Belmont 2018

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Ruffian
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Belmont 2018

This is it. If justify gets beat it's gonna be here. He really regressed last race. He had three on his tail in the slop. A few more feet they would have ran over him. 

We have no idea how any of these guys will handle 12 panels. It's the first and last time they will run it. 

So who training good. Hofburg is out of the spotlight. He's working on a difficult track that's not groomed for racing yet. Ignore the times. 

Gronkowsi is taking to Belmont like a fish does to water. He's floating over the surface. Pats fans may bet him down but he's getting little respect from Europe or anywhere else. 

Tenfold had a jerky workout but the first time he's worked without draw reins. Otherwise he was fine. 

Justfy threw his rider on Saturday - not a good sign. 

Blended citizen is moving well too ... 

Free drop billy I don't like but he has the pedigree. He hasn't shown any reason all season to be in here 

vino Russo I doubt gets the distance 

bravazo ....  He's a mudder on top and bottom. He ran huge last week. It may have taken too much out of him. 

Have to see who else confirms ... Field isn't set yet. 

Pure Speed doesn't win this race ... Steady cruising speed does 

Ruffian
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The draw

Justify drew the rail. I don't think it will hurt him cuz he won't want the lead unless he has to. He'd rather sit and stalk then press or lead. 

I imagine vino Russo or noble Indy will go for it. 

Coach has said he doesn't see a chink in justfys armour. Oh really, they why ya got bravazos in there. Coach is dangerous when talking up other horses. A pletcher win would tie him with coach. 

This is a true test of champions. I'm not sure which pletcher will sacrifice yet. Vino or Indy.... I have to think about it. 

But im going for the big bucks and leaving the 4/5 fav off my tickets. If I'm wrong I'll get clobbered but if I'm not...... Yahoooo 

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Oops forgot

Restoring hope is entered too. Darn if I can figure out the sense of that one. 

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Lost another post

The crux was pletcher is sending noble Indy to front. Not vino Russo. So you might wanna include him in your verticles. Even to win

Smith will get 4/5 fav justify off the rail ASAP cuz big sandy is deep on the rail. So you gotta run him down. Cuz he will be 2 or 3wide outsid. So it's go wider or go inland deep. They have 3/16th of a mile to find position before the first big turn. How much ya wanna burn getting there? 

Hofburg ran a hell of a race in the derby. Tenfold has no turn of foot so he has to find a way up close somehow. Gronkowsi has a lot against him but he's at 12-1 damn pats fans. I love how he floats over the track. It's so hard to judge a euro horse on dirt and this is his first time on dirt. From personal experience I can tell you the kickback stings. It very well could take him off his game. 

Restoring hope is trained by the silver fox too and I'm sure the only reason he's in here is cuz his clients the wests who give him top horses insisted he be. Does bravazo have anything left? Coach never backs down. Only him and justify have been in all three. Plus he ran a much better trip in the derby than you think and he just missed last out. He's bred top and bottom for mud. Some rain expected but not enough to do anything but improve the turf course. Then again 300k is a nice payday for losing. 

Saturday I turn into a complete punter. If justify doesn't hit the board the payouts will be massive..., that's worth risking a few sheckles to me. 

When a triple is on the line this becomes the best race in the world. 

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Second thoughts .

After thinking about pace scenario I realized this race is much more difficult than I thought. That's because of all the cross ownership and cross trainers. It's hard to say who will help who. 

Hofburg has a blah first gallop over Belmont. Today he had a rider change and looked like himself. He was full of energy again and moving nicely. 

Gronkowski has every excuse to run poorly in the book. But his works are fantastic. Oh gee is he huge. He traversed 1.5 miles today on an easy gallop with his ears pricked forward the entire time. My heads telling me no but my gut is telling me he's a true stayer. Worst case he will have to be reckoned with down the line. 

I play partial wheels and boxes. I'm dumping justify completely from the top of my ticket. One will look like this tenfold on top of/ hofburg, gronkowsi, vino Russo boxed. Meaning tenfold has to win and the other three can come in any order as long as they are 2,3,4 crossing the finish line. 

I'm also playing a $20 win ticket on free drop billy cuz of a trainer I know and respect told me to. Plus he will be 60-1. I don't normally play horizontals or win, place, shows. 

I'm trying to beat justify here 

pace scenario 

justify has wicked speed. Decided he's going to the front but he will stay in two lane or even the three lane. He won't risk getting trapped or boxed in by stalking. He will avoid the rail cuz it's very deep and tiring. Big sandy is famous for it's wide sweeping turns. If you get caught wide your screwed. Justify has won alone on the front so this will force challengers to go inside or risk stuck wide. Belmont has a very short stretch. You think your out of the turn and your not. It causes many riders to move too soon. He will have challengers. Whereas all his other races he didn't have to gut it out. They will stick with same game plan he won with before. Only this track won't have a river as an outside passing lane. He's not going to get .45 sec half for separation and he's not going to be able to walk the dog  home in .51 sec. 

