Pailin's Trading Corner

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Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 9:41pm l'idiot du village
rtabit
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Double Jeopardy wrote: I

Double Jeopardy wrote:

I think we need to be looking more at 10 and

15 min charts to see what direction we're heading.

5 min charts dont give us enough story .

I make most my trades off 20 and 240 minute charts. I've tried looking at 5 minute before for FX trades but found them mostly useless, like you say don't give us enough of story, I can't see enough data on my screen, maybe if you have a giant screen they'd be more useful, but when I want a bigger picture I just look at bigger charts.

Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 9:48pm
redwood
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Cold Play - Spies

Coldplay-spies

Cold Play - Spies

Coldplay live Don't Panic 2000

Cold Play - Don't Panic

Off to watch "Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy" -- its all thematic.

Fri, Aug 3, 2012 - 10:14pm
rtabit
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Charts

Hard for me to tell direction in SI, I'd say maybe up based on daily.

SI Daily: Ignore last bar, shouldn't be there. Looks like we've got higher low and higher higher high within red fork, signaling possible trend change. https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/590d794a-ce50-4131-aedc-b4ba844f0c35

SI 240: Nothing useful, these are forks I'm looking at to see if they display indications of becoming valid. https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/7e606aa9-87f9-4f7f-aae0-29ecb9e03291

SI 20: Looks OK to me, wouldn't trade off it yet. https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/78107da0-fedf-4ede-b2a3-2f8a32e17dd6

ES 240: Working great, hitting resistance, I don't think it will hold, we're at top of bar on close and got higher low in fork, watch around 1400, but resistance line held well on previous attempt.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/d001b977-7087-47bb-bf1b-84a5a7c3c208

ES Daily: Resistance right around 1400, which is also where 240 chart UP line is. https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/052aeb63-147e-45cc-8b4f-c404ff84f11b

ES 20: Also hitting resistance, showing 1407 area as next place to look for resistance. https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/83f28666-b138-4d1c-9719-35376fbd9ec0

EURO 240: I'm still bullish EURO, based mostly on this chart, had a great week trading it, had a 190 pip winner opened yesterday afternoon closed this afternoon alone.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/EUR/media/ac52667e-a4b7-4e07-8789-fddcbf8a3fbd


EURO Daily: Ignore last bar, that resistance bar it's hitting has never been anything, I just put it there.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/EUR/media/2fdfe8ea-6e83-4c26-a936-c946fff3e820

CL 240: This chart is getting some great touches, I'll be watching this.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/CL%20Charts/media/d3ab792e-8ea8-4119-ac7a-95638d4e87db

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 3:14am
l'idiot du village
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thats helpful rtabit

Although I like RSI more than pivots for buy and sell

signals, am wondering if you'd use s1 and r1 values

as stop loss settings rather than the more usual and

arbritrary 20 or 30 pips ?

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 5:24am
kevsta
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Ok week for the metals, could

Ok week for the metals, could have been worse. Gold tested the top of the downtrend line twice and bounced, finished back above the important 70ma and daily trend positive again.

looks to be settling into a slow up channel, if it was anything else than the metals I would likely be shorting the top and buying the bottom of this range.

Interesting how the Euro rallied 220pips or something, Dow +230 points and gold "held" at 1605 all day wasn't it?

these 2 will revert again, so either the Friday was another massive fakeout rally and its all down again when Monday reality sets in (my suspicion) or gold will rally to catch up.

Silver not looking as strong as gold, still to breach 70MA on daily, although we have a 16 day bollinger squeeze in play which has had ample opportunity to fire off south, and now looks pretty bullish to me

4 hourly even more so, trend turns positive, push through 70ma, basing off the 21 (green) and stepping upwards, RSI confirms "trend on".

I wouldn't be surprised to see a monster silver short squeeze develop out of all this.

"Computer says 'maybe?' "

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 5:34am l'idiot du village
rtabit
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Double Jeopardy

Double Jeopardy wrote:

Although I like RSI more than pivots for buy and sell

signals, am wondering if you'd use s1 and r1 values

as stop loss settings rather than the more usual and

arbritrary 20 or 30 pips ?

I try to find a recent low/high and set stop loss a little below/above that, most of the time I use 5 pips but it depends. If I can't find a good recent low I'll set something arbitrary. Also if I'm getting gains and it reverses and makes new pivot I'll update my stop loss to a few pips below that better new low. 20 or 30 pips seems like a kinda high stop loss, if you're looking for 3 to 1 risk/reward you'd need a 90 pip move, that's a pretty big move.

I don't use RSI but I do use stochastics on certain entry setups, but I guess I could use RSI, I'm just looking for overbought/oversold conditions, but it's a secondary indicator for me to confirm my fork setup, but I rarely get that setup so I don't use it much, but I watch it.

