Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 7:31pm
Rico
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Not sure what the complaints

Not sure what the complaints are about AGQ, but I find that every time I'm holding it, and silver goes up, I do just fine

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 8:33pm rtabit
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Rtabit

Thanks for the heads up, and the chart. I'm looking at a bit of resistance at 1.3200--1.3225, so we'll see how it plays out. Here's hoping we both make money tonight while Paul sleeps peacefully. GLTA

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:05pm D E
rtabit
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No problem, this board has

No problem, this board has saved me many times over the last few months, just trying to return favor. Try to hold out longer if you can, I'm stopped at 1.3195 and 1.3245 limit. There was really no good stop for this trade, I don't think Paul would have approved.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:34pm atlee
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Atlee, I really think the CME

Atlee,

I really think the CME underestimated the effect of NOT supporting the MF Global customers. They didn't want to get involved, and now they have seen business leave the exchange...

"CME Group is still struggling with fallout from last October's collapse of broker MF Global. Some $1.6 billion of customer money is still missing in the aftermath of MF Global's demise, hurting confidence in futures markets."

---- amazing how they let Corzine & Co screw the pooch under their noises.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:11pm rtabit
rtabit
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Shit, hope you didn't listen

Shit, hope you didn't listen to me, sorry. Good for my silver short anyway.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:50pm
Titus Andronicus
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Average Friday action

For 2012, the average Friday gold action has the following characteristics:

  • Overall, Friday has been a bad down day for gold (-$22 so far this year). This is second only to Wednesday which is about twice as bad.
  • Friday morning (i.e. London hours) has been great for the short leg of the time-of-day gold trade. (Again, 2nd only to Wed.)
  • Friday NY time seems to be OK to go long. Due to the next point, it has been rather weak for the time-of-day trade.
  • It seems that "they" like to smash gold a little bit extra on Fridays into the NYSE market open. Waiting until 10am to go long (instead of 8am or 9am) has been a great idea so far this year. (This is the only day-of-the-week for 2012 where this has been consistently true.) This behavior has been very consistent all year.
  • After the morning smash, Friday's average action is a pretty good bounce. If we get one, it is most likely best to book some/all profits early by the 11am borg hour.
  • If the Comex closes down over $5, buying at 3pm for the "Asian gold bounce" has been good.
  • HOLDING OVER THE WEEKEND: This seems to be a good idea only if you are able to sell on Sunday night between 8pm-10pm EST.

For 2011: Seems to be more or less the opposite of 2012 so far. Almost all of the above points were the opposite last year. There was a major shift in day-of-the-week patterns around New Year's.

These are all based on averages. Average action often does not match actual action. But the above should give you an idea of how I size and adjust my bets.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 11:09pm
Titus Andronicus
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Weekly Economic

Weekly Economic Calendar

Date

ET

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Apr 27

8:30 AM

GDP-Adv.

Q1

NA

3.0%

Apr 27

8:30 AM

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q1

NA

0.9%

Apr 27

8:30 AM

Employment Cost Index

Q1

NA

0.4%

Apr 27

9:55 AM

Michigan Sentiment - Final

Apr

NA

75.7

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 11:12pm
sixdollarsilver
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woah, winnie

Who would've guessed one courage quote from a grizzled old aristocrat would set so much off... love the passion here.

Just have to add that I believe the first example of 'carpet bombing of civilians' was in fact inflicted by the luftwaffe at the behest of Franco's nationalists as immortalised by Picasso in his grand artwork, Guernica.

I do however think it largely irrelevant as the massacre of civilians is as old as war itself. Is it that the method or the number are more important than the act itself? A question we could apply to our trading too perhaps... just to tie it all back in :)

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 12:00am rtabit
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BoJ

Left rates same, expanded shenanigans....didn't get to fade the initial jolt, but short did nicely...covered it all...now onto the euro zone...

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 12:33am sixdollarsilver
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re woah, winnie

No doubt Churchill goaded the principals into the Spanish massacre by some evil doing, perhaps as early as in World War I.

