x3rs of the pm

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tonym9
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108.56 today's USD/JPY

108.56 today's USD/JPY low........108.62 right now per investing.com

without all the other crap that data point looks pretty good for you Billhilly

...time for me to get outside. i've got a truckload of manure/compost to get mixed into my new beds....plus i think better with a shovel in my hand

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new Ronnie Fatal

new Ronnie Fattal

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Pining 4 the Fjords
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Ha! We think alike Tony

Assume you'll read this when you get back from the outdoor work-  I too was thinking about alternatives, and was looking at the Sprott Juniors fund.  I was curious how many of the companies on the GDXJ "sell" list were in the SDGJ basket, and if so how much, and what % of the portfolio... in other words, assuming the GDXJ rebalancing will represent not only GDXJ selling those shares in May/June, but also will discourage other investors and new money from entering those companies for that very reason, I wanted to know if the Sprott juniors fund was a viable alternative.

Answer is no. Every single holding in the Sprott fund is on the GDXJ list! A few buys, mostly sells.

The top 4 holdings of SDGJ, representing 30.25%, are not to badly hit, but slightly more will be sold than bought.

The middle third, 36% of total holdings, however is worse. 9 companies, four will be added, five will be sold by GDXJ rebalancing, but the largest, osisko will have 12 days worth of shares sold... -12. As a group, it totals out to 9 companies, -19 days of volume to be sold, 2.11 days of volume per company.  Ouch. 

But the bottom third, the smallest companies that are most illiquid with the smallest floats yet represent 33% of the portfolio, will take a big hit.  22 companies, not one will be added to by GDXJ rebalancing- all will be sold, to the tune of 119 days worth of total trading volume, if I'm reading this right.

Now maybe I am reading the Direxion info wrong, but that's how it seems to me. Regardless, the middle and bottom thirds of SDGJ will get hurt badly by this, and will likely underperform going forward until valuations get so low that they become steals and bargain hunters come in...  

It's looking more and more like UGLD/ USLV to the upside, miners when playing the downside. Otherwise, I just don't see how to account for these huge fund flows going out of these small companies, at least until this process is over.  On the other hand, very sharp cookies who know these companies, resources, balance sheets, etc may find some really inefficient valuations over the next few weeks/months.  I suspect they may snap up some great long-terms holds and make a killing, when the GDXJ elephant is done shaking the floor. That might be the best way to play this thing. 

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GDXJ rebalancing?

Does anyone have any info as to what the rebalancing of companies structure in GDXJ will look like? Links? I found this "Looks like $GDXJ is loading up on $GFI $TAHO $EGO $PAAS $HL $AUY $SBGL" from this link here ...   https://twitter.com/EconomicAlpha . Watching the trading action on my miners watch list, indeed all of these companies stocks are all up big on Thursday with many of the other miners on my list down. Does VanEck provide this info publicly or is it all top secret?

Tony, looks like Ronnie has a wait and see approach in his lastest video. How do you trade that?

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Thanks to Imfometron for this post

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/610672#comment-610672 

Name                  Symbol            IndexFlows(Shares)       DaysofVolume       Type             Conviction  
  
