KY derby 2018

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Turdite
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KY derby 2018

Two top notch colts worked bullets ( fastest time clocked for the day) training up to the 3/10/18 San Felipe. Bolt d'oro and Mckinzie both went the first 1/4 23 and change. 

Mckinzie went 7furlongs and I couldn't see a thing wrong with the baffert trainees work. He moved willingly and fluidly. Just what you want to see right now. 

Bolt d'oro a very talented colt in need of a trainer. Currently being trained by jack ass owner mike ruis worked 6f. He's coming off a non serious surgery to remove bone chips. It's a slow healing surgery and I'm not fond of blow out works anyway. I didn't like his rhythm and ears pinned back. He did show better speed breaking off from his lead pony than he has before. I see no improvement over last year so far. 

Entries are still open so not much else to say yet. 

Good magic last years 2 yr old champ was 3rd last week. No concerns as he's been off for almost 4 months and he wasn't cranked. He just tired the last furlong and wasn't pushed hard either.  It was at oaklawn and track was slow and tiring. It was a workout for him really. 

Tenfold a pony I really like but don't see how they can get him ready for the derby. He's a running fool tho. 

Next few weeks will show the contenders. 

Ruffian
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Small update

Holendorfer is considering entering kanthanka in the San Felipe. Makes him my top pick although I'll cover with Mckinzie and add lonho who is training impressively to the exotics. Don't think he fast enough to win but he can make the board. Neither are confirmed yet. 

Before the points system these guys knocked heads every few weeks. Now they avoid each other. I'm expecting a decent price on kanthanka. I think he will be 3rd choice but it's Santa Anita and they are freaks out there. 

Never toss the speed at SA. 

ag1969
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Hi Ruff

I don't know much about horses, but odds are, that a 7th Day Adventist Horse will win this year.  Don't say I never gave you a tip.wink

Ruffian
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Lullzzzz

You know my boys are all pagans but none of these are mine. They don't train on Sunday so they could be attending tent revivals. I'll have to ask around. Hehe

Ruffian
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Ok

There are really like 20 that deserve attention but I'm bringing attention to Firenze fire in the Gotham stakes. He's getting no respect despite having beat the 2 yr old champ at 1/16th. 

He has no popular pedigree but he's a throwback to the golden age. He has twice as many starts as most already. He hasn't shown brilliant speed but he's never had to. He trains rather blah. He reminds me of another horse who for not dirty riding by Jerry Bailey would have won the Belmont and triple crown. That's horse would be smarty jones and he's trained by smartys trainers son and close friend of mine Jason. 

Of course I want him to do well but I'm more critical of him cuz he is my friend.  He's a serious racehorse and I'm glad he's not getting attention. Higher odds derby day..... But same as the others he has to dance the dances. 

Lucas's promises fulfilled came out if his win great and Lucas is always a threat. This is his best shot in several years. At 80 he's not training 400 anymore. Edit: forgot to mention promises fulfilled is by blistering fast shackleford who wired the Preakness a few years back. This SOB is fast like his daddy but only 2 ever won the derby wire to wire. You have to rate and route run or both to win with a 20 horse stampede. Unfortunately oaklawn doesn't have trackus so I cant review his actual speed. Yet, he beat a field of 7 figure ponies at 18/1.  Coach still has it. 

Hes a controversial character but he grabbed me up once and told me to live every day like its my last cuz one day it will be. I never forgot that nor am I sure why he told me that on a very foggy gulfstream track one morning. I think he was kinda curious why I selected my boss to work with. Cuz my mentor had major pull with him too. Everyone wanted to work with coach. The answer was simple by boss was 1,000 miles closer to home and coach is a prick. He's not known for kindness to humans. We get along fine cuz I can be as nasty as him. 

Anyhoo next two weeks will pare down the field more. 

Ruffian
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70% chance of rain

at Santa Anita and mick ruis owner/ trainer says he will scratch bolt d' oro if it rains. He's been bitching to any pair of ears that will listen how his horse was screwed out of champ 2yr old to good magic. Now he has a chance to prove it and he's gonna scratch??? Who the hell scratches on the dirt cuz of rain?  The derby is often on a sloppy track will he scratch there too? 

