Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 2:43pm (Reply to #20188)
Spinny
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Is the reverse head and

Is the reverse head and shoulders on gold even worth looking at. If 1580 hold that formation would signal upside around $2000 by mid-summer? For all you experienced TA guys, what does it take for the H&S formation to become null and void? A close below $1570? Would appreciate any wisdom as I will probably go long around 1580-1600....

Same thing on silver. I know I already posted these charts once but nothing much has changes since the 15th.....

What is the biggest public fallacy about market behavior? That markets are supposed to make sense. ~ Richard Dennis
Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 4:15pm
SilverWealth
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Atlee and others

before I take my one hour swim in the rain today, thanks to Atlee and others for the takes.

I concur. The reverse H&S imo is often sited when price is moving against a technician who is very directional. Morris Hubbart is seeing more reverse H&S patterns on his charts than Unicorns in his dreams. He is a true commodity bug and prospector and uses large amounts of capital to fall back on as his plan B. He fails continually to warn his subscribers whenever GDX hits 57-58 which has been innumerable times before. Its a red flag area like entering Fukushima. You do not hold long miners at 57-58 GDX unless you enjoy being sodomized.

I don't care what anyone says about last week. On Tuesday Gold suddenly became a 'safe haven'? Say what? After it had traded in high correlation with ES as a risk on asset for months? That was a complete about face and any 'technician' who saw that one coming certainly did not anticipate it in print. You cannot trade that. Its a perception change regarded after the fact and people should not beat themselves up about it. OIL had traded in tandem with Gold and miners and Stocks up until that pt. Then Gold was shat out the back end and suddenly people are rotating into banks? Sorry, not foreseeable unless your Nemo after his conversion. And I vomit when techies like Norcinni, however well-intentioned they may be, rationalize the action after the fact. He seems like a good guy but he is entered in the London Olympics 100 meters dash this summer in his sagging munsingwears against Usain Bolt, good luck to him.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 4:41pm
atlee
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Silver

This is good succinct silver technical analysis. You might want to book mark this site and visit it it from time to time.

Highly recommend this

https://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/silver-weekly-technical-out...

SW:

I played the banks for the stress test. I said well in advance I was long JPM with April calls. I was also long C with April calls and even after they failed they still blasted off. I got out Thursday close because of OE Friday.

You can't fight these guys and win. So why try. You know they aren't going to let the Banks down. Look at BAC. If I wasn't thinking so much I would have bought calls on that too. Only wanted 2 so chose JPM and C. JPM had best chart C was second.

They are not letting the S&P fail either. They want you in equities. That sucker is going to 1550.

Everyone on this board talks about Obama re election. Well there are powerful people who run this game who would like to see him gone. So stop thinking things will not happen because they will hurt his re election chances. They may happen for just that reason.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 4:50pm (Reply to #20192)
Strongsidejedi
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@atlee re: pol's

Atlee,

You have great comments.
Congrats on taking that position on the banks. JPM and C (WF and BAC also) are clearly controlling market valuation through "creative" accounting.

The election is a toss up.

If the Democratic Party's power brokers are thinking that they can not hold the interest rates down, they may let the Romney go in just to screw the GOP for another four years of bad econ. Then, they would be able to ride into DC in 2016 as the "alternative".

My view is that the GOP is split between some who want to control power for immediate gain and others who are satisfied with not controlling the White House in order to continue to take over Congress. If Obama is in the WH and GOP controls Congress, they will nullify his power and then blame Obama for the lousy economy (virtually guaranteeing their victory in 2016).

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 9:26pm
SilverWealth
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my take

Manning looks like the Titans now.

I watched him leave the facility with Elway and there seemed to be too much distance, maybe its just the jock in both of them.

Titans have thrown the kitchen sink into their offer.

Congrats on the banks Atley. I pay very little attention to the news and did not even know about the stress tests in advance. But I'm pretty lazy and will have to summon even more energy to look at the bigger picture. All the people I read and all the stuff I follow and not a whisper about the banks beforehand, too bad for me I guess, but if I'm lucky the sun may come up tomorrow.