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 5:44am
kevsta
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DJ are you saying you have

DJ are you saying you have been making your trading decisions based on 5 min charts and using only an RSI reading and certain values on it to give you the entry and exit points?

if so it's no wonder you're having a wild ride.. clue, you should not really be in an adrenaline-d up state while trading :)

for me RSI gives either more indication (confirmation) of a likely entry (divergence) in a setup as part of a trading strate​gy or it can sometimes help signal weakness and time to exit if you're in a position, but I would never make decisions based on RSI alone, and especially so on the 5 min chart as it can very easily blow right through 70 and jam at 95 for 20 minutes.

in my humble noob opinion you need a more reliable strategy than that amigo.

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 6:57am
kevsta
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crude

was clearly playing and went along for the whole ride

although my bespoke "Reversometer" is indicating it's a bit overstretched here.

I will be buying on any corrections showing the right characteristics, it pisses me off on a daily basis how much range (money) there is in crude, and how little comparatively I make from it :)

2012's mission for me is to be in at the bottom of way more of these runs lol

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 8:17am
kevsta
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Euro

and I think this is the most likely path for next week

but WTFDIKnow? please nobody trade from anything I post, I'll tell you when I have cracked it reliably, as yet I have most definitely NOT :)

..have a good weekend everyone.

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 8:59am
l'idiot du village
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thats helpful...

@rtabit : I know 20-30 pips is a wide SL , but I havent used any up

til now - just exiting on fresh chart data. I have gone from 2-3 trades

a day to 18 yesterday...far too many . Really 1 or 2 excellent entry positions

better to pursue than 5 good ones. I am too prewired to go against the trend.

I've taken stupid long trades again a very bearish hourly chart - just because

the 5min gets waaay oversold. I'd like a secondary indicator that corroborated

RSI, but not sure which one. Will look a bit closer at some of the moving average options.

@Kevsta : I totally agree about WTI and Euro looking overbought. Might

even look at shorting Euro in Asian trade if it starts trending down. No

logic behind these 2 consecutive days of ridiculous strong Euro, and yes,

gold did look .....restrained.

Although I tend to avoid trading around big news events , GBP got caught

up in Thursdays events , and I caught the big reversal just after Draghi let

out the bad news. That was easily 'trade of the week' for me. I think that on

'big news days' the trick is to keep an open mind, try to pick up the trend and

go with it (usually starts 6 hours or so before meeting schedule), then be ready

to reverse course somewhere during the meeting if it disappoints. At the moment

I'm experimenting with all the major currency pairs, but will narrow this down to

3 or 4, to supplement gold and silver, which dont give enough buy/sell signals to

trade alone imo. Also am ok with some wti trades but extra caution with that baby !

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 9:48am
daveyboy
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On a non silver note, why

On a non silver note, why have you all convicted this man already?

This man's chance of a fair trial is zero and another lone nut story wrapped up.

On a silver note, the stock market I am anticipating will fall again soon and I think I will get an opportunity to buy back into silver around that 26 dollar or sub 25 dollar area as a result. In the meantime around 28, is a sell signal to me, but I could be wrong.

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 10:13am
redwood
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Looks to me like everything

Looks to me like everything is being well orchestrated as usual. We big "events" this week that could have crushed the metals and driven the dollar to the moon. Stocks holding their own quite well, despite a very degenerate economic picture.

Well its August. I would say get ready for metals to continue their climb, although as usual don't get too excited, it has to be well controlled. Stocks are ready to make their show for the grand gala in November. I say make your money now, in 3 months I think the show will be over.

N.B. Nugt processed approx. 19 million shares Thursday, about 8- 10 times its usual amount. The tape is speaking imo only.

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 11:23am daveyboy
redwood
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No conviction here.  Just

No conviction here. Just stating with my interpretation of course what has been reported. This is why I say we need more facts and I guess it will take about a year perhaps to get it all. Yes, he deserves a fair trial like everyone else.

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 12:12pm
Rico
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Pain Street Update (Public

Pain Street Update (Public Service Announcement):

1) Some happy fool from MN keeps posting about the incredibly good ag yields they're experiencing. Guess the high corn and bean prices are a mass delusion...

2) Big "discussion" on the silver content of Tomahawk missiles (!?!)--the government is supposedly shooting off as many as possible to "use up" all the silver...

3) Reading Ivar, their chief technician, is like experiencing Avi Gilburt flying on some circa '71 Windowpane...Art Linkletter rolling over in his grave...