Buenaventura   BVNUS            22,090,000                    16                 Add      Medium(closetomaxsize)        
  OceanagoldCorp   OGCCN   48,990,000                     14                              Add               High  
  GoldFields   GFIUS   66,020,000                                 10                  Add     Medium(closetomaxsize)  
  ZhaojinMining   1818HK   76,940,000                         7                  Add       Medium(closetomaxsize)  
  HeclaMiningCo   HLUS       31,370,000                        5                 Add                             High  
  PanAmerSilver   PAASCN   12,040,000                       5                  Add                            High  
  EldoradoGold   ELDCN       57,310,000                        5                              Add                 High  
  DetourGoldCorp   DGCCN   13,990,000                       5                             Add                 High  
   TahoeResources   THOCN   24,560,000                     4                              Add                 High  
  NewGoldInc   NGDCN          45,510,000                      4                           Addition             High  
  CoeurMiningInc   CDEUS   14,420,000                      4                           Addition             High  
  YamanaGoldInc   YRICN    75,600,000                      4                   Add        Medium(closetomaxsize)  
  FirstMajesticS   FRCN       12,830,000                         2                          Addition              High  
  ChinaGoldInter   CGGCN   -22,440,000                    21                   Downweight     
  GoldenStarRes   GSSUS   -34,060,000                       18                    Downweight     
  DundeePrecious   DPMCN   -9,540,000                     16                    Downweight     
  FirstMiningFin   FFCN       -50,560,000                     15                    Downweight     
  TerangaGold   TGZCN      -40,760,000                       15                     Downweight     
  OsiskoGoldRoya   ORUS   -7,130,000                         12                    Downweight     
  DrdgoldLtd-Adr   DRDUS   -4,250,000                     12                     Downweight     
  MagSilverCorp   MAGUS     -4,460,000                    12                     Downweight     
  AlacerGoldCorp   ASRCN   -26,090,000                   11                     Downweight     
  PrimeroMining   PPPUS   -13,480,000                     11                      Downweight     
  B2GoldCorp   BTGUS       -56,220,000                     10                      Downweight     
  GreatPantherSi   GPLUS   -15,230,000                    10                      Downweight     
  RichmontMines   RICUS     -4,510,000                     9                        Downweight     
  SilvercorpMetal   SVMCN    -15,140,000                  8                       Downweight     
  GuyanaGoldfield   GUYCN   -12,530,000                 8                       Downweight     
  EndeavourMining   EDVCN   -5,060,000                8                        Downweight     
  ContinentalGold   CNLCN   -10,810,000                 8                        Downweight     
  HochschildMinin   HOCLN   -21,610,000               7                         Downweight     
  NovagoldRes   NGUS            -17,670,000                 7                        Downweight     
  AsankoGoldInc   AKGUS      -13,820,000               7                        Downweight     
  KirklandLakeGo   KLCN       -12,010,000               7                          Downweight     
  PremierGoldMin   PGCN     -14,140,000                7                          Downweight     
  FortunaSilver   FSMUS       -11,140,000                 6                          Downweight     
  SandstormGold   SANDUS    -9,890,000              6                           Downweight     
  KlondexMines   KLDXUS      -5,960,000               6                          Downweight     
  AlamosGoldInc   AGIUS      -23,520,000               6                          Downweight     
  CenterraGoldIn   CGCN         -14,300,000              6                         Downweight     
  HighlandGoldMi   HGMLN   -14,490,000             6                         Downweight     
  TorexGoldResou   TXGCN   -4,020,000                 5                         Downweight     
  GoldResourceCo   GOROUS   -4,510,000               5                        Downweight     
  ArgonautGoldIn   ARCN        -12,730,000              5                         Downweight     
  GoldStandardVe   GSVUS     -11,920,000               5                          Downweight     
  WesdomeGoldMin   WDOCN   -10,520,000         4                          Downweight     
  HarmonyGold-Adr   HMYUS   -23,960,000         4                          Downweight     
  EndeavourSilver   EXKUS        -11,350,000           4                         Downweight     
  SemafoInc   SMFCN                  -16,150,000           4                         Downweight     
  McewenMiningIn   MUXUS   -14,290,000             3                        Downweight     
  SilverStandard   SSRIUS        -6,850,000               3                         Downweight     
  PretiumResource   PVGUS   -9,860,000                3                          Downweight     
  SeabridgeGold   SAUS           -2,680,000                3                          Downweight     
  IamgoldCorp   IAGUS            -28,440,000             3                         Downweight     
  VaneckVectorsG   GDXUS   -10,900,000              0                          Delete  

infometron do you know when this info was poste by VanEck? This is IMO a clue as to how to trade these companies. infometron would you kindly consider posting over here on any future insights you may have in this regards. TIA Silverwood

billhilly
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a link...fwiw

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDXJ/qQwax42n-gdxj-up-till-next-rebalance-in-may/

Again, I've not seen a source for that list that infometron had posted.  I read the Bloomberg article and there was a link for something but I could not access it.  I am wondering if this is the "source". 

After reading this article: http://www.sprottglobal.com/thoughts/articles/etfs-and-how-they-can-affect-the-stock-you-own/    ....i now see that the "rebalancing" takes place quarterly, and the names of the companies are usually offered forth a few days prior. 

