Just want to hear out plausible explanation from Turdites as to why there has been a sustained reduction in premium to NAV of "historical" 4-8% to the recent 0 minus 2% discount price to NAV
I was at my local coin shop last week and the owner told me that retail sales have practically vanished as to buyers of silver and gold. He called his buyer of silver and was told the same thing. It is possible the premium has disappeared as the psychology of the retail public has switched from bull to bear.........as the demand has dried up the premiums have come out of the market price. This is just an indication that the bubble has vanished and the technical damage to price and market psychology must be rebuilt. In time, as the retail trade returns and silver resumes its uptrend, I would assume that the premium to NAV for CEF will return.
I think it was Harvey Organ who wrote that CEF is taking a disproportionate amount of heat from the EE because it made a new share offering earlier this year (and thus, took more bullion off the market).
Of course, there is no proof of this, but I would not be surprised if that was the case.
hawkeye wrote: In time, as the retail trade returns and silver resumes its uptrend, I would assume that the premium to NAV for CEF will return.
In time, as the retail trade returns and silver resumes its uptrend, I would assume that the premium to NAV for CEF will return.
If you like 24 hours data on $ to Nav ( vs the CEF web site that gives you a once a day #) -- try this - a Google spreadsheet someone did ( I found link on kitco mb ) ... still not sure how they did it - neat ...
Harvey had a great chart on $ to NAV a while back -- all things will come to pass .... and normal will return
First Post, watching since ZH was a blog, followed Turd here because he has skills and apparent integrity:
CEF premium started down after it announced new share creation (hate when they do that). This I believe is typical of closed end funds. There is a logic to switching into a comparable vehicle on the news of pending share creation and switching back in after the slump. But nothing else is/was like cef - heavy Ag exposure and reasonable premium so I take the ride. The premium has fallen for pslv too as Ag weakness gets expressed twice - first in the nav and again in the prem/disc. I still figure in an Ag melt-up the premium could get extremely positive. I still have miners but worry that in an extreme shtf situation that metal in inventory beats metal that will get dug up someday. I try not to trade -too emotionally draining. The long term is easier to see than whether the summer is dull or exciting.
The following comes from Harvey Organ's website.
(courtesy Ed Wener)
And once I understood that I stopped buying funds at a more than +2% premium.
I can buy BMG Bullion funds for 0 premium, or wait for the others to be negative.
WTF CEF closed today -0.5%
Noticed that too. No additional shares added, and trading at a very modest premium of 1.2% in USD.
Haven't been keeping track but was the premium higher coming in to today? Looking at the daily chart it started at 24.90 and dropped all day, finishing near the day's low.
today another crazy down day for this puppy
I'm holding for now, I hope revenge will be sweet in the end..
5 day P&L:
CEF -2.35 % (50/50 gold/silver)
GLD +7.16 %
Just taking my first look at CEF. It appears that the discount has held. -1.33% at the moment. Is the general thought that the EE is maintaining pressure on the fund, even after several months? Thanks as always for the great info sharing!
Compare 100% Silver (SBT.UN) and 100% Gold (GTU) --the sister companies of CEF - Central Fund -- WTF ... so I bought more CEF today ... time wil tell ....
this spreadsheet link is here >>>> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?authkey=CPmaiOsH&key=0AsAy8x4Mq0...
for live links ....thanks to whomever did this ... OMG
It looked like some people came to their senses yesterday as CEF group of co's actually rallied while others posted losses. Although down today, these same co's are down less than other phys Au/Ag funds (in addition to the GLD and SLV)
Through the turmoil of the last few days, CEF.A has been basically flat, making the premium go from -1% to 4%. Is this just the premium finally getting back to normal, or is there some divergence between the paper and physical going on?
CEF has been a head scratcher for me, too. I made the decision many months ago to invest in CEF as opposed to any Sprott funds for three reasons: 1) CEF was trading at below NAV while Sprott was and continues to trade well above NAV 2) CEF has more bullion than Sprott and I appreciate how CEF gives equal exposure to gold and silver 3) Sprott's convertability feature to me amounts to a marketing gimmick; mentally comforting but unrealistic for most to ever exercise.
Eric Sprott is very vocal in the goldbug community and I think that his funds benefit heavily from his name recognition and brand of guerilla style marketing.
Harvey Organ has also been taking about the banks "raiding" CEF these last few weeks while leaving Sprott alone. I don't understand what he means by this...would anyone care to explain? Are there any other reasons why Sprott seems to be more stable than CEF these last few weeks?