Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 3:12pm
atlee
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Pailin

Re gold nugget

I think someone is trying to have unauthorized sex with your system. At least they could blow in your ear or maybe buy you some flowers.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 3:27pm Gold Nugget
rtabit
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Gold Nugget wrote: Are there

Gold Nugget wrote:

Are there any 3X ETF's in precious metals?

USLV and DSLV. Smarter and more experienced traders say don't use them. Because I'm dumb and inexperienced I tend to use those mostly when trading stock market. One piece of advice I can offer and actually do (as opposed to offering advice to others and doing the opposite, which I do sometimes, no discipline), try not to hold over night and never hold over weekend (I've been smashed multiple times holding over weekend, usually on DSLV). I agree with Happy, forex is best for using pivots. I also agree with Atlee, ES at 1550 in May/June sounds good and looks good on the charts.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 3:31pm
redwood
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This may be premature but the

This may be premature but the reflexive tendency to day trade may be undercutting one's efforts right now. With the ES decisively exceeding 1388.50 the momentum is here. Best to buy and hold for a little longer than one day. At least with some stocks one can certainly cut into profits with overtrading.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 3:32pm atlee
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Funny

First, first laugh all day, atlee, except for this morning when I saw three hens crammed in the same kitty litter bucket laying their morning egg. They had plenty of room in the re-purposed file cabinet drawers, but NOOO, that was too easy. We're cheap around here.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 3:52pm
atlee
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CME

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 3:57pm
SilverWealth
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ES

they could be gunning this into the GDP number release tomorrow and the round number 1400 and then 'sell the news'.

I am out of my SSO trade today and will buy the selling under 1400 as long as it does not go beneath 1380.

LNG looks set to begin another downcycle after moving to new highs. Who knows?

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 4:49pm
pailin
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tweakers

I think some folks learn best through trial and error. GN, I wish you the best. Try not to lose too much real money!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 4:55pm
Corsair
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re: using pivots on AGQ

having used the pivot system (1 share at s1 (to be sold at r3), 2 shares at s2 (to be sold at r2) and 3 shares at s3 (to be sold at r1) since FEB on AGQ, I do not see any concern for the limited time of trade. Yes, the price can be smashed over the weekend - so? It can be smashed right after you nailed the s3. The key is too have 40-50% cash on hand in case it does happen. The pivot system is not for all. Then again, neither is trading. IMO, the pivot system is simple data entry - 100% stress free.

Cheers to Pailin for sharing it and providing answers to many questions over the past few months!!!

"The closest we get to perfection is writing our resumes."
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 5:04pm pailin
madcow
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pailin wrote: One "cheap"

pailin wrote:

One "cheap" example - I have not used any source of heat (hot showers aside) for the last three years. In New England. I layer. And love it. I do not have children, and would not do this if I did. The fiat saved (approx. $2700/winter) is pushed into physical gold and silver on a seasonal low basis (Jan/Feb) every year. I could give many other examples where I choose goods over services as a lifestyle, but don't want to alienate you folks too much :)

Damn you sound just like me (minus this year). I do use heat, but never set it above 55 degrees (live in the same area, new england). It sucks and i freeze, but i layer up. Or if i get desperate (someone else is over) i use the fireplace or electric heater (for small time frames.)

Ive never broke 150 on a heating bill and usually between electric and heat it balances out to almost nothing.

I know people who keep there heat on 75 and blow 500$ a month on it. CRAZY!

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 5:15pm Gold Nugget
Titus Andronicus
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Advice for Tinker Bell

@Gold Nugget,

I strongly suggest that you first establish that you understand and can make money from the system first. Then tinker with it. Otherwise, I suspect you are going to regret it.

Here was the sequence which I learned to trade the time-of-day gold trade:

1) I closely watched what I would have made had I actually done the trade. From this I could almost shoot myself from all the profits I missed. This pushed me to step #2.

2) I forced myself to just follow the rules 100%. This is the hardest step. This took a few weeks of trying hard before I could actually do it. Then I made some good money. I made sure I could follow the system 100% for several weeks.

