You are rude everywhere, eh broker? Enjoying your life are you?
We did have a "green" day a couple days ago. Where do you see a bottom here Broker? I thought it was $16.30. Now I think we could be going to $12-13
out of JNUG at 16.08, ran a little after i sold. will re eval tmrw with DTBP reset.
don't like USD/JPY headed back up, gold slipping, silver slipping, 10 yr UST moving back up after a slight lowering and oil up when it is in macro down move so i sold
not sure about DSLV, havent' researched it WT
for sure don't like the charts but after a beating like the past 2-3 weeks, where do you?
EDIT: took a 1/6 DUST position at 33.65, per above ...really would like to take a full JDST here at mid-hi 80s but cant
I'm waiting to see what silver does. If $16 support holds then I'll buy USLV. I'm looking for a run to high $17s then expecting the price to crash again. If $16 support breaks then I'm buying DSLV because who knows how far she will drop.
I guess I'm waiting to see what happens as well. Long-term, I see silver still being in a bear market and that she is going to retest 13s if not 12s...
My opinion, and we'll see.
Silver is $3 from the lows (13)...$5 from where I think we need to get to for escape velocity (21)....$2 away from resumption of happy sentiment (18)
which do we get first? I have no clue.
your view is as good as any i've read
i'm watching USD/JPY and UST 10yr % for clues more than USD right now.
i don't like the way UST10% shot up, is at 2.410 right now...not good
Opinions please. Would you(anyone) add to silver stack when prices visits $15.70 area? That is the next area of support from the Dec. 2016 low.
As your post asked for opinions, I'll toss one into the ring. please feel free to ignore if this doesn't fit your style or goals- it's JMO!
If you get that price, I'd say yes for sure. I'll go even further. To me, if I am in a position to add to the stack and feel it's appropriate financially to do so, and I'm looking at a weekly chart going back 3 or even 5 years and seeing that we are pretty near the very bottom area of that big trading range already, then I'd just buy now and not wait. At spot below 16 they'll likely bump premium anyway (which has happened every time, sometimes it's MORE expensive) but even if you get lucky in price and it doesn't run away from you, then manage to dodge premium hikes, you've... saved 30 or 40 cents trying to perfectly bottom tick-it? Meh.
Me, I'd just buy and if a price drop worries you, only buy 1/2 and wait and see. But then I'm a bird-in-hand guy.
Tough call...wait for a dippier dip or stack now ish. I'm debating this too.
I'm waiting out June's FOMC, but will watch the UST 10 yr as a trigger along with USD/JPY.
Of course it all changes with one geopolitical event
I have been watching the action in USLV. Very interesting movement. Yesterday when silver was flat (price) from day before, USLV was down .23, hmmm. Today with Ag price within 5 cents of checking morning v afternoon, up .23.
I'm still thinking of taking a stab at a Put on DSLV when AG changes direction. May need to do tomorrow, but thinking another .50 to the downside is possible in the near future.
USLV bit me for 5 figures in 2013, so a little wary of this shitty thing. That's why I'm thinking DSLV puts or playing puts on both in reverse directions. Maybe a spread put bet a better option yet.
Damn I hate gambling.
for a quarter, I would be adding to stack now, but I have an inside game with my LCS, so I get stuff when the premium is 0 and he needs some cash to float. Unfortunately for me, I ended up with a stack of 10 Oz bars around 18 last month.
Yes I should look before I speak. Now I understand your question Pining about shorting DSLV. No Puts! Hell, I figured they had options for everything by now.
So, Dust maybe the ride I shall take.
HUI Jan 2017 221, Dust 24.84
Hui Apr 2017 212, Dust 24.72
Lost a little in 3 months, probably $2. I want to enjoy a little of their bleed.
If we can bounce from here for 3 weeks, 210 HUI should be in play. That puts Dust 23~21. Thinking Put spread 30/25, $1.80. 1st week of June exp. Catch is if we bounce fast because of the prolonged downdraft we've been in and turn before expiry, then have to roll down to hold max profit or just close with some profit. Or we just fall like a rock from here and shit the bed dead.
If miners ever start on a long haul like first of 2016, a Leap Put just out of the money would pay mega, 50/1 or better my guess.
Went and looked at Dust Jan 2016 thru May 2016
High...........1022 in Jan at HUI low
Low..............................62.50 in May at HUI top
lets see, Dust $20 Jan 2018 Put is currently $3.80? (2200 open now!) Its out of the money by $13.
Someone smarter than me will have to calculate if we are speculating a low in the hui with a 100 point move to the upside. My guess your 3.80 is worth alot, 990 guestimate? There's no way it's $99,000 per contract.
Something is waaaay off. I need sleep.
Premarket Trading Report, 540cst
UST 10 Yr %: 2.389
PER SCOTTRADE TICKER:
JDST: 86.15/86.32 (I'm in at 86.93...waiting on the 6-7am turn)
As a follow-on to my extended post on Main last Thursday calling to bottom, I did what I said in the article and averaged in as I got prices. Bought miners etc, but with my "gambling portion" I've averaged into NUGT thurs through tues , DCA at 28.46 for a swing trade (longer term, I hope).
