Disappointment with the performance of miners. What gives?

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#1 Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 5:19pm
reefman
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Disappointment with the performance of miners. What gives?

Just wanted to express my frustration with my miners. 

I'm down about 23% for the year now. Not good. I have sold some a few weeks ago in order to have cash on hand to buy. 

GPR.TO

RVS.V

SLW.TO

SSO.TO

TK.V

WS.V

AXU - USA

CEF - USA

I suppose the good thing is that my pessimism means it might be an indicator to "get in" again - but then again, what happens July 1st? 

Anyway, just wanted to get my feelings out there.

Edited by: reefman on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:20am
Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 5:29pm
ned braden
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Well I sold

some First Majestic and SLW today; so they're going to be heading up from here......

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 5:33pm (Reply to #2)
hpx
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A lot of SLW

I've got a large part of my portfolio in SLW, and I'm down 25% (my timing is marvellous). Doesn't matter that much though, I'm saving up to put more money down up ahead, because it is an insurance against economic disasters more than an investment.

I'm hoping to buy First Majestic if we get additional weakness soon.

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 5:48pm (Reply to #3)
the51Project
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Advice I got from David Morgan

my brother's Father in Law bought into SLW (on my advice) and is down a fair bit, although not a fortune in fiat. Should have sold at $47 and re-bought, but retrospect is a wonderful thing. I posed the question to David Morgan of Silver Inverstor.com, and his reply to me was SLW was still a strong hold, and had not yet reached their price point - how right he is.

I just watched this live tonight - https://www.zerohedge.com/article/watch-bernankes-speech-committee-respo...

Senators, Congressmen, and Captains of US Industry not so much directing the ship, as deciding how it would eventually sink. David Morgan and Turd and Jim Rogers and Steve Forbes, and Schiff, and all the others are correct... it has not yet reached its price point. Unfortunately when it does, although great profits will come, those will become very dark days indeed. Let's not lose track of the calamity ahead. STRONG HOLD

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 5:53pm (Reply to #4)
boil_in_the_bag_rice
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I'm all in with a junior

I'm all in with a junior miner PVG.TO (Pretium Resources) on the back of a share tip from a leading Gold/Silver expert.

My average price is $10.45 and it's currently trading down about 10% at $9.60 (14th June 2011), depsite only good news coming out of the company. It doesn't bother me at all because I know these guys have huge resources and a superb management team.

If/when the ETFs are exposed as scams, the investment dollars will hopefully come running back to the miners.

Keep the faith!

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 6:05pm
Mike
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We buy more when it goes

We buy more when it goes down.

A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 6:44pm
Jasper Puddlemaker
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re: "Frustration with

re: "Frustration with miners"

We face seasonal issues; June, July, and August are traditionally weak. At the moment AU and AG stocks are out of favor. Add to that the uncertainty around QE issues.

Sinclair is absolutely correct about the producers needing to pay substantive dividends. Dividends are what is needed to ignite this sector. It will take someone who actually cares about shareholders (a Sinclair, or a McEwan for example) to get those dividends going. Many companies are making good money at these prices, but when management is collecting big salaries meaningful share price appreciation is secondary. Leadership will not come from the majors; it has to come from the juniors.

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 6:55pm
geminiRX
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Remember folks, it's not a

Remember folks, it's not a loss till you sell. Hold on to them and sell another day. I would like to buy more miners but if there is another Lehman event with Greece - I would rather buy then. Most senior miners still pay a small dividend to hold em - so what's the hurry to sell?

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 6:56pm
anarchitect
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Underperformance of mining stocks

By historical standards, precious metal mining stocks should be quite a bit higher given current bullion prices. There are several explanations for their underperformance.

A while back, it was certainly the case that increased costs (energy, labor, materials) were eating into profit margins. This isn’t nearly as much of a factor with $1500+ gold and $30+ silver.

Another explanation is that bullion and related ETFs and closed-end funds (GLD, SLV, CEF, GTU, PHYS, PSLV, SGOL, SIVR, and others) have attracted investment flows away from the miners. This continues to be true.

Yet another explanation is that hedge funds have been putting on spreads, going long bullion and short the mining stocks. This is also true, but they’re eventually going to get their heads handed to them if they don’t switch to a more sensible spread, like short the general market and long the miners.

Other explanations, which are impossible to assess, are that the shares are shorted by bullion banks in advance of takedowns, or even by the official sector, as part of an effort to keep bullion prices from rising too fast and to minimize interest in the sector. None of this would surprise me given the desperation to prolong the fiat currency Ponzi. These people will also get their heads handed to them, perhaps in the style of Marie Antoinette.

Patience and accumulation of the mining stocks on weakness should be rewarded. There are ETFs like GDX and GDXJ if you don’t have any favorites. Any single stock can run into political, operational, or environmental problems, so it’s best to own at least a handful. The exception might be royalty/stream plays like RGLD, SLW, and FNV. But I cringe when someone talks about going "all in" on a single stock. And you should have at least as much in bullion as in mining stocks. For that, I'd recommend 1-ounce non-numismatic coins and the closed-end funds CEF, GTU, PHYS, and PSLV.

