Mantis' charts

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Mantis
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Mantis' charts

I thought I'd make a place to share some of my charts and ideas with the good old folks of the watchtower.

I've been doing this for a few years now and in general I think I'm getting quite good at it. though I say so myself !!!

If people show any interest I'll stick around.

Enjoy

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Gold is where its at

I'll kick off with a gold chart. On longer timescale gold is 'still' in a bear trend stretching from the 2011 high. However after multiple attempts gold is testing that resistance again. Can this be the time?

This chart uses log price scale

It will be incredibly bullish if gold can finally break above this channel. With a few inverse head and shoulder possibilities in play gold could get up towards 1600 in quite short order.

If gold is once again repelled by this trendline then another drop will need to be endured. Or used for more stacking.

GuerrillaCapitalist
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Nice to See You Again

Mantis:

It's always nice to see a familiar face from the Watch Tower days. I still check in daily for a few minutes, mostly out of habit rather than for much in the way of market indicators. I do continue to stack just because I can't help myself and my grandchildren continue to multiply.

GuerrillaCapitalist

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GuerrillaCapitalist

Thanks for commenting, nice to see you too, and to know someone noticed my first post on this thread. Yes in those days TFMR was my first stop online everyday. I've drifted from the fold a bit but still stop by for some of Turds free articles when I notice one. If Turd ever enables bitcoin or Dash as payment options I think i will subscribe and frequent the place like I used to.

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GSR

For my second chart I'm looking at the Gold Silver Ratio (GSR). I started paying attention to this when I was a noob. When I saw the ratio rise to 55 ounces of silver equal to 1 ounce of gold I thought, holy crap silver is way too cheap, so I traded gold for silver and went mostly all into silver. Now the ratio is somewhere near 72, its last peak was up at 83 or something. With benefit of hindsight I could have picked a much more opportune time for that trade.  But you live and learn.

Anyway, a bit like Mike Maloney I like to look at long term trends and cycles, so heres a GSR chart going back to the late 1980's using 1 month candles.

Main features should stand out quite easily I have a large flatish/down-sloping channel encompassing the highs and lows during that period. Since 2011 I have another smaller and steeper up-sloping channel which was broken down from when it came to the top of the larger channel (as I predicted at the time).

Despite the break down from that rising channel GSR has managed to cling near the top of the larger flat/down sloping channel. Obviously meaning that silver is still very cheap by comparison to gold.

You may also spot that I have marked two wedges, the first during 2009/2010 broke downwards as silver broke loose and went on a run, rising in price to equal its all time highs around $50. On the GSR chart this is the downwards move towards the bottom of that large channel.

The next wedge is the current one that the GSR is in. A few weeks ago it looked better on my chart and poised to repeat the other wedge, breaking downwards but suddenly a big green candle has come along to try and spoil it and make it look like GSR is going to rise again. Anyway, however that wedge plays out, I still view silver as very obviously cheap compared to gold and I still expect silver will have its bull run and new all time highs.

It is crazy that inflation adjusted silver is at these crazy low levels. If I was conspiratorially minded (actually I am) I'd almost think its suppressed on purpose.

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Ice age timescale of gold and silver

For a cypherpunk used to crypto charts (I've never called myself that before but it sounded good), gold and silver charts are like sitting staring at the wall watching paint dry! There is literally nothing to report on gold's possible breakout of that channel, or GSR possible break downwards.  The charts look almost completely identical to when I posted them a few days ago.

edit: to be fair I'm using month candles though

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Bitcoin percentage market cap

This is interesting for those who follow crypto currencies. If you aren't you really need a good excuse why not. This is the end of the great keynsian experiment. Crypto is not possible to ignore wether you like it or not.

Whats interesting is that bitcoin is rising in fiat terms but falling relative to the entire crypto space. In other words many of the best alts are taking advantage of the fact that bitcoin is struggling to scale up. In some ways bitcoin is a victim of its own success. The amount of people using bitcoin has risen to a level where the blocks transmitted on the network are quite often at capacity. This means delays and higher fees needed if you want the miners to prioritise your transaction.

Its a bit of a minefield and I'm not going to delve into it now. But the takeaway point is that many altcoins, such as etherium, dash, litecoin and many others are having bigger gains than bitcoin just now. And with no solution in sight as how bitcoin will increase the capacity of its network while still being suffiently decentralised I think this trend will likely continue.

truthseeker
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Mantis

I'm praying you stick around.

silverwood
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The 800 pound gorilla in the silver market

"It is crazy that inflation adjusted silver is at these crazy low levels. If I was conspiratorially minded (actually I am) I'd almost think its suppressed on purpose."

