Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 6:13am Ssgtrader
pailin
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Ssgtrader wrote: looks like

Ssgtrader wrote:

looks like reversing up ... maybe a false move down last night to confuse people.

I'm seeing typical weakness in PMs 3am-10am ET.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 6:35am
BlackHawk
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Slashing corn yields by the hour

https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/us-usa-drought-idUSBRE86F1D420120718

Although weather forecasters said some parts of the parched region might get some rain next week and help pull corn prices off near-record highs, analysts slashed their forecasts for corn production by another 7 percent on Tuesday, a Reuters poll found.

The soonest rain is expected in the Midwest is the middle of next week, said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather.

The new forecast calls for rains of 0.2 to 0.7 inch (5 mm to 18 mm) around the region, up from earlier outlooks of 0.1 to 0.6 inch.

"Based on my conversations with producers, I would say 75 percent of the corn crop in the heart of the drought is beyond help," said grains analyst Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting in Lafayette, Indiana.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 6:44am pailin
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Hi Pailin

maybe despite the over bullish sentiment, USD index is still going to move higher? Plus we should be worrying about the "fiscal cliff" now since market is supposed to be 6 months ahead of the real economy ?

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 6:55am
BlackHawk
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How to trade corn

article on seekingalpha is worth reading. They give list of stocks to watch that are married to the other gold. If you are trading corn, you might want to read the comments section too.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/722701-how-to-trade-increasing-corn-prices

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 7:05am
Ssgtrader
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gold and silver

read an article saying that demand in India and China is weak because of slow down in economy. For India, currencies depreciation weaken their purchasing power for the yellow metal.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 7:12am
Ssgtrader
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The End of the Bernanke Put is Here

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 7:38am Ssgtrader
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Exactly.  And that article

Exactly. And that article only addresses the internal political scene. The international one is much more serious. Increasingly it looks like war may be the solution to the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions. QE3 is not going to happen, which means something perhaps more destructive will. Unless of course some QE3 like event happens after the elections, but by then what would be the incentive for the A holes that rule.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 8:15am
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

Daily XAU/USD
High 1599.48
Low 1571.50
Close 1583.01
R3 1625.80
R2 1612.64
R1 1597.82
Pivot 1584.66
S1 1569.84
S2 1556.68
S3 1541.86
Weekly XAU/USD
High 1601.64
Low 1554.75
Close 1589.31
R3 1655.94
R2 1628.79
R1 1609.05
Pivot 1581.90
S1 1562.16
S2 1535.01
S3 1515.27
Monthly XAU/USD
High 1641.23
Low 1544.61
Close 1597.36
R3 1740.81
R2 1691.02
R1 1644.19
Pivot 1594.40
S1 1547.57
S2 1497.78
S3 1450.95
Daily XAG/USD
High 27.656
Low 26.794
Close 27.301
R3 28.568
R2 28.112
R1 27.706
Pivot 27.250
S1 26.844
S2 26.388
S3 25.982
Weekly XAG/USD
High 27.611
Low 26.462
Close 27.303
R3 28.937
R2 28.274
R1 27.788
Pivot 27.125
S1 26.639
S2 25.976
S3 25.490
Monthly XAG/USD
High 29.922
Low 26.116
Close 27.477
R3 33.366
R2 31.644
R1 29.560
Pivot 27.838
S1 25.754
S2 24.032
S3 21.948
Daily EUR/USD
High 1.23178
Low 1.21884
Close 1.22936
R3 1.24742
R2 1.23960
R1 1.23448
Pivot 1.22666
S1 1.22154
S2 1.21372
S3 1.20860
Weekly EUR/USD
High 1.23348
Low 1.21617
Close 1.22484
R3 1.25080
R2 1.24214
R1 1.23349
Pivot 1.22483
S1 1.21618
S2 1.20752
S3 1.19887
Monthly EUR/USD
High 1.27488
Low 1.22877
Close 1.26602
R3 1.33046
R2 1.30267
R1 1.28435
Pivot 1.25656
S1 1.23824
S2 1.21045
S3 1.19213
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 8:18am Ssgtrader
pailin
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Ssgtrader wrote: maybe

Ssgtrader wrote:

maybe despite the over bullish sentiment, USD index is still going to move higher? Plus we should be worrying about the "fiscal cliff" now since market is supposed to be 6 months ahead of the real economy ?

