COMEX Silver ALERT! Lowest Ever! 98,690,833 oz.

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Jake
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COMEX Silver ALERT! Lowest Ever! 98,690,833 oz.

Includes a Withdrawal Today of 1.4 Million from Brinks

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 05:09

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Seacap81
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Good post, thanks for the

Good post, thanks for the heads up.  Harvey Organ is a good read tonight.

Wizdum
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insanity

if it get too hairy they are prolly gunna force 'liquidate' (lol) the SLV or GLD...HAHAHAHAaa

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Yes, and 70 million of those

Yes, and 70 million of those ounces are encumbered already.  The registered silver supply is 27.7 million.  5000 contracts would bust the freakin thing wide open.  We still have 34,000ish standing who haven't rolled out of the month. Just a week to go for the bankers to shake those contracts from the tree.  Will they beat the clock?  This should be good!

Captain Benny
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is it just me?

Is it just me or are we still seeing backwardation in silver futures?  Yea, thats right!  That supposed short term backwardation caused by "hedging" is actually still lingering meaning the market is pricing in serious delivery risks or some massive, no -- astronomical, long term hedging is still ongoing.

The miners that wanted to hedge did so many months ago.  I am confident that this year will see a move to the upside that will put the gains of the first quarter 2011 to shame.

Jake
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Rate of Depletion Going Critical!

I've been keeping track of the COMEX inventory for years. Instead of throwing a bunch of data into a chart, I decided to look at the depletion rate in very simple terms so I can report this in just a few lines.

One year ago, COMEX inventories were at 117,246,000 oz. as of 6/24/2010. Today they're at 97,859,632 oz. If we want to see what the depletion rate for that set of data is, we simply divide the inventory loss by 365 to get a daily loss of  53,113 oz. This bcomes the daily average depletion rate (including weekends and holidays). Projecting how long it might take to deplete the entire inventory then becomes a simple division exercise where we divide the current inventory by the average depletion rate: 97859632/53113=1842 days=about 5 years.

Using the above data, you might conclude the comex will not default for another 5 years. However looking at more recent data reveals a different story.

If I use this same exercise on the last 50 days as my time frame, the loss becomes 94,345 oz./day resulting in a depletion projection of only 2.84 years

It gets worse and worse as the depletion rate is going exponential and will soon go hyperbolic.

Using the last 25 days of data, we see a depletion average of 154,102 per day resulting in a total comex depletion projection of 1.73 years.

It gets better--In the last 5 days, the comex has lost 403,468 oz resulting in a condition of "COMEX ZERO" in just 242 days. This Means that the "COMEX WILL BE COMATOSE" by February 21st 2012.

I just thought you all might get a kick out of that!

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tmosley
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Might examine it from the the

Might examine it from the the deliverable silver, rather than the total inventory.  That is where most of the silver has been disappearing from.

Jake
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tmosley wrote: Might examine

tmosley wrote:

Might examine it from the the deliverable silver, rather than the total inventory.  That is where most of the silver has been disappearing from.

I've always felt that they could "find" silver to fill this section of the inventory from other sources by bribing and/or arm-twisting physical owners through purchase + hefty premiums. Although sources could come from the Comex Eligible or by forcing delivery from SLV categories, I've come to the conclusion that all we really need is a "trigger" to drive panic into this market that forces them to shut down all operations. However, let's do the exercise anyway:

One year ago, COMEX REGISTERED inventories were at 61,996,400 oz. as of 6/23/2010. Today they're at 27,517,070 oz. If we want to see what the depletion rate for that set of data is, we simply divide the inventory loss by 365 to get a daily loss of  94,464 oz. This becomes the daily average depletion rate (including weekends and holidays). Projecting how long it might take to deplete the entire inventory then becomes a simple division exercise where we divide the current inventory by the average depletion rate: 27517070/94464=291 days=0.79 years.

Using the above data, you might conclude the comex will not default for another 291 days. However looking at more recent data, the depletion rate gets worse.

If I use this same exercise on the last 100 days as my time frame, the loss becomes 135,912 oz./day resulting in a depletion projection of only 202 days.

It gets worse and worse as the depletion rate is going exponential and will soon go hyperbolic.

Using the last 25 days of data, we see a depletion average of 143,424 per day resulting in a total comex depletion projection of 191 days.

This Means that the "COMEX REGISTERED WILL BE COMATOSE" by December 31st 2011. Using the data from both "Total and Registered Categories", we might conclude that the comex could default anywhere between Dec 31st 2011 and Feb 21st 2012---Take your pick.

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Jake
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Jake wrote: Includes a

Here's What Happened Today!

The 1.4 Million oz. went to HSBC

365,240 oz. withdrawn from Scottia

865,722 Adjustment From Brinks

It's Comical Really! It's Like "LEGGO My EGGO"

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tmosley
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Damn, how's it feel to be

Damn, how's it feel to be right all the time?

Feels good, man.

Gonna be REAL interested to see what happens tomorrow (as in, the report on what happened today).

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Updated Info

 

Registered silver as of 6-27-11   28.4 m. oz.

Open interest July silver as of 6-26-11   26,496 (x5000oz=  132.48 m. oz.)

First day notice for July Silver..... Thursday..... as in three days.

