Pailin's Trading Corner

42422 posts / 0 new
Last post
Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 2:22pm
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10895

the sparrow that couldn't

Just watched a sparrow fly between screen and window, now trapped. The casement window slightly ajar provided entry and therefore exit. Its mate chirped and pleaded for its getaway, but the sparrow pounded away at the clear glass insisting it give way. Flapping its wings in desperation beating itself silly against the glass, its mate now hysterical, the small mindless creature persisted.

At a moment's notice, calmly it looked intently around the frame clearly catching the breeze. Maybe it will figure it out I thought but no chance. Barricading itself in the narrowing angle of the frame, soon to have a mycocardial infarction, its mate now in paroxysmal hysteria, I watched. Yup, just like humans.

Then without a hint, the sparrow quietly climbed down the lower frame and like a ballistic missile fled. Maybe there's a chance for humans after all.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 5:39pm
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

Daily Pivot Points

Just caught up with the weekend comments.

You guys sure are working hard trying to figure things out, perhaps over thinking? I guess if you're making money...I am too but w/o the thinking. I'm enjoying all that free time. And I guess it's resolved that it's all slow motion management and fear/prep is foolish? O - K. Well I'm not basing my future on your rosy optimism. Cuz you won't be there to take care of me when you're shown to be wrong and I'm flat-footed and empty-handed. I"m more negative on everything than I've ever been, even though all my non-PTC business interests are soaring. People buying tons of useless sh!t (like art) at breakneck speed and ever higher prices is a contra indicator to me. Like the Japanese buying everything not nailed down and setting records too in 1989. So I disagree with most of you, have now said so, and won't bore anybody with repetitiveness.

Weather is getting nice again, I'd rather be outside more and here less :)

And with that...here's your pivots for tonight's open -

Daily XAU/USD
High 1665.18
Low 1639.50
Close 1659.75
R3 1695.80
R2 1680.49
R1 1670.12
Pivot 1654.81
S1 1644.44
S2 1629.13
S3 1618.76
Daily XAG/USD
High 32.773
Low 32.128
Close 32.515
R3 33.461
R2 33.117
R1 32.816
Pivot 32.472
S1 32.171
S2 31.827
S3 31.526
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 6:07pm
SilverWealth
Offline
-
Rectal Springs, CA
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
3873
15406

regarding Silver

Redwood thats good stuff, thank you very much.

Regarding Silver. I am thinking now there is a strong reason for its price suppression which will be ongoing. It has so many key industrial and military applications the Government will not tolerate its true price. Satellites,all manner of critical electronics,solar etc. If Silver went to its fair price just imagine how expensive all this stuff would be and the repurcussions of that in the S&P and in the Military.

this is a powerful reason to suppress its price on a monthly basis. National Security. I am beginning to think its a fool's market. It is so criminally dominated that one has to be a complete fool to dream of 100 or 150. It may have very little to do with the JPM position in it. That may well be barking up the wrong tree. The big bullion players may just be under specific instructions to keep Silver low at all costs. Whats the difference for them anyway. Since they are colluding in price they make money going up and going down. And no way that a short squeeze would ever bust JPM. They simply go to the discount window and load up on fresh cash. Besides they are in hundreds of huge commodity markets.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 6:38pm
Rico
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1901
6337

@Pailin, I didn't say

@Pailin,

I didn't say everything is going to be fine, going forward. I said that buying PMs like the bottom is getting ready to drop out of the world economy is dumb.

If, in your part of the world, people are spending their disposable income on art, I don't think they're having trouble putting food on the table.

Thanks for the Pivots!

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 7:06pm
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10895

SW

The industrial and military applications of silver have been repeatedly cited as the reason for silver's eventual advance. The price can be suppressed, raised, tied in a twist tie if they want. But the real issue is availability of the element. It takes a mine approx. 10 yrs before it begins to produce. Silver as you know is largely a byproduct of mining. Right now silver world reserves are low and silver's availability is approx. 10% of gold. Dump sites are filled with microscopic amounts in a sordid array of tech equipment.

I think price will climb as a consequence. But I agree with Jeff Neilsen on this, it will be confiscated by the gov`t when the right time comes. If not it will be heavily taxed rendering the ownership of it ultimately useless as an investment.