It is not yet clear what Churchill did to provoke Nazi atrocities visited upon the Poles.

Time for a gratuitous citation (this from the web page of the Ministry of Public Affairs of the Republic of Poland):

In a speech to Wehrmacht officers on August 22, 1939, Adolf Hitler outlined the tasks assigned to the German army in Poland:

“Our strength lies in our swiftness and our brutality. . . . I am indifferent to what the feeble Western European civilization will have to say about me. I have issued my orders and I will have anyone shot who utters even a word against them. The aim of the war is not to achieve a designated line, but the physical annihilation of the enemy. To this end I have prepared for use, at this time only in the East, my Totenkopf units, and have ordered them to kill (PLEASE NOTE THIS PORTION) men, women, and children of Polish origins or of the Polish mother tongue without mercy and without pity. Only in this way will we attain the living space that we need. Who mentions the extirpation of the Armenians today?”

Ah, but that's the army, not the fly boys, you say.

Gratuitous citation II, from The Atlantic, June 26, 2011:

In August of 1939, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union signed a non-aggression treaty. One week later, Germany invaded Poland and World War II began. The first attack of the war took place on September 1, 1939, as German aircraft bombarded the Polish town of Wielun, killing nearly 1,200.

I'm pretty sure the 1,200 were not all military. I'm also fairly certain that the British, at the behest of Churchill or others, were not conducting aerial bombing of German civilians in 1939

And, bringing it back to investing, perhaps it is not too great a reach to postulate that Churchill's brain survives in an Arizona cryogenic vault and it is he who is pulling the strings on gold and silver manipulation. Mayhaps he also is meddling in the Euro crisis, again forcing the Germans to do heinous things such as denying much-needed funding to the lesser lights of Euroland.

Or not.

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 12:55am
Gold Nugget
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Nice Discussion on the last page

I am a bad boy.

I should have made a copy of the url to pick up the pivots for gold and silver.

If anyone has them please post.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 5:19am
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

@Gold Nugget - pivots are right inside your Pro platform under Research and Ideas.

Daily XAU/USD
High 1661.40
Low 1641.72
Close 1657.02
R3 1684.72
R2 1673.06
R1 1665.04
Pivot 1653.38
S1 1645.36
S2 1633.70
S3 1625.68
Daily XAG/USD
High 31.323
Low 30.622
Close 31.089
R3 32.101
R2 31.712
R1 31.400
Pivot 31.011
S1 30.699
S2 30.310
S3 29.998
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 5:25am D E
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Euro land

Snored & covered @1,3175...a lucky camper on both actions....fading spikes on both yen & euro again...1.3220 & 80.60--65...tempt the fates once more against these lying charlatans... GLTA

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 6:44am
Spinny
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Morning gentlemen, I didn't

Morning gentlemen, I didn't have much time yesterday to post any thoughts. Then again, there doesn't seem to be jack happening in the markets anyway. Oh, how I long again for the days of trending markets. I'm not comfortable with much of anything right now.

I didn't like the actions in gold yesterday so I set a stop just above my entry price in ZSL. 11.07 to be exact, my average was 11.03, what was the low for the day you ask, why it was 11.07. I hit the bottom to the penny. Its ok though, I'm glad to be out.

Not sure what to think of the dollar, breakout or fakeout, hard telling.

I thought turd was nuts back when he drew a bowl on the chart and tried to call a bottom in gold, but I'm starting to think he may be on to something. A rounding bottom is a good bottom and the yellow metal is making higher highs. We have a trendline to contend with at around 1660. That will be the real test...

I've gotta give props to CK and others who where calling for a rally based on extreme negative sentiment. I think they may have it right. Everyone and their brother was expecting lower lows in the metals, things that would have pushed silver down by multiple dollars 8 months ago won't budge the price. There just doesn't seem to be any interest/liquidity right now. Either something needs to happen to get shorts to start piling on or here come the longs. All in all, it is an uber boring market right now. Looking for opportunity elsewhere. 100% Cash while hoping this is the bottom for metals for the sake of my physical.

