KY Derby 2017

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Ruffian
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KY Derby 2017

Ok I wasn't going to do it this year for many reasons. 

However, my blood is still boiling over the  Florida derby at gulfsteam park. 

The winner Always Dreaming has sprung to the top the leader board off of the time he ran. Just a tick off of Alydars record???? No, he's nowhere near the horse Alydar was. So how did he do it?????

Well tracks are now running turf races prior to the premier events. They had hours to scrape down and dampen the surface instead of just harrowing it. Which made that sucker lightening fast. GP is NEVER fast. 

I may write more. The upcoming Arkansas derby will be a great race because all those horses need points. Especially classic empire the long time leader who was sidelined with a foot abscess and then some back issues. He's the class but he's missed 55 training days and he's a complete head case. If he doesn't do well, he will be a gelding soon.  

Otherwise, the field is crap full of stalkers and pressers. Although gunneveras race wasn't nearly as bad at it looks and he's got an incredible pedigree. He's the only true closer and he came home in 58 and change to get 3rd by only 1 1/2l. That's pretty damn good. 

Irish war cry ran a great race in the wood. What happened last out who knows but I'd draw a line thru it. He just ran a clunker. They are like people and some days just don't want to work.

mccracken was third too and that's all he needed to be. Secretariat, unbridled and many others have been dull in their last prep. He'd been off too and needed that race for a tightener. 

Doesn't matter who gets in the payouts are going to be huge!!!!!! 

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Random thoughts

Irap won the bluegrass in a deceptively slow time. But after another review he's live in the derby. He's by tizzy (tiznow) and he looked just like his sire. Tizzy took a long while to get going but once he did wowser. They walked the dog to the half where the highly regarded practical joke tried to press him. Just like tizzy he just hung in there for the win. Times don't matter here, as this was best field all year. Tapwrit is a toss. Practical joke showed he can't get 9f, he will never get 10f in the derby. J boy echo is plodder he's a toss too. 

Mccracken was blowing hard on the gallop out. He will be on fire by derby day if no more set backs. He really needed that race. He will be a huge overlay to boot. 

Also very live is Hence. He ran the best prep all year so far in the sunland. Btw Irap was 3rd in that race meaning major improvement. So far I'm leaning towards Irish war cry. But it's really waaaay too early. 

Also got my first look at Classic Empire since his layoff. He looks like a 2yr old. He is the champ but i don't see him being a factor with all his issues. He needs to hit the board to get in. Track oddsmaker is smoking crack listing him at 6/5. If he was 30/1 I could make a case for him.  They should just forget the classics and prep him for summer IMHO. Malagacy drew pp 12 in the same AK derby this weekend - toss him. He's the chalk anyway. 

Workouts are starting on Churchill surface so I reckon I'll know more soon.  I'm trying to like Girvin but I can't for reasons I can't explain. So I'll be looking closer at him. 

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Minor update

Congrats to casses for having classic empire ready to run. It's was ugly but he pulled it off. He is the best on paper. I liked the race by 2nd place horse conquest mo money much better than CE. Malagasy as I reckoned wouldn't get the distance. He is no longer undefeated. Can CE Improve in just 3 weeks? Dunno yet, he was sucking wind coming home and no gallop out. He also was on the wrong lead indicating how tired he was. I would not be surprised to see the derby set up like this did - turf formation packed together. Oh in CEs defense Julian gave him a shit ride. 

Always dreaming worked out and his trainer was making excuses for the winning time saying gulfsteam was quirky, he knows that was primed. The workout was meh, ok, nothing special. He's a toss for me anyway. 

Girvin had an ok work ... So did gunnevera.... Too soon to prime them tho. 

Btw conceit on told me irish war cry has a minor nagging foot condition. But honestly 80 percent do. Will have to see him move to tell if it's minor - update soon as possible, 

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Lol @ me

I deserved to get beat in the AK derby cuz I forgot what I was taught and swore I'd never forget. Never under estimate the heart of a champion and I sure did that with classic empire. He sure proved why he was the champ yesterday. Plus really kudos to father and son trainers the Casses. 

I still ain't picking CE to win the derby tho! 

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Small update

Hence is really growing on me. Turned in a nice workout running 23- 22 splits yesterday morning. Also patch may not get in but he's nice too. both bred  and raced by calumets very secretive Brad Kelley. Also has a very very good filly named salty for the oaks. 

