there's no way i can get a chart to attach. i know it's possible but can't figure it out.
take the dates above, do a longterm chart, insert nugt dust jnug jdst gdx gdxj gld slv...the results are striking. but i can't judge decay costs. bottom line is the x3s take a HUGE hit at any announcement from direxion re splits either reverse or forward
i see no evidence that says buying or holding a x3 near split announcements pays off. none.
but that chart also shows a screaming argument against holding these funds...the loss percentage against gdx/slv/gld/gdxj is in the 95%+ range over time, starting comparison 1/2013.
I have often wanted to find the reverse direction of the fund and purchase atm puts.
Instance, if the miners are moving up, buy a put on dust atm or barely itm and ride it. I have never spent any time researching, but it would have to make some fiat. Wouldn't be that thrill of swiping, but better than whack a mole.
boomer a put is the way to play the forward/reverse split action...even if you are wrong on gold's action it seems it would be a good trade
Premarket Trading Report 530am cst:
UST 10 yr %: 2.304
per scottrade ticker
NUGT: 31.21/32.59 (closed at 8.15 4/28/17 = 32.60, scottrade chart shows 32.68)
JNUG: 17.26/17.40 (closed at 4.50 4/28/17 = 18.00, scottrade chart shows 18.08)
DUST: 33.48/33.50 (closed at 32.25 4/28/17, no changes in share count, scottrade chart shows 32.25)
JDST: 83.00/85.66 (closed at 19.93 4/28/17 = 79.72, scottrade chart shows 79.60)
The above recalculations are based on close price...assuming my math is right lol. Not sure why there is a difference...
If gold/miners do continue on a downleg, NUGT/JNUG are going to be merciless tickers to hold.
Right now I have a 1/3d position in MUX. I'm just watching the action to decide what if anything I'm going to move on today. I may just put in a stink on MUX and see what happens.
I'm shocked at the low vol. As of 557am:
DUST: 8878 shares
NUGT: 2621 shares
JNUG: 5693 shares
JDST: 774 shares
GDX: 4203 shares
GDXJ: 100 shares
Where'd everyone go?
Tony, great call on the NUGT/JNUG split action- death on a popsicle stick. So glad I'm on the sidelines, this is ugly and Dr. Jerome posted on main that his broker has frozen trading for those at this time, he is not allowed to sell for some reason... oy.
Boomer, I don't know who you trade with but I've tried simply shorting both NUGT and JNUG and two different brokers will not accept that action, since it's free money with the regular bleed, and they would have to take the other side of that trade. I've heard the same thing about others brokers, so I'm not sure that retail investors are allowed to short them- you have to go long either DUST or JDST and accept the bleed from those instruments, to my knowledge. If you find differently, let us know who you use.
in MUX at 2.92 for the rest of the position....will ride it out for a bit, watching close, mental stop at 2.80, LSO at 3.35....looking for a USD/JPY fade and silver/gold bounce...don't think it comes, but 111high looks to be the end of the run for uSD/JPY...he says as the uh oh voice starts
glad to not be trapped in one of the x3. I didn't know they would freeze out traders like that....i use scottrade too, which is who Mustang and Dr are having trouble with.
the charts i was looking at this weekend scream to stay away after a split in either direction...
hope TF fixes the attach chart feature (makes it easier) on the new site he's having built...have never been able to attach, but i'm computer stupid. Feel better tho cuz my wife who is a gadget/computer queen couldn't figure it out either.
Jnug apparently freed for trading noon eastern, at a split-adjusted 3.95/share... that's gonna leave a mark. Man, I hate those bastards at Direxion and VanEck. The fiat price manipulations and naked short dumps are bad enough, but stuff like this is borderline criminal.
It doesn't help that PMs taking a butt kicking. Bad time to be frozen out. I don't understand why they would not have made the adjustment outside of trading hours and been ready to go for opening bell this am. It's all database stuff and you do not need the market open for that.
Thought I posted this earlier.
Bought a small tranche of the x2 silver bull. This isn't a day trade. Will hold for 3-4 months if needed although I don't think I will need to. Going away for a few weeks and don't want to miss this.
Happy: what x2 funds do you use? good vol?
Been thinking bout sumptin...Euro and the Yen.
Euro strength the past few weeks, Yen weak, USD weak. Yet USD/JPY continues to hit 112, or try to.
Rotation out of Yen into Euro?
Bigly yuge vote on 5/7 in France....Frexit you might ask? mmmmmhmmmmm, um yeah..........don't count on it.
Watch for a bigly yuge spike in the Euro coming.
USD same ish maybe a little lower. Yen down big, as the rotation to the Euro happens. Euro up big.
USD/Yen up, marketeers happy. Both POTUS and Yellen get what they want, and the Euro kings/queens get to keep what they want.
Win/Win...for them. Meanwhile gold gets monkeyhammered again.
I'm seeing a DUST play setting up.
I won't touch JDST (yet) due to the split.
This might get really really ugly for pm/miners.
...but headlines are dangerous he says to himself...stick to the charts.
tonym9 wrote: Happy: what x2 funds do you use? good vol?
Tony I use HZU/HZD as the silver bull and bear respectively. They trade on the Toronto exchange. Volume is decent, never have a problem buying or selling. Reminds me that back in my heyday I could be 10% of the day's trades but remember we were churning like mad then.
