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x3rs of the pm

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Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 2:51pm
tonym9
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profit is always good i'm

profit is always good

i'm taking a chance here but headlines win...back in, JNUG at 7.10 for the close. LSO at 7.35

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 3:44pm
billhilly
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feelin lucky now...

...aren't we ?!

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 4:09pm (Reply to #23)
redwood
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Yes, glad I was wrong today.

Yes, glad I was wrong today.

Edit: And it continues to rise! Should be an interesting evening.

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 4:18pm (Reply to #24)
billhilly
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funny...

...but yes, sometimes its good to be wrong. How's the saying go...sometimes better to be lucky than good !!!!

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 4:48pm
Mustang220
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San Antonio, TX
Joined: Jan 26, 2017
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Lamenting

Wish I had been in JNUG today. I don't have a margin account like you rich guys do. I daytrade JNUG or week trade (if I get stuck on the wrong end of a trade), sell my position and wait out the three days. Last trade was Tuesday and settlement is Monday. It could get interesting trying to figure an entry point Monday morning.

Mustang

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 5:59pm
tonym9
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JNUG lso at 7.35 hit and

JNUG lso at 7.35 hit and I tried to get cute with a JDST run the other way....ouch. will be even on the day after i take my hit.

headlines win.

luck: the place where preparation AND opportunity meet....good flip n roll Billhilly, you stuck to your position thesis... THAT is a good day.

Mustang no margin use here....that's death. I stay within my account balance limits and use margin to float my trades. Monday's entry could prove very interesting indeed. Sometimes I wonder if that limit would be better for me...overtrading kills me sometimes...like today lol

GLTA, glad to see money being made...GO GET EM

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 6:04pm (Reply to #27)
Mustang220
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Joined: Jan 26, 2017
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No Margin Huh?

Tony,

Thats interesting. I thought as often as you and billhilly trade, you were doing it on a margin account. I thought I had read you had a Scottrade acct like I do. I would be interested in hearing more how you work the margin to float those trades. Thanks.

Mustang

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 6:26pm (Reply to #28)
billhilly
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Mustang...

I can't answer for Tony but I also have a Scottrade margin account. Yes indeed, using margin is a high risk endeavor if you are not very very careful, ESPECIALLY with these 3X monsters. Fortunately, Scottrade does not allow full margin percentage to be used on most etf's. This means that they make you have a large percentage of the trade in free cash flow. An example;

If I have 25,000 in an account then they will allow me to trade normal stocks up to 50,000 (or more sometimes), But with the etf's they only allow me to trade around 25,000 worth. So in other words you can only buy what you can fully fund. This is actually a good thing too !

One other thing...this is really stressful stuff, trading. I do not recommend it unless you can really handle the strain. And I REALLY don't recommend these 3x products unless you can pay very close attention to the trades. These are definitely NOT buy and hold deals. And they are killers on the balance if you get caught in the wrong direction (speaking from MUCH experience) !

Anyway, be careful if you choose to trade...and of course, best of luck !!!!!

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 6:57pm
tonym9
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Yep, Scottrade Pattern Day

Yep, Scottrade Pattern Day Trader / Margin Account. Takes 25k to start

But I don't use margin in the traditional sense, meaning I don't buy more position than I have money in my account for. As long as I sell at end of day, my Day Trade Buying Power resets for the next day. If I hold, the DTBP is so low that it's not worth trading until it recharges next biz day. That way I don't get overextended on a margin call if I'm wrong, but worse have to dip into the house funds to cover it...my wife would absolutely positively kill me same day, no overnight delay...dead on the spot. Also that's a big reason why I never hold overnight. 

Sold the JDST at 12.62....bummer. I hate seeing a day's work go up in vapor with one bad trade. But, that's what I get for trying to get cute..... I know better. That was a greed moment... Greed, Fear, and FOMO....my 3 biggest hurdles. 

------

For the lurkers EDIT: I want to strongly echo Billhilly's comments above. This IS very very stressful.

Part of the reason I posted so much at PTC and now here re the x3's, is that I'm trying to give a window to those who don't do this daily. I'm trying to show to the new guys that they need to think long and hard before committing funds to these x3 funds....and be prepared to lose most if not all of it. These x3 funds are IMO the most dangerous instrument out there for retail traders. You are trading 2 volatile commodities with Forex/headline/.gov risks, but not really since you are trading the miners of the commodities, then you put them in a group, then you multiply the group x3 while adding decay, momentum and expenses. Crazy...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 7:32pm
NC Fred
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Re. Daytrading

A couple of years ago I tried trading the mini-silver and mini-gold futures. Problem is, I was trading scared. Only had about 12k in the account.

The advantages were: Low commissions (about $2 per trade), no decay factor, lots of leverage (about 10 to 1), not limited to trading 6.5 hours per day. The most I made on a single trade was very late on a Sunday night one time.

When I first tried it back in '09 silver was around $10. I considered buying a single mini-silver contract and just taking delivery of the 1,000 oz bar. No premium to pay. That would actually have worked out pretty well.

