sold the 9.39 NUGT at 9.58....LBO set at 9.35 for re-entry. Not sure I'm gonna get it. USD/JPY falling back at 109.90 as I type. Will be interesting to watch the 1045-1200 cst charts for the turn
On friday, I had one of my therapists came by the office and I didn't set a limit order at 3:00 to get out by end of day. All weekend the fear factor was I would either hit it out of the park or take it in the shorts. Almost sold this morning at 9.30 to stop the bleeding when it looked like gold was continuing down.
Still holding and recovered somewhat. Losses wont be nearly as bad as I originally thought. Now trying to figure hold long to hold. Looks like NUGT holding strong in the 9.50 - 9.60 range. Wouldnt be nearly as bad to exit there with a 9.81 entry point. Should have gotten out Friday. Another lesson learned.
Back in NUGT at 9.52...as soon as the LBO processed NUGT dived to low-mid 9.40s...comical it all is...back up to 9.52
Doesn't look like the 1130-noonish cst turn is going to happen today...so I'm playing for continued recovery in gold and USD/JPY continuing to drift down...will I get it? Dunno, watching as best as I can tho while at work.
Just trying to ride the waves. I'm not married to a direction.
I will often hold through the close, especially on a down day when I"m wrong footed. It seems the aftermarket will provide a small increase in bid for long directionals. Not sure why. The only downside to aftermarket is limited vol and the potential of multiple transactions for one LSO. But I have had it run the other way on me after 5pm cst.
...as always, your mileage may vary...
I've been thinking about Ronnie's triangle/months long consolidation....that could provide some awesome range trading. I have to get past looking for the wave 3 of 3 of 3...
Mustang: the only thing we can do is continually learn. These x3 funds are like trying to get a sip of water out of a fire hydrant though. Honestly I don't recommend them as learning instruments....however...............
I used PTC, and now here, as a trading diary of sorts with the x3 funds. About every 2-3 weeks I would go back and read my posts/trades/thoughts on direction. I have learned that I am a trading schizophrenic...of course not in the clinical sense of the word, but my reading taught me one very very big thing....DO NOT GET MARRIED TO A POSITION OR DIRECTION.
Direction changes and positions are temporary.
Cutting losses can be tough, but more often than not when I have cut I have avoided worse. When I have been involved in a stubborn hold, it usually involved deep double digit losses.
As long as you keep the bleeding to a small cut vs an amputation, you can usually make it back up pretty quick.
I would encourage you to post the thoughts behind your trade when you put it on. Then the result when you process your LSO, along with why it went wrong/right in your view. That way, with hindsight a few weeks later, you can do an emotional free review of your process. I have learned more from the re-reads than I can summarize. Learning your own behaviors and tendencies can reveal your weaknesses. Mr Market already knows them and he will without a doubt take advantage of you at every opportunity. Beat him to the punch by knowing yourself and your style.
This is how I learned that I need to trade the premarket...that's where I set myself up for the best days. It is also where I learned Mondays are pretty good for me, Thursday isn't, Friday is babysit day, Tuesday is clean up day, Wednesday I should just take the day off but don't lol.
You will also learn that what goes on within these pages and your trading rationale, has application elsewhere. It's like a spotlight for personal behavioral analysis.
Good luck and I wish you well on the journey, even though I don't recommend you do it with pm x3 funds....
well that went south in a hurry...figured i was good into the close, had a patient, couldn't follow...now NUGT down to 9.26. pretty much wipes out any gains for today, at -.06 per share on the day...will await aftermarket to move up a little and will sell it off for my hit. ugh.
flickering thought of holding but 99% sure that won't happen
EDIT...just quickly scanned the site...shit, NoK may be taking a turn/POTUS has Wed meet with all 100 S's after just meeting with UN Sec C...I may just hold. I'm not off till 6 so I'll have limited time to review...will be a gametime decision...holding just might be the way I go tho...
Really did not want to sell my NUGT...I mean really didn't but, preservation of capital is rule number one. Sold at 9.33, ugh
net on the day is a whopping $7 increase in the account....convinced tomorrow morning I'm gonna find NUGT up
Premarket Trading Report, 510am cst 4/25
UST 10 yr: 2.30
NUGT: 9.17/9.23 (Im in at 9.21, probably too early)
JNUG breaks 5...
