Ponder that one, tune out the lies, the hype, the bullshit, tune out the "unprecedented demand" and put it into a context. There are numerous wars occurring, the war rhetoric is now being intensified with more aggression and yet silver is at a paltry 18.50. It's been over 6 years, 6 years in which there have been more bailouts, more wars, more thefts (Cyprus) and yet the realitu is most people could give a shit about silver.
The Comex is still the Comex, the Shanghai Exchange is fully up and running, premiums are still very small on silver, what's more, real, sizable capital is not moving into the metals but instead massively into cryptocurrency. Now that is my fault for being suckered by the silver sales people but is irrefutable.
Was silver a bad investment in theory? nope, but given the fact that the dollar is evidently not toast (like so many in hindsight illogically predicted) we are going to be waiting many years for there to even be a return to the $40 level. By which time of course when factoring in inflation the losses will be overwhelmingly awful.
You threw out some obvious facts and then ended with an opinion that it will be many years before silver gets back to 40. Aren't you the troll that always blamed everyone else but yourself for investing in silver? Or am I thinking of some other whiner?
Oh poor Daveyboy got suckered by the silver salespeople. Boo Hoo.
Silver would be rising by 10% a year every year on average. Which of course doesn't factor in that many people including myself will sell a considerable amount of their silver when silver gets anywhere near 30 dollars. Now, given how long it takes for silcer to recover from big drops then barring HUGE inflation then silver might well be fucked for a long time.
s for your ad hominem attack, I own 100 ounces of USE 300 plus ounces of britannia coins, 150 ounces of philharmonics and another 14kg of silver in a vault. I am just one of many who are fatigued by the spin, the lies and the bullshit.
Maybe you could give me a reputable rebuttal from the great Harvey Organ or just one of the other many honourable men. Oh wait.....didn't he say silver would be over 500 per ounce by now?.
Perhaps Brother John F Urself?
Oh wait no, he is a shark too
Trying to get into your mindset:
Why did you pick $40 over any other number value for silver? Purchase price?
What was your "timeframe" for your long term holding when you bought it and now?
Let's be even more accurate, in real terms silver is let's say 70% down from it's highs in 2011. So what you are basically saying is that you call this reality out then you are a troll. Sorry dude but I am not delusional and financially this has hurt me and it has wiped out others who have been then FORCED to sell which in turn has driven down sentiment and price.
It seems like you simply don't get that or you lack any kind of moral compass and don't care about the truth.
I picked $40 because that's 25% less than the highs and many people bought at these price levels and were whipped up into a frenzy to buy all you can. Ignore everything else, just keep buying.
Of course I take responsibility for my own actions but it doesn't mean I am not going to call out bullshitters and those that hoodwink, distort and twist language snd numbers.
Long term inflation, ex-inflationomic fluctions, constant long term FX depreciation, might be 2% per year for gold.
Hard to say for sure, but I have reasons for thinking that.
Of course it speeds up every 18/36 years quite some.
daveyboy wrote: (Non Gradus Anus Rodentum)
(Non Gradus Anus Rodentum)
"15 year(s)" ago
Silver was trading @ 5 fiat FRNs per Oz.
Today, in spite of the blatant manipulations & smash downs it is trading @ over 18.50 fiat FRNs per Oz.
Silver is Money!
Is Money an "investment"?
Is fiat Currency an "investment"?
Or is fiat Currency somehow a better "investment" than Hard Money?
Does fiat Currency buy more in the Marketplace today than it did "15 year(s)" ago ?
It sure as Hell doesn't buy more Silver than 15 years ago.
Apparently Daveyboy is having a tough time and needed some recognition herein.
Here you go Daveyboy:
Yeah, I started buying in Oct 2010, paying between $35 to $45 for ASE's in the run-up after listening to Alex Jones, Celente, Kaiser, Schiff etc. ;-/ Found "Turd" later. ;-)
After that I just kept buying 5-10 ounces +/- at a time every week or two since with "extra" money. My average cost is now just over $23/oz. If/when Silver goes up a couple more bucks, I'll be A-OK! Toss in a little semi-numismatic value, I might be even!? Plus, I've got a bigger stack than I ever imagined at the start with money I'd have just pissed away. Even at $18.50 I could cash out if I needed to and be happy.
Way back when someone posted a chart and there was some discussion showing how buying on the way down and on the way back up (if it goes up) puts you ahead of the game.
How adorable, so first you change the time period in question to fit snugly into your rebuttal and then you call me a snowflake.
A snowflake has now been redefined as HOW dare you have a problem with being Hoodwinked! How dare you have a problem with logical fallacies!
Now as to your first point....If you had read my post it was self evident that I was referring to the last 7 years (almost) and the remaining years before we have seen 15 years elapse.
In your world I am sure you still avidly lap up everything offered by the likes of Harvey Organ but I am now grounded in reality and facts. There are bull cycles and bear cycles and we are still very much in a bear market! Given that even bull cycles see years in which there are price declines. It is entirely possible that I will not even make my investment back in nominal terms by the 15th year.
Now I know you don't care and why should you? I am not asking anyone to care, I am just calling out bullshit masquerading as "analysis" and con men masquerading as "reputable".
yes goldbugs do exist.
Yes there was bad advice all over. Some of it backed up with facts and reasonable arguments.
Some of the people who gave bad advice have been accountable. Most have not.
yes there is still bad advice freely available. Or you can pay for it.
my favourite meme is Max Kaiser's Silver Army. Talk about a cause being used for promotion! Yet he sounded authentic and drew quite the following.
I literally keep Santa's mining stock despite a 90% scalping as it provides several lessons.
Do you have a favourite?
Ah Max Keiser...the great salesman
I agree with everything you have just posted, but to answer your question, it's not so much about "being wrong" it's more about the realisation that some them have these people haven't been wrong, they have in fact been knowingly conning people or just so deluded by their own sense of how things should be that they blatantly ignore reality.
To answer your question, in the past (as I don't know if he posts freely anymore) Dan Norcini has been very good, people criticise Martin Armstrong because he changes his predictions, but I would disagree and cite that he has been right on some big key issues and with others he is simply moving the timing but that will never hold weight for some. I like David Morgan because I think he gives good information even though some of his calls have been somewhat optimistic.
I can't comment on the accuracy of his calls in their entirety but occasionally I have noticed some of clive maund's postings and they too have been good calls.
Sorry for not responding sooner
Well again, I have lost, there is the opportunity cost to factor in, there is the compounding effect of inflation to factor in, there is the future potential stagnation of price to factor in, all of these things mean that capital is being tied up in something that is going nowhere.
I won't be selling any time soon because I don't want to make a significant loss but you it's obvious how desperate the sellers are when we hear yet ever more ridiculous price predictions. None of which could ever sustain due to silver's production usage.
This entrenched view that metals have been around for thousands of years is as antiquated as saying all paper currency fails. We know it does eventually and then another Fiat takes over. I bought into in retrospect so many logical fallacies (didn't use critical thinking) that I put myself in a bad place. Now thank God I am not desperate for the money. By the way I notice some of the pumpers are now jumping ship into crypto.
People decry oh crypto is fake, okay, which then exposes how fake these pumpers are.
I agree crypto started with some kind of moral high ground about being a universal medium exchange free of manipulation by governments etc. But now it has attracted the get-rich-quick gang and all they bring with. It will be a good thing until it isn’t.