This research article provides some compelling numbers.

https://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/FBNSB0610.pdf

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 7:26pm
atlee
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1427
12263

Gift

you should look at these 4 commodity charts. Click on them to enlarge. This is the real deal.

https://itzstockchartz.blogspot.com/2012/03/itz-weekend-commodity-update-3-18-12.html#.T2Y01I9QDaI.twitter

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 7:47pm
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

@Rico

Well moderation in all things is recommended, including stacking :)

I wasn't trying to pull you out specifically, was addressing more of the tone of posts the last couple of days and probably weeks since the 37.50 selloff. My guess is that a lot of people got burned hard in the gold and silver kills and that's where the negativity is coming from. I didn't, thanks to the pivots lagging on the runup. So my attitude towards them isn't tarnished.

Here's a tip: the next time Ron Paul flashes silver at Bernank - SELL PMs :)

Understand what I'm saying here re: art - they're buying art from me. So it's not hearsay. And they're paying me new record prices. Over and over again. Throughout Q1 2012. I don't think anybody got better jobs or big raises in the last 12 wks. And I didn't magically get a lot better at my end either. So how are they suddenly paying me 2500-5000% (and more) annualized return? There's something else going on here, feels like everybody's doing the Charleston on the Titanic, and ignoring the rising water at their feet.

Having done this for a long time, I've learned that when you're doing so good you start thinking about upgrading from a Lexus to a Ferrari...well, that's when the floor underneath will just disappear. That warning is good for anything - gold, silver, real estate, AAPL, Dow 15k, SP 1550, and art. That's what I'm talking about. I think it's all credit cards at ZIRP, not savings that's overpaying for my stocklist and I fear the backlash. It has to be coming. Either that, or I'm going to be crowned art king in WSJ soon. Unlikely :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 7:51pm (Reply to #20216)
Strawboss
Offline
-
Washington DC, VA
Joined: Nov 13, 2011
902
2805

Rich people buy art as an

Rich people buy art as an inflation hedge. It's a niche market but for some...it works

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 8:11pm (Reply to #20216)
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10895

So Pailin are you saying

So Pailin are you saying metals are going down here too.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 8:12pm (Reply to #20216)
BlackHawk
Offline
-
Truman Lake, MO
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
1456
3888

Everything

everything in moderation, especially moderation.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 8:35pm (Reply to #20218)
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

redwood wrote: So Pailin are

redwood wrote:

So Pailin are you saying metals are going down here too.

Not particularly, but yeah sure like 2008? If we visit 22, I'm a buyer of size. Actually that's true beginning at 30.50 and going down. Otherwise I'm trading the pivots and my core remains heavily cash and hard assets.

I think what I am saying is that a normally illiquid market has become (from my POV) very liquid and at much higher prices very recently. I personally set two new high record sale prices last week. And both were multiples over previous. Normally I'd roll most of that back into more inventory, but instead this is feeling pretty weird so I knocked off some net 30 invoices early and am stocking the cash instead. Anyway the cash is coming in too fast to place back into inventory properly. So that's probably gonna be my go-forward until after the election or the bigger markets breakdown. The art thing is a signal that allowed me to dodge every stock market dump since dot-com bubble. People are getting stupid, not caring what the price tag is.

As I wrote initially, I'm negative everything right now, continuing business as usual but hunkering down too and leaving 'them' less to take easily (bank and trading accts).

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 8:53pm
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10895

Interesting Pailin, is that

Interesting Pailin, is that why you sell art, as a contrarian indicator. Clever if you do.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 9:21pm (Reply to #20221)
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

redwood wrote: Interesting

redwood wrote:

Interesting Pailin, is that why you sell art, as a contrarian indicator. Clever if you do.

Well some equities analysts do follow BID (Sotheby's symbol) action as a leading indicator of major market/economy shifts.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:19pm
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10895

http://seekingalpha.com/artic

https://seekingalpha.com/article/440851-silver-setting-up-for-a-potentia...

I`ve mentioned this author last week. He`s worth the read. Expects the bottom to be in between 1 to 3 weeks approx. for the metals. Is anybody here still following them. Or has everyone switched to oil predominantly.

As an aside everyone is expecting the 3 am takedown but I find it mildly curious that the metals are even slightly up now. The reasoning: its tied to the oil trade, hmm.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:31pm
Rico
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1901
6337

IMO, Avi Gilburt writes with

IMO, Avi Gilburt writes with a great deal of assurance, but is still of the "I'm just about sure it's going to do this, but there's also a chance it'll do the opposite" School of PM Prognostication...

