Why they are trading where they are compared to the others.
They have the largest land package by far, so the chances of them having the best is higher than the others.
The other companies didn't even know what they were sitting on until Novo came along. Now they are scrambling to add additional land packages to their portfolios. I would venture to guess that Novo already bought what they considered to be the best land packages at much cheaper prices. The others are merely fighting for the scraps that Novo passed on.
Their premium to the others is well deserved IMO.
The press release said that large core drilling was not accurate but did not go into details. It could be due to the nuggets such samples were not an accurate reflection of reserves. It could be that the large core mixes up the sample so it is hard to know what came from where.
Therefor trenching and mining will be done to get bulk samples.
Without the large core it will not be easy, fast or cheap to test an area, especially down dip. It will be harder to make broad assessments of grade over a large area. Will have to do location by location. We probably will not know widespread grade for years. Since trenching will not work for conglomerate deep in the ground, surface deposits will be explored first and they will have more value.
Fine gold was found mainly as halo around nuggets. Many had hoped the fine grain would be widely spread and at a grade of 10 gpt. If fine grain only exists around nuggets it may mean less gold. However it is likely that the kinds of deposits will vary. The halo is probably evidence of precipitation.
All the pilbarra stocks got hammered on the short trading day on Friday. I will look to add more Novo on Monday. Probably will continue down on Monday, which may present an opportunity for the believers.
The WA mines dep't has approved a 20000 m/t bulk sample applied for by Artemis prior to the Novo deal. The 100 tonne per hour Nickol River gravity gold processing plant is being relocated to Radio Hill processing plant (lights are now back on). An extra Gecko gold circuit is furthermore to be added.
Insto money is generally not going to be riding this thing because of the difficulty of resource estimation. Just mine the damn thing - that's really the only way forward now. That's the way gold was mined for 1000s of years. Artemis is being set up for this and if it's >1 Oz per tonne, who cares about JORC. Just keep on mining until it runs out (possibly never).
Artemis just announced that they found some impressive gold/quartz nuggets (115 oz worth) on their Silica Hills property (not a conglomerate deposit):
And I know there are both fans and haters of him on this site, but in his latest post Bob Moriarty makes what I think are some valid observations about the Novo deposit and mining approach. This guy loves him some sarcasm, but he pretty deftly counters the overreaction to Novo's last press release.
The market has generally misinterpreted (IMO) the Novo release about drilling problems. Sure - resource delineation looks close to impossible at this stage. However, the deposits at the South African Wits were not delineated over 100 years ago. The ore bodies were mined and it never seemed to run out. It actually has never run out. At least one billion ounces remain - but it's too hot at 4km below surface to mine.
If the grade ends up being very good (say 1/2 ounce per tonne) this would yield 10000 ounces from the 20 000 tonne bulk sample. That's $16.5 Million AUD. That would not be a cheap exploration program. It would make it a highly PROFITABLE exploration program. A $10 Million AUD profit is plausible.
The market might not be able to immediately recognise this because exploration programs invariably consume capital, not create it. Even a quarter of an ounce per tonne could be profitable.
It won't take a rocket scientist to work out that - if a profit can be made from a small bulk sample, large scale mining is going to make handsome profits.
No JORC, but handsome, continual profits.
I'm still very bullish! Just wondering if anyone else is, or is hanging in there. Or...is it "bicycles being thrown into the spinifex"?
I'm bullish too. KL is my largest holding, closely followed by Novo.
I also own Artemis and much smaller positions in DeGrey, Kairos and Pioneer. Novo seems to be making rapid progress on Comet Well and can commence exploration work there. I think that Novo will be the big winner here and that Comet Well will produce a lot of gold (although I gather there is more overburden there than at Purdy's Reward) with a higher percentage for Novo. KL is key here with its hands in many of the players and with its knowledge and its cash, I believe it will end up owning much of this play. KL also has the advantage of the Fosterville Swan zone, which when developed (initial slope production is scheduled for mid-2018) alone should substantially increase its value.
All the stocks suffered a setback when Novo's large core drilling did not work as expected (they could not tell where the material that came up came from) and the delay hit the stock prices as many of the get rich quick players exited. That just created opportunities for the believers.
Going to hang on for a while. One of the only green ones I own at present.
Good to see you’re on board guys! Cav - I totally agree with you, re KL. Eric Sprott gives us some confidence that this thing is the real deal. Imagine KWN’s future headlines “Trillionaire - Eric Sprott!” if all ducks line up. I wouldn’t mind having KL shares too!
