Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 7:33am Gold Nugget
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Gold Nugget wrote:Well this

Gold Nugget wrote:

Well this is suprising to me. I need to know how you will try to unload these 12. will you do it by getting out on the first R1 2 & 3. or will you use other ideas. will you hold for a profit. or try to get out even.

How will I unload? Ez. Sell into the pivot resistance levels same as usual, no rush, no panic. No big deal.

Hoping today to sell into one or more of these numbers:

R3 32.229
R2 31.627
R1 31.165

Re: making small money back, that all depends on how small your account is to begin with. It's true you can't really trade with less than $10k. But then why would you? A day trader playing with less than that is just waiting to give the house his money. Like going to Vegas with $200 in your pocket...why bother??? I think the minimum number to ride the pivots correctly (and baby...pay off they do!) is $30k. But seriously, I hope you didn't think this scheme was guaranteed 10% ROI weekly or something like that? Doesn't exist unless you're a bankster :)

You'll have to just see how it works on Pro over coming weeks, but try just use the system straight out vs. tweaking it for maximization. That will not work out for you. I promise!

So, even after the gyrations of the last 2 weeks, I closed last Friday green and if we get over 31 will do so again this week. What can I say, life is wonderful :) :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 7:46am
HappyNow
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Silver

Sometimes I'm on the move too much to be able to post here. Bought AGQ twice at 1st and 2nd low. Had a sell price in but needed silver at 30.75 to hit it and it didn't. I'm about 80% in now. Looks like I'll be able to get out in good green.

Gold1776 Sorry to hear about your loss. I have reached the conclusion any trader has to go through that to make the risk real in the future. Come back when you're ready.

Spinny - congrats on the ZSL.

Gold Nugget thanks for posting your experience. I need to move to futures/FOREX because trading 9:30-4:00 leaves me out of too many moves and I think I have the discipline now to manage it. And Pailin of course keeps doing the gruntwork of putting up the pivots :) If I open a practise account I'll let you know how it goes.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 8:06am
redwood
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sixdollarsilver

Please quote more of Churchill. Love that man. He suffered terribly from bipolar disorder with protracted depressive periods, but his brilliance always shone through. We will have leaders like that again but it seems this is not the time.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 8:17am
Titus Andronicus
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Today's doublespeak

Date

ET

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Apr 26

8:30 AM

Initial Claims

04/21

NA

386K

Apr 26

8:30 AM

Continuing Claims

04/14

NA

3297K

Apr 26

10:00 AM

Pending Home Sales

Mar

NA

-0.5%

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 8:28am
Rico
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What a day--nothing looks

What a day--nothing looks good, up or down...Thought I might have a go at CL, but it's stuck in no-man's land, s are PMs, the softs, etc.

Does this mean I have to go make myself useful? What a thought...

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 8:58am pailin
Gold Nugget
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Placing my orders

pailin wrote:

How will I unload? Ez. Sell into the pivot resistance levels same as usual, no rush, no panic. No big deal.

Hoping today to sell into one or more of these numbers:

R3 32.229
R2 31.627
R1 31.165

Well you have purchased twice at all 3 levels. so you have 2 bought at S1 on Monday and Wednesday one each day at different prices. So if today R1 gets hit do you immediately sell both or just one.

I went and bought 6 monopoly money units at approximately the ave price of the Monday and Wednesday so I can say that the R1 price of 31.165is above the ave price of the 2 purchases so it makes sense to sell both at the first R1. My ave price is slightly higher than your ave price as I bought at the market at the time. My ave cost was $30.71 where I think the proper ave was maybe 5 cents less or maybe a dime less.

Anyway thanks for the pivots. I have to run and place the monopoly money orders. I could not get them placed last night. I could not figure out how to place them on this software. also have another software anomaly this morning. have to contact the nice people on Chat window. chat works real nice at this company. fast and efficient.

Rats I messed it up. I placed orders to sell 2 at each price. OH MAN. This is FUN.

I am really enjoying this. I am having a really fun time doing these orders.

It is really helping me understand everything.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:28am Gold Nugget
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Gold Nugget wrote:pailin

Gold Nugget wrote:
pailin wrote:

How will I unload? Ez. Sell into the pivot resistance levels same as usual, no rush, no panic. No big deal.

Hoping today to sell into one or more of these numbers:

R3 32.229
R2 31.627
R1 31.165

Well you have purchased twice at all 3 levels. so you have 2 bought at S1 on Monday and Wednesday one each day at different prices. So if today R1 gets hit do you immediately sell both or just one.

Being a rather conservative speculator, I'll generally sell 1/6 of whatever position I hold at R1. That's the system - designed to get you out of the way with profit (or less loss) whenever possible. However, 30 is an interesting number and I may actually only sell 1/12 at R1. I expect price to move back into the 31-32 range next week. Not sure if I want to tweak yet, only considering because we've created (at least temporarily) what I consider a rounded bottom at 30. We'll see. Most likely I'll dump 1/6 per plan :)

I'm glad you having fun (I told you so!) and starting to "get" it.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:37am redwood
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redwood wrote:Please quote

redwood wrote:

Please quote more of Churchill. Love that man...We will have leaders like that again but it seems this is not the time.

Eh. Churchill/Lusitania/WWI. @sshole.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/orig/raico-churchill1.html

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:46am
SSK
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Just bought some POT at

Just bought some POT at 42.71.

