Got zero confidence in the market for the equity market this summer. I am thinking about the downtown train via a LEAP put option. Anyone already on the train? Ideas?
Let's talk shorting the SPY. Who getting on the down escalator?
I've been thinking about buying puts on SP futures but from looking at the options chain on SPY I like the OI numbers. I don't think I'd want to pay the premium for two years though, so if I buy them they'll have a much shorter expiration date (especially since I think the S&P will have taken a beating before the end of the year).
Then of course there's options on the VIX, or even VX futures themselves. So many... options! :)
Been watching the charts for a short entry position. If no bounce ~1250, may enter some shorts targeting a possible bounce around 1233. Break below that and will start entering short positions expecting at least an intermediate term trend change. But for the first time in months, seriously looking for a short entry point.
And I must say NOT long now.
I'm in the SDS and TWM ETFs. Should have bought puts on SPY but was scared I would be right on direction but not timing.
I recently read, though I can not remember where, that put buying on the S&P is at the same levels it was at when it bottomed at 666. Sentiment is in the floor and although I believe we will most likely head lower before this is done, I am currently buying some very cheap calls for the S&P at 1320. 1300 is the major resistance I think we will try and test and 1320 is where the 50 day MA currently sits, but calls at the level are significantly cheaper. We will see how this plays out but I think a rally in the short term is in the works.
Good article by Adam Hamilton on the correlation between the VIX/VXO and the S&P. http://www.zealllc.com/2011/tradfear.htm
It doesn't seem that fear is a major part of the current trading, so my thought is to get ahead of the curve here and let the hedgies and the rest of the mania work for me.
I don't do options, but am playing the leveraged ETF's. I have my price targets and if there's a brief rally in the S&P equating to more than a 20% movement down, then I'll reload.
Not sure where it is, but there's already a thread on this topic where I linked to this cyclical trader:http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/
So I'm betting this guy is right and my bottom price target is 800. We're not going to get there over night...and with Benocide talking on Wed...who knows what happens.
What'cha all make of this?
This is an interesting posibility:
I liked the reasoning enough to take out a small position in TLT (20 Yr Treasuries). It's a small position, so I can let it run a couple of weeks and see how it works in this environment. Ben has pretty much indicated that the interest rate will stay at zero, so I'm not worried about a rate hike.
Leveraged etf's are the devil. Stay away.
Maybe for investors, but for degenerate gambler traders like myself they're great =)
I am pretty new to trading but what I gather from what happened in 2008 is when the stock market crashed people cashed out and bought bonds, wouldnt that be a the reason for the TLT rally in '08? What are the chances this would happen again with our govt buying 80% of our bonds this time?
I was hoping for some help here 2x leveraged etf are new to me and i see that most of you either day trade or swing trade these i am looking to trade zsl jan 2012 put i usally trade slv and gld but with all the corruption in these i am thiking this may be a better way to go so my question is do any of you who trade zsl trade it longer term would love any help or advice anyone could give me thanks in advance
Another great clairvoyant post by Gary Savage, this time talking about intermediate cycles and how what's happening now should confirm a dollar rally and subsequent timmmmbrrrrrr to the stock market. Remember, the stock market needs a weak USD to rally and it's currently creeping up and up on the Euro weakness.
Hold your positions. Patience.
I think you want to short this market, but not right here, right now.
For the last 3 years the trade has been buy the dips, now it is sell the rallies, IMO.
That may sound trite, but I think it is the truth.
And for sure don't get caught long. I might buy SSO or SPY here and there, but I'll keep a very tight stop.
Buying treasuries is not a bad way to play it I suppose, but I'd prefer to wait for the crash and then short treasuries that will have rallied big time. I'd buy TBT to make it easy, but again, AFTER the crash, not now.
Just for the record, if you don't know what you're doing. Stay away from the leveraged etf's they will get you every time. Don't ask me how I know. There is no such thing as a sure thing and leverage makes you do stupid things.
Looking to short Spy heavily some time later this month-early August. Target is around 115.
Was looking to get short again @ around 135, but now it rallied so fast I'm thinking it may be better to wait for 137.
As far as a short term 2-3 day trade goes, I think shorting SPY right here would be +EV.
August-October is where i expect SPY to get crushed for around 15-20%
Curious where everyone is on their trade.
I held during the headfakes and reloaded SPXU at 14 and just sold some at 19 for a 35% net swing. I also have some at 17 which I'm holding till the DOW/gold ratio hits 3:1 or the S&P takes out 800.
From there, I plan to flip the proceeds into maybe a solid miner that has been beaten down or a bell-weather stock and ride QE∞ for awhile.
I tossed on a few SPY Sept 120 Puts a few days ago. I never thought they would be in the money today. The big question is do I let them sit or close the positions tomorrow. NFP will be a big factor of course but how much of the drop today was Europe dropping like flies and how much was the NFP numbers getting sent to the banksters today.
Well I did end up closing out those 120's on Friday with a little bit of profit. Then I bought a few SPY Sept 110 Puts and ended up selling those yesterday during the big swoon. They got so close to being in the money that it was kind of scary, but free FRNs is always nice. Right now I am riding a few way out of the money Sept SPY puts, so far out I don't even remember what they are, call them the "End of Western Civilization" hedge (along with some hastily added QQQ Sept puts in the same way out there fashion). After the whipsaw festival today they are in the red but my feeling is that one whiff of bad news from Europe (which is bound to happen) and the whole market is going to start selling off again. Sucks for poor silver, but at least gold is hanging in there nicely.