Article: The Yukon: The new address for gold

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Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 8:08pm
T
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looking at Kaminak chart

Kaminak was one of the worse performers in gold miners I follow today. so whats the chart doing .

Kaminak finished 2012 with a collapse, from the september rally top around 2.40 down to 97 cents in early December.

What looked like a bottom zone in summer around 1.60 area, as it rode along the weekly 200 moving average around 1.70, and from there rallied in September to the 2.40 area, then,from there, collapsed in a vicious whipsaw down to the 1 dollar area in early december.

From 1 dollar it rallied in december to a peak around 1.65 and ..... typical of miners, having taken a month to go from 1 dollar to 1.65 ..... where big resistance was reached.

KAM now has plunged back almost half way, (1.37) in only 2 days !!..... bouncing around the 1.37 area to finish the week.

Simple technical charting would show a 50% retrace of this last rally wave to target the 1.30 area. there is a pivot point at 1.25

I think the 1.20 area is looking like an ok buy zone.

Brent Cook likes Kaminak and their gold discovery results.

The ongoing pullback from the 1.65 top zone, may still have more room to fall, I'd like to see another wave down, to target 1.17 area as a buy zone.

The chart looks to be developing a bottom settling zone around there. Unless it makes a double bottom at 1 dollar.

1.00 - 1.25 looks like the support buy zone.

But here now, at 1.40 is still too high.

To buy at 1.20 and sell at 2.40 would be the target double .

interesting price points in the long term Kaminak chart from top to bottom look like

4.80

3.60

2.40

1.20

Mon, Jan 7, 2013 - 8:31pm (Reply to #123)
TheGoodDoctor
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Well, all of them are getting

Well, all of them are getting beat down in the Yukon. IMHO there is more pain coming. There has to be a sell off in the markets to justify QE to infinity. Just get some powder dry and put in the stink bids when you feel like it. The winter has typically shown more weakness for the Yukon as well.

Hang in there T! It's just a matter of time. Things will get better in this sector as a whole. Like Santa says "Be right and sit tight". Or like he has been saying lately. Act like Sitting Bull! LOL.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Tue, Jan 8, 2013 - 12:58am
T
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yes, yukon miners

should be ok , the good ones.

I bought alot of Golden Predator last year, now I have to sell alot at break even.

I believe there has to be some yukon miners that will be big winners in the future. Brent Cook likes Kaminak.

Some like Atac.

I cant say what to gamble on. but at a certain price point, they have to be worth a bet.

Kaminak at 1 dollar. Atac at 1.30 ?

Golden Predator at 28 cents ?

who knows.

Problem is , I bought Golden Pred at 70 cents last year. thinking that was an ok price at the time.

Yikes.

there will be some big yukon winners.

Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - 11:46am
firstsilver
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Golden Predator on the move?

Golden Predator had a trading halt late Friday. It's splitting its promising royalty portfolio into a separate company/stock to be spun off to shareholders as of a date I have yet to see specified.

Whether or not to somehow separate the royalty portfolio, which is collateral for a loan, had been a raging debate on another message board I frequent. Apparently the company has decided this is the best way to unlock value.

Considering the attraction of royalty companies in the current market, I am eager to see what impact, if any, this has on the stock beginning Monday. Also I like the timing, coming just ahead of the Cambridge House confab in Vancouver.

Not sure how this could be perceived as bad news. But I've been wrong on that front regarding this stock before, so ..........we shall see.

Thoughts anyone?

Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - 2:45pm (Reply to #126)
kjm
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Just to be accurate, its

Just to be accurate, its splitting off its mine/exploration ( Brewery Creek ) properties in the Yukon.

So if you have 1000 shares of Gpd today, you will have 1000 shares of the royalty company. We don't know yet how many shares of explorco we will end up with.

Thu, Jan 31, 2013 - 4:33pm
T
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another look at kaminak

Kaminak has spent the last several weeks hovering sideways around 1.40-1.50 area

after making a nice rally from the 1 dollar bottom in december.

