Belmont 2017

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Ruffian
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Belmont 2017

Ok senior investment is my new fav 3yr old.  First thoughts were he wouldn't hAndle surface at Belmont  park. After watching the replays several times, I now realize that the huge wide turns are perfect for a huge specimen of a horse like this who much to my disappointment  had trouble negotiating the tight turns of the smaller tracks, especially when the pace is quick..he was literally climbing the first half mile of the preakness...looked like he was running on a stairmaster..however the slower pace, and wider turns of big sandy is tailor made for this longwinded animal with the monster stride...when he comes thundering down the stretch at belmont park there isn't a 3yr old running anywhere that can hold him off..... Belmont stretch just looks long it's really rather short. The size of the turns make it seem so long. 

I've had a chance now to watch just about everyone so even tho I have no clue who will enter I'm still sticking my neck out.  Btw that includes the Japanese champ epcharis who skipped the Preakness for this race. 

Classic empire should be freshened up for the travers instead of running here. 

Also for anyone interested. It looking like aqueduct will be closed and Belmont downsized and remodeled. It's all part of what I foresaw. Really sad cuz some great historic events happened there. 

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Update

Classic empire is in training for the Belmont. Knowing that they already inked a stud deal for him last year it makes sense, kinda. Casse must be very confident. I didn't expect this cuz 12 furlongs is a killer. But this is one race where pedigree is extremely important and he's bred top and bottom for it. 

Toss him at your own peril. 

It's very unlikely cloud computing will be entered cuz it was remarkable he got the 1.3/16mi. He really is a miler and CE wearing blinkers never saw him coming, nor did Julian. 

Epicharis is on his way to the US. Early odds are 9/2 seems a bit low to me. Jboys echo is returning and so is patch. 

Always dreaming will not be. 

IMHO this a solid group with no real standout. Makes for great wagering. 

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Update

Well of course as suspected Preakness winner cloud computing is NOT running in the Belmont. Instead Chad brown will enter twisted tom. Even knowing the results I would never have had cloud computing in my wagers. You see folks you really have to pay attention to who the trainer is. Some have magic potions that make average horses perform a lil better than they should. Think the Russians, German swimmers and lance Armstrong.  Like yesterday when a certain white haired trainer won a grade 1 off an 8month layoff. 

True timber is confirmed and tapwrit, Irish war cry is working toward it as well. McCracken is on the work tab and so is gormley. 

Btw twisted tom is a gelding and only two have won the Belmont. He's by a stayer tho ...

classic empire is confirmed too. I think casse is making a mistake running here. I don't get his motivation.  Even if he wins he's gonna have to miss out on a lot of other money. 

Btw some folks asked me privately to give exact picks. I only do that when its so obvious you can hit for a tenner or two.  There are too many variables and not knowing people's financial income I refrain. I play exotics and it can get pricey just playing parti-wheels. But I will tell you who to toss and let you decide how to play the remainder of them according to  your means. 

Anyhoo all this crap started with auxiliary starting gate in the derby and then the point system just ruined the derby. Every dirt race should be limited to 14 starters period. These collisions happen every single year cuz of that giant space between gates. Get rid of it and then we will see true champs emerge instead of ones  like American Pharaoh. A very good horse but far from a great one. 

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Irish war cry working

I was very high in this horse pre derby. So I'd like to comment about the Irish war cry, and his chances at 12fs...on one hand he's bred to go 12, but on the other hand his hasty retreat in the roller derby is normally a tell tale sign that he's distance challenged...a skilled handicapper friend of mine thinks he hated the slop at churchill, but I am not so sure, cuz  when thoroughbreds hate slop their action is usually off, n he was traveling so sweet for the first mile of the ky roller derby...when he folded like a cheap suit. the horse that absolutely hated the slop was state of honor, who looked like he was going to fall down during the race. 

thus only way to go for me is play the horses I like and hedge my bets with the war cry, because I do believe he's the most talented 3 yr old up to 9fs, and if he wins the belmomt then he's the best 3 yr old period. 