Gronkowski from Ireland , yes Ireland won a derby pointed overseas race so he's in.  Most people don't know this but beilichek is big time into horses. 

Hes by one if my fav EU studs lonhro. Who seems to produce all surface winners. Speed and stamina what's not to like. 

Kathanka is entered but he needs an honest pace to run at. 

Ruffian
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Mendelssohn .

the hope of coolmore bought this purple of purple blooded horse just for the derby and he just won the Carson stakes and he's off to Dubai for more derby points. 

His win came on poly turf but he's out of scat daddy who threw all surface winners. He's nothing like Caravaggio. I'm looking forward to see him on real dirt. He's a push button horse trained by  Aiden  obrien  who is the top trainer in the world. 

I do like their attempt to bring foreign horses cuz I want to see the betting pools combined. He has two others on deck as well. 

The hype horse of the week is bafferts justify. He will stretch out to a mile in an allowance. He's well bred but he looks like a Clydesdale. He's fast as hell but that body type struggles on two turns... Very talented but I don't see how he can be ready anyway. 

Lot of action this weekend ....  just hope bolt doesn't scratch.  Plus the gothem is going off in ny ... Have my eye on a few including Firenze fire. Times will be slow cuz track is still deep and winterized. Hopefully the crazy weather won't cause a cancellation. 

Ruffian
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Quick thoughts

San Felipe live up to its billing. Mckinzie finish a head over bolt d'oro at the finish line. Rough riding raced saw Mckinzie DQ'd but it's immaterial. BDO ran a fabulous race off of 4 month layoff. Mckinzie looks like a bounce is due off the ultra game effort. Lonho who set the early pace showed he's a pure sprinter. 

The gotham enticed looked really green winning. He has room to improve. He never put his head down and seemed unsure of what he was doing. Sadly my friends horse Firenze fire, I didn't see a thing to like about him despite picking up a few points. He's regressed off his champagne win.  I would pull him off the trail and go for easier races and for the cash. He might fit in the belmont but not the derby. Highly thought of Free drop billy cutting back in distance and class was eh.  I think he needs to do the same. They are just 2nd tier. N

Tampa bay derby sneaky good quip won and a determined flame away both showed marked improvement. They should both move on. 

I'll need to watch the tapes a few more times and check individual times. Keep in mind you don't want your horse peaking this early. 

Gronkowsis connections will do the smartest thing they can do and are bringing him him to the USA for the bluegrass or wood. No word on the obriens yet. 

Also quite a few others to debut like Catholic boy. 

I think in a few hours justify debuts .., it's Harding keeping up on three continents. 

Ruffian
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Had time to review

And watch the freak trained by the silver fox justify romp today. It's his second start and baffert must be worried as hell to be rushing this one to the derby. Justify is due to start next in the Santa Anita derby.

Wow wow wow wow wow wow wow people are crowning him already.  this is what I see:   madness..a young talented 3yo just beat 4 overmatched contemporaries and is being anointed the 2nd coming. he won by 6 in good not spectacular time ..he didn't win by 15 in 134...this is a good horse who will not be given the time to reach his full potential because of typhoid derby fever...he will be a strong bet against in the SA DERBY where I am fairly confident he will lose. NO trainer worth there license will concede anything to a 3yo who just beat 4 overmatched contemporaries in average time so they'll be lining up a good field of horses to run against him...slow the coronation folks we have not yet decided who is KING.

yes he's by scat daddy..... But he has to dance the dances. 

Ruffian
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This was my prelim list

until I saw justify run and I think he should be moved down to the nine spot after seeing him run. It does not include any foreign horses. Since I haven't seen them against American dirt horses yet. 

1.Good Magic ( yeah he was third but it's a prep) 
2.Tenfold ( a running fool ) 
3.Justify (Disappointing win. He should have galloped by 20)
4.Magnum moon
5.Promises fulfilled
6.Flameaway
7.Bravazo
8.Instilled regards ( training great again) 
9.Mckenzie ( bounce coming) 
10.Bolt doro
11.Zing  zang ( my fav long shot) 
12.Avery Island.