Xtra tips - card is chalky all day. Bee Jersey who's in the met mile looks as good as any racehorse I've ever seen. No horse is ever a lock but don't try to beat him, look for value in exotics even exactas. Bolt d oro defected from the triple crown and cut back in distance. He's very fast but young horses don't fare well against older veterans like him. So careful using him. Good Samaritan is also looking like 10 million ... Look for value again. 

Anyhoo the Belmont is turning out not to be cheap to bet. Unless you wanna go with the favorite. But I never risk 2bucks to win a dime. 

silver66
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I guess

13 is a lucky number for justify

Silver66

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Hmmm?

Watching  the race, my girlfriend who is animal sensitive, started to cry when looking at Justify's eyes during after race coverage.? Maybe she senses something??? 

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That was race fixing

I'm furious. The NYRA at its best and why I won't race it or play it. 

Justify was vulnerable with noble Indy going to front to soften him up. The connections were guaranteed another 20 million if they won. So they sent the cross trained longest shot on the board to the front to block justifies right flank. It insured justify would get at least .5 to .1 mile soft fractions and it did. He had plenty left to come home in. 

Restoring hope is a stone cold closer and if he hadn't be used he would have a decent chance to hit the board . So who cares? The people who bet on him sure did. Not so much win tickets but exotics. Every horse that runs is supposed to be ridden to be placed as forwardly as possible. He was ridden to protect justify. He pinned noble Indy and for any other horse it would have been suicide to go outside at that track. 

It's an absolute disgrace .... Btw the horse is part owned by GSH aka George soros holdings. 

Justfy was sweating like a pig cuz of the amount of lasix used to sweat out the chemicals. Heard he wasn't at the spit box (testing) right after anyway. 

The only good thing was gronkowsi ran a monster race, he missed the break was behind twenty lengths and came flying like a train for second. He's much better than justify. 

The stewarts won't even question that ride. That's not race riding it freaking cheating. That's why they couple entries so you know horses are teamed up together. Look back to secretariats ky derby. His saddle cloth is 1A. That tells bettors the other entry is there to ensure an honest pace. If either win you get paid. 

They shelled out 80 million to win a million purse money. 

I'll just add this to box of cheats 

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Any number

Was good for justify. 

Everyone saw on tape how lame he is. He couldn't walk the day after the derby. Baffert screwed up and let him get taped before his morning cocktail. He was in too much a rush to show off and got caught red handed. His excuse was mud allergies to the pasterns hahaha wtf is that? 

Not one racing official questioned it. 

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forgot

noble Indy who was supposed to be the challenger , co pace setter, rabbit is co owned by win star too who also co owns justify. So his reinsman ignored pletchers trainer instructions.

i knew win star was low but not this low. 

You will never see any records broke any great moves again in any crown races. All walk the dogs ...

dont be surprised if you don't see him at all or at least until the breeders cup. 

I would NEVER breed to either of them. This isn't going to change until the point system goes away, that's if there are any punters left. The euros, ozzies, Japanese and kiwis running a much cleaner game. 

Only thing is a lot of my know it all peers had to eat large chunks of crow cuz gronk ran a real race. I took some serious insults for pushing him hard. Then again that's why I can do what I do, even if one is 20 something to 1. I forget his final odds. 

Tenfold and hofburg both had to be seriously checked and no way there are closing into fractions 4 seconds slower than workout time. Along with restoring hope weaving all over blocking them and pinning bravados. 

The track made a pile too cuz of the massive handle and their obscene take out. Plus all those $2 win tickets won't be cashed. 

The regular and big players saw what happened. After they age out no one will be left and rightfully so. They can host races like polo matches on private tracks. Forget the overnights, pay an entry fee for every race. Why should public money fund this fraud. 

Oh the stories I could tell.... 

Ruffian
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Didn't catch it at first

But the starting gate wasn't even set properly. It wasn't against rail. It was out in the 2 almost 3lane and you can see that clearly on the replay. Meaning justify didn't have to leave from the deeper dirt of the one hole. 

Every little bit helps .... Sheesh. If I watch it again wonder what I'll see 

Ruffian
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Sad sad sad

I hate being right sometimes. Guess what horse just came up unraceable?  There is no inked stud deal cuz I'm guessing that was contingent on him getting in the gate again. So the latest wonder with the silver fox was good for 111 days. 

So all the stupid people are all over ruffian saying his worth millions and million? Really how so? He's unproven as a sire and he needs 4 good legs just to live let alone breed. How can you even insure him? 

No to mention I don't want to breed to a horse that they were afraid couldnt take an honest pace. 

I feel pity and fear for that horse. He should have NEVER set foot on a track. Give the silver fox credit for masking his pain so well. 

This pales in comparison to DR DRIP. Thank heavens after unimaginable torture he's  dead. Guess what the punishment was?  Not one GD thing. The worst case I've ever even heard of. So pardon me cuz I have a whole lot of trouble to make. It will be good training for anon neets. I don't care if I lose my license cuz a whole lot people failed at their jobs and they are going to pay. The unwritten code is we keep in the industry but not this time. 

I'm naming names. Stewart's, vets, officials, grooms, trainers stabled in same barn. That goes for you too PETA. Edit: that's gonna include sports writers too. 

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