 Too stressful for me.

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 7:47pm
Mustang220
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San Antonio, TX
Joined: Jan 26, 2017
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Trading the 3X

Thanks for the info guys. I'm not doing too bad. I've had 4 JNUG trades in last 5 weeks all gains averaging about $1,600 per trade. Had to hold the last one for a little over a week to get back over 6.95. I hear ya on the getting caught on the wrong side of a trade. Been there and done that too.

I will check out the DTBP on the Scottrade website. 

Mustang

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 8:19pm
tonym9
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Da yamm.....I just checked

Da yamm.....I just checked out some of the headline stories of the day. I should have held my 7.10 JNUG dang it.

Tomorrow morning I'll play JDST for a little correction, then get into the JNUG. 

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 4 12 2017
"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 10:51pm
tonym9
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I always have to watch myself

I always have to watch myself for over contrary thought. But I have to admit that after immersing myself in news the past few hours I'm cooking up a thesis that might get me into trouble:

What if this weekend goes by and no ugliness happens in the world?

Gold would get the shit kicked out of it. Look at the DMA's and trend lines. 

A weekend hold of JNUG is not happening

Consider this your warning.

Research the charts through the eyes of how big a hit could gold take here. I'm thinking $50-65 taking us to 1225-1235 as a pretty reasonable possibility.

Miners? JDST 20/JNUG 5 ????

hmmmm...time for sleep

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 11:25pm
billhilly
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Tony writes...

... What if this weekend goes by and no ugliness happens in the world?

I say, "How wonderful !!!!!"

Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 6:25am
tonym9
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Joined: Sep 27, 2011
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indeed.... premarket trading

indeed....

premarket trading report, 517-520am cst, 4/13

per investing.com

GOLD: 1290.25

SILVER: 18.59

USD: 100.19

USD/JPY: 108.94

per scottrade ticker:

GDXJ: 38.01/38.09

JDST: 12.46/12.59 (I'm in at 12.50) VOL: 16350

JNUG: 7.56/7.60 VOL: 98743

GDX: 24.73/24.76

NUGT: 11.45/11.48

DUST: 24.02/24.11

GLD: 122.61/122.64

SLV: 17.57/17.52

---

EVENTS

the big chunk of data is 730am cst initial jobless claims, PPI

845 is Bloomberg consumer confidence

9 is MI consumer sentiment, inflation expections

---

Watch your 6 ... GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 6:57am
tonym9
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I'm actually entertaining the

I'm actually entertaining the idea of holding the 12.50 JDST that I just purchased over the weekend. ....kicks self in the butt....

Gold has run up fast and hard on geo-political....spidey senses for a downdraft

Gold is outside the BB range for the second day...see Ira's video

Gold is at the top of a longterm downchannel line with a good history of repelling spot...thanks Pining

Copper fell out of bed

NoK ? Yep its bad but I just don't see Lil Kim committing suicide...why would he...he's fat and happy

Syria ? Yep its bad but Russia isn't entering a peeing contest with Trump...yet

The holding JDST thought is still in the cooker and I admit to hating to hold overnight at all, especially weekends, and especially holiday weekends...but if we get a geo-political fade gold loses big sending JDST up 5ish minimum IMO. The fade should start in Asia Sunday night and by the time it hit USA it would be deep into the corrective move.

The other side of it is IF something big NoK happens, it's a moonshot.....worth pondering as the day goes on

Opinions always welcome, that's why we are here...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 7:12am
tonym9
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1490
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just posted, watching it now

just posted, watching it now

04/13/17 - Gold GDX Silver Elliott Wave Market Analysis

EDIT:

he's bullish calling for 1305 test and fast....hmmmm

he's also watching 10 yr....hmmm

much to ponder re the JDST

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 8:36am
billhilly
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Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1743
18288

added...

to the JNUG @ 7.35 (dca now 7.21)

Interesting thoughts there Tony...hmmm, JDST over the weekend ??? Not sure I have a big enough set to try that. Action today may tell though.....

edit; so do we call 108.73 an official test of the 200 dma ??? If so, then we might very well continue to see $/Y go higher today. 

Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 8:55am
tonym9
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Yep Billhilly, but not

Yep Billhilly, but not big....just stupid. Do not hold I tell myself, but....

sold JDST at 12.69 as I left for work, missed some but profit is still profit

now in DUST at 24.61...switching horses but in the same race

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 13, 2017 - 10:19am
tonym9
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Joined: Sep 27, 2011
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been in/out of jdst, nugt

been in/out of jdst, dust, jnug this morning...am back to even on my loss from 2 days ago...lots of work to get back.....x3 trading, ugh

currently in JNUG at 6.96

EDIT: canon's video put a hitch in my get along...i'm riding cross currents this morning still thinking about a JDST hold over the weekend. This is a battle between headline/lack thereof risk and charting in my own head....who wins? Hmmmmm....game time decision and most likely not made until 30 mins prior to a/m close once I've left work.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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