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x3rs of the pm

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Thu, Apr 27, 2017 - 2:15pm
tonym9
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Happy: Congrats! When you

Happy: Congrats! When you call your number and get it, ring the register. Well done.

Good advice about PTC re-read...there is a ton of good info in those pages.

I blew up my first account. All told about 3-4 years, easily half of that was lamenting and testing myself after the blowup chasing JAG the streetwalker.

I'm still trying to sprinkle sugar on my sweet spot, but am much better at it than the rookie who started at PTC.

Now I'm always looking for the fail in even successful trades, cuz there is always something to learn....that's the difference.

As far as my 9.21 NUGT position...not good. Currently at 7.77 per. The only thing that might save it is Tillerson's meet tomorrow, but given the way the 100 S/POTUS meet went, doubtful. But I still think there is some there there.

At 8.25 this morning I thought it might move back my way. Wrong. I'm wrong footed and will amputate to the ankle tomorrow, maybe even tonight. 

Everytime I get headlines in my head, instead of charts and mo, I get my head handed to me. Everytime.

It just kills me that I saw 1245 before 1305 a weekish back...damn that Direxion announcement...that's where I started to get off track and it snowballed on me.

Is what it is...am sharpening the surgical instruments looking for an exit.

That personal resistance level I mentioned in my writings a few posts back is strong...gotta breakout.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 27, 2017 - 8:22pm
tonym9
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Chart review of the USD/JPY

Chart review of the USD/JPY on the hourly...a large red candle fail at 111.75, falls to 110.82, bounces to 111.59, another large red candle fail to 111.06....now sitting at 111.20 and looks like it's short on upward mo....netdania charting. 

I don't like the USD/JPY chart, looks set for a fall here. 

Gold looks like it is trying to hold 1260low...what was formally resistance now building support? TBD, but I'm leaning yes.

10 yr UST: 2.298...again looks set for falling here

I'm holding NUGT overnight...again. 

as of 650pm b/a

NUGT: 7.71/7.72

JNUG: 4.30/4.31

Really searching my thought process for stubborn positioning...not seeing it.

Not panic based either...but do hate being down 1.50 on a trade...that sucks. 

Greed...no. Don't even have an LSO set.

The charting says NUGT is due for a relief bounce here. Simple as that. Do I get it? Maybe, maybe not. Gold has to hold 1260low to get a bounce. We shall see. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 27, 2017 - 9:28pm
tonym9
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(No subject)

04/26/17 - Gold GDX Silver Elliott Wave Market Analysis
Ira Epstein's Metals Video 4 27 2017
"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 7:22am
tonym9
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Premarket Trading Report 615

Premarket Trading Report 615 am cst:

investing.com:

GOLD: 1268,88

SILVER: 17.44

USD: 98.68

USD/JPY: 111.41

10 yr UST: 2.305

per scottrade:

NUGT 7.93/7.96

GDX: 22.00/22.03

DUST: 33.33/33.43

JNUG: 4.49/4.50

GDXJ: 32.09/32.18

GLD: 120.53/120.69

SLV: 16.44/16.48

HUI: 187.7673

------------

USD/JPY 111.52 high but still just below the last fail...looking for a rollover here...is at 111.38 on netdania

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 9:05am
tonym9
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.7 GDP fires USD/JPY up to

.7 GDP fires USD/JPY up to 111.70, currently back to 111.63 (edit: 111.58, heading the right direcction)

blew past the 2 successive lower highs on the 1 hour chart...currently waiting for the headline news to wash out, then see where it's going. 111.77 is the break point on the first high

IF it settles down soon and goes below the third lowest successive high, good for me but I'm not holding my breath 

Extricating myself from the 9.21 NUGT looks like its gonna hurt...then again sawing off an ankle usually does...

