sold the 9.39 NUGT at 9.58....LBO set at 9.35 for re-entry. Not sure I'm gonna get it. USD/JPY falling back at 109.90 as I type. Will be interesting to watch the 1045-1200 cst charts for the turn
x3rs of the pm
On friday, I had one of my therapists came by the office and I didn't set a limit order at 3:00 to get out by end of day. All weekend the fear factor was I would either hit it out of the park or take it in the shorts. Almost sold this morning at 9.30 to stop the bleeding when it looked like gold was continuing down.
Still holding and recovered somewhat. Losses wont be nearly as bad as I originally thought. Now trying to figure hold long to hold. Looks like NUGT holding strong in the 9.50 - 9.60 range. Wouldnt be nearly as bad to exit there with a 9.81 entry point. Should have gotten out Friday. Another lesson learned.
Playing the longer JDST swing trade I posted on the 18th here. Added DUST to it this AM seeing this action, esp with the silver contract still hanging until Thurs and coming after record high OI, seems like ideal setup for more pressure to the downside to me. Those high open interest peaks are trading tells when price turns down. Plus I'm looking at GDX and not seeing a real good turn until somewhere in the 20's, which would be another 8-10% possibly. So that would be DUST in the 41 area, JDST maybe more vigorous. Maybe 27-28? Who knows. I'll keep raising stops on the way.
Nice moves ! I wish I had been bold enough to follow that great advice you gave over a week ago. I was still looking for the break of 1300 and then a move back down quickly so I held onto the JNUG. I am SO deep underwater now that light doesn't even reach me anymore. I've really got no choice but to hang tough now.
The easiest thing in the world to do is BUY stocks;
The hardest thing in the world to do is SELL stocks.
I'm really not a very good trader.
Best O' Luck everyone !
I've mostly been on the sidelines. A little short using 2x etf when silver was over 18.20. Target to sell when silver 17.25ish.
The 2X etfs in Canada don't decay like the ones in the US. No idea why that is and they are still not good holding types but 3-6 months isn't a killer.
Having a position turn sour on you is not fun, we've all been there. and no matter how many times before I would say I was going to honour my stops and control risk somehow the drops would happen in ways that I would slough them off because "reasons" and pretty fast it was fugly.
Way back about 4 years ago when TF invited me to be a permanent guest poster, my very first article included a concept I'd learned researching trading called loss aversion. Knowing that we are hard wired this way made me better. Quote from my article is below:
Loss Aversion is the finding that people tend to be risk-averse for gains but simultaneously to be risk-acceptant for losses. To put it simply, gaining ten dollars gratifies us far less than losing ten dollars will upset us. Additionally, people will risk far more in order not to lose ten dollars than we would to possibly gain ten dollars. Rationally, it seems nuts, right? But it is thoroughly well research and has been proven true in experiment after experiment.
What this means is that, when it comes to assessing risk in relation to potential gains, people tend to be fairly conservative and will generally take on only those risks that are commensurate, and make sense in light of, the potential gains. But what is strange, and in the context of this discussion is actually quite frightening, is that people will engage in FAR riskier behavior in service of the goal of avoiding losses, often to a degree that seems to make no rational sense.
Let’s talk about some examples. It is a well-known that the final race at any race track will be see the heaviest betting of the entire day. This is not because people suddenly have an insight into the field, it is because by that point most people betting at the track that day have incurred substantial losses, and rather than simply accept their losses and go home, they are willing to bet an inordinately heavy amount on the final race in hopes of avoiding the finality of having to book their losses by going home. They are willing to wager (risk) more than they normally would to avoid losses, even if this rationally makes no sense at all! Traders, at least beginning traders, often make the exact same mistake in the markets- rather than book losses and get out of a losing trade, they irrationally hold a deteriorating position (because if you don’t sell, the losses aren’t made “real”) or they even double down on what has been a poorly performing investment, making a riskier bet in the hopes of a big comeback to avoid their losses.
At this very moment the market doesn't care what red number shows behind the minus sign next to NUGT. It's going where it will go. If your analysis shows that's up, long is the path. If it shows down, flip and go short. And if you don't know, then get out until you do.
Im looking to add more DUST on a small bounce at some point this morning, hope to take it to the above targets but we will see.
Closed my shorts on that spike in the metals off the lows- miners were lagging it and still low, so I decided not to get too greedy and booked profits. Out of DUST @30.75, out of JDST at 21.45.
Will wait until I see if we work off this oversold condition, then see if it looks like miners want to rise, or roll over. If it rises then rolls over at overhead resistance (GDX 22.2, and bigger resist. at 22,60) & turns down over the coming days, I will reinitiate these shorts. Otherwise, will just wait in cash for a while. If I left $ on the table, then so be it. Knowing when to let my winners run, and when to book profits, is something I'm terrible at.
Greatly appreciated, and I'm glad to see you NUGT guys get some back. BRW, Typo in that post, the DUST was 33.75 obviously, but I dodged a bullet there. Both JDST and DUST took a dump right after. Maybe I was due for some blind luck, 'cause that's all it was. I totally agree with you, that big OI, esp in silver, might have been negated with this move, the big boys move it down to cover sometimes, to stay ahead of the headlines and it sure seems the war drums are beating. If so, it's time to go long. I always seem to get hurt playing the headlines and not the charts though- nails me every time. Think I'll see what it looks like in the AM, if it's a real turn and genuinely big move coming, I've not missed much of it. Have to see what the chart says- north of 1280 for gold or 22.20 gdx, then maybe this is an actual direction.
Got my target. Out.
May go to the bull ETF but heading on an extended holiday so it depends on how low she goes because I don't want to spend a lot of time checking the news or prices.
Pining your comments on how we've all been there hanging on to a bad trade, and the psychology are right on.
billhilly, sigh, yep, been there, done that. Several times.
I don't have what it takes to daytrade. I get exhausted or lose focus or something and make one or more of the typical trading errors. Then promise myself to try twice as hard which doesn't actually turn in to anything.
I think I have too much patience and it works against me.
I've tried to go with my strength and it seems patience is good for swing trading. My trades typically take place over 3 months but I will sell inside of a week if I get a good pop. And I can sit with cash in the account for weeks if needed.
Tony I think you've found your sweet spot too. What did that take, 3-4 years? Maybe it's Gladwell's 10,000 hours.
billhilly, recommend you go read random sections of Pailin's Trading Corner and look for yourself in there. By that I mean look for writing that sounds just like what you are posting. Or just do what we did and let it find you over the years as that also works.