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 12:41pm
l'idiot du village
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@daveyboy

I agree that the silver chart looks precarious,

but using 100 day and 200 day sma's, silver

is sitting above these lines. These , I believe,

are the indicators bank traders etc use to

confirm bullishness, and indictes that

'professional' money could be looking to get

long...(please correct me if i'm wrong ...)

Sat, Aug 4, 2012 - 1:46pm
redwood
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http://seekingalpha.com/artic

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 3:39am Rico
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@Rico, I come by here at

@Rico,

I come by here at times to get a view on how things are going and take the best bits of advice I see here. You are certainly right to comment on the likes of Avi and Ivars work as I agree their predictions have not been that precise of late, I will say that Avi pulled me out of a few thousand ounces of silver when it was at $41! I applaud any of these people for having the balls to make a prediction based on their own methods but predicting anything in a heavily manipulated market is not going to be accurate. Trading in a heavily manipulated market has caught out many longs and should only be left to the brave few who flip trades in short time.

However, I will say along with Turd and the many other metals sites and so called experts Morgan / Malone / Turk / Sprott to name but a few, that the fundamental cause of the 2008 crash has not changed and has only become worse, much worse. No one knows when the eye of the storm will pass and the turbulence of the returning storm will come exactly, but I value all predictions and suggestions to increase my own case of DYODD and I stack accordingly. Turds calls on the short coverings, COT reports and massive things to come in the metals gives me reason to increase my readiness for this possible move. Avi and Ivars both also have called for this coming move, Ivars said he thinks his charts are 2 months out and Avi called for the Bull to be let loose a couple on months ago. Only that famous saying of time will tell will let us know.

Prices might go down, don't forget they might also go up. Trade accordingly of course but, there are many people with much more knowledge than I who are saying now is a good time to buy in when prices are on sale. It's crazy how the sheeple only jump on the train once it has left the station. There are drums being beaten across the valleys and something appears to be warming up for a battle and for me it is time to start to replenish my stock and keep an eye on intelligence from the troops and see how things will play out.

Regards to all

Abe

SWAGER on. Silver - Wine - Art - Gold - Energy - Real estate
Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 7:14am redwood
kevsta
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Equities

redwood wrote:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/780381-broad-stock-market-outlook-remai...

Comment by PompanoFrog is esp. important.

I get that markets can continue to run up when they should be going down for much longer than most can imagine, however IMO US equities have to have that Wile Coyote moment somepoint soon. Good article on ZH yesterday regarding the markets continual front-running of potential aid, thereby ensuring it wont happen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/order-be-saved-spain-and-italy-must-first-be-destroyed

as I said yesterday, Im not comfortable shorting gold or silver from the top of their trading ranges because both can violently blow out on fundamentals or hot money flows at any point, but I feel much more confident shorting this at the top of this range, because IMO it belongs a minimum 2000 points lower based on non-QE fundamentals

decent divergence in play on the 4hr, check. stupid headfake short-covering rally on Euro driving everything up? check.

I'm not just hating on the Dow, I think there's a fundamental reversion due here

so unless we think Europe is solved and the Euro is going to trend upwards not downwards from here (and I dont) the probability is weighted towards a reality moment in US stocks. is everybody aware that some European stock markets have been down lower than their worst crisis lows of 08/09 these last few weeks?

With the Dow basically loitering around just under previous highs on the expectation of QE, I wonder how much more upside there actually is there, even if they do announce it? If gold was loitering just under the top of it's previous all time highs, instead of banging along support at the bottom of it's range, I'd be less confident in Dow direction, but it looks to me that over the intermediate term, the only realistic way is down

I will be looking for likely entries here this week if setups appear. if I try and get in on every decent looking rollover and down, one day I might just catch the big one.

or most likely get stopped out and then watch it run without me lol

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 7:33am kevsta
sixdollarsilver
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nice

kevsta wrote:

I will be looking for likely entries here this week if setups appear. if I try and get in on every decent looking rollover and down, one day I might just catch the big one.

or most likely get stopped out and then watch it run without me lol

Ha ha... Gotta laugh at that one! :)

@Abe - thanks for stopping by, always appreciate your input.

Sun, Aug 5, 2012 - 7:40am sixdollarsilver
kevsta
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sixdollarsilver wrote: kevsta

sixdollarsilver wrote:
kevsta wrote:

I will be looking for likely entries here this week if setups appear. if I try and get in on every decent looking rollover and down, one day I might just catch the big one.

or most likely get stopped out and then watch it run without me lol

Ha ha... Gotta laugh at that one! :)

if I didn't laugh I'd have to cry, the amount of times this has happened :)

trend software also agrees with me, this is right more often than it's wrong, but if we pushed up to a new high it just moves the bloody arrow to the new high so can only be used in conjunction with other strategies.

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..

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