Ive been waiting, and still waiting to see a further wave down toward the 1.17 area, or maybe even a return to the 1 dollar for a double bottom,as a pullback, ....this is still a target

but on the upside the targets overhead are at the key moving averages on both the daily and weekly chart....and combined wit the trendline tops that come down from the July 2011 top, there is now Massive resistance wall at these moving averages in the 1.75-1.95 zone

If Kaminak decides to make the next rally up, for a few days, to target this area, watch what happens there .

I expect massive resistance and short attacking in that zone. but just watch it. watch to see if it happens . that could be a good indicator of the power still retained by the short attack algos in this rigged game. Its the obvious place technically where big resistance should take place. a show of force from the bears will be telling .

maybe 1 dollar in december was a good bottom for kaminak....now the next test will be in that resistance zone overhead.

The next move should be either down to test 1.15-1.00 or lower

or else a rally up to test 1.75-2 area resistance.

Maybe if spot gold rallies up to test 1710 area, Kaminak will rally up. and if gold drops down to test 1625 area, Kam will fall to test 1.15 it looks like it could be a fair weathervane to watch Kaminak .and the more important moment isnt the rally up to 1.80 area, its what happens after that ,when it hits the massive wall of resistance ,and the sellers attack.

Sat, Feb 2, 2013 - 1:01pm (Reply to #126)
LeeHo
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RE Golden Predator on the move? to a royalty-only company

1/30/2013

Golden Predator’s (GPD-T) decision in late January to transition to a royalty-only mining company and build on its existing base of 34 projects pushed the junior’s shares up 16.7% to 38.5¢ on 2.7 million shares traded

The new company will be called Gold Bullion Royalty and will divest its Brewery Creek gold project and a number of other assets it holds in the Yukon into Golden Predator Canada Corp.

Management said that splitting the business units into separate entities will increase efficiency, visibility, analysis and recognition of asset values that would ultimately provide superior returns to shareholders.

Royalty companies certainly have done well in recent years. A Jan. 17 research report from CIBC’s institutional equity research team, estimated that last year precious metal royalties generated more than 40% higher returns than producers.

“Throughout 2012 the royalty companies shone by generating significant free cash flow, and using that cash flow to make opportunistic and highly accretive royalty acquisitions, including Franco-Nevada’s acquisition of the Cobre Panama stream, and Silver Wheaton’s acquisition of the Constancia stream,” analysts Cosmos Chiu, Barry Cooper and Kevin Chiew wrote, adding that they believe royalty companies will continue to do well this year.

“Early into 2013 we continue to see many producers struggle with managing operational expectations, rising operating costs and capital spending,” they continued. “Given the beneficial characteristics inherent in the precious metal royalty model (i.e. reduced exposure to operating risk and cost, exploration and expansion upside, etc.) we believe the royalties are set to shine once again in 2013.”

As a result the CIBC analysts have raised their 12-18 month price targets on Franco-Nevada (FNV-T, FNV-N) from $62 per share to $65; for Royal Gold (RGL-T, RGLD-Q) from $89 to $92; and for Silver Wheaton (SLW-T, SLW-N) from $45 to $48.

Golden Predator’s existing portfolio includes gross proceeds royalties on Midway Gold’s (MDW-V) Pan and Gold Rock deposits, a 4% gross proceeds royalty on the DTR property at Barrick Gold’s (ABX-T, ABX-N) Bald Mountain mine, and a 1% gross proceeds royalty on land held by Barrick in an area between and around the Bald Mountain and Alligator Ridge mines. The company also holds a 2% net smelter return royalty on Silver Predator’s (SPD-T) Taylor silver project.

Its royalty package on 34 projects spans 40 hectares in North America, primarily in Nevada but also in Wyoming, Oregon, California and Mexico. Most are under lease to a variety of companies including Evolving Gold (EVG-T, EVOGF-O), Orsa Ventures (ORN-V), and others. Its portfolio holds several deeded royalties covering projects of McEwen Mining (MUX-T, MUX-N), NV Gold (NVX-V), and Silver Scott Mines (SILS-O).

Last year the royalty package generated $799,762 in revenue.