What about silver? Is JPM trying to corner the silver market?… seekingalpha.com/article/4066049-jpmorgan-trying-corner-silver-market…does anyone believe that physical silver in the form of bars or coins has the ability to become a “tulip bulb type mania”? Was the price moves that occurred in 2011 a preview of this?
Well here is my theory… JPM, instead of trying to corner the silver market they are trying to corral it!
by definition corral a verb to gather together, confine
What is needed is a goldilock price, that is, not too low and not too high. A price that will allow the miners to make a small profit on silver or as a good byproduct for their bottom line. That is where not too low comes in. And not too high to allow manufactures using silver reasonable prices. And a range bound price to keep the speculators frustrated.
So it has been put out there the JPM is an agent of the Fed. So could it be that JPM has been given the job to keep an orderly silver market?

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truthseeker and silverwood

Thanks for the comments :)

@silverwood. There is no doubt in my mind the central banks suppress silver (and bouy up the stock markets) total control over fiat money is the root of their power. Its not just the US and the FED its global. Silver, historically money, is the/a threat to the system. Turd delves into silver suppression so deep and I have utmost respect for his analysis and it makes sense. Its frustrating watching from the perspective of a precious metals investor or even more so, in respect of someone who sees the matrix for what it is. 

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Bitcoin

I definitely know lots of turdites are interested in or at least curious about bitcoin, which is changed days from when I first frequented this site and endured hostility from certain members when I tried to promote bitcoin. I'm very happy about this more open attitude and it shows how through time bitcoin is gaining more and more mainstream acceptance. My own stance has changed too since then. At that time I was convinced about how bitcoin would decentralise money and bring power to the people and dethrone the banks. Now I see it more as a game changing technology which has huge profit potential. And might still work out to be resistant to central control, or sadly might end up centrally controlled too. 

As of now Bitcoin is still holding onto its title of the king of crypto! The big daddy, although not quite as tightly as it used to (see couple of posts above).

Since bitcoins lows after the 2011 bubble I've charted the price rise on a log scale using a Andrews Pitchfork to mark the channel. I've been using data from the Bitstamp exchange. (Lately there is a lot of divergence on different exchanges due to problems with banks bitfinex in particular looks in trouble and if it fails could impact bitcoin negatively)

The chart looks like this.

Its been the most boring technical analysis ever as far as my chart goes. Nothing really changed in months. So far bitcoin has stayed in the region of this channel extremely well. Even the big spikes and crashes along the way have mostly stayed exactly on track. I hope some of you manged to get bitcoin when it languished at those lower levels.

At the moment what can I say? bitcoin has put scaling problems to the side for now and decided to roar on to new highs despite that. I think this is fueled by mainstream interest in the whole cryptosphere growing. Coupled with bitcoin being genuinely useful for people living in countries enduring devaluing bank/govt money and capital controls. Power to crypto. 

I am also slightly cautious about bitcoin at this exact moment though. Because there has been quite a prominent bearish divergence between the RSI and the price (although maybe that is breaking up), and because bitcion is near the top of that channel that I already spoke about. And RSI looks overbought.

If you have been on the sidelines waiting to buy bitcoin I can understand the FOMO but logically its probably profitable to wait and buy the dip. Having said that when bitcoin really goes on a huge spike it sometimes doesn't stop for breath leaving many on the sidelines wishing they had bought before. I honestly don't know what I'd do in the postion of wanting to buy for the first time, I'd maybe buy a little just in case. Its not investment advice. Personally I've taken some profits but left most my core stack of bitcoin intact.

To finish heres another view of bitcoin on log scale zoomed out further with 1 week candles.

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Crypto Market Cap

This is combined market cap of cryto, so includes Bitcoin, Etherium, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash and all the rest

Hint of bubble? Any opinions?

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Bitcoin Introspection

Bitcoin Introspection

https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2017/04/06/bitcoin-introspection/

Craig Wright Q&A

https://pastebin.com/zU6YZWXK

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Gold on a log scale, can it

Gold on a log scale, can it break up this time?

Marked possible inverse head n shoulders

zoomed out

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Gigantic multi decade log bullish cup and handle in silver

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(No subject)

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Ah well "I'll get me

Ah well

"I'll get me coat."

Good luck with the stacking turdites.

Over and out

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