Pailin's Trading Corner

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Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 6:21pm
Perfidious Albion
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Risk reward ratio

edit: Oops s'possed to be on Main st with the funny's . I'll leave it up.

TZ-DT Yes the early morning short side has been doing nicely apart from stumbling to the box at 5am So has scalping the daily swing back up after the morning fix & back down for London close. Been leaving the long side most of this week.

Humble newbie listening and learning. A lemming doesn't last long these days..
Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 6:55pm
SilverWealth
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Atlee

Manning goes to Broncos. This is his best chance at a SuperBowl I think.

I just rebalanced in UCO, Traded out of some bought lower and bought some refiners is all.

And its the weekend. Anything goes and news management will be at its finest as always.

Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 7:13pm
redwood
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1.86 M shares SLW traded

1.86 M shares SLW traded after hours ranging in price from 33.18 (closing price) to 33.88. Several hedge funds involved. Interesting.

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/slw/after-hours

Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 7:56pm
tonym9
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pslv small loss balanced

pslv small loss balanced against my small jag gain...zero day. glad I didn't spend it on the computer.

made no progress in the garage either....mating a early 70s to a late 70s tranny linkage is kickin my butt. sometimes i wish i were into chebbies

flat

thought about carrying some zsl over the weekend but no. will await monday 6am cst

SIM: enjoyed your posts while you were here

have a good weekend all

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 10:11pm SilverWealth
Sockeye
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SilverWealth wrote: Upside in

SilverWealth wrote:

Upside in some of these is phenomenal if War does come. Just pull up 5 year charts on VLO or many of them. Then again if peace breaks out they could all crash quickly, who knows?

Yes Imagine the big announcement

THE 5000 YEAR WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST SUDDENLY PEACE BREAKS OUT UNEXPECTEDLY.

Israel decides to allow Iran to drop nuclear bombs on Jerusalem. The Jewish said. Easy Come Easy Go. What is all the fuss about? We shall be happy in heaven. The world sure sucks.

More likely is the headline.

Israel blows up Iran nuclear site and Iran uses its one nuclear bomb to run a test explosion in downtown New York City. Federal Reserve declares all the gold in New York Federal Reserve Banks to be radio active and no longer of any value. Bernanke was seen taking out the trash.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 10:20pm SilverWealth
BlackHawk
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SW, I agree, so why telegraph?

The US has been itching for this fight; warm-up practice with Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan and Afghanistan is over. Make no mistake, Iran is the big one on the way to the United States of Amarabia. Syria is a convenient distraction. Maybe we will land Marines there for starters after an "unfortunate" incident involving rocket exchanges between Gaza and Israel or Iran and Israel. Israel "responds" to defend herself and the USA always supports Israel in all things, as recently stated by the Prez. The prez joins in b/c we "have to support our ally." He would "rather Israel had pursued measured diplomatic responses, but that is not relevant after the 'grievous breach of international laws and UN treaties' committed by Iran." Can you hear the speech in your head?

Israel has prolly agreed to give the Prez cover for going to the war he wants, since the election is coming and financial collapse is inconveniently always lurking now. It has to be cover for what would otherwise become very unpopular US intention and collaboration in yet another unjustifiable war. War is made in the USA. There is absolutely no imminent threat from Iran, nuclear or otherwise.

Iran allies are Russia, China, North Korea maybe some Islamic zones in Africa, like Nigeria. Africa is really uncertain in its alignment. I would avoid investment exposure there, like Shell or ????

A whole lot of (us) useless eaters will die as collateral damage. A whole lot of war profits and energy annexation will occur back here in the "world", in our glorious free enterprise system.

Edit: Lehigh takes down Duke. Beware the small but determined adversary. Assume nothing.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 1:52pm
atlee
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Weekend Weeklies

Weekend Weeklies with Atlee A-hole

My opinion and all from the net dania charts Silver Gold $ and WTI

draw your fib retrace and fans free hand using the lines tab

But first:

Video unavailable

Silver

approximate the time diff between major turns. Looks like next is mid April between 26 and 30. Watching but little interest until something changes

Gold

same thing but I am seeing good possibility of 1535 area. Will acquire more NGD $8 and EXK 6.75 to 7.95

$

82 gives way and 84 in cards to me

WTI

Weekly. Look closely. That is a bullish flag forming just like the one before it. Silver did this in its hay day when we were climbing the ladder. I see 115 then 122. Big swings in this and it is the one you buy on the big down days when the bears are growling and crowing.

What are the fundamentals to justify this? Don't know Don't care. It will be explained to me when it happens.