Nice that hence was increasing speed over churchills deep track. Derby day as always they will have it lightening fast p. Keep in mind he's a closer so increasing speed is much more important than gate speed. Even so he hit 4f in 48' working alone. 

Saw girvin do a maintaince gallop. Something I cant put my finger on yet. Need to see a real workout.  

With no clear dominant horse I'm looking for pure value this year, 

classic empire has rightfully taken over the leader board displacing always dreaming who was one of the first I tossed despite the win, 

conquest mo money is in IF his connections pay the 200k late fee. Tough call to make. 

There is more but I'm beat.  None of the other big boys have put in a timed work yet

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Girvin

couldn't put my finger on what I didn't like about this horse. He's trained by Joe sharp better known as husband of top jockey rosie naprovnik who left on top at 24 and is his regular exercise rider. 

Hes a blue collar fella and a nice horse but after carefully reviewing his timed and non timed workouts. He just has no turn of foot and can't seem to string together 2 quick splits. A derby horse needs to be able carry speed over several furlongs. I can't find a single GPS of him moving quicker than 37 mph. He seems best on a slow cuppy track and Churchill won't be slow or cuppy. He will NOT win. 

Gunnerva also not speedy BUT once that sob locks eyes he won't quit. He likes winning and racing a lot. He's very live and things could set up for him. Definitely not a toss especially in exotics and gimmicks. PLUS he has a classic pedigree. He went cheap cuz he was 2nd or third in the ring before anyone was there. Really like him but not as much as Irish war cry and McCracken or hence. But he's live. 

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My derby live horses

Classic empire. 
1.I won't play this horse in the derby only as a backup but he's the champ..once he proved he's back there's no option for me but to make him number 1. It was very ugly but he still won last out. 
2. IWC..just has the look of a derby horse and his resemblance to his daddy who would have won the derby with a competent ride makes him the horse to beat. 
3. McCracken. I am still trying to figure out what this horse did wrong in the bluegrass..I mean it was literally the perfect prep..the only issue I have with him is how well can hernandez time his 2.5 to 3fs run.
4. Hence..I have been saying since the Sunland derby that his performance was the best on the derby trail and the results of the following races have proven me right. 
5. Looking at Lee. First appearance on the leader board but Steve Asmussen is a f.....n genius..this Todd Pletcher is how you get a horse to the derby..he slowly but surely tighten the screws on this horse and is now sitting on a keg of dynamite..I mean her fooled me and that's not easy to do. 
6. State of honor.. was going to downgrade him but then realized that if you strangle any horse for 3fs then anything you get afterwards is gravy. For fucks why casses would you put that asshole in the saddle. 
7. Girvin.. the blue collar horse..not flashy but gets the job done i just still don't know if he's fast enough though. 
 

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Part tiwo

8. Sonateer. this horse was in another state for the first 3fs of the Arkansas derby and then came with a Derby run to get 4th. by the way the Arkansas derby was the best derby prep race. 
9. Patch..This pirate he only has one eye is now Pletchers best hope providing tapwrit doesn't rebound from the bluegrass..watched his la. derby and he ran sneaky good. 
10. Gormley..My favorite horse because simply put he wants to beat you and if he locks horns with you..you're going down. 
11. Gunnevera....would have him near the very top but something might be wrong. He's another one you don't want to lock up with. 
12. Battle of midway..When a horse runs big even when he's going against his running style pay attention..I don't think he's fast enough and it looks like he's not going to enter. 

Note I have Irap off here and that's cuz Gutierrez is aboard. He will choke him back last and then take him 6 wide or more. Jockeys are a massive factor this year. 

Also the fields not set but I don't think anyone else entering has a shot..... 

Workouts have been ho hum, nothing bad, nothing great either. 

Next I'll as always I'll try to find a cheap bet ..... And post what you should play vs what I will play trying to beat the mutuels. Naturally I'll be spending a lot more than you should. 

Edit: conquest mo money opted to not pay the 200k supplement and train to the Preakness with  of supplement150k .... Less horses 

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Weee

that numbering feature works great. Wish I'd have tried to use it sooner! Yeah me!! 

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Thunder sno

Owned by godolphin is coming to the derby. 

