Seems like just more of the same of what I referred to in my post #116 just up the thread.
great panther may not be all that .... great
too bad endeavor is so high priced.
Yeah,Calandra must be loaded down with GPR shares.
Cooke is not taking Archer's low grades and high costs off his hands any time soon,is my guess.
Thanks for your opinion.
From the article. . . .
Mr. Cooke down the road at Endeavour’s Bolanitos states, “We’ve approached everyone in the district. Most likely we will find another deal before any action in Guanajuato. Not much interest from Bob.”
Cooke sees the grades and costs different I guess. He asked, Archer said no
I am a partner of investor outreach firm Torrey Hills Capital in Del Mar, near San Diego, California. Great Panther Silver, Revett Minerals and Golden Valley Mines are Torrey Hills clients.
Stockhouse members – the service is free – can see my entire portfolio online. It is under the portfolio function and my user name, which is TCALANDRA. Aside from Central Fund of Canada (TSX: T.CEF.A, Stock Forum), there is little to nothing in my portfolio suitable for risk-averse investors. I am not a financial adviser or planner. In this article, I am a shareholder of Endeavour Silver, Great Panther Silver, Revett Minerals and Golden Valley Mines.
After reading this article by the author, I was left with a luke warm feeling about GPL.... but today Casey research ,who I trust a great deal, is very favorable towatd GPL. So I'll vote thumbs up for GPL as one to own.
Just back from the New Orleans Hard Asset Investment Conference. Calandra and Archer were both there. I listened and talked to each of them for over 45 minutes. Calandra was saying that the deal would go down within the next 3 weeks and that the combined Endeavor and Panther would become his largest position. Archer stated that they aren't even in discussions. A deal like this takes months to put together, so for now, it just isn't going to happen and Calandra is wrong.
Does a deal make sense? Sure it does. Endeavor has excess ore that needs to be processed and Panther has a mill running at 50% capacity at Guanjuato, they are in the same area and could reap the benefits of economies of scale. BUT, this is Archer's baby and I don't think he'd sell out unless it was a deal that was just too good to pass up. Endeavor will utilize it's capital elsewhere, where it can be used more efficiently. Panther would just be too expensive for them to scoop up.
I talked to Mr. Archer about ALL the issues that have been brought up here over the last few months. I'd need a book to explain them all to you. Let me just say that after hearing the explanations directly from the horses mouth I'm as excited as ever about the prospects going forward for Great Panther. If anything, my excitement went from a short term stock blip up to real excitement for the long term. In other words, I had a paradigm shift from being a short term speculator to being a long term investor. This company is going to be around, and be very profitable, for a very long time to come in the future.
The deal that Calandra is pumping has been a speculative merger talked about for five years.
Calandra owns a boatload of shares and so he is what he is.
The San Ignacio ore will be milled at Guanajuato when it is geologically,economically feasible to do so.
GPR are in a bad situation now with no growth year over year and the worst grades they have ever mined at Gunajuato.
Topia is high grade,Guanajuato is a drain.
Spinning out Guanajuato makes little sense right now for GPR.
I would be interested if you would post a history of GPR profits up for potential investors,Icarus.
If you can not or will not ,I will.
I would be interested in hearing much more about your visit to the conference. Even more that is not related to Great Panther.
Third quarter was a wash, they withheld concentrate for 6 weeks, and then sold excess concentrate for 6 weeks. The 4th quarter results will be gangbuster (but again, because of the excess 4Q concentrate not sold in Q2). It's becoming totally unproductive to respond to anything you might say. This is not a contest. No matter what someone says, or evidence they produce, you are not going to open up your mind to new information. To have a civil discourse where two individuals are open to what the other has to say, yes I would love to participate. To argue with a closed mind is a waste of energy. Time will just have to be the final arbiter.
I'll put together something this evening about the conference over on the gold forum.
Sounds great. Thanks Icarus.
Q3/Q4 2011 is not the entire body of GPR work and hardly the historical record.
