I originally posted this in the comments thread following TF's blog. Thought it might get lost there so posted it here as well. Looking to see if I am crazy or not.
This came to mind today as gold crossed 1550. Is the EE purposely letting gold climb? All day today I read about how gold now looks technically good. Here is my conspiracy:
Margins on gold lowered, shifts people away from silver
Gold crosses 1555 (lower now) and everyone gets excited. This causes TA guys to start buying. Also causes miners to strengthen some more and investors start piling in.
Everyone gets involved, then BOOM, the EE slams the door right in investor's face. Firsts day a drop of $15 is orchestrated to get the attention of the media, then $25-30 the following day.
Shorts pile on, investors who just got in flee and you get a further drop the next few days. Before you know it, gold is down say $75, maybe $100. Silver plunges out of sympathy.
Bill Gross is forecasting that some type of QE3 will be introduced at the Jackson Hole meeting in August. If Uncle Ben can say that the economy is still slowing and a recent, significant drop in gold points to deflation, than QE3 is pushed as the savior.
Am I crazy, or is this more plausible than I might think. If so, maybe we should save some dry powder until the Jackass Hole meeting in August. Still a noob in the PM space, so any thoughts appreciated.