IDK, I'm confused and getting tired of trying to find anything constructive coming from the sources that SHOULD offer good info...the damn etf companies themselves ! 

I guess what I am sure of is, I will be awake at 3am (PST) Monday morning.  shite !

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wow you guys have been

wow you guys have been busy, almost got my dirt down, dark ran me in...

PINING: Thank you for the research, that was a ton of work for us.

BILLHILLY: I haven't started the search myself yet, i'll let you know if i can find anything, but doubtful as you prolly went to the same places i will

SILVERWOOD: Thanks for that list. iirc you were the one who originally posted Ronnie on PTC, thanks for that too, I enjoy his video presentations. As far as how I trade it, mostly level/scenario watching. If this than that kind of deal...  But I'm not married to EW, I use it as a guide post. As an example canonma was bullish last video (EW) Thursday morning talking about 1305 as the next stop...I'm in DUST Thursday night due to headlines, or better said what I believe will be a lack thereof that should result in some pullback in gold. 

I'm a bit different than the EW guys atm...I'm looking for 1245ish before 1305

Right now its morning in NoK, the party day for the dear departed leader...if there is going to be action, it's the next 12 hours that count...so far all is good. I hope (and not just cuz of my DUST position) this weekend is full of peace and not war.

USD/JPY goes out at 108.59...

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Thank you billhilly for your post

I think as a trader knowing how these VanEck guys have to buy and sell their positions will be an advantage to us little guy traders. I believe that you want to just ride their coattails and do what they do and you will make money, it's a no brainer! But they will have professional traders doing their biddding so being nibble will require an intimate knowledge of their goals and watch how it progresses. They will try to mask their trades so what that means to me is that they will create rallies in the positions they want to sell and the opposite for the positions the want to buy. Watching price action of the stocks in the list will be key. Why I am concerned is that several of the stocks in their list are core holdings for me. 

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So far so good, all is quiet

So far so good, all is quiet on the Korean Peninsula. He's parading for the press...I can live with that. Lets hope it stays that way. 

Set my DUST LSO at 29

Haven't looked at the rebalance/direxion stuff yet, garden work calling again today. 

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Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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GDXJ/JNUG

Still not finding anything really actionable.  I did find an earlier link to the CNBC article on Yahoo which makes me think that it is not the reason for the contrary move on Thursday.  I have also asked djr66 for a direct link to his BMO list, if he has one. 

Dated April 7;

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/etf-gets-too-big-index-190030016.html

Dated April 12;

www.cnbc.com/2017/04/12/how-an-etf-gets-too-big-for-its-index.html

I am hoping that this move on Thursday was a one-off sell-off due to reasons we'll never be allowed to fathom (unfortunately).  Maybe some big hedge funds decided to take profits ???  

Getting tired of this fishing...its supposed to be a relaxing holiday weekend.  And to boot, its snowing here now !  blah !

Pining 4 the Fjords
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Billhilly- nice fishing

You caught a big one. The good Doctor posted this info from a friend of a friend, but it's inside intel used to estimate what the GDXJ rebalancing  will do. Hedge fund research, private capital, really doesn't matter. It smells legit. This is some pro's best guesstimate of what the GDXJ move will do to these small companies, expressed in "days of average trading volume". So I was reading it right- they will be shedding a total number of Osisko shares, for example, equal to 12 days of ave trading vol. , etc. 

You know what would be the ballsy move here? Buy out of the money puts on a few of these and see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks. Oceana  or Goldfields, for instance... sitting with OTM puts but knowing that at some point between now and June 17 everyone and their brother is going to sell or short these thanks to GDXJ?  Interesting... 

Great work.

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A looksy at the JNUG stuff, I

A looksy at the JNUG stuff, I now have a headache...nothing new found. Wow Billyhilly, Pining, Silverwood and Djr66 are owed serious hat tips....y'all combined to do a very good job of gathering the info that's avail and putting it into useful form. 

IMO there is no way to know how exactly this JNUG thing is going to play out. But Pining I like your thoughts on how to play it. 

So, I go back to my original thoughts when I decided to re-enter trading using Direxion's funds....it is a daily gamble, you pick which way you think it's going to go and right or wrong you get out daily. The complications of the funds, the decay, the expenses...all conspire against retail traders like myself. No way you hold these things for more than a short term play. 