Not liking the way this is looking.
Should have listened to myself this morning...didn't like the way it was all looking. I let headlines get in my head and that dictated NUGT. The headline issues are still valid, so I'm staying with it and will hold overnight.
Being trapped sucks. But what really sucks is I saw it coming a few days back and didn't execute...again. Somewhere around 1245 is where it should stop.
UST 10 yr: 2.332
NUGT goes out at 8.14 on the aftermarket. I'm in at 9.21, down 1.07 per share....yeah, that sucks. Some of you are in much deeper and I feel for you.
My intention is to hold until the end of the week. Pending Friday's bomb and bullet show with Tillerson.
I'm feeling very at ease with the overnight hold. Strange.
Good luck all...i'll prolly go radio silent here for a bit while this percolates through. At least I'll get to sleep in a little tomorrow before working the real gig at 7am so that means no Premarket Trading Report. If any of you are awake, feel free.
Playing the longer JDST swing trade I posted on the 18th here. Added DUST to it this AM seeing this action, esp with the silver contract still hanging until Thurs and coming after record high OI, seems like ideal setup for more pressure to the downside to me. Those high open interest peaks are trading tells when price turns down. Plus I'm looking at GDX and not seeing a real good turn until somewhere in the 20's, which would be another 8-10% possibly. So that would be DUST in the 41 area, JDST maybe more vigorous. Maybe 27-28? Who knows. I'll keep raising stops on the way.
Nice moves ! I wish I had been bold enough to follow that great advice you gave over a week ago. I was still looking for the break of 1300 and then a move back down quickly so I held onto the JNUG. I am SO deep underwater now that light doesn't even reach me anymore. I've really got no choice but to hang tough now.
The easiest thing in the world to do is BUY stocks;
The hardest thing in the world to do is SELL stocks.
I'm really not a very good trader.
Best O' Luck everyone !
I've mostly been on the sidelines. A little short using 2x etf when silver was over 18.20. Target to sell when silver 17.25ish.
The 2X etfs in Canada don't decay like the ones in the US. No idea why that is and they are still not good holding types but 3-6 months isn't a killer.
Having a position turn sour on you is not fun, we've all been there. and no matter how many times before I would say I was going to honour my stops and control risk somehow the drops would happen in ways that I would slough them off because "reasons" and pretty fast it was fugly.
Way back about 4 years ago when TF invited me to be a permanent guest poster, my very first article included a concept I'd learned researching trading called loss aversion. Knowing that we are hard wired this way made me better. Quote from my article is below:
Loss Aversion is the finding that people tend to be risk-averse for gains but simultaneously to be risk-acceptant for losses. To put it simply, gaining ten dollars gratifies us far less than losing ten dollars will upset us. Additionally, people will risk far more in order not to lose ten dollars than we would to possibly gain ten dollars. Rationally, it seems nuts, right? But it is thoroughly well research and has been proven true in experiment after experiment.
What this means is that, when it comes to assessing risk in relation to potential gains, people tend to be fairly conservative and will generally take on only those risks that are commensurate, and make sense in light of, the potential gains. But what is strange, and in the context of this discussion is actually quite frightening, is that people will engage in FAR riskier behavior in service of the goal of avoiding losses, often to a degree that seems to make no rational sense.
Let’s talk about some examples. It is a well-known that the final race at any race track will be see the heaviest betting of the entire day. This is not because people suddenly have an insight into the field, it is because by that point most people betting at the track that day have incurred substantial losses, and rather than simply accept their losses and go home, they are willing to bet an inordinately heavy amount on the final race in hopes of avoiding the finality of having to book their losses by going home. They are willing to wager (risk) more than they normally would to avoid losses, even if this rationally makes no sense at all! Traders, at least beginning traders, often make the exact same mistake in the markets- rather than book losses and get out of a losing trade, they irrationally hold a deteriorating position (because if you don’t sell, the losses aren’t made “real”) or they even double down on what has been a poorly performing investment, making a riskier bet in the hopes of a big comeback to avoid their losses.
At this very moment the market doesn't care what red number shows behind the minus sign next to NUGT. It's going where it will go. If your analysis shows that's up, long is the path. If it shows down, flip and go short. And if you don't know, then get out until you do.