You provide no historical evidence or future projections but you stated in your previous post:
"This company is going to be around, and be very profitable, for a very long time to come in the future."
The reality is that it has taken GPR nearly seven years to realise ANY net profits. GPR has been successful raising capital from the public.
Anybody care for the actual facts enough to provide the GPR net capital raised vs. the GPR net profits?
Dec.09,2003-GPR to acquire Topia.
July 20,2005 -GPR to acquire Guanajuato.
Dec.13,2005-GPR commences production at Topia.
June 19,2006-GPR commences production at Guanajuato.
March 31,2008 -GPR announces $1.4 million 2007 'first mining profit' (before plant,equipment,properties and amortization payments).
May 11,2009-GPR announces first ever positive cash flow of $0.7 m (before interest,taxes,depletion and amortization).
March 18,2010-GPR announces first ever quarterly net profit of $1.0 m . Announces forecast of 2.6 million oz Ag Eq 2010 and 3.8 million oz Ag Eq 2012.
March 16,2011- GPR announce first annual net profit of $5 million. Announces forecast of 2.87 million oz Ag Eq 2011 and 3.8 million oz Ag Eq 2012.
Aug.11,2011-GPR announces Q2 income of $2.5 m-down 43%.
Oct.13,2011-GPR revise production forecast for 2011 down to 2.2 million oz (-25%) and provides no forward production estimates. No growth from the previous year with this revised forecast.
Great posts. keep it going. I'm still uncertain about GPL. I own some. Casey research likes it but also has had some of the same concerns that MGB describes....but feels their outlook is better now. Are you saying all GPl has going for it is the processing plant ?
As a theme, this might be a developing time for more Mergers and Aquisitions. Any decent ones will do. we've got Trade Winds ventures bought by Detour now. Whats next? Would this one with Endeavour be a good one?
I sense that poor ole AEM could use a new junior to replace their troubled mine.
I tink Eric listed some mines next door to AEM....sorry if this is getting off topic.
The best thing that Great Panther has going for it is not the mill, it is the continued resource as they continue to go deeper. Epithermal systems typically have vein like structures that expand and contract along strike. As you follow a rich vein you can expect it to vary as to the amount of mineral. Currently the ore grades are less than expected, but as they continue down into the Cata zone we can expect: Alto 2 zone intersections from UG11-135 that returned 29.44g/t gold and 6,447g/t silver over a width of 3.20 metres, and UG11-137 that returned 7.38g/t gold and 2,114g/t silver over a width of 5.40 metres. The Alto 1a zone in UG11-137 returned 1.82g/t gold and 485g/t silver over a width of 4.80 metres, while the Veta Madre zone in UG11-133 returned 6.02g/t gold and 1,347g/t silver over a width of 2.25 metres.
Just as an example: at 29.44 g/t gold and 6447 g/t silver yields $8,000 per ton at today's prices. And they have a 10 foot wide vein of that stuff. How much is it to mine that ton? $80. That's quite a big return. Unlike most silver mines, where most of the silver is at the surface, Guanujauto continues to show pockets of bonanza grade ore at depth.
I talked also with Bob Archer at the conference. One of the reasons for the increased costs at Topia is the fact that 10% of the ore they produce is purchased from locals. When they initially opened the mine, to foster goodwill from their neighbors, they agreed to purchase silver ore from the locals at 90% of the value of the silver. Currently they purchase 10% of their reported silver from the locals, but that expense has gone from $10 an ounce to $30 an ounce. They still make money on this transaction, however this makes the average cost of silver from mining look like it's going up when it isn't. He said they will try and break out this cost in the 3Q results. If not by then, then definitely by 4Q to make a more accurate representation to investors.
P.S. Read Tom Calandra's piece from the 26th. He thinks a buyout of Panther by Endeavor is in the works and will be announced within the next few weeks. I think that ain't gonna happen...but what do I know?