These are the best 3yr olds I have seen so far, whether they get enough points to make the derby field is another story...also if track comes up wet, just about any horse can win the derby, as proven just last year by Always dreaming. 

With 8 weeks to this will change but as of today I stand by it. 

Although kanthanka really disappointed me. He's just not a two turn horse. He was sharp as hell and no excuse to not gain on backing up front runners. 

Oh yeah I tossed out some highly touted ones I know ... And I left off a few who haven't debuted either. I can't rate them off their two yr old form. 

Ruffian
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Dam it to hell

Was on a private site when someone mentioned in critique of BOb baffert and Mourinho, and Reach the world. ...  So this confused me, because of course Mourinho is running saturday in the rebel...now mourinho is not running in the rebel...I must say, because I'm not a PC type, nothing about Mourinho's running style suggested that he was a 10f horse yet there he was being pushed along to be a derby horse; ditto last year, baffert was on the record saying that RTW was his belmont horse. But he lost mastery to a condylar fracture. So he was drilling speed works into RTW trying to accelerate his development that ended in his death,   now this year we have a possibly brilliant Justify, who just broke his maiden being fast tracked to get to the derby...at some point, the welfare of the horse has to come before the trainer or for that matter the owners selfish desires...these animals don't have a say in whether they're ready or willing to compete...for crying out loud BOB, think about the horse first, and what is best for the animal before you put them in the grind of your program. Rest in peace, beautiful Mourinho, enjoy the peace and tranquility of the other side, my heart breaks for you, and for me this TC season has been tarnished just like last years. 

I really hate this biz- I can only hope when this job is complete I can find some other way to earn a crust of bread. I've said this before and I'm a big hypocrite - cuz I'm a player and players are gonna play. I tried staying away. I was out. I need to learn how to make French fries. There simply is NO way to control this biz. This is just one of hundreds of reasons I hate that SOB. 

Ruffian
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Lost a post

somehow or somewhere. Might have hit wrong thread. 

Anyhoo....   Avery island is lame, scans showed nothing. Not enough time left to allow the issue resolve by itself. Any loss of training time now pretty much put you on the shelf. 

Heard rumours about a few others. The most well known is enticed. Nothing confirmed yet. 

Ruffian
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Rebel stakes

magnum moon crushed a solid field today including bafferts highly touted solimini. 

Zing zang didn't do as well and I knew he wouldn't cuz the front pace was never going to be quick enough and the stretch too short for his style. 

This was an excellent group and it showed some who are not going to be effective at two turns. Keep in mind we are judging for qualities for one single race. That doesn't mean they aren't good horses. It just means they aren't derby horses. We are looking for ones who can get 10 panels, can route run, start and stop and restart. 

In a few hours my favorite tenfold will show what he has. I just don't know how he can get enough foundation under him. But he's top notch. Magnum moon is ready but I have no idea how to keep him this sharp until May. Another race might hurt more than help right now. 

This is a serious good bunch this year and it won't be cheap to cover them at the Windows. At least not as it stands at the moment. It might we wiser to play across the board rather than up and down this year. Meaning win, place, show vs exotics too soon to tell tho. 

I have have to review the race for my tosses. More later.... 

Ruffian
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Tenfold

won against a very seasoned pletcher horse and he won not being tight. Great horses do that - win when they aren't at their best. I can only hope he's given the time he needs and not pushed. 

However, there is no way assmussen can have him derby ready in 45 days. He should not press and enter him in the AK derby. He's simply not ready. Look for this monster later in season. 

Oh and sporting chance he just isn't a derby horse. Nice future sprinter ... Maybe 7 furlongs but no more. Derby toss even if he gets the points. 

Baffert is sending solimini east to the wood. Means he has no faith in him. 

No one else has appeared on the radar ... Yet, and no one else might not. 

Ruffian
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Sigh

well I watched the AK derby. One of my top picks with HOF rider Gary Stevens on top of  bravados just stood up in irons past the 1/4 pole and it took him almost a half mile to gear him down. No news on what happened. He walked off but something is wrong. 

Marmello at 99-1 cut blazing fractions in 23, 46, 111, so no excuse for the closers. Noble Indy won by a stretch over sailor boy and my boy Jack came flying home for third.  With the best horse not in contention I can't really rate this bunch. My gut is telling me they are second tier. 

