Gerald calls for a major crash in market between July and November. Is this beginning? I think the common theory is a 10-20% drop in equities before QE3 of some sort, but what if selling gets out of Fed's control?
I'm no expert on the matter like sum on here. However, I do feel that this market is due for a major correction in the near future. There's no doubt in my mind that when we do see these massive pullbacks(10-25%) in the markets, the Bernank will be right there to throw cash at the problem (QE3). QE3 will come in one way or another.
Well, that's always been the risk. (Fed losing control)
A downturn is unavoidable as the false-lift created by multiple iterations of QE is now 'ending'.
I'm in agreement with the thought that more printing/easing/monetization is also unavoidable simply to fund the US debt. Unknown at this point is what form QE3+ will take and what effects they'll have on the markets.
Despite rhetoric to the contrary, the Fed's control has become more tenuous over the past few years as it has become clear to all but the most dedicated kool-aid drinkers that they have but one tool in the tool bag and if that doesn't work....look out below. In our flash-crash prone environment, a lot can happen in the 15 minutes it takes the Bernank to go into action.
thanks for your insight! I think the best bet is to go long PM and other commodities after this sell off. maybe equities. could see a dow 15,000/gold 5,000 scenario in a couple years?
I feel this is all part of the great "Ponzi" that we call free market trading. There's always an agenda. What do you guys recommend shorting?
I am by no means an expert, but I am short right now the dow, but it can reverse awful quickly. I don't do ETFs or anything like that, just straight commodities. I am a long term bull on commodities, but short term hold or even short. Again though I am not an expert and there are alot more knowledgeable folks on this page!
"Gerald calls for a major crash in market between July and November."
Where did you get the "between July and November" date? The latest Trends Alert referenced the Summer 2007 Journal as mentioning July through November of that year ('07). To my knowledge TRI has not put a date on the next one. Have I missed something? Although no timeframe yet, they do certainly forecast all hell breaking loose again; they just don't know what/when the trigger will be.
"The moral of this story is to not let your mind take a summer vacation. Conditions are rapidly deteriorating and it is imperative to remain on high alert. Another violent financial episode is looming. It may be triggered by economics (e.g., debt defaults and debt crisis contagion in Europe, a crashing US dollar, or commodity price spikes); it could be terror (false flag or real), a man-made disaster (another Fukushima) or one made by Mother Nature … or any combination of the above." Trends Alert - COLLAPSE: IT'S COMING! Are You Ready? (June 14, 2011).
I misread that part of the article. Sorry! He doesn't give a time frame
There is not a call for a crash between July and November...that was the trends journal 07 report. Still it is coming (as everyone knows) my apologies!
"I misread that part of the article. Sorry! He doesn't give a time frame"...
Good. I would really really hate it if I had missed him saying that. Regardless though, there is a tremendous amount of urgency in his writings these days. The system is primed for a hit; all we are waiting for is the unknown event that does it.
And yes, it's coming and correct, he did not mention dates. Of course not, he is not a psychic, he writes a "trends" journal. Economic, political, social, cultural trends. At the end of the "alert" he wrote:
In the Summer 2011 Trends Journal (mid-July release) we will provide practical strategies to cope with the coming collapse and offer approaches that, if implemented, could reverse the prevailing negative trends.
I'm looking forward to this one.
yeah he has been angry in all the interviews I have seen with him lately. I think he expected more out of the American people, though deep down I am sure he knew what a bunch of sheeple most of us Americans are.
Yes, Celente's tone has definitely changed of late. Urgency and frustration for sure.
FWIW... The GEAB folks certainly target the second half of this year: "...all the conditions have now been met for the second half of 2011 to be the stage for the explosive fusion of two fundamental trends underlying the global systemic crisis, namely world geopolitical dislocation on the one hand and the global economic and financial crisis on the other"
I don't know how accurate these guys have been over the years (maybe someone here knows?), but here is the link in case anyone has not seen it:
Celente accurately predicted:
That's why I started subscribing. I don't even talk about this stuff to family or friends anymore. I just get a blank stare or they think I'm an alarmist.