The best I can tell is there are 2 scenarios:

1. The 'scarcity' of JNUG will push the share price up, pending buyer demand, which is in no way predictable....but if gold continues to move up the scarcity issue could serve as a multiplier pending that demand....it's a moonshot for JNUG. 

2. The rebalance of GDXJ will overwhelm the scarcity issue and as junior share prices move down, JNUG moves down or if juniors get hammered by GDXJ's moves, it's a freefall for JNUG. 

The question I have is in re to the JDST/JNUG relationship. They usually move pretty close to each other, just in opposite directions. So, if the rebalance GDXJ/falling jr share price issue does indeed overwhelm scarcity (which is the way I'm leaning on this deal), will JDST move up as JNUG moves down? I want the juice, and in that scenario JDST should be a rocket.

However...IMO JNUG/JDST are no touch right now. I might be missing huge opportunity, but I'm content to play NUGT/DUST until a direction in JNUG is proven.

So, I'll still play Direxion....just NUGT/DUST since it can still be somewhat predictable.  

--------------

Market Update as of 615pm CST 4/16:

GOLD: 1295.50

SILVER: 18.59

USD: 100.49

USD/JPY: 108.53

So we have now hit the downtrend upper channel line...either it holds and we fall back as we have done for 5 years, or gold breaks out and flies like it hasn't since 2009-2011. 

My DUST isn't looking so good so far...

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Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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New strategy for Monday am...

Even though I am heavy JNUG I am not going to set my alarm for the 3am wake up.  I have tried early morning trades before and rarely do well so I have decided to sit tight (and hopefully right) well into the official open before doing anything.  I'll look in before sleep tonight and see where things are but I don't want to make a foolish mistake by following an early morning herd and then having things turn around mid day.  In fact, for me, the prudent thing might be to take the day off and see where things lay Tuesday...

...yea RIGHT !!!!

even with no alarm set whatchya wanna bet I'm awake at 3 ??? friggin, fraggin ....

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Time zone?

Hey Billy, why would you get up at 3 am your time? That is when I get up because I am in Hawaii and we are 6 hours later than NYC. So market opens at 3:30 am my time. I thought you were in Canada which western Canada is same as US West coast which is 3 hours difference than NY.

Anyway in regard to trading this rebalancing of gdxj this is my thoughts; I own a core and trading position in Mag silver. I see that according to the list from Imfometron posted above, mag silver will be sold and Oceanagold will be bought. So I will use a ratio analysis to watch this. That is on stockcharts I will type in mag:ocanf and see which one is outperforming. Right now that ratio stands at 4.08 so what that means is for every share of mag I can get 4.08 shares of ocanf. So lets say that the ratio falls to 3.0 I now can buy back mag using only 3 shares of ocanf and can either buy more shares of mag or buy back what I sold in mag and have of profit of one in four shares of ocanf. I am considering this trade so I will watch the ratio chart for clues.

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Silverwood...

You are correct in your time analysis.  I am on PST so the regular market opens at 6:30 am for me but the pre-market trading session opens at 3 am, at least for Scottrade.  The pre-market is awfully thin but sometimes, only sometimes for me, I have been able to do a trade which works out.  Our host Tony seems to do a fair bit of trading then and he has some skill with it. 

Regarding your theory above; it sounds like a reasonable idea and might be worth a try.  I'd be most interested in your letting us know how it works out.  I love reading what people are doing on a daily/intra daily basis and I hope no one is shy about posting their trades.  This is good for all of us I think.

Off to bed...fingers crossed for tomorrow. 

tonym9
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Premarket tradingI actually

Premarket trading

I actually like it better than regular market hours. It moves slower, but moves more. The problem is if you get on the wrong side and want to get out you get punished by deal seekers on the bid. Usually if you get into trouble you can wait it out and not take as bad of a hit 15-30 mins before open. Easier to trade JNUG/JDST in the premarket as the vol is much better than NUGT/DUST. But on big news days there is ample trading and good opportunity in all 4 of the x3s, and as long as you position the right way it can be a really good morning....being wrong footed on a big news day can hurt, but it will typically come back to you somewhat. I try to position the right way then set an LSO about 5-10% higher as the spike will usually catch you....the spike inevitably fades, then get back in. Sometimes if you are really on, you can catch the spike going both directions...this is a rare feat for me, but the few I've had have been very very rewarding.  

