First I apologize for any mistakes I make cuz I'm dog tired,.... But here I go,
l was excited as hell when the odd were set cuz my two top picks are 20/1 and 30/1. I was like thank you , thank you and the track should be dry and fast. So here I go
I'm not sold on always dreaming. He's the derby winner and you gotta respect that but he's never faced adversity. Classic empire drew right outside him and multiplier inside him. So he gonna get it right from the gate. Classic empire while he ran the most incredible race to finish fourth. He was annilate D in the derby by McCracken and then by Irish war cry. Note neither is in here and CE took the brunt of those collisions. He's run two spectacular races within 5 weeks now. How much has it taken from him? I'd not be surprised for a bounce. Casse says he's on the muscle and he is the class.
Hence my horse never even ran in the derby, he showed he's no slop horse. He just wouldn't grab the track and never got going. BIG Change in casses pulled that fool lezcanno off him... For leparoux. Improvement....
My second horse senior investment blew my mind at keeneland. He did what horses aren't supposed to do on short stretches. I'll have win tickets on both of them.
If you have to bet the chalk play tris and back up with value. Like if your gonna go always dreaming then put conquest mo money, hence, etc boxed underneath to create value.
Btw I almost bought that horse. He was a dispersal and sold for a mere 8,500. Then I reminded myself I'm phasing out ... So no regrets. Yes there is cuz I could sold him for a fortune. He's has everything I look for in a sale horse.
Also money mike smith is in the irons on gunnevera. He's a toss for me cuz he was working 1.03 vs horses that were breezing in 58 before the derby. That horse is telling SANO he needs a break. Thank heavens sharp scratched Girvin that foot could never hold up no matter what.
Havent made up mind if or where to use looking at Lee. Haven't had time to see if the distance will hurt or help but it's usually not a good idea to leave an assmussen horse off all tickets.
You may not see it but races are kinda like roller derby a lot of hitting and bumping and if AD isn't sent and doesn't wire it he's gonna be the target. It's rough riding on the east coast and why so many go down.
watch the track bias see where horses are winning from- inside outside, on the front or from behind. Track like pimlico normally play to speed. But they can change the bias on any given day and they do.
This hard for me too going from trainer to handicapper. It's why most trainers don't wager. I'm an exception cuz I'm a degenerate gambler. I'd bet on cockroaches if given the chance.
Oh last thing make sure you look and see if anyone is rank, they saddle in the infield and some don't like it at all.
Im also gonna cover my arse on CE. He's an all class horse and won't have to fight off 20 this round.