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x3rs of the pm

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#1 Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 1:36pm
tonym9
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x3rs of the pm

Welcome

For any of you that have been following the JSDT/JNUG DUST/NUGT trading in Palin's Trading Corner I thought it would be better if we started a place dedicated to the good and bad of being a x3 trader. Intraday, daily, swing traders all welcome. You are encouraged to post your trades, charts, thoughts, musings....vents.

I feel like the original thought of PTC has been crowded out a bit by my posts there and don't want to be overwhelming.

So, here we are.

Success or fail is up to the x3rs...post as much or as little as you like

Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 1:38pm
tonym9
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The first real post of this

The first real post of this thread needs to be a warning.

DO NOT HOLD THE X3 FUNDS. THEY ARE NOT DESIGNED AS LONG TERM HOLDING VEHICLES, SEE PROSPECTUS FROM DIREXION.

DECAY, MOMENTUM, EXPENSES...ALL CONSPIRE AGAINST HOLDERS.

Daytrading is what JNUG JDST NUGT and DUST are created for.

As always GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 2:37pm
tonym9
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Current levels as of 137

Current levels as of 137 cst...this after a heavy POTUS news day re NoK/China

per investing.com:

GOLD: 1276.35

SILVER: 18.30

USD: 100.61

USD/JPY: 109.66

per scottrade:

GDXJ: 37.53 up 2.04%

JDST: 13.01 down 5.99%

JNUG: 7.30 up 6.26%

GDX: 24.36 up 3.00%

NUGT: 10.92 up 9.2

DUST: 25.25 down 9.04%

GLD: 121.26 up 1.52%

SLV: 17.31 up 1.82%

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 2:45pm
tonym9
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I'm in JDST at 13.80 from a

I'm in JDST at 13.80 from a premarket play. 

I hate for the first trade being posted here to be a loser, but it is instructive for any newbees to the x3s. I violated my rule of not holding a x3 while away from the computer...by the time I got to work a move had already started negating what looked like a pretty decent JDST day. Headlines piled on. My stop hasn't been hit yet, but it's close. 

I'm holding for a afternoon slight recovery where I will exit with a loss and try again tomorrow. The question for today and overnight in Asia is do we hold the gains through overnight and into tomorrow morning. 2 flag fails above resistance would paint the charts with ugly... Hold and the Spring Rally we've all been looking for can take shape. 

Normally the juniors move more than the bigger fish. Keep in mind GDX is a big part of GDXJ. The difference in movement is 3% today. Worth watching. 

Either way I won't hold overnight.

Each day is a new day with these x3 killers...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 3:43pm
tonym9
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Gold at 1276, clearly breaks

Gold at 1276, clearly breaks through 1260low resistance. 

Silver at 18.30

USD at 100.64

USD/JPY at 109.69

currently JNUG is 7.27

----

Back in December if someone told you these figures and asked you what JNUG would be what would be your response...15? 20? 

---

On 12/2/16 JNUG closed at 7.32 per share

per netdania silver closed at 16.74

per netdania gold closed at 1177

per netdania USD/JPY was 113.85

This should illustrate the reasons for not holding the x3 funds for more than a day or two. These funds basically reset each day. Yes decay has an effect. How do you chart decay? IDK. Momentum dumping and chasing push these funds all over the map and skew the chart. Just know that when you buy one of these funds it is a binary decision...it either goes your way or it doesn't. If it doesn't don't be stubborn. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 4:12pm
Mustang220
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Joined: Jan 26, 2017
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JNUG Movement

Tony,

I have been daytrading jnug for awhile now and have made and lost money on the trades. What I dont understand is jnug used to respond on a direct correlation to the gold price but not lately. Today gold was up huge but JNUG really did not respond like I thought it would. I made a profit on it. In at 6.95 and out at 7.30 but I expected it to be higher than that. Any thoughts?

Mustang

Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 4:51pm
tonym9
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Mustang: Totally agree the

Mustang:

Totally agree the past few months JNUG has had muted reactions to gold. But so has NUGT. IMO it finds its origin in the distrust/lack of interest of the mining sector in general. 

JNUG seems to have the perception of less risk than NUGT which doesn't seem to be accurate when you look at the stats. Might be related to the Jrs? Not sure... 

To directly answer your question....IDK, sorry. 

Today GDXJ closed at 37.50 up 1.96%.....JNUG closed up 6.11% at 7.29, JDST closed down 5.7% at 13.06.....did what it was supposed to do which is x3 of GDXJ

Today GDX closed at 24.36, up 3.00%....NUGT closed up 8.9% at 10.89, DUST closed down 8.79% at 25.33.....did what it was supposed to do which is x3 of GDX

Top GDX holdings per Scottrade:

Barrick Gold Corp 11.42%

Newmont Mining Corp 9.13%

Newcrest Mining Ltd 6.77%

Goldcorp Inc 6.42%

Franco-Nevada Corp 6.00%

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd 5.00%

Silver Wheaton Corp 4.66%

Randgold Resources Ltd ADR 4.39%

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd ADR 2.73%

Royal Gold Inc 2.70%

Percent of all Holdings 59.22%

----

Top GDXJ holdings per Scottrade:

Alamos Gold Inc 6.19%

B2Gold Corp 5.07%

GDX *******VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF 4.86%*******

Iamgold Corp 4.42%

Pretium Resources Inc 3.92%

Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd 3.82%

Torex Gold Resources Inc 3.36%

Endeavour Mining Corp 3.20%

Regis Resources Ltd 3.17%

Silver Standard Resources Inc 3.10%

Percent of all Holdings 41.12%

Bottom line is I would have expected NUGT/JNUG to be much higher than what they are right now. Why are they not? That's the $50m question. That's why I daytrade the funds only with very few exceptions. For me it can literally be more like minute trade when I'm able to pay attention to the computer....some days I will be in and out a dozen or more times. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 5:17pm
tonym9
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new ira metal video

new ira metal video

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 4 11 2017
"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Apr 11, 2017 - 7:38pm
tonym9
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Cramer is hawking Gold on Mad

Cramer is hawking Gold on Mad Money. Says the Trump trade is now Puts and Gold. Dayammmn. He didn't say the magic word though, GDX. 