As for tapwrit who's confirmed.... He's training horribly and worse he will NEVER get 10f let alone 12f. He's all speed on the bottom and you will hear about his sire tapit having the past 2 Belmonts. Ignore it, cuz tapit isn't a true distance sire. The bottom on both of his winners were solidly stacked back generations with stamina. He's a toss 

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Ok I have to eat my words

And the race isn't run yet but very live is brown TWisted Tom. I watched his run and crunched his speed figured with his closing run in the TESSIO and he is capable of winning this race. More so cuz Chad brown was frankels muse and frankel was a master chemist. Brown primarily is a turf trainer and he hot, too hot on the turf AND dirt.  Leaving me to conclude to play the ones I like and hedge with twisted tom.

also I got my first look at the Japanese horse and I was stunned. He's tiny very small barely 15 hands, but so was his grandsire northern dancer. Who just tore up racing and the shed rows. He's disadvantaged by travel.BUT I have seen thousands of his line but none like him. He's got a massive girth, huge nostrils, deep flanks, long back just like ND. He is live here. Even better he's very rested so he will be turning a real workout over big sandy in a few days. He's live unless his workout sucks 

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The latest

Irish war cry confirmed. True timber is scratched due to a fever. Hollywood handsome is confirmed. 

Now IMO the Belmont is thee hardest race to handicap cuz these horses have never gone 12 furlongs and never will again. So we really have to check pedigree and who can carry it over distance, history tells us pure speed won't win and neither will deep closers. By the time you hit that second giant sweeping turn you better be in. 

so im  back to twisted Tim. He was primarily what we call a grinder. Yet, as I mentioned above he showed speed in the TESIO which used to be a Preakness prep but is no longer and it's run at laurel. A too hot trainer with a horse showing speed in his last race against less company. This is a tuff one. It's gonna cost but I cant toss him. 

Moving on to Irish war cry. He's simply proven and sharp to 9f. His speed and closing fraction all good. Yet, he has two marks on his record when he folded. Was it the track? Your guess is as good as mine but a win will make the top dirt 3yr old with a win. I strongly suspect he doesn't want to go that far. 

Todd pletcher you can't dismiss him here. He sucks big time at pimlico but he's the king at Belmont. He's gonna send his to the front no matter; speed or not speed. cuz he knows to win this race you have to try to wire it. The fastest horse doesn't always win. The one who blinks last does. 

Gormley is still a maybe.... 

What im doing here is narrowing the field of 13 or 14 down to five. Which means if classic empire has the lead coming out of the turn only a grinder will nudge him out. 

Still early PPs not drawn , more to come! T

edit: epicharis he was in quarantine but no sight of him and it's really too late to put a solid work in him this close. I can't help but be stunned by his appearance . Even tho he's just barely a hand over a pony. 

2nd edit: I should mention that first timers at Belmont often get hung out in the turns cuz  it appears your on the straight and your in the turn still. So you have to make sure your horse is on the right lead and you don't get caught five wide. I know this well as I rode it countless times. Plus the sand stings man and beast both from the kickback. 

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Epicharis

He had a work today and on paper it sucked. But I saw it and it's not what it appears. He worked on the training track 5f in 106.0 flat. Very dull but his last 3f were in 37 flat and he started at jog. He also was quite eager when he hit the lane. Additionally he galloped a full 9f before the timed work. 

Two things of concern are that his trainer wants to sit off the pace and his jock has no experience on big sandy. 

From a wagering perspective overseas horses are generally over bet. So expect an underlay as he's already down to 6-1. 

Multiplier is in - just toss him. 

Im still going with my gut pick of senior investment. He had an easy work and looked just fine 

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Huge update

Classic empire is scratched. He has a huge abscess in the same foot that caused his problems earlier this year. He was, the class, the chalk and main speed. 

It creates a huge problem for plodders and deep closers more than usual. Meantime just may be the rabbit in here. If he doesn't blow out a 22 sec first 1/4 then they will walk the dog to the wire. OH wait, this is looking like a turf race pace. 

No one knows for sure if their horse can go this far. You never know until they do it. Will rethink this as I find pletchers choice of entry interesting in here. 

Patch can gallop all day but can he do it fast enough? He draws outside and Irish war cry PP 4 I think and is the chalk at 7-2. 

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Oh and btw

you can now see part of what I see for free on xbtv.com click on triple crown or works tab and they will play one after another for you. Beginning with the most recent going back. 

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Major upDate

I was gonna write this last night but it was very late when I go the official workout times from clockers and the NYRA vet reports. First they are printing that epicharis breezed not worked and that it was handily. His work wasn't as bad as the time indicated but it was a work. For a breeze it was awful.  What's the difference ? A work it just no urging at all, a breeze is a big step up where your urging them. 

Then the vet report came and they use bute on him. Ok that's really an nsaid for inflation and minor pain.  We are required to withdraw in 24 hrs in ny. Then this morning he did not work or even walk the shed row. That's a lame horse and he should be scratched. But the racing gods want this horse to run. Needless to say he's a complete toss, even exotics. 

This isn't a thunder snow. Whom btw has won a grade one in uk since the derby. Leaving us to conclude the poor fella freaked over the sight of his first wet track. 