Gonna take Atlee's advice. Gotta diversify more than LNG and a couple of oil specs.

Already up.

Oh GDX, you little slut. Already pulling up the knickers and the bell has barely rung.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:52am
tallydynasty
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Titus

Miner valuations: Perhaps a better way to look at those stocks is through (NAV) Net Asset Value.

I would imagine some of these metrics are at very low levels. At some point we are going to see some major M&A activity from those with Cash or the means to finance attractively.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:54am
moderator
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Anyone seen Art?

I'd love to know what he's doing ahead of the next planting intentions report.

Beans are trying to break higher but it looks to me like a false break.

Art, thoughts??

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 9:58am
Patton
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Pivots during Major Moves

Pailin:

I have been experimenting with the Pivots and like the fact that it I can see the benefits of having a system that helps avoid over thinking your trades. I also now see how the cost averaging works and has kept me making money when I would have lost money in the past.

There is also a lot less stress when you are now thankful for down days so you can reload.

How did you fair in September when the charts started to waterfall? Did you keep buying the S's on the way down and did that keep your average price for positions in a range that you could profit when it finally started hitting some R's?

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:09am Patton
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Patton440 wrote: How did you

Patton440 wrote:

How did you fair in September when the charts started to waterfall? Did you keep buying the S's on the way down and did that keep your average price for positions in a range that you could profit when it finally started hitting some R's?

Unfortunately I wasn't employing the pivots with any regularity until Oct/Nov. And even then I was experimenting and breaking the "rules" to try to sweeten my returns. That's where my "don't tweak" mantra comes from - screwing myself plenty good last fall :)

I can only point to the 02/29-present suckiness in silver as a long downward trend test of silver pivots. Even playing only from the long side, my account has a greater total balance than it did on 2/28 and we're a full 20% lower (from 37.50). I'm up about 20%. So that's a 40% outperform on buy/hold in 8 wks. And again mismanaged too from a trend perspective (not playing short). I'm pretty sure I'd be friggin' loaded if I'd played both long and short :)

When I write that I've closed every Friday in 2012 green I actually mean that my total account balance is higher than the previous Friday close. Every single week in 2012. Quite the system until it breaks. If it does?? I'll definitely let everybody know if it starts falling apart!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:10am
HappyNow
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Lightened up a little

Got the price today I couldn't get yesterday. Still in over 50%.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:36am pailin
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pailin wrote: Patton440

pailin wrote:
Patton440 wrote:

How did you fair in September when the charts started to waterfall? Did you keep buying the S's on the way down and did that keep your average price for positions in a range that you could profit when it finally started hitting some R's?

Unfortunately I wasn't employing the pivots with any regularity until Oct/Nov. And even then I was experimenting and breaking the "rules" to try to sweeten my returns. That's where my "don't tweak" mantra comes from - screwing myself plenty good last fall :)

No problem. I was wondering how well it faired through a full meltdown. I think you would still end up better off than my normal trading. I took a beetling because of stupidity. I fully understand that not every trade is a winner but if more win than loose I am good.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:47am
SilverWealth
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Pailin on Churchill

time and place my friend, time and place.

Would you prefer Dickensonian exploitation to Churchill's 'collectivism'?

all must be judged in its historical context imo.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:52am
SilverWealth
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Lng

Granny on the way to 19 now. Breakout.

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 10:53am pailin
Gold Nugget
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Scalping in a Bucket Shot

pailin wrote:

Being a rather conservative speculator, I'll generally sell 1/6 of whatever position I hold at R1. That's the system - designed to get you out of the way with profit (or less loss) whenever possible. However, 30 is an interesting number and I may actually only sell 1/12 at R1. I expect price to move back into the 31-32 range next week. Not sure if I want to tweak yet, only considering because we've created (at least temporarily) what I consider a rounded bottom at 30. We'll see. Most likely I'll dump 1/6 per plan :)

I'm glad you having fun (I told you so!) and starting to "get" it.

I agree the prospects are excellent that a nice bottom was made at 30 and a higher range will happen. Thanks for this post. It really helps me to get the hang of it now. A little flexibility is OK here.

I do not particularily like the bid ask spread. It also seems to me as it goes up they make the customer buy price go up and the sell price stays down. This is like a Jesse Livermore Bucket Shop where they expect everyone to lose all their money to them.

For me I could not understand it at all until I got into it last night. it makes sense. What helps is focus on the position at hand.

wow we might hit R1 today. I decided to leave my mistake. if I sell 2 at R1 instead of the proper 1 that is ok for learning and monopoly money. I will however make an attempt to get 1 back in if it dips a little. Gold is nice today.

P.S.

I went and bought some potato chips to watch the show.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 11:02am
SilverWealth
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Churchill off topic

Video unavailable

probably actor's exaggeration but good story anyway

Thu, Apr 26, 2012 - 11:04am SilverWealth
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SilverWealth wrote: time and

SilverWealth wrote:

time and place my friend, time and place.

Would you prefer Dickensonian exploitation to Churchill's 'collectivism'?

all must be judged in its historical context imo.

False choice between lesser of two evils. No fans of relativism here in Pailin-House :)

I prefer being left completely alone to succeed or fail at my own accounting. I also prefer eye-for-eye justice, dispensed by rule of local community (not state, not country, most definitely not NWO).

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
randomness