noticed the price action as per Turd podcast..
Looks like Price smackdown is starting on XAU XAG
Not out of the woods quite yet, but I think ok' Turd nailed this one. August should be fun!
Would appreciate any help with your views on timing of the smack down today and maybe tomorrow
I am a newbie trader (since February) still learning and got burnt recently so signed up to Turds site to educate myself fast
I bought some DUST to hedge against JNUG during this volatile week based on Turds blog. It worked well until JNUG leapt yesterday and now want out of DUST
What are other traders expecting and planning for today and tomorrow based on that increase yesterday. Could the price slam come one minute before the market closes or would it be more gradual throughout the day or maybe will start as soon as London closes. Add to that, am I right in assuming that the last two days had great potential for volatility assuming Japan tomorrow is a damp squib.
I know Turd relates the gold price it to much wider facts but assuming they are relatively stable for today and tomorrow I would appreciate any thoughts on how others are dealing with the end of this week.
I agree with forever twenty, and part of knowing how to trade this is understanding how Turd sees his role here. Tons of people start twitching at a day or two knockdown, and TF feels that part of his job is to (1) warn them before this might (might, not necessarily have to) happen, so they don't get too stressed over over the daily churn, and (2) alert people that if there is a smackdown, it might be a good entry point. Now these things may not happen in the broader context of his forecasts- don't go buying DUST just because TF warns there might be impending weakness, you better have a good technical system reason or personal trading system reason of your own to do this. If his warning correlates with your own stuff, then act. But sometimes, he just needs to do this "just in case" to reassure people. It may not be tradable, unless linked to something you yourself have identified.
What is extremely tradable is his bigger picture analysis (daily, weekly, etc), which has been just stellar, forward-looking, and is shaping up to be a really great call. He said op ex in the gold contract would provide a great entry within this gold bull, would be the end to the current pullback/weakness in price, and that the bull would resume with vigor in August once all the junk around contract expiry, fedlines, etc was out of the way. Looks like freaking Nostradamous so far, so if you are on the wrong side of a DUST trade here, you are trying to be way too fine, I think. Cut bait.
Its a bull market. Get on the right side of it, and hold on tight! Don't sweat every pullback or lose your position.
All this is just my opinion, I claim no expertise other than having been beat to shit by the markets over the years
There is a Turdite who posts here anon. who in real life is a big time person in the investing world, VERY well connected guy in the financial industry- international connections, lunches with big$, hedge fund guys with a few billion at their fingers, etc. He knows where the money is flowing, or not flowing. He posted this week here in the comments to indicate that the wider financial world is finally starting to pay attention to gold and silver, and that after our time in the desert, big money is going to start flowing in. This is a guy who is in a position to know. Trust me on this. So with a small number of miners and a huge amount of dollars (you could buy every miner in the entire world for the market cap of just two tech giants alone), if even a little of those guys money starts to come to this sector, then buckle the fuck up. Its gonna get crazy.
Bull market. Get on the right side and hold tight. Don't sweat the small stuff.
Thanks for these replies,
I had balanced my jnug and dust to ride out any fluctuations which worked when jnug went right down. I then sold some of my dust yesterday while jnug was high 255 but am still left with a chunk. I don't mind writing off a loss on what I have left but if I sell it right now and gold then drops another $10 or so dollars and takes Jnug with it then I will struggle to keep my margin
my decision is not to worry about tomorrow but wondered if it would seem more sensible to sell my dust at 1.28pm today EST instead of now which is two hours before that time?
any thoughts on what others have done in a similar situation on expiry day would be great
As an aside I got into trading in February when I told a builder that I was expecting a big crash this year and would be buying Bitcoin. He said forget that and showed mining shares and their graph going back a few years. I immediately bought jnug and nugt at around $50 and made a lot of money quickly. Unfortunately I also bought spxs and then bought more and more expecting a fall. Then in April I met a guy who is a W G Gann expert and is a paid advisor to hedge funds. He called the top in 1987 2000 and 2008. When I told him what I was doing he said he was sorry but the sp500 would be going to 1275 before dropping. after that he thought nuclear war. Watch this space.
and any thoughts on today would be great
The PM sector has turned and now is in the early stages of a new bull run, IMHO! Trying to play a 3X bear going contra the trend is asking to lose money. My two cent worth of advice is study the little junior miners who were totally destroyed over the last several years. Learn what companies are out there and what they are doing now. Call up their IR officers and listen to their pitch and ask questions. Place some money into a basket of them and sit and wait for news and developments coming from them. Add or deduct from your positions as you learn new facts. Watch their chart patterns for what the market is saying about them. Don't fall prey to the hyped up ones that are being pumped on the various pm sites unless you have came to the same conclusions by doing extensive due diligence. I will give you one of my holdings to get you started. The management team, which is an important part in how a company will perform is a critical part of the success equation. The stock that I own is managed by many of the people who discovered Mag silver. They have moved on to a new project. Go due some research on them...Balmoral resources BAR.to and BALMF. Playing in DUST is exactly where this new bull in PM is going to leave you...good luck!
This comes from the nefarious, at least in these parts, Trader Dan. IMO this is some good advice for "nubee" stock traders...
"I have counseled some friends, who are equity guys, not a commodity guy such as I am, to find just a few stocks, study those stocks very closely, learn the fundamentals of that industry and then trade only those stocks. You would be surprised at how closely attuned you can become to how an individual stock moves if you watch it every single day, day in and day out, for a long time. Before long, you develop a sort of instinctive sense of when something is not normal with that stock. This sort of thing is invaluable to becoming successful. More importantly, it will keep you from blindly chasing things you do not understand."