So my money has been placed where my mouth is... we will see. FYI, I'm still not trusting JNUG to hold value over time, especially with confusion over the looming June 17 date (are they selling beforehand? All that week? Nobody knows and there is no confusion about NUGT, so there I am).
Nice hammer forming on the silver weekly! Looking to jump into USLV today, then looking to find an exit at around $18
rolled out of JDST, didn't get the turn...miners look to be hanging tough. UST 10 yr at 2.419 gives me pause, but back in JNUG at 16.39/4.10....my trademark, a little early/hi. Will see how it holds at the open
Pining I'm with you on the concern on JNUG, but must admit to taking a gamble on it
Boomer: interestd in what you play there...
WT: thumbs up!
GLTA, here comes the open
Good day to be in JNUG!
Took the final 7% of my gambling position (the remainder) in JNUG, just to see how it compares overtime to the NUGT. So now I'm fully stacked in my trade, in JNUG at 16.43, in NUGT w/ 28.46 dca. Looking good for the bottom I called last week, but you know how these things go.
Keep in mind that this big move I'm looking at could have a false start here- one possible scenario is up for a gain short term, then we slide back down into mid-June for a summer solstice low. Either way, I don't want to miss the meat of the move or get left behind so I'm in now. The entire setup is void if we break Dec lows on the GDX at 19, and that's where my stops are. Short of that I will play the next three weeks by ear, may lighten in a couple of weeks if I sense overbought and/or a slide into mid June, but I don't want to lose my position either. Mostly it's time to be right and sit tight.
tried to play 113.70 USD/JPY, got out of 16.39 JNUG at 16.91, then watched USD/JPY fall more...still made money but damn it lol, calling these levels is tough.
Agree with you Pining about the meat of the move, today is a perfect example of just letting it ride.
Currently looking for re entry, doubt my LBO gets hit, JNUG looks pretty healthy. Expected a come back at the 11-12 turn, but so far not seeing it.
Sure am damn glad to see us making some coin here, been a tough few weeks. GO JNUGers
Thinkin 'bout ya Billhilly
Mustang you too
EDIT, catching a falling knife here but JNUG hit the magic 10% up level...in JDST at 79.89 for a quick scalp attempt, prolly gonna lose a finger or two
Hey there tony and all,
It's been a while. I've been shell shocked and not doing any trading of late. I've held my JNUG position through all this and its been misery. Maybe, we are looking higher now but one never knows.
I finally did a trade yesterday Out Jnug, in Jdst, back in Jnug and made a small profit. Am currently trying that again now with an out Jnug at 16.91 (same as you, funny) and in Jdst at freakin 83...no joy here.
I'm watching the trend in $/Y and thinking it wants to go to the 115 level. I may try a hold overnight and see what tomorrow brings, hoping for some recovery from the Jdst position. We'll see.
Thanks for the thoughts. It's nice to be back for a spell ! Thanks for making this forum !
Trying to catch 113.70 USD/JPY hurt. Missed a huge part of the run. Took a tiny JDST loss trying to catch it going the other way and thankfully got out before the end of the day JDST dump. The after action trading review looks like the exit at 113.70, if looking for a JNUG down turn, was the place to look for it. Where I really screwed up was not reading the chart correctly to catch the move to get back in.
BUT...JNUG/GDXJ seem to be breaking away from the normal signposts normally used along the way. THIS SCREAMS VERY BULLISH.....OR IT SCREAMS HUGE TRAP. Candidly I'm not sure which way this is going to go.
Right now I'm flat.
I'm leaning JNUG for tomorrow. But right now it's pure gambling in my mind and that's why I'm even more skittish than normal.
Is this finally the time to get into the JNUG hold position I've been looking for? Maybe. But FOMC, and and and.....
Bottom line is I made some money today and I need to be grateful for it. Problem is I don't feel that way.
Billhilly: glad your back to trading. It's a hole, but you CAN trade out of it. FWIW, I've climbed out of 2 holes prior and am in the process of digging out of my third which is the post election NUGT play that blew up on me. Funny that both of us got out at 16.91 this morning and I'm guessing you were watching the USD/JPY 113.70 level too. Good luck to you and remember to figure your stop before your entry. You will come back. GO GET IT Billhilly.
DUST needed splits to get to over 1000. Found a site splithistory.Com that is very helpful.
Through the day my idea of riding 10 contracts had been nagging. So here goes
10 contracts would have been necessary to make it from top to bottom in the run of 2016.
10x100= 1000 shares x say $4 = $4,000 investment
Reverse split 1/10 in May 2016, now down to 1 contract, 100 shares. (another in August 1/5)
$1022-10 out of the money, 1012 strike price post reverse splits. That would make 101.20 the original strike price.
After reverse split price $62.50.
Basically $950 per share x 100 (1 contract) = $95,000-4,000= $91,000
One problem, the reverse split in August 2016 of 1/5 is making me doubt my numbers.
If the 1/5 is backed out $91,000/5= $18,200 this number is more believable.
$4,000 to make $18,200 with 10 puts in Dust last year Jan to May 2016.