Good luck. Hope you view the action as opportunity rather than spilled milk.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 2:03pm
Rico
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@Atlee, Agree.  PMs,

@Atlee,

Agree. PMs, especially SI, utterly at the mercy of SPX. Even if SPX continues up, PMs could still suffer by continued risk-on asset allocation profile. God forbid the SPX go down significantly--SI will get obliterated.

Until the Big Money gets re-interested in PMs, they are going nowhere, and all the apocalyptic bleating in the world is not going to change that fact.

As for oil, I have no freaking idea, although I have been having some modest success with it recently, just playing the intraday chart. Coffee and the long bond are finally working for me, these days, though.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 2:43pm atlee
Spinny
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Is the reverse head and

Is the reverse head and shoulders on gold even worth looking at. If 1580 hold that formation would signal upside around $2000 by mid-summer? For all you experienced TA guys, what does it take for the H&S formation to become null and void? A close below $1570? Would appreciate any wisdom as I will probably go long around 1580-1600....

Same thing on silver. I know I already posted these charts once but nothing much has changes since the 15th.....

What is the biggest public fallacy about market behavior? That markets are supposed to make sense. ~ Richard Dennis
Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 4:15pm
SilverWealth
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Atlee and others

before I take my one hour swim in the rain today, thanks to Atlee and others for the takes.

I concur. The reverse H&S imo is often sited when price is moving against a technician who is very directional. Morris Hubbart is seeing more reverse H&S patterns on his charts than Unicorns in his dreams. He is a true commodity bug and prospector and uses large amounts of capital to fall back on as his plan B. He fails continually to warn his subscribers whenever GDX hits 57-58 which has been innumerable times before. Its a red flag area like entering Fukushima. You do not hold long miners at 57-58 GDX unless you enjoy being sodomized.

I don't care what anyone says about last week. On Tuesday Gold suddenly became a 'safe haven'? Say what? After it had traded in high correlation with ES as a risk on asset for months? That was a complete about face and any 'technician' who saw that one coming certainly did not anticipate it in print. You cannot trade that. Its a perception change regarded after the fact and people should not beat themselves up about it. OIL had traded in tandem with Gold and miners and Stocks up until that pt. Then Gold was shat out the back end and suddenly people are rotating into banks? Sorry, not foreseeable unless your Nemo after his conversion. And I vomit when techies like Norcinni, however well-intentioned they may be, rationalize the action after the fact. He seems like a good guy but he is entered in the London Olympics 100 meters dash this summer in his sagging munsingwears against Usain Bolt, good luck to him.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 4:41pm
atlee
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Silver

This is good succinct silver technical analysis. You might want to book mark this site and visit it it from time to time.

Highly recommend this

https://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/silver-weekly-technical-out...

SW:

I played the banks for the stress test. I said well in advance I was long JPM with April calls. I was also long C with April calls and even after they failed they still blasted off. I got out Thursday close because of OE Friday.

You can't fight these guys and win. So why try. You know they aren't going to let the Banks down. Look at BAC. If I wasn't thinking so much I would have bought calls on that too. Only wanted 2 so chose JPM and C. JPM had best chart C was second.

They are not letting the S&P fail either. They want you in equities. That sucker is going to 1550.

Everyone on this board talks about Obama re election. Well there are powerful people who run this game who would like to see him gone. So stop thinking things will not happen because they will hurt his re election chances. They may happen for just that reason.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 4:50pm atlee
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@atlee re: pol's

Atlee,

You have great comments.
Congrats on taking that position on the banks. JPM and C (WF and BAC also) are clearly controlling market valuation through "creative" accounting.

The election is a toss up.

If the Democratic Party's power brokers are thinking that they can not hold the interest rates down, they may let the Romney go in just to screw the GOP for another four years of bad econ. Then, they would be able to ride into DC in 2016 as the "alternative".

My view is that the GOP is split between some who want to control power for immediate gain and others who are satisfied with not controlling the White House in order to continue to take over Congress. If Obama is in the WH and GOP controls Congress, they will nullify his power and then blame Obama for the lousy economy (virtually guaranteeing their victory in 2016).

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 9:26pm
SilverWealth
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my take

Manning looks like the Titans now.

I watched him leave the facility with Elway and there seemed to be too much distance, maybe its just the jock in both of them.

Titans have thrown the kitchen sink into their offer.