Volume on the gold bull/bear was not high enough for my liking after the crash and I haven't traded that in ages.
I've compared notes with the traders who use AGQ which is one of the US based x2 and their price deterioration over time is far, far worse than mine. I don't know why since both sides of the border the funds use similar language. I do know that volatility is the enemy.
The funds do from time to time reverse split, typically with a 2:1 or 3:1. I suspect HZD is due for that any time especially with today's beat down. I don't own any though :)
Thanks for the info Happy, i'll do some research on them...the part about yours not decaying as much peeks my interest.
In MUX for the overnight and beyond??? Considered selling it, but just as well to hold it...i'm still looking for a relief rally - USD/JPY fade and may not get it. Going out at 2.96 puts me back at a little better than even on the 3.04 original third.
Might sell the MUX tomorrow tho in prep for a DUST position. I'm still thinkin on that. If the relief rally doesn't come by tomorrow close I'll prolly sell and do the flip Wed morn.
JDST goes out at 86.09, down from the daily hi of 89.78, daily low was 80.00....pretty damn impressive for a post split X3 miner fund day of split...too bad the monkeyhammering helped it run.
JNUG goes out at 16.61, down from daily hi of 18.00, daily low was 15.82....open was 18.00 iirc...split's effect TBD since gold/silver were monkeyhammered today
NUGT goes out at 30.19, down from daily hi of 32.69, daily low was 29.50...open was 32.60 iirc
DUST no split goes out at 34.75, daily hi was 35.50, daily low was 32.39....open was 32.25
....according to posts in other places from Billhilly and Dr J, the lockout of trading the x3 split tickers today was substantial. As Pining commented, it's a BS move. Billhilly was freed but Dr J is still in limbo the last time I read the comments section...something about retirement account questions vs regular trading account. Either way, NOT COOL DIREXION/SCOTTRADE.
With the lockout, no direction of trading action should be judged based on today's performance of the split x3s.
I will be watching the split results closely from the cheap seats unless I get a quicker feel for mo/direction of the splits...DUST till then IF i go x3.
JDST could turn into a monster here if gold/silver do indeed test lower trend lines, especially combining that with GDXJ's rebalance. But i'll give up some to watch it out...I agree with Pining's view of a cautionary approach....that's why Im' in MUX for the time being vs blindly running into a JDST position.
GLTA, stay on your toes...it could go either way here and there are a bunch of data inputs that exclude the headlines.
headline diversion...just turned on DVR'd news show....starts with NoK coverage that nuke test is imminent....geez
Premarket Trading Report, 700am cst
gold: 1257.09, low is 1255.17 hi is 1259.07
USD/JpY: 112.24 (ouch...)
UST 10 yr %: 2.334 (ouch)
per scottrade ticker:
havent seen much from him on pm/miners, good to see this
The current structure presented in the GDX suggests that we are now approaching a low-risk long term entry for investors in the mining complex. As long as the GDX remains over 20.30, we have a strong bullish set up in place that can set up a strong rally into the summer.
Alternatively, should we see a break of 18.58 (the December 2016 low), that would place our long term bullish perspective in serious jeopardy
sold the MUX at 2.96...want to be able to trade tomorrow...too much going on to be locked in any position right now
The period for data gathering is short. There is much on the calendar this week. Therefore, it's decision time with the data avail which is basically today's trading:
NUGT: closed 8.15 4/28/17 = 32.60, scottrade chart showed 32.68....today it went out at 30.51 or 7.62
JNUG: closed 4.50 4/28/17 = 18.00, scottrade chart showed 18.03.....today it went out at 16.43 or 4.10
JDST: closed 19.93 4/28/17 = 79.72, scottrade chart showed 79.60....today it went out at 87.21 or 21.80....up from 15land at the time of the Direxion/GDXJ issue coming to light
DUST: closed 32.25 4/28/17, no share changes.....today it went out at 34.44
Gold was 1264, as of this typing it's 1257.45
So far, it looks like the funds are acting as they should. I'm not seeing anomalies.
I'm of 2 minds on this deal...JDST due to the rebalance and the calendar.....NUGT due to the clear sentiment as seen here and elsewhere, geo political
A third mind also...do nothing.
It may be stink bid only play...depends on how I see things tomorrow morn after overnight action...also I have to be at work early.
Trying to apply logic to data and then to market move...difficult at best
pending overnight action...
Lots of angst on mainstream. This usually is a turning point. Gary Savage is predicting a move up then a smash to wash everyone out. He is calling for a low below the previous move. I'm thinking he is right.
Which previous low are you referring to exactly? I agree I believe that a lower low is coming before the tide really turns.
According to Bloomberg data, investors pulled $778 million from the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) – the world's largest gold-stock exchange-traded fund ("ETF") – in the week ending April 28. This is the largest weekly outflow on record.
I think this is a telling sign that we are reaching a close bottom. Will be looking for bottom or a confirmation of a bottom next week after the goon squad talks this week and the french election is over this weeekend.
Premarket Trading Report, 530am cst:
10 yr UST: 2.295
Flat right now. May submit stinks, but not sure. Content to just watch at this point.
EDIT: Early premarket trading vol has died...even if you mulitply x4 it is no where close to where it was before the splits. This IS an anomaly.