I'm a little shocked at the market this morning. I expected gold to be up and my DUST to take a hit. The plan is to ride this out for a bit and see what happens. I'm keenly aware of that long term downtrend channel and being right at the top of it, but am waiting on Mr Market tell me what is going on. 

----

Premarket Trading Report, 655-700am cst:

per investing.com

GOLD: 1288

SILVER: 18.54

USD: 100.16

USD/JPY: 108.48

per scottrade ticker:

GDX: 24.56/24.59

NUGT: 11.18/11.19

DUST: 24.60/24.66 (I'm in at 24.70 from Thursday aftermarket and am holding to see) 24.14 was this morning's premarket low iirc

GDXJ: 36.67/36.70

JNUG: 6.82/6.83 with 277,451 traded which is in the normal range by this time in the premarket. I see no abnormal movements 

JDST: 13.79/13.88

GLD: 122.52/122.54

SLV: 17.56.17.57

-----

EVENTS

NY State Manufacturing Index at 730 cst

----

EDIT: I'm starting to see some skewing in JNUG's trading vol compared to JDST. It's 8:1, which is an abnormally hi ratio, it's usually 3-4:1....445,738 to 59839

GDX is up a little, GDXJ is down a little more. The ratio in price between JNUG and JDST seems about right. If and this is a huge IF, people are starting to get out of GDXJ/JNUG, JDST appears to be doing what it should be doing. This is something I intend to watch very very close. I can't flip to anything today due to DTBP limits, but if it looks like the punishment in the juniors is starting and JDST's action is right, that is a train I want to be on....but JDST has to prove to me it will act as it should before I make the move. 

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Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

tonym9
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JNUG action this morningVol

JNUG action this morning

Vol is high (645000) even with Empire State report. 

JDST is about right at 84000

JDST: 13.98/14.00 (up from 13.77)

DUST: 24.63/24.68 (down from 24.72)

GDXJ: 36.51/36.56 (closed at 36.70)

GDX: 24.53/24.54 (closed at 24.54)

JNUG: 6.71/6.73 (closed at 6.80)

NUGT: 11.16/11.17 (closed at 11.15)

Hard to grade this but it looks like there is slight punishment in the juniors...something is afoot tho as JNUG vol is 727000 to JDST 100000....JNUG should be about half that vol right now. hmmmmm

EDIT: Gold is down about 3.50 since premarket open...not a big move at all but I would not put the move in JNUG/GDX all on the GDXJ rebalance/Direxion announcement. Price action is fairly typical I'd say. It's the vol that is catching my eye. 

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

tonym9
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Given what i am seeing in

Given what i am seeing in JDST i have lowered my LSO from 29 on DUST to 25.70 for it to hopefully get hit this afternoon instead of holding to early-mid week. JDST looks like it is moving as it should, assuming it continues to do so throughout the day, i'll switch back to a JDST position tomorrow morning once DTBP resets....IF I stay in the short term bear camp. However I will not go long JNUG, it's a no touch, NUGT will be the play there.

Silverwood: I've said it before to both you and Tyberious...I am damn jealous. Someday....  Thanks for the reminder. HI is why I'm trading again.  

__________________

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

billhilly
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interesting...

...that the JNUG is actually priced at a premium for the morning.  GDXJ down 1.5 % ;  JDST up 4.75 % ;  JNUG only down  2.6 % .   Strange goings-on !

ps.  yes I was up at 3 am, no alarm.  Coulda, shoulda, woulda sold at 6.95.  Went back to bed....

Mustang220
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Tony, Billhilly Thanks for the help,

Tony, Billhilly

Thanks for the help and comments on the margin account at Scottrade.  Got it converted and started trading this morning. 

First trade in JDST at 14.11.  Got out at 14.25 after getting a little nervous it would not move higher by hey a profit is a profit on your first trade.

Second trade  in nugt at 11.15.  still holding and looking for continued success.

GLTA.

Mustang

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