Underdog might take Guanajuato cake (GPR, EDR)
GUANAJUATO, Mexico – Two underdog teams shared space on the Mexico return flight to the USA today: Pan-American Games baseball champion Team Canada and silver producer Great Panther Silver.
Team Canada, managed by former Toronto Blue Jays catcher Ernie Witt, told me USA, Cuba and Mexico are always the lead contenders. His Canada team snatched victory from Team USA in a 2-1 nail-biter Tuesday evening in Mexico.
Great Panther Silver (AMEX: GPL and TSX: T.GPR, Stock Forum) is poised to snatch victory in Guanajuato, a historic Mexico silver district. But that victory, beneficial to shareholders in my view, might be tinged with melancholy.
Bob Archer’s Great Panther Silver was the first small Canadian prospector to the city and surrounding region of Guanajuato. Bradford Cooke’s Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK and TSX: T.EDR, Stock Forum) followed closely in 2007. (Photo: Great Panther’s Robert Archer at the entrance to Guanajuato Mine Complex this week – Thom Calandra photo)
Both have been among the Mexico silver producers’ fastest up-and-comers on their way to mid-tier status of five million or more ounces yearly. First Majestic (TSX: T.FR, Stock Forum) gets top honors in that category.
In Great Panther’s case, the bucks, or growth, slowed in this year’s second and third quarters. “In 2009, when you were first here,” Mr. Archer tells me in this week’s mine tour, “we had a lot of assumptions built into our targets. Factor in a 33 percent drop in grades (vs. Q3 2010 at Guanajuato) and that is quite a production drop.” In fact, slower than forecast mine development and a few exploration holes that were clunkers led to a 24 percent drop year to year in metal production at the picturesque hillside town’s labyrinth of rich silver and gold veins.
Adding to the melancholy: a back-up in concentrate shipments to a South Africa smelter this past summer smacked Mr. Archer’s company straight in the kisser.
The 600 tonne per day through-put at Great Panther’s Cata Plant is half what the mill at Guanajuato can handle.
For those, like me just returning from tours of both Endeavour Silver and Great Panther’s operations, and pressed for time as I head to the New Orleans Investment Conference, this is a first take at what could happen with Great Panther, a company whose shareholders and employees are ferociously loyal in their defense of Mr. Archer and his team.
The takeaway for me, a shareholder and almost three-year researcher of Great Panther and Endeavour Silver, is that Great Panther is ready for a merger:
Mr. Archer, seen recently having lunch with Brad Cooke at Joe Martin’s Silver Summit in Spokane, Washington, declines to state for the record if any transaction with a second silver producer makes sense for the company. I spoke with him Monday on site and underground … and on Tuesday after his appearance at a lunch with former Mexico President Vicente Fox. Great Panther and Endeavour Silver, in cooperation with Gordon Holmes’ wheelchair initiative, were donating about 200 chairs to Mexico families. (See photo: Vicente Fox, Robert Archer and Gordon Holmes, left to right)
“This is the company we built from what was a failed local cooperative. We are tied to the centuries of silver mining tradition here at Valenciana and throughout the district,” he says. ‘We have always felt responsible for contributing to the community.” The company has earned several marks of distinction in the area of community outreach in and around the town of Guanajuato, Leon and at its Topia camp in Durango State.
Another Great Panther team member, VP of Corporate Development Erick Bertsch, asks me, “You are a shareholder … would you take a 20 percent premium? 25 percent? (Thom: Well, no, but 35 percent? Maybe.) Yes, the silver sector is ready for consolidation. Many silver companies would improve their performance with synergies. In our case, GPR has little to no synergy with our Durango holdings (at Topia) and (those of) Endeavour (at Guanacevi). In Guanajuato, yes, there are well known synergies.”
Mr. Cooke down the road at Endeavour’s Bolanitos states, “We’ve approached everyone in the district. Most likely we will find another deal before any action in Guanajuato. Not much interest from Bob.” Endeavour Silver recently expanded its exploration strategy with silver properties in Chile.