3) I learned how to tinker with the system slightly, but always comparing my results to the straight the system. (The #1 tinker for me is stepping aside on Fed-BS induced crashes. Other tinkers are probably probably not worth the effort.)

Make sure you can do step #2 for a few weeks or a month. It can be very hard to sit on a position when the market turns against you. But that is the discipline required to do these types of strategies.

Be patient. Do #2 first.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 5:42pm
SilverWealth
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Spanish downgrade

ES waterfalling now. Tomorrow will probably be ugly. Spain is downgraded after hours.

This should jolt the dollar higher and send Norcini back to his padded cell for electric shock.

Risk on should be off now until ES can right itself on medication.

These Markets are nearly untradeable due to the confluence almost daily of all manner of bizarre vectors of influence. Others might disagree but I will prefer to er on the side of caution.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 5:59pm
Dr G
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@Corsair, AGQ strives to give

@Corsair, AGQ strives to give 2x the results of the London PM fix--so any gains had in NY trading will not be found in AGQ. In theory (and practice), the London PM fix could come in low while the Comex silver could have high gains, followed by a down draft in Asia and AGQ could have no gains or be down.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 6:16pm SilverWealth
D E
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Bernanke Buck

Spanish downgrade should help $ against Euro, so short Euro at 1.3191...Japan has slew of data coming out tonight, plus BoJ interest rate decision (nothing changing here IMO, but may be some twists & turns in easing somehow)...short Yen against dollar at 81...small positions for now, and will wait and see Japanese data tonight...Euro market should rock n roll manana...maybe "get down" would be more appropriate...PMs & WTI should back off...as always, my opinion, my trades...please do your own DD before you make your own trades...

GLTA

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 6:23pm firstsilver
Grigeo
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Is that like Gore invented the Internet?

Not really.

J.M. Spaight, C.B., C.B.E., Principal Secretary to the Air Ministry (RAF) -

"Hitler only undertook the bombing of British civilian targets reluctantly three months after the RAF had commenced bombing German civilian targets. Hitler would have been willing at any time to stop the slaughter. Hitler was genuinely anxious to reach with Britain an agreement confining the action of aircraft to battle zones."

"We began to bomb objectives on the German mainland before the Germans began to bomb objectives on the British mainland."

"Because we were doubtful about the psychological effect of propagandist distortion of the truth that it was we who started the strategic bombing offensive, we have shrunk from giving our great decision of May 11 1940, the publicity it deserves."

F.J.P Veale (British Jurist) - "It is one of the greatest triumphs of modern emotional engineering that, in spite of the plain facts of the case which could never be disguised or even materially distorted, the British public, throughout the Blitz Period remained convinced that the entire responsibility for their sufferings it was undergoing rested on the German leaders. Too high praise cannot, therefore, be lavished on the British emotional engineers for the infinite skill with which the public mind was conditioned prior to and during a period of unparalleled strain"...... "The inhabitants of Coventry, for example, continued to imagine that their sufferings were due to the innate villainy of Adolf Hitler without a suspicion that a decision, splendid or otherwise, of the British War Cabinet, was the decisive factor in the case."

'History will judge us kindly', Churchill told Roosevelt and Stalin at the Tehran Conference in 1943; when asked how he could be so sure, he responded: 'because I shall write the history'.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 6:31pm
Vypuero
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R1 on Gold

...so that means I am short today instead of chasing up and worrying about being stopped.

I have figured out a system to move through the options now too. Hopefully more profitably, by transitioning the months during pivot moves - i.e. buy a new PUT in after I get into a short, and a new CALL when I go long, and then sell the old position on the opposing end. This gives me a small overlap period so I maintain some protection while looking to unload the older options at better prices.

On a big move, cover the option (which I did on gold this time to get a profit) to protect your profit on the underlying option. This made my gold long option profitable, for example. Generally I am buying 60 days out and looking to cover at around the 30 day timeframe. Doing this lets me unload around the option expiry for the previous month, which tends to be more volatile, so I can get the better moves.

At least that is the theory. We will see what it does in practice. Options are hairy buggers, but I am starting to learn how they work without getting burned.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 6:37pm
Vypuero
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I don't think Churchill was evil but...