Im looking to add more DUST on a small bounce at some point this morning, hope to take it to the above targets but we will see.
Closed my shorts on that spike in the metals off the lows- miners were lagging it and still low, so I decided not to get too greedy and booked profits. Out of DUST @30.75, out of JDST at 21.45.
Will wait until I see if we work off this oversold condition, then see if it looks like miners want to rise, or roll over. If it rises then rolls over at overhead resistance (GDX 22.2, and bigger resist. at 22,60) & turns down over the coming days, I will reinitiate these shorts. Otherwise, will just wait in cash for a while. If I left $ on the table, then so be it. Knowing when to let my winners run, and when to book profits, is something I'm terrible at.
Pining one hell of a play Bud. Well done. Leaving some on the table/getting out now isn't a bad decision IMO. Book it and go.
I always have the thought that 'the boys' move pm down in anticipation of moves up...
That meeting at the White House with 100 S's is very very high headline risk. I'm obviously playing to the gold moves up side of the trade being in NUGT since yesterday morning. IMO once headlines start to leak about how NoK will be dealt with (or can't), McCain and Graham get interviews, the tv stations start in with words of MOAB, NUKE, TOMAHAWK....gold recovers and the miners with them...in a hurry. Tillerson's meet on Friday is the icing on this very very ugly cake. Brace for very strong language to 'persuade' China to do something and now...the next 48 hours of talking will be critical to get China to do something.
This might even trigger the index corrections we have been looking for which adds another level of fuel to gold. Futures will be interesting to watch starting tonight.
I don't have a far out LSO set...no idea just how high or not that this may go. 1245 before 1305 might indeed be voided now.
1261.45 due to timing of the events may indeed be the low on this correction set up.
I hope NoK can be dealt with. I am highly skeptical. But them having an advancing nuke program is just one step down from Iran having one. Just can not be allowed. Just can't...NoK just keeps turning up the heat. I hate to admit it to myself but I see no other options. The can has been kicked as far as it can go. China has to save the situation and avoid catastrophe.
My Grandfather served in both WWII and Korea. I served during Desert Storm. My eldest son served in Iraq 2 of his 4 year enlistment, returning home 2 years ago. My family knows the military way. I don't want to see this blow up due to my fears that this will be very costly in both blood and treasure....very. God help us.
Greatly appreciated, and I'm glad to see you NUGT guys get some back. BRW, Typo in that post, the DUST was 33.75 obviously, but I dodged a bullet there. Both JDST and DUST took a dump right after. Maybe I was due for some blind luck, 'cause that's all it was. I totally agree with you, that big OI, esp in silver, might have been negated with this move, the big boys move it down to cover sometimes, to stay ahead of the headlines and it sure seems the war drums are beating. If so, it's time to go long. I always seem to get hurt playing the headlines and not the charts though- nails me every time. Think I'll see what it looks like in the AM, if it's a real turn and genuinely big move coming, I've not missed much of it. Have to see what the chart says- north of 1280 for gold or 22.20 gdx, then maybe this is an actual direction.
NUGT hi 8.38 and currently 8.26 in aftermarket.....gold 1269.71....not seein nothin online re Potus/100. USD/JPY 111.21, USD 98.69, 10 yr UST 2.304
waiting for new re the meet....future watch and asia reactions will be interesting...assuming they say anything
Got my target. Out.
May go to the bull ETF but heading on an extended holiday so it depends on how low she goes because I don't want to spend a lot of time checking the news or prices.
Pining your comments on how we've all been there hanging on to a bad trade, and the psychology are right on.
billhilly, sigh, yep, been there, done that. Several times.
I don't have what it takes to daytrade. I get exhausted or lose focus or something and make one or more of the typical trading errors. Then promise myself to try twice as hard which doesn't actually turn in to anything.
I think I have too much patience and it works against me.
I've tried to go with my strength and it seems patience is good for swing trading. My trades typically take place over 3 months but I will sell inside of a week if I get a good pop. And I can sit with cash in the account for weeks if needed.
Tony I think you've found your sweet spot too. What did that take, 3-4 years? Maybe it's Gladwell's 10,000 hours.
billhilly, recommend you go read random sections of Pailin's Trading Corner and look for yourself in there. By that I mean look for writing that sounds just like what you are posting. Or just do what we did and let it find you over the years as that also works.