Dunno, but I'm finding it ez to be bullish PMs down here near support. Whether or not I'll start building a line and carrying longer than 24 hours is another thing...I'll take the s/l hit if I'm wrong. Market is six months behind the real economy; yes I know that's not what they say in WSJ and CNBS :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 8:38am
Rico
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Second day of uncertainty in

Second day of uncertainty in the grains. No one wants to be left at the top, with no oxygen for the trip down. I remain lightly long, w/one ZS contract.

Corn: toast! (you have to say it like TraderFlorida). I'm no farmer, I know farmers--and that crop is permanently impaired for the season, no matter what happens. Prices capped at some point by substitution, etc

Beans: Much more uncertain--could be salvaged. Again, I'm no expert, but it seems to me that if the crop continues to worsen, we will get another move up. Art has explained how substitution in beans is much less of an option. Now: from a technical standpoint, there's a gap waiting to be filled ~1550, and I could see that a weakening in corn, combined with non-commercial nervousness (i.e. evil speculators like me), could easily get us there. However, at that point, weather will re-assert, and pave the way higher.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 8:50am
Rico
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Post-satanic hangover day:

Post-satanic hangover day: everything is going to suck.

Not afraid to sit on the sidelines, read the doom-and-gloom on ZH, and keep an eye on my flooring contractor...

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 9:46am
Vypuero
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APH

haha - glad I was just looking at that one - they "raised guidance" and just went up like $5 and broke the chart.

also stopped out of Intel for small loss - not taking any new positions right now too crazy.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 10:08am
Vypuero
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Borg report from the front

There is a cluster of Borg algo spheres buying the SPY right now

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 10:48am
Rico
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Glad I kept my toe in the

Glad I kept my toe in the water...

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 11:16am
SilverWealth
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hard money trade

covered shorts on gold and silver in preMarket, not much but satisfying. Just read a friend's forward by Clive Maund. I see why people are attracted to the metals. They want to make a lot of money quickly. But its a hard money trade and dangerous almost all the time. Maund is again calling for two distinct possibilities, up or down, either could be a big move and the down move could be a fake out so he is sculpting an option's strategy.

Inherent in all of it is the draw of fast money imo. There may be easier ways to trade the Markets. At least Maund makes reference to the moving averages. But the obsession with strategy in this metals bear is endless. There are endless permutations. My feeling is because metals have paused for so long at these low levels that if it breaks there will be a serious fall finally and a washout. If they take out the downtrend lines above then there could well be a good bounce, who knows?

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 11:21am
Vypuero
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I can hardly read mainstreet now

half of the posts are blank because I have ignored everyone who is crazy, and it appears most are now. A few new ones join in every now and again. What's the point?

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 11:22am Gold Nugget
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Gold Nugget wrote: pailin

Gold Nugget wrote:
pailin wrote:

The only thing worse than dating a supermodel is marrying one. Tom Brady should have rung up Richard Gere, Billy Joel or Johnny Depp before buying the ring :)

I am sure all the super models say the worst thing to marry is some super football quarterback.

The approved comments are suppose to be that they are happily married.

Tom makes $18 million a year throwing around a ball. That is more than anyone here makes as a Capitalist Trader.

I wish my daughter had married Tom. Then she could stop mooching off of me. hahaha.

She makes $40 million, walking around.
Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 11:24am
SilverWealth
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Vyp

the accumulator is topping and turning down, careful.

like Bundchen, she will be farmed out, There Was Never Just One.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 11:53am
SilverWealth
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Weiner

https://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57474672-503544/anthony-weiner-n...

so they are a normal family again huh? I don't think so. Very high rate of recidivism amongst his type. Guys a little dickhead.

Wed, Jul 18, 2012 - 11:54am
Vypuero
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I saw that SW

meanwhile nothing I have is performing well - opposite day for me, longs down, shorts up, but that happens I can't let myself get too excited one way or another. I am not comfortable adding or doing anything much right now anyway, really.