The company noted that Gold Bullion Royalty’s portfolio “remains unique in the mineral development industry due to its ability to receive the majority of projected revenues in-kind (gold bullion as opposed to cash), adding that the core of the portfolio was acquired from the Lyle F. Campbell Trust.

It also pointed out that none of its principal royalty projects are subject to any reductions or buy-back provisions. After the divestment, Golden Predator Canada will continue to advance the Brewery Creek project and other Yukon-based properties.

Brewery Creek, 55 km east of Dawson in the northwestern region of the Yukon has indicated resources of 20.4 million tonnes grading 0.89 gram gold per tonne for 581,000 oz. of contained gold and 13 million tonnes at 0.83 gram gold for 346,000 oz. gold in the inferred category.

The company says it expects to update that resource estimate in the first quarter of this year. It also anticipates starting construction of the infrastructure this year and believes the project could enter production in 2014.

Golden Predator acquired 100% of the project last year from Alexco Resource (AXR-T, AXU-X), subject to a 2% net smelter return royalty. Between 1996 and 2002 the property was operated as a heap-leach mine and produced about 280,000 oz. gold, from seven near-surface oxide deposits. It was shut down due to low gold prices.

Over the last year Golden Predator has traded in a range of 27¢ and 86¢ per share and has about 153 million shares outstanding.

After the transaction is closed, shareholders of Gold Bullion Royalty will hold the same percentage interest in Golden Predator Canada as they held in Gold Bullion Royalty Corp.

Golden Predator Canada plans to list its shares on the TSX Venture Exchange or the Toronto Stock Exchange.

https://www.northernminer.com/news/golden-predator-rebrands-shifts-focus-to-royalties/1002032401/

Thu, Feb 7, 2013 - 10:27pm (Reply to #129)
firstsilver
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Analyst likes Golden Predator

Here's one fan of the repackaging...............................

Jennings Capital analyst Kwong-Mun Achong Low initiated coverage Thursday on Golden Predator (TSE:GPD) with a speculative buy rating and a 12-month target price of 65 cents per share, saying the gold company "re-invented" itself.

The re-invention came with the announcement that it would be spinning out its Yukon assets to focus on its royalty assets - a deal where "the sum of the parts is greater than the whole", says the analyst.

"We see significant value in the company, trading at a 57% discount to our NAV [net asset value] of 81 cents," he notes.

Achong Low adds that the assets are "on the cheap", and that he believes the quality of the royalty portfolio could attract the attention of a royalty major, where current trading multiples suggest that Golden Predator's royalty portfolio could be worth as much as $100 million - almost double its current market cap.

The analyst calls the company "as good as gold". "We are impressed with the quality of the near- mid-term royalties including those operated by Barrick Gold and by Midway Gold, a company headed by former Newmont management. We believe this reduces the financing and operational risk of the underlying assets," he says.

Jennings forecasts significant royalty revenue for Golden Predator starting in the second half of 2014, and a more than doubling in royalty revenue from 2015 to 2018.

The Jennings analyst notes that royalties are a rare commodity, as supported by the aggressive acquisition of 60% of Premier Royalty's (TSE:NSR) shares by larger competitor Sandstorm Gold (TSE:SSL) within two months of Premier forming.

"Given this scarcity and strong investor interest in the royalty space, we do not expect Golden Predator to remain undervalued for long," he concludes, adding that now is a good time to get into the stock before the wider investor base realizes the value of the company's new focus.

Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - 5:02pm
scottiepimps59
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GPD a BUY

Get in on GPD before the re-org to get your mining shares for FREE!!!

https://www.stockhouse.com/blogs/viewdetailedpost.aspx?p=158471

Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - 5:09pm
T
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Or, another way to put it .......

another way to put it is .....wait patiently now for Golden Predator to rally back to the 75-80 cent area ....where you bought a boatload last year,and /or the year before......and as soon as it gets you break even....Sell the f- ker and get your money back.

Nice to keep a core at 27 cents though.

Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - 1:29pm
scottiepimps59
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ROYALTIES - NOT JUST AS GOOD

ROYALTIES - NOT JUST AS GOOD AS GOLD, BETTER THAN GOLD!

There's no doubt about it! Royalty companies are the best way to gain exposure to gold... a picture is worth a thousand words (and maybe your dollars, too!)