This is the only trophy missing from their case and I reckon they have spent well over a 100 million trying to get it. 

His only dirt races have been in Dubai and he barely beat the Japanese champ epicararis on dirt. Plus he has a last second pull to the outside and nearly lost it. Having said this it's very hard for me to evaluate him as Meydan is a fairly new surface and I haven't seen enough American speed on it to evaluate it. None the less everything in goldolphin so stable is worthy. 

Not sure when to fit this fella ...... The travel, climate change, turf training and quarantine may be enough to severely compromise his chances. I really need to see his work on Churchill.  He's fast enough but he still has a lot of turf action in his movement.  Epicharis is coming to fro the Preakness . 

Btw I don't read or listen to other handicappers so it doesn't have an effect on my judgement. I call them as I see them ... 

Oh and those asking about j boys echo- he's a plodder. Meaning his top cruising speed isn't nearly fast enough for this kind of race. He will finish in bottom five - toss him, 

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Girvin

For the life of me I couldn't figure out this horse but now trainer joe sharp has admitted he has a quarter crack. He's been using z bar shoes on him. Which of course is why he can't generate any major speed. Trainers rarely admit these things so close to the derby. 

No mention of a scratch but he's been putting him in a bariatric chamber. A quarter crack can take a full year to heal depending on how severe. So that treatment is like a Hail Mary. A waste of time and money. I knew that horse had speed but recent GPS wasn't showing any and now we all know why. It's like he's running wearing work boots. 

Everyone else just galloped but classic empires rider carried a whip. That means they don't trust him. 

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Updates

battalion runner and Malagasy are both out. 

Girvin put in work wearing bar shoes. He won't work again and a four furlong work isn't the same as going full tilt for 10f wearing regular shoes. 

Thought about thunder snow and he is a very nice colt but doesn't have the foundation to run the entire 10 furlongs. Gee is he gorgeous tho. Beautiful head and top side ... 

Fields not set yet but I'm going Irish war cry, hence and state of honor in that order.  Looking at Lee is in and he will be coming strong. Classic empire you just have to bet him. He is the class of the field. Gotta figure out my tickets after the draw. 

Always dreaming is going to be the chalk as far as I can tell. You will never get any decent odds on a live pletcher horse and he isn't winning anyway. People still don't get pletcher wins title after title cuz he makes his money on the preps. He's already won his ky derby several times over. The derby is for his owners. And always dreaming won't win. 

Almost all worked Friday morning instead of today cuz of the rain. For the last time j boys echo is a plodder. There are no sprinters in here that's bad enough for the closers let alone a plodder. I'll try to post something on them but it's kinda meaningless at this point. 

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Oh gee

I hate this. Dr Hansen paid the 200k supplement for fast and accurate to get in the derby. He's sold a third to former Olympian to bode Miller. I wish he wouldn't have done that cuz I like the fella a lot. This is the hardest part for me when it gets personal. Not the selling part but throwing away 200k. It is all a result of the sale of his former champ also named Hansen being sold to Korea after entering stud.  He was only a one crop sire. he was devasted by the sale but being new at the time neglected to put first right to buy back in his contract. So now he's bought up every Hansen he could. BIG Mistake. He's pissing money away. 

Also Sonateer is in. He's a serious race horse. I hate seeing them use him up this early. He's got major speed and could be a future champion. Devastating turn of foot but not tested and very inexperienced but I like him. He needs more time IMO. Don't think he can win but he could hit the board if the race sets up right. Will be using him in some exotics. 

Patch who is a lazy worker did a great workout. He improving weekly but he's another one who would be best served saved for later. 

This is the most efffd up grade race I ever even heard of. Fields not set, jockeys aren't committed. I made a mistake a few posts above. It's Doug Oneil who put an idiot on state of honor on board not the Casses. I really like Doug so this makes things hard. 

Las I said jockeys are going to be a huge factor in the outcome. Much more they should be. 

At this point I'm wondering if I know a single thing about 3yr old colts at all. Keep in mind in a 20 horse field anything can happen. 

Btw pletcher is galloping always dreaming in draw reins. Meaning he's on fire. Last thing you want this close to the derby from a horse who will struggle not to burn out. If you can't control his speed at a gallop over 5f. What ya gonna do without them over 10f. He was a toss for me anyway from the start. Lil late Todd to teach him to rate and route run. 