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 6:57pm
dolphindude
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I lucked out to sell SLW.TO at the recent top

And used the cash to buy Endeavour Silver. 

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 9:13pm (Reply to #9)
geminiRX
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I am buying Kinross below 15

I am buying Kinross below 15 for quite some time. This stock is way too cheap for the 3rd largest senior producer. With the acquisition of Redback, there is a large upside. I also like north American palladium ,PAL. Stock is pretty bruised but has good bounce back potential ( own none yet - but will buy on the next major red day).

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 10:48pm
Eric Original
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Not selling now...

Yeah, pretty PO'd at my miners too, and plan to scale out of them gradually. Not dumping in a panic right now though. I track the GDXJ as a benchmark or index and it's sitting on pretty good support right now at 34ish. If I didn't have miners right now, I'd be thinking about buying some, not selling.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 11:02pm
ginger
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I am absolutely holding on...

I have a basket of about 15 gold & silver miners and am not going to be shaken out. I believe in the fundamentals of the companies I have chosen and without a very good reason to let them go..I won't! ....I hope to be adding to my basket of miners in the coming weeks. I am down like everyone else on the account balances but I do strongly believe that is only temporary!

Eric Original, I would just like to state for the record that you got your VERY FIRST hat tip from ...Moi. ...It's the least I could do for my fav goldbug. :D

;)

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 11:07pm
Eric Original
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Hat Tip right back atcha

Hat Tip right back atcha Ginger! Been waiting for you to show up tonight. Pretty exciting stuff, eh?

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 11:16pm
yankee1steve
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PZG

PZG seems to be going up when other miner stocks are down. Anybody know what is going on? I know they have been drilling but no news from that yet. What cause the move in this stock when others are down? Anybody had any news on this. Also, did u all see GPL is breaking past $3/sh today. Good earning report. Seems like EKX is like a yo-yo trading between high $7+/sh to $10/sh. Seems to be this range. Also, ABX is being hold down by its M&A of Equinox. I hope after the M&A is settled that ABX start to move up. GLTA

Tue, Jun 14, 2011 - 11:19pm (Reply to #14)
ginger
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Ooops!

WONDERFUL SITE, Eric! ..I really love it all. The avatars are so (SO!) much easier to see ..love all the clarity and easy nav.. ..just awesome.

(so many places to go and read now.. ...I feel kinda lost .......but in a good way!)

I have to retract what I said about your first hat tip though! .....I was looking at your lil yellow hat and it still showed 0 hat tips.. ..but your avatar says 'hat tips 12'. ....I guess the little hat thingy takes longer to update. ..So, anyway.. ....I WOULDA given you your first hat tip if I'd been here earlier. lol. ;)

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 4:32am (Reply to #15)
pbfurn
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PZG

Last week several people were inquiring about a miner (can't remember which one!) that was moving up sharply on zero news. Turns out I was able to tell them it was moving because it was a new recommendation from a newsletter to which I subscribe. After about three days, it returned to its normal activity/range. So, that is always a possibility, as is that a mutual fund established a position or increased an existing one. Sometimes it is innocuous stuff like that that moves these stocks because the float is not all that large for most of them so it does not take much buying/selling to move them.

As well, sometimes when these juniors swoon it can be because someone is taking profits on a large position to pay a tuition bill or for a daughter's wedding. I am by no means an expert in these matters, just that I have been dabbling in them long enough to have seen some of these "no news" moves that turn out to be no cause for dismay or euphoria.

FWIW, you now have my esteemed wisdom.......be afraid.....be very afraid!

Good luck!

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 8:38am
jmmergott
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First Majestic

A couple of you mentioned FR.TO, I just wanted to point out a few things, (I hold that stock, I never trade it and this is why) I have had a decent relationship with those guys for a few years now, and every time they tell me something they come through on it. The only thing they ever were wrong about was when I asked them why don't they file to be on the AMEX. They said they would by year end. Then they went straight for NYSE much to my pleasure/surprise. 2011 production is expected at over 8 million ozs. 2012 is expected at 10. this is vs 2010 7.5 million ozs. The point is, silver doesnt need to do anything, as long as it stays in this region these guys are making shit loads of money. The board and CEO have discussed numerous times there desire to pay a dividend come the beginning of 2012. The chart looks good and is holding above 15. I would put money in this one before 90% of the others.

*Disclosure: I IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM WORK FOR THIS COMPANY OR ANY OTHER JUST TO BE CLEAR!!! I'm just a VERY happy shareholder!

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 8:42am (Reply to #15)
jmmergott
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GPL

Great Panther's earnings were in yesterday, prob why it was up about 12% in 2 days. I kept trying tlo tell my friends, "just wait it's inevitable at these prices, these guys will make major bucks" Now with the technicals turning upwards again, a nice hold at the 200 day MA and proven earnings capability I think GPL is ready to start doing something again soon.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 12:18pm
zman
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gdxj call options

What does anyone think about buying gdxj call options? There are Jan. 2013 available, it really seems like the best way for a leveraged play, with lots of time.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 1:24pm
Eric Original
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zman You'd have plenty of

zman

You'd have plenty of rocket fuel under you that way! I like it.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
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