Congrats on the banks Atley. I pay very little attention to the news and did not even know about the stress tests in advance. But I'm pretty lazy and will have to summon even more energy to look at the bigger picture. All the people I read and all the stuff I follow and not a whisper about the banks beforehand, too bad for me I guess, but if I'm lucky the sun may come up tomorrow.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 9:46pm
csquared13
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Buying opp...

for RIG and CVX?

https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/18/us-brazil-chevron-spill-idUSB...

just a thought..i don't hold positions in either.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 10:09pm
Pete
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Silver and Gold view 3/17

Technically these charts are very bearish IMO. Could take weeks to play out to the downside for an important low.

[IMG]https://i40.tinypic.com/eq3v5e.png[/IMG]

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 11:45pm
redwood
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"I don't care what anyone

"I don't care what anyone says about last week. On Tuesday Gold suddenly became a 'safe haven'? Say what? After it had traded in high correlation with ES as a risk on asset for months? That was a complete about face and any 'technician' who saw that one coming certainly did not anticipate it in print."

Its precisely because of the above that I continue to question all the TA that is cited, even though I agree with the interpretation of the data. The general theme of all the articles thus far seem to heavily suggest a downward trend but no one is yet confirming it. The USD is vulnerable, both long-term and imminently.

Jim Willie in his March 9/12 report:

TEETERING PETRO-DOLLAR STANDARD

The Iran sanctions have undercut the USDollar more than any other single item. The Petro-Dollar is at risk. Many times in my articles, a warning has been scribed that the Dollar Kill Switch is ready on the wall, fully constructed, awaiting word to flip the switch. Someday in the not too distant future, the Saudis will announce acceptance of non-US$ payments. They have already made the supporting decisions toward this highly important step, related to Persian Gulf security enforcement. The numerous bilateral oil trade deals with Iran have become an epidemic that infects the USDollar in its unilateral dominance for trade settlement. One big reason Saddam Hussein was removed was his decision to accept Euro payments for crude oil. Another was to steal his gold, just like what happened in Libya. Another was to abrogate oil contracts made between Iraq and Russia as well as between Iraq and China. So as the many bilateral deals are struck with Iran, the USDollar foundation in trade settlement is crumbling, in parallel to the sovereign debt crumbling (see PIGS debt), in parallel to the USTreasury Bonds crumbling (see foreign creditor departures). The bunker busters might drop, but the real damage is to the stable catbird seat for the USDollar itself in trade settlement. Such trade is conducted less and less in US$ terms. Asia and the Middle East are leading the movement away from the USDollar.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:10am
SilverWealth
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Redwood

Jim Willie is great, I love the guy and he writes with great geo-political perspective and has an exceptional mind. But he is a futurist. In time what he says may most definitely play out but in the short and intermediate term I would never underestimate the power of the Matrix, of the U.S. Government, its military and of Mr Smith. Keep in mind how many times and for how long Neo and Morpheus tried to kill off Mr Smith.

"Someday in the not too distant future..." could be 5 years from now? 10 years from now? No one knows.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 8:30am SilverWealth
Rico
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SilverWealth wrote: "Someday

SilverWealth wrote:

"Someday in the not too distant future..." could be 5 years from now? 10 years from now? No one knows.

Turd should put that on the masthead, SW! Underestimating the power of the people who run the Big Show is an extremely, um, unsophisticated point-of-view...

I just can't take this end-of-the-world nonsense, anymore--here, or anywhere else. That Jim Willie stuff is just more of the same ol' horseshit, and will NOT make anyone money. Long interest rates tick up this week, and it's the end of the dollar?? What kind of unadulterated crap is that??

Sorry about the rant, but the whole PM-shilling, doomsday "industry" needs to pipe down, and grow up--or they are going to find their business model in suspended animation for another 20 years, and who is that going to help?

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:13am Rico
atlee
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Rico

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:46am
daveyboy
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Completely concur and since

Completely concur and since the fallback position is manipulation, then since this supposedly continues unabated, then what value can we even put into the words and predictions of the so called bulls?. It comes across as very arrogant in fact and very off putting.

Brother John with his revelation that tens of millions of ounces had been sold and yet only causing a 1 dollar drop, was the final straw. Trade, trade, trade, it's all you can do, we will see absolute panic if the price not only falls but stays rooted to a certain lowly position for a while.

In fact, that panic or uncertainty is very obvious in the bullion vaults, when it's barely above spot price, such a contrast to mid last year/summer when no one wanted to sell and the silver being exchanged was new silver and now the existing holders are panicked.

You are right, barring the end of the world, this may play out for years and years and if the former happens, what solace will a grand spike in metals give? and if the latter happens, those who just hold and hold and buy and buy are going to get severely screwed.

randomness