Last warning before the Autumn 2011

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#1 Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 6:40am
Joined: Jun 14, 2011

Last warning before the Autumn 2011

Edited by: Shill on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:06am
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 8:56am
Joined: Jun 15, 2011

Interest Rates

The implosion of USTs implies a resulting, or a causative (pick one) rise in interest rates. That disaster should be our biggest fear, as nobody gets out of that unscathed. Deficits increase, municipalities can't roll over debt, risk assets lose some allocation in all major portfolios, the housing market gets even worse with higher mortgage rates, and even gold will take a temporary hit due to the myth that high interest rates are bad for non-earning assets and reduce inflation (I would argue that rising interest rates can increase consumer prices over time, but that isn't the prevailing mainstream view, and majority perception is what really drives markets short-term). 

Jim Willie, in the latest excerpt posted on (and probably a hundred other places I'm not aware of) talks about a laundry list of "black swans,", but higher interest rates, IMO, whether caused by one of his black swans or not, constitutes the only black swan that matters in the end. 

Also, higher interest rates should result in higher rates of bond purchases by the Fed to attempt to bring them down.