A flurry of activity in the comex inventory actually caused the first increase in several weeks. Be watchful of all kinds of shenanigans not only over the next three days, but all through July..... the comex dealers have until July 31st to deliver all standing contracts.

tmosley
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Note that the 31st falls on a

Note that the 31st falls on a weekend this year.  They have until the 29th...

Warren Peace
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Noted

Noted, Thank you,

If paper price trades higher now that all options are expired, and an unusually large number of contracts stand, and hold out. And of course if a large percentage of those take physical delivery. Then, this may be the best opportunity to buy...... So many unknowns, It feels like the status quo is changing though, doesn't it?? Almost like the rain is starting to fall, and that crazy Noah guy doesn't seem so crazy anymore.....

Jake
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Warren Peace wrote: Noted,

Warren Peace wrote:

Noted, Thank you,

If paper price trades higher now that all options are expired, and an unusually large number of contracts stand, and hold out. And of course if a large percentage of those take physical delivery. Then, this may be the best opportunity to buy...... So many unknowns, It feels like the status quo is changing though, doesn't it?? Almost like the rain is starting to fall, and that crazy Noah guy doesn't seem so crazy anymore.....

COMEX SHE'S GONE!

Little did you know that Hall and Oates Knew This Was Going to Happen back in 1976

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Jake
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Here's What Happened Today

Here's What Happened Today 6/28 report--6/27 Activity!

Who's Going to be the Last Man Standing in the Silver Musical Chair Game?

127,996 oz. Adjustment out of Registered at HSBC

219,759 oz. withdrawn from Brink's Including 158,968 from Registered and 60,791 from Eligible

283,715 Received Into Brinks

15,104 received into Scottia

Total Registered Loss Another 158,968

Bringing the Registered Total to 28,090,727

Total Eligible gain 238,028

Grand Total...A Gain! of 79,060

New Grand Total: 99,006,652

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls

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Jake
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Jake wrote: Here's What

Jake wrote:

Here's What Happened Today 6/28 report--6/27 Activity!

Who's Going to be the Last Man Standing in the Silver Musical Chair Game?

127,996 oz. Adjustment out of Registered at HSBC

219,759 oz. withdrawn from Brink's Including 158,968 from Registered and 60,791 from Eligible

283,715 Received Into Brinks

15,104 received into Scottia

Total Registered Loss Another 158,968

Bringing the Registered Total to 28,090,727

Total Eligible gain 238,028

Grand Total...A Gain! of 79,060

New Grand Total: 99,006,652

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls

SLV UPDATE: Lost Another 682,382 oz.

Total Now at 308,657,433 oz.

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Warren Peace
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Updated Info

 

Registered silver as of 6-28-2011                  28 M oz.

Total Silver as of 6-28-2011                           99 M oz.

Total July open interest as of 2-27-2011     19,600 ( 98 M oz.)

Remaining days until first notice                  2

Remaining days for July delivery                 31

Unbacked SLV shares sold short                   37 M shares (oz)

It seems apparent that the comex has been liberally using shares of SLV to satisfy delivery of comex contracts. The problem is that there isn't enough physical to go around, so they just create, and short new shares of SLV without real silver backing. Isn't this against the SLV prospectus.... um, yes, but who cares? Not owners of SLV apparently. And the comex receipt holders are none the wiser because they almost never take physical possession of the silver they supposedly own. This is turning into one BIG mf'n train wreck coming soon to a market near you. If you own these things, you are f'in crazy.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com

Good luck, and Godspeed

Desert Fox
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Good Reporting, Great Tunes

Considering it's supposed to be the slow time of the year, there sure is alot of information out there suggesting fireworks are coming. Getting {even more} interesting!

Good stuff and love the tunes.cool

Jake
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Desert Fox wrote: Considering

Desert Fox wrote:

Considering it's supposed to be the slow time of the year, there sure is alot of information out there suggesting fireworks are coming. Getting {even more} interesting!

Good stuff and love the tunes.cool

It's Time For a Little Police Squad!

I think I've Found The Man Who Manages the Comex Silver Stocks.

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Desert Fox
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Excellent!

It's a good day!

Found Jake and Silver's jumpin.

All good!

tmosley
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Warren Peace

Warren Peace wrote:

 

Registered silver as of 6-28-2011                  28 M oz.

Total Silver as of 6-28-2011                           99 M oz.

Total July open interest as of 2-27-2011     19,600 ( 98 M oz.)

Remaining days until first notice                  2

Remaining days for July delivery                 31

Unbacked SLV shares sold short                   37 M shares (oz)

It seems apparent that the comex has been liberally using shares of SLV to satisfy delivery of comex contracts. The problem is that there isn't enough physical to go around, so they just create, and short new shares of SLV without real silver backing. Isn't this against the SLV prospectus.... um, yes, but who cares? Not owners of SLV apparently. And the comex receipt holders are none the wiser because they almost never take physical possession of the silver they supposedly own. This is turning into one BIG mf'n train wreck coming soon to a market near you. If you own these things, you are f'in crazy.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com

Good luck, and Godspeed

Good post, but you should note that there are only 21 days for delivery to take place, as they don't deliver on weekends.  This means all deliveries must be made by July 29th.

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