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:36pm
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10895

Rico, how long have you been

Rico, how long have you been following him, just curious.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 11:46pm
atlee
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1427
12263

OPEC Recycles Dollars Into

OPEC Recycles Dollars Into Debt 50% Faster Than Foreigner

With the price of oil hovering around triple digits the profits have to go somewhere, you don’t hear about dollar diversification anymore. The only game in town is the dollar, and if you are sitting on dollars it only makes sense to buy Treasuries

Thanks to booming profits, the currency reserves of oil exporting nations have grown by $73 billion since January to more than $400 billion, creating more dollars to buy U.S. bonds, according to a Bank of America Corp. report last week.

United Arab Emirates central bank governor Sultan Nasser al-Suwaidi told reporters in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 29 that the nation was resuming investing in Treasuries, after saying in July it didn’t hold them because of “very low” returns. Saudi Arabia owned a record $350 billion in foreign securities as of June 30, central bank data show. HSBC Holdings Plc estimates a“large proportion” of those investments are in Treasuries

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/opec-recycles-dollars-into-deb...

Mon, Mar 19, 2012 - 12:14am
ghost
Offline
Joined: Jun 23, 2011
237
1104

atlee

Atlee, what are your thoughts on AAPL and the stock market in general? Do you see the market continue to run away until the all time highs before any major correction? Do you see the AAPL parabola just getting start or perhaps ending anytime soon?

Mon, Mar 19, 2012 - 7:57am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

Oil Price ETF ListETFs within

Oil Price ETF List ETFs within this category:

United States Oil Fund (USO) Top 100
FactorShares 2X Oil Bull/S&P 500 Bear ETF (FOL) NEW!
Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Total Return ETN (OIL)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (DTO)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN (OLO)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN (SZO)
PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO)
ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (UCO)
ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (SCO)
Teucrium WTI Crude Oil Fund (CRUD) NEW!
United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL)
United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO)
United States Heating Oil Fund (UHN)
United States Short Oil Fund (DNO)
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF (HOD-TSX)
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus ETF (HOU-TSX)
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Inverse ETF (HIO-TSX)
NYMEX Long Crude Oil/Short Natural Gas Spread ETF (HON-TSX)
NYMEX Long Natural Gas/Short Crude Oil Spread ETF (HNO-TSX)
Winter-Term NYMEX Crude Oil ETF (HUC-TSX)
ETFS Brent 1mth Sterling ETF (OLBP-LSE)
ETFS Brent 1yr ETF (OSB1-LSE)
ETFS Brent 2yr ETF (OSB2-LSE)
ETFS Brent 3yr ETF (OSB3-LSE)
ETFS Brent Oil ETF (OILB-LSE)
ETFS Crude Oil ETF (CRUD-LSE)
ETFS Forward Crude Oil ETC ETF (FCRU-LSE)
ETFS Forward Heating Oil ETF (HEAF-LSE)
ETFS Forward Petroleum ETF (FPET-LSE)
ETFS Heating Oil ETF (HEAT-LSE)
ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil ETF (LOIL-LSE)
ETFS Leveraged Heating Oil ETF (LHEA-LSE)
ETFS Leveraged Petroleum ETF (LPET-LSE)
ETFS Petroleum ETF (AIGO-LSE)
ETFS Short Crude Oil ETF (SOIL-LSE)
ETFS Short Heating Oil ETF (SHEA-LSE)
ETFS Short Petroleum ETF (SPET-LSE)
ETFS WTI 1yr ETF (OSW1-LSE)
ETFS WTI 2mth Sterling ETF (OLWP-LSE)
ETFS WTI 2yr ETF (OSW2-LSE)
ETFS WTI 3yr ETF (OSW3-LSE)
ETFS WTI Oil ETF (OILW-LSE)

from stockencyclopedia.com

add to it if you know of good etf's

Palin: Hope you don't mind me postingthis...since oil talk is heavy I thought it was timely. I'm looking myself so guessing others are too.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Mar 19, 2012 - 8:12am (Reply to #20228)
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

tonym9 wrote: Palin: Hope you

tonym9 wrote:

Palin: Hope you don't mind me postingthis...since oil talk is heavy I thought it was timely. I'm looking myself so guessing others are too.

If I can talk about art you can talk about oil :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
randomness