NUGT is at 7.89/7.90 and looks to be coming back to the premarket highs...maybe GDX will indeed see a bit of a bounce here??? Um...yeah...sure...unicorns and skittles baby....EDIT: 7.85/7.87 at 805cst

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 11:12am
tonym9
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Effective Monday 5/1

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 12:01pm
tonym9
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question for the x3

question for the x3 traders

what do you guys feel the result of these splits will be?

the last one hurt me 

gunshy

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 12:40pm
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Scares me, to be honest

We all know why they are doing it- to give themselves plenty of room to the downside, so they have enough pricing slack to account for the continuing daily leakage. NUGT will be 32 bucks a share on monday, so what does Direxion think is more likely over the next year- a four bagger taking it to 132 a share? Or losing half its value and going to 16? Oy... 

I will say this- I have heard chatter at trading forums saying that some think when that split is behind us, the 3x will get a bump, because this split has been hanging over them, keeping people on the sidelines and that money will flow back in next week. It's possible, especially if the PM charts cooperate. 

Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 1:16pm
tonym9
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exited 9.21 NUGT at 8.31 for

exited 9.21 NUGT at 8.31 for a .90 loss...being disciplined and not panicking allowed me to not bail at 7.73 which is where I thought seriously about cutting the loss. the USD/JPY chart review is what convinced me to stay longer. 

in MUX at 3.04 for a 1/3d position hold over the weekend and most likely through next weekend at a minimum. 

i'll get back into x3 if it proves itself worthy after the reverse split, guessing 10 ish days. 

will most likely buy some GDX on monday once DTBP is freed up

i see a move up from here and want to catch it. capital preservation and trading prudence dictates a no touch on the x3s atm. 

good luck all. going radio silent for a bit. please keep the thoughts/posts coming. 

GO MUX!

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 1:24pm
tonym9
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just a comment on the traders

just a comment on the traders thinking a NUGT bump is coming after the split....i thought that money was sitting on the sidelines the last time it reversed split too.

not gonna get me a second time

NUGT and JNUG could run here. i do think gold has found a bottom in 1260lows. up from here looks better than it did 2 days ago, that's for sure

holding a x3 after a reverse split...nope, that's for the more aggressive traders. i'll happily hide in MUX and some GDX come monday, even if it loses a bit. Hate buying MUX after a 3.5% bump, but that is better than losing double digits after NUGT reverses. 

ok, going silent now. good luck guys

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 1:37pm
HappyNow
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My experience based on x2 is

My experience based on x2 is that they will be lower, not higher after they resettle following the reverse split. In other words you will lose by holding assuming the underlying commodity doesn't change.

Edit - just saw Tony's post above. Good to have a second real life experience that matches mine.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 1:38pm
tonym9
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Pining you and I seem to be

Pining you and I seem to be on the same thought train...

I've been looking for an alternative to the x3 to 'hide' in while the effect hits the x3's. I'm figuring it will need a week or two for the move to work out. I was long on the last split (don't remember if JNUG or NUGT) but it did not go well. Don't want to get into that same position. I will exit the NUGT today, no matter what. 

I thought about rolling into GDX, but the DTBP limitations make that not worthwhile. 

Looks like I will hide out in MUX. I like the financials. Decent vol. I like the skew to silver with it getting beat up so badly, and also gives some gold exposure. I like the low share price since DTBP will limit my move today and that is a large consideration atm. Monday I'll be free and will prolly buy more, but want the exposure over the weekend. Comfortable holding a non-x3 symbol on the weekend...even if it is a miner. 

!!!! As I type you get your 8.35 NUGT....another good call Pining. Ring the register!

I'm getting pretty close to selling and making the move. Don't want to get caught in a NUGT downdraft end of day if an exodus does start. 

Watching the 10 yr UST for clues...but won't push it...getting very close to exiting. Take a look at the 5 minute mountain style chart for today in 10 yr UST %, looks like a text book H/S pattern....seeing if I can eek out another dime or so in NUGT before the exit

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 2:03pm
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Tony, Happy

Thanks to both of you for sharing your experiences, and letting us know that each of you had the same experience, that the instrument didn't do well holding it's value through a split- convinced me to book NUGT profits and sell prior to the close, and just not risk it. Very much appreciated, gentlemen, I'll be able to relax this weekend. Wish I could buy you fellas a cold one in gratitude! 

Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 3:18pm
tonym9
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That's what this place is

That's what this place is for....we need to help each other out if we are going to enter the Coliseum and fight Mr Market. AND help out the rookies who are drawn to these x3's like moths to a flame. Glad you can enjoy your weekend!

As the 5 min 10 yr UST chart predicted via the H/S, it has fallen. Doesn't always happen that way.... But it is down almost 2 full points since the post above about it. 2.286 as I type. Gold up. 

per investing.com 215pm cst

GOLD: 1269.22...daily hi is 1269.76

SILVER: 17.27...daily hi is 17.46

GDX: 22.33...daily hi is 22.43

NUGT: 8.25...daily hi is 8.35

JNUG: 4.69....daily hi is 4.79

MUX: 3.04...daily hi is 3.07

tracking the decay in the x3 funds after the split will be critical. trying to figure out how much decay, if it comes, will be tough but very necessary to give a decent range of re-entry...along with what was gold doing at the time. I plan to go back and research it. NUGT 179 is coming to mind as my entry, but I can remember for sure...I do remember I got my ass handed to me...so this is on the to do list. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 5:32pm
tonym9
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CNBC reporting just now on

CNBC reporting just now on Fast Money that largest South Korean news outlet is reporting NoK just tested a ballistic missile. 

Damn it. 

EDIT: CNBC now says the S Korean news agency that reported the ballistic missile test by NoK just offshore now says it was a failure...that doesn't change the calculus on the issue. That's continued escalation. This isn't going to end well. 

China? Where ya at Mr Xi? 

Got Gold? 

There are 10 million+ people in Soeul alone...NoK will unload on that population center if a move against him is made. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 7:39pm
tonym9
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Here comes the blow shit up

Here comes the blow shit up language...posted on cnn at 6pm cst...somewhere McCain and Graham are powdering noses for the interviews...damn it. 

https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/28/politics/north-korea-un-meeting/index.html

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called on the world community Friday to drastically increase pressure on North Korea, warning that failure to do so could be "catastrophic" and that the US is prepared to take military action against the rogue regime if necessary.

Shortly after Tillerson finished his final activity at the UN, meeting with Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Pyongyang launched a missile toward the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, but it blew up over land, according to a US official."

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 28, 2017 - 7:51pm
HappyNow
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Pining enjoy the weekend.

Pining enjoy the weekend. You've contributed much and if we did meet we could swap rounds for sure. 

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Sun, Apr 30, 2017 - 9:30am
tonym9
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(No subject)

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 4 28 2017
Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD, Gold & Silver as of 29th April 2017
"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Apr 30, 2017 - 2:29pm
tonym9
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Direxion x3 split

Direxion x3 split data 

(sourced from splithistory.com....never used them before, assuming data is correct)

NUGT: 

04/02/2013 1 for 5

08/20/2013 1 for 10

10/01/2015 1 for 10

08/25/2016 5 for 1 (this is the reverse split I was remembering from last year that went badly)

JNUG: 

12/23/2014 1 for 10

10/01/2015 1 for 5

08/25/2016 10 for 1

DUST: 

08/20/2013 2 for 10

5/18/2016 1 for 10

08/25/2016 1 for 5

JDST: 

10/01/2015 1 for 40

9/10/2015 1 for 10

5/18/2016 1 for 10

08/25/2016 1 for 5

...work in progress

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Apr 30, 2017 - 4:28pm
tonym9
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correction

edit: August 2015 was a forward split not a reverse...it was announced 7/26/16 and took effect 8/25

---- 

so far data that I've gathered indicates that a split in any direction on any of the x3 funds is resulting in a decrease in value...still researching

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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