Of Kirkland, Artemis, De Grey, Pioneer. I sold the Novo shares for reasons I explained earlier.
I like the activities Artemis is deploying. It will start on colbalt ore asap. It might be a small amount of cobalt ore but it will help to keep things running towards a make or brake point on the Wits2.0 story. Secondly they are slowly increasing their grip on the Karatha area. Slow but sure steps.
Only own Novo. They have the most and best dirt. The others simply got lucky and until this year has no idea what they were sitting on.
No plan on selling Novo. Will hopefully be gifting it to my kids in 40 years.
I hold KL, NSRPF (otc Novo), ARTTF(otc Artemis), DGMLF (otc DeGrey), DMNXF(otc Sayona), MPJFF(otc Kairos) and PIONF(otc Pioneer).
I have held Kirkland Lake since it was Crocodile Gold (Fosterville mine, itself formerly owned by AuRico) which was bought by New Market Gold which was then bought by KL. As my long term hold indicates, I don’t plan on selling. Actually added too my KL holding at the beginning of this year. My largest holding overall.
My next biggest Pilbara holding is Novo, followed by Artemis and then small positions in the others with Kairos being the largest of the smaller holdings. Bought more Artemis on Friday.
I will hold KL and Novo forever (if Wits 2.0 is indeed Wits 2.0). Maybe Artemis too depending on how profitable Purdy’s area ends up being. As Horse said, Novo is the big play here and the only one who first knew what the basin was going to be (although David Lenigas at Artemis argues that point saying they all knew what was out there but then why didn’t anyone commit to a discovery program before?) In the end, I will probably sell my smaller scattershot Pilbara holdings and move that money into Novo. Just want wide exposure for now until we see what this thing is.
I missed on Bitcoin initially, so I got into LTC assuming there would be would catch up. That’s worked so far. I missed out on Novo at first so I got into Artemis assuming there will be some percentage catch up as much of their gold is sunlighting with little overburden so it will come out first. After they pop I will move a portion into Novo, whose gold is down dip but if the theory plays out, vastly more expansive.
That’s the plan anyway.
“The best laid plans of mice and men go often askew.” -Robert Burns
For me the argument that Novo has been discovering and beating the drum most effectively is a historical fact. At the same time it is not valid when it comes to holding shares. Once the structure has been laid open it will be a matter of digging up what is there. A bit like follow the yellow brick road. Today Novo has a market cap of 850 mil; Artemis 200 million. So Novo needs to mine 4 times the volume of Artemis. Hence my smaller (indirect) exposure to Novo in comparison to Artemis. I appreciate counter arguments!!
Novo's 11/24 news release stated that "a comprehensive overview of trenching activities will be provided approximately mid-December once this fieldwork is complete." We are at mid-December. Hopefully we will get some good news soon.
"Geologic logging of core holes will be collated with trench data and used to generate a 3D model of the conglomerate package."
Nagrom has indicated that the first bulk grade results will be available in January. I would really like to see some grade results as soon as possible. That is what the market is waiting for, and the longer those results are delayed the more pressure there will be on the stock. I have to believe that they know some grade results now.
Any thoughts on what the overview of trenching will show? More details of how the conglomerate horizons sit and the space in between? At 11/24 they had 7 trenches with an 8th underway with "many more planned." So we will probably see more trenches and their locations.
These are some interesting drillresults. The Wits 2.0 thesis still holds....
Take always from QH/ Taylor.
3 ton sample is in the lab.
they took 12-20 bulk samples, in short term, "very, very short term" will have assay results.
they are starting exploration at Comet Well (CW). "There is a lot of gold at CW." "It is a large gold system."
Gold is not super gene, it is where it was deposited and not moved. Therefore PR is not a localized freak show.
Take always from John Kaiser
very narrow, not know if economical
CW should have work permits by the end of February
Juniors other than Novo may be undervalued especially those with near surface deposits, DeGrey and Kairos mentioned among others
Artemis board on hot copper
Shamer said that in the PR area he has seen three small operations where people metal detect, than scape off material, metal detect again and repeat. Gold nuggets found down 3 to 5 meters.
elsewhere PVG 29 per cent post tax IRR, Novo may be higher, CW has 7 km open pitable target.
the next few months should be very interesting in the Pilbarra. Let's get this forum going and share information. This may be a generational opportunity.
Markedtofuture had posted a reference to this on main street. Found the direct link posted on HotCopper and figured it’s worth reposting here.