You could easily buy all 6 gold royalty companies and do very well as evidenced by the chart above. There aren't many players in the royalty space and for good reason. c/o 31Floors on SiliconInvestor:

"There are significant barriers to entry or there'd be 50 today not less than 10. To paraphrase Bill if flubian was the hot commodity today you'd have 200 flubian exploration companies on the Venture next week. Why is there less than 10 royalty companies? Because its tough to get a package together esp now."

Given that the pond is small, the big fish huge and the little fish tiny. Does size matter?

I've recently observed a trend amongst the major royalty companies. The reality is as Lassonde (FNV) says, there aren't any notable deposits of both quality and size to be found. Without those kinds of projects there just aren't many mega deals to be had - deals large enough to tip the scales for these already richly valued royalty companies. The only really profitable deals out there are in the smaller deposits. The aforementioned trend I've observed is that larger, lumbering royalty players are trying to re-capture momentum by gaining exposure through smaller players that can take advantage of the growing small market segment - in the $XX million per deal range. Lassonde's Franco-Nevada (FNV) has allied itself with Gold Royalty Corp (GRO) in a $15m royalty acquisition partnership while Sandstorm Gold (SSL) has purchased a controlling interest in new-comer Premier Royalty (NSR). Royal Gold recently raised $325m and may be positioning itself to partner with a smaller royalty company, just like competitors FNV and SSL.

c/o unlimited_aw:

I think Nolan Watson stated clearly what they want with this strategic relationship:

“Premier Royalty has a base of existing royalties and a strong team that is capable of growth through accretive acquisitions. Owning a significant interest in Premier Royalty gives Sandstorm continued exposure to smaller stream and royalty acquisitions, allowing Sandstorm’s team to focus on transactions that are material to our shareholders. Today’s acquisition is the beginning of a strategic relationship between Sandstorm and Premier Royalty, one that we believe will be beneficial to shareholders of both companies.”

These developments are worth pondering - it's very instructive of where the growth will be concentrated in the royalty sector.

Enter AMERICAS (GOLD) BULLION ROYALTY, currently trading as GOLDEN PREDATOR (T.GPD).

GPD owns a portfolio of 34 high quality royalties, nearly all of which are located in the United States with the bulk of the royalties gross, payable in-kind (gold not paper), and with no buy back provisions. Operators are also of the highest quality, including Barrick and Midway.

CORP PRESENTATION - ROYALTIES

CORP PRESENTATION - EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT

Better Than Gold Royalty Corp (GRO)

EV $22m

GRO's two largest royalties - 0.5% NSR on Metanor's Bachelor Lake and a 1% GSR on Victoria's Eagle. The Bachelor Lake NSR was originally 1%, half was recently bought back demonstrating the importance of having no buy-back provisions in place. My feeling is that GRO is being very optimistic if they expect VIT to be mining gold by 2015. VIT will be lucky if Yukon Energy creates the capacity to support Eagle by 2016. If this company intends to hang it's hat on those two royalties, Good Luck! In any event, I rather generously reflected GRO's 2015 production expectations on the charts that follow.

Better Than Premier Royalty Inc. (NSR)

EV $100m

Over 60% of NSR's royalties are paid in rapidly inflating Argentine Pesos/South African Rands! Venezuela just devalued their currency by over a third and Argentina/SA are in no better of a position. This currency exposure will prove to be a real drag on NSR's balance sheet as GPD's continues to improve, thanks to the in-kind royalties paid on their high quality North American properties. The charts that follow also clearly show NSR with the richest valuation of the three newcomers, further limiting upside.

GPD is set up to provide exceptionally low risk exposure to gold with the most upside. It's not even close!!!

GPD's flagship royalties include a 1% GSR on Barrick's Bald Mountain, 4% GPR on Barricks Duke-Trapper-Royale, as well as a 4% GPR on Midway's Pan and Gold Rock properties, respectively. All of which are takeable in-kind, from projects located in Nevada, with access to infrastructure, a skilled labor-force and well advanced towards production.