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Oaks Picks ??? I got mine !!!

Who do you like in the Oaks???  I like a few alot and I got some longshots for exotics'

In the Derby I like  Hense/McCraken over Hense /McCraken/IrishWarCry over

Gunnervera/Sonnateer/LookinatLee/Irap/Gormley same for 4TH    KD

Thanks for your input !!!   Good Luck

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Doogie

the oaks - I think paradise woods is going to win big unless she bounces ..then Abel Tasman...

on big pools like the derby I bet an A, B,C ticket ... I'll wait until the draw to pick but I saw Sonateer and classic empire and Irish war cry and McCracken and they are ready and focused..... I'll have hence in all my exotics...hence will love the xtra distance as will gormley. Sonateer is the fastest of them all but no experience. If he gets position and rates he could shock us all ... Devastating speed that horse has. 

As  I said above looking at Lee will be coming strong ..... But the traffic thing could ruin it. 

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Thanks

I love Abel Tasman. spent plenty of time looking at all the back races. This girl is a monster.paradise Woods  not gonna have it so easy up front I think she folds.Abel should relish the extra distance. Like Salty /Miss sky warrior & Tequilitia as a bomb long shot in the super & tris      Thanks for your input & knowledge.  KD

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Finally the PP drawn

And it hasn't effected my opinion. My top horse are still Irish war cry, hence, state of honor and classic empire. Although CE hasn't improved his form over his 2 yr old season. That's how much better he was than the rest that he is still competitive with the them. 

The post position draw really hurt looking at Lee who has no gate speed. He's getting hurled back and so is thunder snow from the two. Patch in 20 is bad cuz it's his left eye he is blind in so he won't be able to see the field for a spell. 

So it looks like Ima have a D ticket this cuz I'm not getting burned by CE again. Now I just have to figure out the exotics - that won't be easy. Most of these horses are so inexperienced. 

Whos the best mudder? Look IWC daddy, curlin.  I think 2007 he looked like he had no eyes coming home in the slop. All the speed drew right inside him so he isn't getting shuffled back like curlin did. Great draw for him. 

Also I make my final selections in the post parade. Look for one who's rank, on his toes , not adjusting to crowd. Hence always sweats on his neck so ignore that. Seattle slew used to do a war dance going on the track. None of these are close to him. Take that as a bad sign. My BIG issue with state of honor is lezcanno up. Makes me wanna puke. 

Classic empire and Sonateer have devastating closing speed but Sonateer has only 3 races and is a maiden in the derby  lol???? Looking at Lee has to get running room to accommodate his extension. The one hole is disasterious  .... For any horse. Only good thing is Churchills top rider is on him. 

That opens things up for other closers like  gormley, gunnervera etc. I wish sharp would scratch Girvin. 

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Doogie

note the barn change and the clunker she threw last time out right after. Baffert isn't know for his patience with fillies. 

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Just curios why u don't like

Just curios why u don't like McCracken???

Also do u find any mudders for the Oaks  ???    Thx in advance 

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Doogie

I do like McCracken plus he's an improving horse and has worked very well the past two weeks. He has a 2.5-3f sustained run and I've never seen Brian Hernandez time it properly. That along with his sub par last furlong times and the speed outside him at Churchill doesnt bode well for him. I can't pick them all. I just don't see the race setting up for him. Hence has similar issues but his style and talent can overcome lezcanno, I hope. He could hit the board but I doubt that too. Horses like gormley won't quit even when beat. 

The oaks is more wide open than the derby. Farrel is ur mudder, miss sky warrior loves Churchill and is somewhat battle tested and salty should be given a look at. Love, just love her breeding. Keep in mind the chalk has only three races under her!!!! 

Secretariat is in a class by himself but watch the first 1/4 mile of Seattle Gslews derby. He misses the break and spots the field 5l.  It's what I look for in a derby horse. It's the best 1/4 I've ever seen run by any horse. 

If you want watch the first 35 secs and last 35 secs.... It's in slow mo 

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Update

Gunnevera after a 20l slower work day before refused to work at all. One slow work no big deal but followed by a refusal.  That says complete toss to me, then again he may wake up on Saturday and feel good. 

Then again he's so damned talented I'll watch him gallop next two days before tossing him. 

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