I really need to look at it a few more times but that was a 100 point race so noble Indy is in. He had blinkers on and I know he didn't see the other two closers coming, neither did his jock. So I can't say he has more to give cuz he wasn't asked. He's a big ? For now but he's in. 

Ruffian
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Runaway ghost is IN

wow, wow, wow.... Runaway ghost took the speedy sunland with a 3 wide trip where he rated against early fractions of 21 and change and 45 and change. Best part is he went the final in 14.88 which is a MUST for a derby horse. 

Wonderful backstory but that doesn't win the derby. What does it this colt rated beautifully and showed a very nice turn foot when asked. Where does he fit? I dunno yet. But he is in and he belongs. This boy likes to run from the start. 

Ruffian
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Correction

he came home in 12.88 and that is a very, very good closing time. 

Also gronkowsi will NOT be competing in the bluegrass. If he comes to the USA he looses all his derby points. mendellson has points and is headed to the uae derby. That would really disadvantage gronkowsi. 

Smart move because of a stupid rule. I still can't judge him cuz I can't get film on his action. But Churchill is very friendly to grass horses on the dirt. That's beacause it so deep making higher leg action not a huge detractor. 

Ruffian
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Bloody hell

I just watched bolt d'oro crank out a 45 sec half mile while working!!!!! 

This is the best bunch of 3yr old in 40-50 years. 

No wonder baffert cross entered Mckinzie in the bluegrass. 

Then again he's claiming justify walks on water - he's a scat daddy out of ghost zapper mare. So I kinda believe that. 

Ruffian
Turdite's picture
Next five preps

Are solid quality. 

Watched the ones for Florida derby. One of my personal favorites is Catholic boy he's really a grass horse but he's tight and gonna be a bear. Audible a fav is not going to get a chance to show his late kick chasing this bunch. 

Strike the power is not going the distance. I'm certain he can't get the distance if you drop him on the 3/16th. 

Spoke with coach and he said bravados was tight but got hit with a loose shoe. Also spoke with Jason servis and he's going on with Firenze fire. His white count came back high but he hasn't missed time. 

Both audible and Catholic boy need to be 1 or 2 to punch their way in. 

Ruffian
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UAE derby

Have several taking the Dubai route to get in. The first is the 3miilion yearling mendhlson trained by aiden obrien ind the uae derby.  That was a bargain price for him. Half sister to champion dirt mare beholder and of course my fav the deceased scat daddy. Gee does he have a set of lungs on him. His first time on dirt but he won on poly dirt. Gold town is a monster and this is his home track. Making it tougher is the sneaky good sin candy ride,  retride. Any of them can win and it won't be easy. 

Since the Dubai World Cup is on the same card. If your punting you better figure in North American. I really don't know if west coast can beat him. He's that good.  I'll have to watch the ladbrokes totes cuz their is no on track wagering in Dubai. 

Edit: I haven't included any work/race times cuz they are meaningless at Meydan. We have a run up here in the USA before the clock starts. There it starts as soon as the gate opens making Meydan appear to be much slower than it is. 

Ruffian
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Update

gronkowsi punched his way in via the EU route with a win today. He was forced that route as I explained above. Anyhoo he's a severe disadvantage. He's never run on real dirt or gone over a mile. He has no gears at all but boy can he sustain a solid run. He absolutely was on idle the last 70 meters in this win. I really wanna see him on American dirt. 

Also completely forgot to mention obriens other two in the uae derby. 

Seahence also is by Scat Daddy and the third, threeandfourpencd, is a son of War front. War fronts best son since declaration of war. 

All three ran in  the March 9 32Red Patton Stakes on the Poly track in Ireland with Mendelssohn winning followed by  Threeandfourpence and Seahenge. Any of them could have been left to take the EU route and face gronkowsi today.  Instead, O'Brien opted for the stiffer competition in Dubai. Both coolmore and sheik mo don't have a derby trophy and they both want it bad. Imagine what a powerhouse you are when your best competition is yourself. Must be nice eh?  We shall find out soon. 

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