I am assuming that GPD's entire EV of $63m is being attributed to just the top 4 royalties with no value given to GPD's high quality exploration or development assets - which features near-term producer Brewery Creek (2H'14) and including the largest land position in the Yukon. I also attribute zero value to the thirty other royalties in the pipeline.

*****GPD's exploration and development assets will be spun off to shareholders in the re-org, FREE! So get in before the re-org!*****

MOST AGGRESSIVE GROWTH PROFILE

BEST VALUE PROPOSITION

Using EV/attributable oz as a simple measure of relative value. GPD is currently being valued at about $17,000 per 2014 attributable oz vs. NSR's $21,000. The difference is clearer the further out you project. GPD is currently being valued at about $7,000 per 2016 attributable oz vs. NSR's $17,000.

Jennings Capital analyst Kwong-Mun Achong Low

"Given this scarcity and strong investor interest in the royalty space, we do not expect Golden Predator to remain undervalued for long," he concludes, adding that now is a good time to get into the stock before the wider investor base realizes the value of the company's new focus"

Data as of 2/8/2013.


Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/blogs/viewdetailedpost.aspx?p=158471#9rR0AYEsYAYlHrEG.99

Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - 1:50pm
T
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Kaminak hits target zone

I was forecasting KAM to pull back to this price zone as a buy target. which means IF we are seeing any bullish wave structure, coming off last december's low at .97 , which topped at 1.65 january 1, and pulls back now to 1.14..... it would need to hold support around here and make the next rally going higher. a bullish wave structure would be 5 waves, this correction, wave 2, would finish above the 1 dollar zone, anywhere from 1 dollar to 1.15 here. upside target now would approach 2 dollars and a pullback, then 2.50 area maybe .

But any breakdown further from here at 1.15 that makes 1 dollar a target, and no show of any strong bounce starts to make a bullish wave structure premature. and could suggest more selling into this summer, with lower targets around 80 cents.

Now is the bullish time for bulls to step in and buy Kaminak if its ever going to establish a bullish momentum and secure a real bottom.

A bearish wave structure, would mean KAM eventually falls below 1 dollar, and continues on down to 80 cent zone and more bleeding. and the 98 cent bottom from last december, proves not the bottom,the wave structure proves not yet bullish. and the bear correction ongoing is correcting off the july 2011 top zone at 4.65, coming from the 2008 crash bottom,.

The next low target zone is around 80 cents and 65 - 45 cents is the bottom zone off the 2008 crash.

What kind of reality is this stock market, to see The DOW and S+P near the 2008 HIGH zone while these miners are falling towards the 2008 crash zones. I must have missed the lesson about 'rotating out of a sector'

The upside target zone now for KAM is the Key moving average area around 1.80-2 dollars. a bottom zone around 1 dollar makes a double at 2.

I personally dont have that bullish gut feeling about buying KAM here at 1.15. Maybe a little at 1 dollar . and more at 80 cents.

The fundamentals on this mining company are supposed to be good. theres no fundamental reason why the share price should collapse lower than this. Thats why I expect it to collapse lower , at least to 1 dollar and a summer bottom at 80 cents.

Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - 6:03pm
T
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.....and the next day....KAM

.....falls down to a dollar.

and ATAC....falls into the zone at 1.28

Maybe in the coming week....spot gold will get near 1600 and silver near 28.50

Fri, Feb 15, 2013 - 10:03pm (Reply to #135)
TheGoodDoctor
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Things have been brutal again

Things have been brutal again today. But I am not worried. This is like buying dollars for pennies. I will nibble on some Kaminak and ATAC as well. Never did I ever think we would see prices like these in the Yukon or in general for the miners. I have stink bids in for my shopping list.

I am a little concerned about the ECB talking down the Euro which would be dollar bullish and stock market/miners/PM's bearish. Keep that in mind folks. BTFD!

I had an idea that the dollar could be forced to go strong for awhile. I mean wouldn't they be able to buy back some gold on the cheap to give back to Germany or whoever else may want to repatriate their gold? Since when has the US bought any gold? When was the last time? Just a thought. Plus, I was thinking that the Europeans want to make vacationing there a bit more palatable as well.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
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