Close 27.970
R3 30.825
R2 29.651
R1 28.810
Pivot 27.636
S1 26.795
S2 25.621
S3 24.780
Daily EUR/USD
High 1.23933
Low 1.21659
Close 1.23866
R3 1.26921
R2 1.25427
R1 1.24647
Pivot 1.23153
S1 1.22373
S2 1.20879
S3 1.20099
Weekly EUR/USD
High 1.24063
Low 1.21332
Close 1.23866
R3 1.27573
R2 1.25818
R1 1.24842
Pivot 1.23087
S1 1.22111
S2 1.20356
S3 1.19380
Monthly EUR/USD
High 1.26814
Low 1.20414
Close 1.23025
R3 1.32822
R2 1.29818
R1 1.26422
Pivot 1.23418
S1 1.20022
S2 1.17018
S3 1.13622
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 12:28pm
SilverWealth
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comment

if I have to login and change my password one more time I am gone from this place. Tedious and ridiculous with all these screens as if the guy is guarding some gold bars here.

Watching a character named TraderFlorida over at Stocktwits. I think an example of a full on sociopath. Very entertaining to listen to. Lies effortlessly about his positions. Claims to already be out of shorts that he was in during the short squeeze and in longs that he made no mention of before. Has huge following. Claims to be owning and renovating homes in Caymans, Key West, Wisconsin, and traveling all the time to Europe while trading fulltime. A full on nut job who has countless minions fooled by this private fantasy life he has going. Really entertaining to watch the drama unfold.

Eventually stocktwits will catch on and block the guy. For now its like watching a soap opera... always claims to be in right at the breakout for massive gains and to have already sold any losing position. Hysterical. Gives ongoing 'instruction' in posted daily videos. Complete fantasy life in perfect illlustration.

Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 12:44pm
Rico
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Toast!

Toast!

Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 12:59pm
Bum in the library...
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$28

is Silver going to make it over $28? kind of stuck there....

Mon, Aug 6, 2012 - 1:10pm
Rico
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Utterly bizarre silver

Utterly bizarre silver action: no volatility whatsoever, and almost no volume--really, really strange. I have had a bid on SLV calls a half-cent under the ask with no takers.

I have no idea what is up, but something is. Broken market.

randomness