Good trading to all.

What is the biggest public fallacy about market behavior? That markets are supposed to make sense. ~ Richard Dennis
Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 8:40am pailin
Gold Nugget
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AWESOME

pailin wrote:

@Gold Nugget - pivots are right inside your Pro platform under Research and Ideas.

WOW That is awesome.

All the stuff is right there. daily weekly monthly pivots for everything. Awesome.

Placed my orders. All set now.

If anyone is interested. Get this practice account and work it. Awesome EDUCATION.

All I can say is that you have to do this to figure out what is happening.

The last 2 nights nothing happened. now I am all set.

Dont Cha Love this Speculation. hahaha.

Right now I am watching THE CRASH OF 1929 on PBS TV it is part of the American Experience. You can watch it any time on your computer.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 8:51am
Art Lomax
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Soybeans

Good morning all. Fun week in the grains. Check out the July bean chart. Are we gonna trade $15 today? No one wants to be short over the weekend. I have been friendly the bean market all year, but didn't see this type of rally. Record fund longs so there could be profit talking anytime. (2008 highs were over $16).

China coming to US for old crop beans. This is what happens when Argy, the biggest meal supplier (60% of the world meal trade) has a 25% crop reduction.

Corn just can't seem to get going. Sizable sales to China and the market doesn't move.

$6 July seems like a buying area, but seems like China purchases factored in. Farmers need to sell new crop corn, I would think we see a lot of selling 5.50-5.60 Dec month.

IMO, will take a weather issue to get this market going, otherwise watch out below.

Spread trade came back yesterday, K/Z corn gaining 17c, N/X beans gaining 23c.

Caution trading the beans this summer, could be big like corn last year. Everyone have a great weekend. Thanks to everyone for the commentary. I've been following along on the crude trades.

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 8:53am Spinny
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Never mind

Dollar down on GDP, PMs & WTI stronger...should have stayed asleep...happier than PIIGS in shit....

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 9:00am
Cú Chulainn
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Churchill

I am sympathetic to those who repeat the CW on Churchill as their own opinions, since I was in the same boat not so many years ago.

Anyone who wants to understand the causes of the wars of the last century--how the banksters engineered WWI and its consequences in order to destroy the German economy--owes it to themselves to read the following book:

https://archive.org/details/prophecyfulfille00dela

Delaisi wrote this book in 1911 describing the bankster machinations that were leading to World War--patriotic American had it translated into English in 1915 to keep us out of that war that WC was working to embroil us in, just as he did from 1938-1941.

Churchill was nothing more or less than the tool of City of London banksters; the "great man" approach to history has no bearing on him. Americans who praise him are, sadly, buttboys of our deadliest enemies.

Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 9:18am
HappyNow
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Hey Spinny.  Looks like it

Hey Spinny. Looks like it took almost 5 days instead of 3 for silver to get back to $31.30 although the 3rd day it did get to $31.27. The Borg don't share their plans with me either, I'm just familiar with them.

I'll likely sell that stuff I bought Monday am today since it's about all I have left in the bucket after buying and selling this week.

Falling Pianos? Go ahead and buy them but sell before they hit the ground.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Fri, Apr 27, 2012 - 9:24am
SilverWealth
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Granny

well now the perception is gold as safe haven, and liquidity juice following GDP report and not risk/off as I had thought on the Spain thing.

GC took out the downtrendline at 1661 so looking to get long, think bottom is in, could change in 5 seconds but this I go on now. 31.35-45 area Silver is trendline, I think it will follow ES up. Miners too. ES now to 1420 and then 1440, this looks like a good wave as dollar is weak and not strong on the Spanish and GDP news. A week ago the Spanish news would have rallied the dollar and crashed the metals. Crazy market, perceptions changing every few days.