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 9:46pm
csquared13
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Buying opp...

for RIG and CVX?

https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/18/us-brazil-chevron-spill-idUSB...

just a thought..i don't hold positions in either.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 10:09pm
Pete
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Silver and Gold view 3/17

Technically these charts are very bearish IMO. Could take weeks to play out to the downside for an important low.

[IMG]https://i40.tinypic.com/eq3v5e.png[/IMG]

Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 11:45pm
redwood
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"I don't care what anyone

"I don't care what anyone says about last week. On Tuesday Gold suddenly became a 'safe haven'? Say what? After it had traded in high correlation with ES as a risk on asset for months? That was a complete about face and any 'technician' who saw that one coming certainly did not anticipate it in print."

Its precisely because of the above that I continue to question all the TA that is cited, even though I agree with the interpretation of the data. The general theme of all the articles thus far seem to heavily suggest a downward trend but no one is yet confirming it. The USD is vulnerable, both long-term and imminently.

Jim Willie in his March 9/12 report:

TEETERING PETRO-DOLLAR STANDARD

The Iran sanctions have undercut the USDollar more than any other single item. The Petro-Dollar is at risk. Many times in my articles, a warning has been scribed that the Dollar Kill Switch is ready on the wall, fully constructed, awaiting word to flip the switch. Someday in the not too distant future, the Saudis will announce acceptance of non-US$ payments. They have already made the supporting decisions toward this highly important step, related to Persian Gulf security enforcement. The numerous bilateral oil trade deals with Iran have become an epidemic that infects the USDollar in its unilateral dominance for trade settlement. One big reason Saddam Hussein was removed was his decision to accept Euro payments for crude oil. Another was to steal his gold, just like what happened in Libya. Another was to abrogate oil contracts made between Iraq and Russia as well as between Iraq and China. So as the many bilateral deals are struck with Iran, the USDollar foundation in trade settlement is crumbling, in parallel to the sovereign debt crumbling (see PIGS debt), in parallel to the USTreasury Bonds crumbling (see foreign creditor departures). The bunker busters might drop, but the real damage is to the stable catbird seat for the USDollar itself in trade settlement. Such trade is conducted less and less in US$ terms. Asia and the Middle East are leading the movement away from the USDollar.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:10am
SilverWealth
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Redwood

Jim Willie is great, I love the guy and he writes with great geo-political perspective and has an exceptional mind. But he is a futurist. In time what he says may most definitely play out but in the short and intermediate term I would never underestimate the power of the Matrix, of the U.S. Government, its military and of Mr Smith. Keep in mind how many times and for how long Neo and Morpheus tried to kill off Mr Smith.

"Someday in the not too distant future..." could be 5 years from now? 10 years from now? No one knows.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 8:30am (Reply to #20198)
Rico
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SilverWealth wrote: "Someday

SilverWealth wrote:

"Someday in the not too distant future..." could be 5 years from now? 10 years from now? No one knows.

Turd should put that on the masthead, SW! Underestimating the power of the people who run the Big Show is an extremely, um, unsophisticated point-of-view...

I just can't take this end-of-the-world nonsense, anymore--here, or anywhere else. That Jim Willie stuff is just more of the same ol' horseshit, and will NOT make anyone money. Long interest rates tick up this week, and it's the end of the dollar?? What kind of unadulterated crap is that??

Sorry about the rant, but the whole PM-shilling, doomsday "industry" needs to pipe down, and grow up--or they are going to find their business model in suspended animation for another 20 years, and who is that going to help?

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:13am (Reply to #20199)
atlee
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Rico

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:46am
daveyboy
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Completely concur and since

Completely concur and since the fallback position is manipulation, then since this supposedly continues unabated, then what value can we even put into the words and predictions of the so called bulls?. It comes across as very arrogant in fact and very off putting.

Brother John with his revelation that tens of millions of ounces had been sold and yet only causing a 1 dollar drop, was the final straw. Trade, trade, trade, it's all you can do, we will see absolute panic if the price not only falls but stays rooted to a certain lowly position for a while.