Adds Endeavour’s Mr. Walton, who has been with Endeavour Silver since Day One at Guanajuato four years ago: “We’re hoping someone in the area just, well, throws in the towel. It takes two sides to talk.” (Photo: Mr. Walton and a mill manager at Endeavour’s upgraded plant at Bolanitos – Thom Calandra photo)
An ambitious and veteran operations chief at Endeavour, David Howe, has in place a rigorous efficiencies flowchart for his new waste rock contractor. Mr. Howe, a geologist engineer from England, says his team’s mine development, in cooperation with exploration targeting by VP of Exploration Barry Devlin, already has identified intensely high-grade veins, some already known and some newly unearthed.
One batch of core at Endeavour’s massive shed, just above the silver district’s historic Veta Madre vein, was laden with ceracite-speckled samples, indicating a high gold content. The facility has about $12 million worth of core samples, Brad Cooke estimates.
In one tray: five meters of recently assayed half-ounce gold and monstrously rich silver core from the Karina vein. Endeavour’s concentrate, shipped presently to its leach mill at Guanacevi, runs about 12 kilos of silver and 150 grams of gold per tonne, or $20,000 for each satellite-monitored truckload to Durango State.
The rub for Endeavour, in its eagerness to expand its milling options, is that the Guanacevi mill’s leach circuit “loses” a percentage of the silver. The company is planning a second tank to treat the silver-gold concentrates from Guanajuato.
The higher the silver price, says Endeavour spokesman and corporate relations manager Hugh Clarke, the larger the “lost” dollars per tonne of concentrate. A two-month planning regimen at Endeavour, based like GPR in Vancouver, Canada, will address how the expanding producer copes with its need for mill through-put in 2012.
If Endeavour keeps to form, its production of silver-equivalent ounces (companywide), which grew from 0 (zero) ounces in 2007 to 2.7 million ounces in 2010, will reach at least 4.5 million ounces for 2011. It could double that in 18 months.
Great Panther expects 2.20 silver-equivalent ounces in 2011 vs.2.25 million ounces in 2010 – basically flat and below Mr. Archer’s hopes of two years ago.
There is much that might be taking place behind the scenes, based on what I see here at both operations. If I am correct, Great Panther and Endeavour Silver some day, sooner than later, will join their operations in both Guanajuato and Durango states. The silver industry, at least in Mexico, will be the biggest winner. Followed, I pray, by this audience and my portfolio. In the meantime, I will be adding to my stake in Endeavour Silver and coddling my Great Panther shares with great care.
Not to be confused with a C+P pump job. This DD is now in hour 4:
2003 + 2004 -$5.37 million raised
2005-$17.725 million raised
2006- $17.02 million raised
2007-$5.75 million raised
2008-$10,649,500 million raised
2009-$15.405 million raised
2011-$24 million raised
That is $95.5 million raised from the public purse.
Options granted? 19 million shares
$1 million announced Mar.18,2010 for Q4 ,2009. $5 million net profits announced for all of 2010.
No net profits announced in 2011.
So,$6 million in profits in eight years of existence for GPR with $95.5 million raised and 19 million share options granted to GPR insiders.
"To have a civil discourse where two individuals are open to what the other has to say, yes I would love to participate. To argue with a closed mind is a waste of energy. Time will just have to be the final arbiter." Icarus
2007: $17.5 million
2008: $22.4 million
2009: $31.7 million
2010: $42.2 million
2011: Q1 -$15.5 million
Q2 -$8.8 million
Total: $155.8 million in revenues
$95.5 million raised from the public
Total: $249.3 million in revenue and public monies
Net profits:$6 million-2003 - Q2 2011
We have followed GPR for better than a year and Thom Calandra shows up at the frikkin top to spew sweet nothings again. The Boyo was nailed red handed by the SEC for scalping to the tune of a $ 540k fine and now runs SH like the obvious whoorehouse it has become.
GPR has done very well and is more than fully valued. Nuff said.