It is clear, now, after the fact, that bombing civilians was counter productive for both sides on many levels. Bombing of infrastructure was far more effective. Keep in mind too, the bombing was not working well until the USA joined, the losses were terrible, and even then it was not until Germany was losing already that it began to bite - destroying oil and rail was the greatest value of bombing, as it paralyzed German mobility. In the Pacific, destroying Japanese shipping (by air and sub) was more effective than bombing as well.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 6:46pm
Corsair
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@ Dr G

..."so any gains had in NY trading will not be found in AGQ."

That doesn't sound like the results I have experienced, but I haven't tracked the price over each market with such detail.

"In theory (and practice), the London PM fix could come in low while the Comex silver could have high gains, followed by a down draft in Asia and AGQ could have no gains or be down."

This may be true, but appears to be of little concern to what I have experienced on a daily basis since starting this system.

4/3, bought s1 @ 55.18 - 4/4, bought s2 @ 53.20 and s3 @ 50.42 = all full with cps = 52.14

4/5, sold r1 @ 52.04 (loss of $60) - no trades 4/9 thru 4/11 - 4/12, sold r2 @ 53.36 (profit $488), sold r3 @ 54.81 (profit $534) = flat again.

Since then I got the s1 @ $52.48, and the s2 @ $49.95 - just missed the s3 yesterday by 0.11 cents, which would have been sold today @ $50.11. My current cps = $50.79 with s1 and s2 (1/2 loaded).

I am not making HUGE money. Maybe 4-5% in a week or so. I'll take that all day long.

"The closest we get to perfection is writing our resumes."
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 7:00pm
Dr G
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Sounds like you've had good

Sounds like you've had good results. 5% in a week is serious stuff. I'm interested in your methods and may try them myself. I'm only rehashing what the AGQ prospectus says:

ProShares Ultra Silver seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of silver bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London.

​Of course London only has a single fix for silver, the PM fix.

The VelocityShares 3x long silver (USLV) may be another option, but it is not based on a London fix but an index (the S&P GSCI Silver Index). Bloomberg ticker SPGSSIP. That gives not only more leverage but also a greater "trading" period for volatility to occur.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 7:09pm D E
rtabit
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D E wrote:Spanish downgrade

D E wrote:

Spanish downgrade should help $ against Euro, so short Euro at 1.3191

GLTA

I'd be careful on that trade, have look at twenty minute chart. I stole this fork from Coghlan Capital, Paul the guy that does the Morning Analysis told us at webinar at noon that he expected it to drop and hit that line, did exactly that, within maybe 3 pips, I made a lot of money of this trade, I was already short Euro but this info gave me the confidence to wait to sell at 1.3181. He doesn't tell you what to trade, he teaches you how to use pitchfork system. I can not endorse this site enough, maybe best investment I've ever made, I joined about three weeks ago. No one asked me to do this, and to be honest I don't want to, but I have to give credit where credit is due. Looking like Euro may drop further as I type this, but I wouldn't trade that news, I'd trade this chart. Long Euro at 1.3179 just now.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/EUR/media/f03444d6-3f6b-4a62-b08b-0acad3aaaa14

https://www.coghlancapital.com/subscribe

Edit: Paul recommends not to trade when big news comes out and not to open positions at night, so if this trade goes wrong it's my own fault, but I don't think it will, else I wouldn't have done it.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 7:14pm
Corsair
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@ Dr G

the method is nothing but pure data entry. every morning I check the pivots and then enter in my buy/sell orders depending on what is needed. some days I get a price better than expected if silver is getting whacked. some days I do not enter in the buy orders until 8am open. the action on 4/23 is a good example of this.

So yes, the system does require some thought. the simple data entry comes from the buy/sell price. I do not have to worry about that. I just enter in the s-level or r-level. what I find most amazing is how close I get to the low/high of the day using these numbers. Like 4/25, when I was 0.11 cents lower than the low - dang!

I have played with the forex system and do like it. I am so close to opening up an account there, but I want to raise more cash, $15K is enough to do 50, 100, 150 - but I prefer to have 100, 200, 300 or greater.

"The closest we get to perfection is writing our resumes."
randomness