In fact, that panic or uncertainty is very obvious in the bullion vaults, when it's barely above spot price, such a contrast to mid last year/summer when no one wanted to sell and the silver being exchanged was new silver and now the existing holders are panicked.

You are right, barring the end of the world, this may play out for years and years and if the former happens, what solace will a grand spike in metals give? and if the latter happens, those who just hold and hold and buy and buy are going to get severely screwed.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 10:57am
redwood
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Clarification

Reference to Willie was just one example I was citing to argue against PM's plummeting. But I will concede that probability argues for a short term down turn, and since one can only trade in terms of probability, that is also where I stand. Surprises are part of the scenery.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:01pm
SilverWealth
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Rico

I guess my point is that however colorful the goldbugger writing, if one is unprepared to short the miners when they hit GDX 57 or hedge very professionally or sell most all gold and silver highs they can become fools gold in a very short while.

there is no telling how long it takes for the long term to play out. KWN has a strongly vested interest in rallying the troops at every high and at every low much like a colonel in a battle sending a 3rd or 4th wave straight up a hill into enemy fire. The Colonel ain' really going up the hill. Ever see 'Gallipoli'? Turk stays in the trench, is fully hedged and then sounds the trumpet while his boys go over the top, same with Sprott, same with Rhino Horn. They are all aging billionaires, what do they really care?

and Jim Willey is hunkered down in his beach chair in Costa Rica. Maund lives in an imperial compound in South America...

anybody wanting an unbiased common man to trade the metals should just track Jack Chan. Simple,direct,honest. They feature him when he is long on 321Gold but now they are not featuring him because he is short I imagine. For 30 dollars a month for those wanting to keep it simple its not a bad way to go I suppose.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:13pm
Vypuero
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Atlee you solved the hat tip problem

Created a new account for yourself

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:18pm
Pete
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Keith Fitzgerald's prediction

pulled this from one of his ads FWIW

he's looking for late spring, early summer, decline into the low (usual seasonal). may make sense since everything's "under control" these days...

can't say the last months' action contradicts him, really, but he was too low on the peak price. whatever.

[IMG]https://i41.tinypic.com/eu1xqc.png[/IMG]

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:27pm
SilverWealth
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Stewart Thompson

I forgot to mention S. Thompson in my last post. He should rename himself 'Hunter'.

His writing is always entertaining and because he tries to be funny, its sometimes very difficult to understand, very contorted.

He is actually talking about multiple revaluations of Gold upwards to possible levels of 12,000, 35,000 and 50,000. Now if you read this kind of nonsense and take it seriously than good luck. Stewart uses hyperbole to make his point about hoarding gold bullion above everything else but he has no idea, not a clue when if ever Gold will ever be revalued and be used to back any currency anywhere. Any implication otherwise is just leading you down a primrose path to everlasting hellfire imo.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 12:34pm (Reply to #20190)
Pete
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Spinny

The reverse head and shoulders in gold is there as potential only. It becomes one when the neckline is broken.

The left shoulder on your silver chart--where you chose the low of the body of the candle vs. the tail--is certainly not the traditional way of looking for the formation. Of course, a breakout above the swing highs could only be construed as bullish regardless of what you call the pattern.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 1:38pm
atlee
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GOLD OIL RATIO

Do a google search and brush up. At some point that will bring gold back into the spot light. You must first believe that higher oil prices are here to stay. Everything takes time so I would suggest not expecting miraculous revelations immediately.

I received the following tweet from World Energy Source:

Vypuero

I created Atlee II so I would have more memory to post charts. That memory is already full. I think the cops might get upset if everyone did that so I haven't been using it as I did not want to start a landslide rush.

Anyone who is listening;

I want to go on record as saying that I think Brother John is a Moron. He confirmed my thinking as the originator of the utterly stupid net dania volume sensation.

Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 1:49pm
TREACHEROUS CRETINS
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@ Atlee/ Rico