I really want to hold the JDST, but alas 2 rule breaks in 1 day is 2 breaks too many....out at 12.95 for an .85 per share loss...ouch, 6% hit. 

Regroup in the morning. If I were betting I'd say overnight gold comes back to 1263. 

We shall see

No direction in mind for the morning...I seem to do best without preconceived notions

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 6:24am
tonym9
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premarket trading report,

premarket trading report, 507am cst, 4/12

per investing.com:

GOLD: 1274.5

SILVER: 18.32

USD: 100.66

USD/JPY; 109.73

per scottrade ticker:

GDXJ: 37.43/37.52

JNUG: 7.26/7.27

JDST: 13.03/13.08 

GDX: 24.34/24.40

NUGT: 10.88/10.98

DUST: 25.04/25.25

GLD: 121.21/121.23

SLV: 17.34/17.36

EVENTS:

FOMC Kaplan speaks at 9am cst

BOC has several announcements today

----

I'm in JDST at 13.04, obviously looking for a corrective dip. The test will be the DMA's:

MA 50: 1264.50
MA 100: 1261.53
MA 200: 1256.88

(these are the simples from investing.com, I haven't looked at my other place so they may be off a little)

Also gold pierced the top of the BB yesterday, see Ira's video

If the JDST side doesn't work out today, I'll be flipping to JNUG for the ride up. As I've typed this USD/JPY has given up the 10pip spike it had at 5am, is back down to 100.64.....JDST at 13.01/13.03

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 7:47am
billhilly
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hanging for now...

with JDST left-over from yesterday @ 13.15...we'll see what gets offered on the plate today. Best of luck all !

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 9:48am
tonym9
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Normally i'd have traded

Normally i'd have traded several times premarket already...still in at 13.04, original position

Not seeing a spike up on the open so far. That was my 'stop' for JDST.

Am holding now too, expecting a downward move obviously.

Good luck Billhilly

Looking for a successful test of MA's so I can finally get the JNUG longer term position I've been wanting to take for weeks, but I'm not holding my breath...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 9:54am
tonym9
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so much for the above post,

so much for the above post, sold JDST at 13.19, looks like a little dip coming...LBO at 13.01...will be in/out fast as work time permits...yesterday's loss down to .70, will keep chipping away at it

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 10:16am
redwood
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So far the weekly pattern is

So far the weekly pattern is intact. I expect Dust to go up today, judging mostly from the silver trade. We'll see.

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 11:55am
billhilly
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gdxj

twice rejected higher at its 50 day MA (yesterday and today). I have around 37.75 as 50dma...good for the JDST ??? maybe...still holding.

This is also the second time in a week or so where the $/Y was moving lower but JDST stayed firm. I always have to remind myself that it trades with the miners and not the price of Gold. It is subtle, but often there is some small disconnect between the two which explains why the anonmolies happen. fwiw

Holy crap, copper getting the snot beat out of it ! 

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 12:18pm
redwood
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Yeah billhilly, this is the

Yeah billhilly, this is the way it invariably goes. It really is a pattern I have observed for years now.

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 1:51pm
billhilly
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levels...

I'm looking for resistance @ the 110.00-110.10 dollar yen and 1272 for Gold. I'll likely flip from JDST to JNUG if we hit that....patience

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 2:33pm
billhilly
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dollar yen looking tired...

almost pulled the flip at 13.40 but the s+p 50 dma is 2350 ish and I really can't see them letting it slip away into the close. Still holding but I have no finger nails left !

Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 2:33pm
tonym9
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been base hitting (wouldn't

been base hitting (wouldn't even call it that) and did catch a nice squirt in JDST...not sure where i'm at on the day, no time due to work...just been in/out as can

currently in JNUG at 7.13 waiting on the next wave

have been waitiing for gold to break, isn't happening, seems to catch bids on the dips but i'm disconnected right now so could be all USD/JPY moves not gold buying

headline risk is high...i will be in a JNUG hold position by close Thursday...too much shit going on. Can only read headlines right now, but it seems POTUS has turned up the wick on going all war footing...need to catch up tonight

days like today are frustrating to me, I have to remind myself I'm manufacturing shares not dollars

EDIT: Flat, can't watch again due to work in a few minutes. Seems there is going to be a big move into the close...it's too quiet right now. I'm just not sure which way I want to try to play it. No short term clues that I'm picking up. Sometimes FLAT is a position too, must remind self of that...FOMO is one strong emotion and can overide common sense sometimes. 

I am still leaning to JDST but that is based on old info, with the headlines all of that can be tossed out.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 2:39pm
tonym9
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lol, hang on

lol, hang on Billhillyyyyyyy

really think it will move as we get to the close

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 12, 2017 - 2:43pm
billhilly
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too late !

Just did the jump at 13.33 and 7.13. Couldn't watch anymore. But, a profit, so am happy !!!!

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