Nice to see this forum is up and running. Congrats Turd!
Just wanted to post a link to my new charts for commenting.
I hope this works.
Very nice to see these charts. I hope you can keep them updated on here.
With silver still in consolidation (after the recent blowoff), it is a good time to analyze some of the events that have occurred in the physical silver market, in preparation for what could be the next-best rally in history for the shiny metal. In this post, I have singled-out a one major problem The U.S. Mint may be facing later this year.
For those who missed it, The U.S. House Subcommittee headed by Congressman Ron Paul, recently had a hearing on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at The U.S. Mint. Not to anyone’s surprise, we now find that the operations of The U.S. Mint were completely inline with the Fed—to make sound money unavailable to the public. In short, the two main excerpts why The U.S. Mint was and continues to be short of demand, and why it has out-sourced coin fabrication to two private entities along with The Perth Mint in Australia; because of “Extreme Costs” and being an “Environmental Hazard” to produce them, whereas private entities could make it “More cheaply and more safely” then the U.S. Mint. Clips of hearings can be watched here (U.S. Mint) and here (Primary Dealers). Although the ‘real’ reasons as to why The U.S Mint has fallen short of public demand is yet to be discovered.
The chart above (US Mint Monthly Silver Sales 1990-2011) shows U.S. Mint silver sales in ounces over the past 20 years. More notably, we see large seasonal spikes throughout the years and one large spike during January 2011 (6,422,000 ounces). Coincidentally, shortly after January sales were being reported, we witnessed a sizeable correction in mid-to-late January. The fact that the price may have been intentionally knocked-down to discourage buyers is irrelevant; this event clearly reveals a bigger problem for the mint.
The recent run on bullion was not related to shortages in raw silver, instead it was due to fabrication capacity falling short of demand (public & primary dealers). The important factor from this event was the velocity if public purchases that started around September 2010 (QE2) and ended in mid January. It was stated during the hearing that the U.S. Mint already expects to be short of demand by 8 million ounces and will need time to expand its domestic operations.
Current silver sales (by the mint) are on track for another record year and if we are to see QE3 (in any form) commence, the U.S. Mint will be helpless, as for the moment it has no capability of expanding its fabrication capacity to meet the upcoming bullion season (Indian wedding season) starting in late September. In recent reports by mainstream media, we are now learning that India has started a silver mania (ahead of wedding season) and this trend is likely to continue into the peak season. -MCX Charts above.
Sorry I have to cut this short tonight. I think you can quantify the rest.