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Btw

If your unfamiliAr with judging workouts. Click I'm songbird on xbtv. That's an excellent work.  She on the undercard p, first start back off a long layoff. Note her ears pricked forward and how long it takes to ease her. That actual work is over when the rider stands in the irons with bend in the knees. Also watch her surge in the lane. 

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Holy bull

Also in my mail sadly was news of the passing of one of last great legends of the turf :holy bull. We have nothing like him and never will. 

he was a throwback to golden era. RIP

which btw as this years edition of the Belmont is run. We will remember and realize just how great secretariat was. His legend grows with each running. 

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Last thoughts

my last post didn't save last night so I'll try to repeat it. 

Senior investment is still A ticket. Then comes gormley. I didn't talk about him cuz he only confirmed right before the PP draw. He's not the fastest but he's a textbook tactical stalker. Which is the kinda horse who mostly wins this race. He is a son of Malibu moon and all MMs can get distance. Also on my list is twisted tom a grinder slowing recent speed. 

Patch deserves some consideration in here in exotics at least cuz that boy a terrible morning work horse can gallop all day. The only question is he fast enough? No he's not but he capable of getting a big chunk of this as the other horses slow. The fastest horse rarely wins the Belmont. 

I just can't find a single reason for Irish war cry to have folded. At 7-2 those are too short odds for me. So those are my main horses and I'll be playing exotics. If your playing do so according to your means. If it's a two buck win ticket that's fine. I might be back with some numbers later but I generally don't make actual wagers until I see them and how they are behaving. I just get gut feelings a few minutes before post. Plus I try to beat the fav and if I can't. I stack value underneath or don't play at all. 

Edit: the track vet scratched epicharis this morning. He has heat and increased pulse in his front foot. Hard to believe the Japanese connection were gonna run him. He's one very lame horse. 

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Wrap up 0-3

wow is all I can say. I had the pace right. It was pedistrian, 2:30 the slowest I can recall. I never considered tapwrit cuz Johnny V who had a choice between him and patch chose patch. 

Again I forgot what I warned everyone about : how dangerous pletcher is at Belmont especially. We say forget pletcher and leave on a stretcher.  Poor twisted tom had his entire back quarter taken off him when Geroux lost control of Hollywood handsome. Senior investment had no shot as he's a closer and was the pace was too slow to close into. I'm not sure how looking at Lee did cuz he was run over from behind too.  Patch and gormley  ran well cuz they were forwardly place as you must by the second turn, 

oh and the Irish ran a game race to hang in. He's gonna be tuff at 10f or less. 

Oh well it's racing and tomorrow is a new day. 

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Wow just wow

My old boss and mentor just got done dressing me down for missing pletcher. I said I hate tapits. He just verbally slapped me for my bias. He said you hate them why? I said for 300k, now will be private they are disappointing. He said I'm far too young to have old horsemen bias. Reminded me he played at the highest level and then started reciting tapits success. Then he proceeded to twist the knife by telling me I haven't been away long enough to forget everything he taught me. 

I was red hot, cuz if that bad then why did you send me 50 head to prep. I reminded him that anything with potential I send to him cuz I never wanted to get on the national scene. I hated it while I was with him. He then told me I was a liar cuz if I hated it why am I following it. He says why not say tapits aren't good value. I said it's the same thing as I did say. He said no it's not. Then he goes .... You ARE HANGING OUT WITH FINANCE PEOPLE.  He quickly snuck in : ruffian before you hang up on me. We all need our asses kicked sometimes. And I did hang up on him. No worries he cannot not talk to me right now hehehe and he knows it. 

Lesson: never argue with a Jew, you will lose. 

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Wow just wow

My old boss and mentor just got done dressing me down for missing pletcher. I said I hate tapits. He just verbally slapped me for my bias. He said you hate them why? I said for 300k, now will be private they are disappointing. He said I'm far too young to have old horsemen bias. Reminded me he played at the highest level and then started reciting tapits success. Then he proceeded to twist the knife by telling me I haven't been away long enough to forget everything he taught me. 

I was red hot, cuz if that bad then why did you send me 50 head to prep. I reminded him that anything with potential I send to him cuz I never wanted to get on the national scene. I hated it while I was with him. He then told me I was a liar cuz if I hated it why am I following it. He says why not say tapits aren't good value. I said it's the same thing as I did say. He said no it's not. Then he goes .... You ARE HANGING OUT WITH FINANCE PEOPLE.  He quickly snuck in : ruffian before you hang up on me. We all need our asses kicked sometimes. And I did hang up on him. No worries he cannot not talk to me right now hehehe and he knows it. 

Lesson: never argue with a Jew, you will lose. 

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