2016 KY derby thread

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Ruffian
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2016 KY derby thread

Ok let me start by saying the fields not set yet. Also that I haven't been paying as much as attention as I have in the past. As lost this will be the third year TBTB declared a derby winner was going to had and the rules were changed. By selecting pointed races instead of cash won it changed the entire complexity and elevated and true speed horses. Which means deep closers are ar a distinct disadvantage as well.

So what we're looking for is stalkers and pressers and of course those few who can wire to wire,

I shall begin with moyahem. After reviewing all his races I'm convinced his post and his trip did him in, he's just a monster work horse and just ripped off a .46 sec 4f breeze - there are sprinters who win races in that time..... But then there is speedy Nyquist who just repelled him last time out. We know tapit easily get 10-12furlongs, we know nothing about uncle mo's as these are his first and as great as they are we have no stats on distance as uncle mo himself was retired before he could show what he had.

Nevertheless I'm positive he's going to get at least 1 1/4 miles. I'm just as sure mo tom will as well. Mo tom had tons in the tank and multiple gears but was impeded by lousy rides. He's much better tan he looks on paper.

Mor spirit... No not an uncle mo but an eskandera with a ton of speed who can rate and is a baffert horse. He is no toss for ur exotics.

Lani .... Dear lord .. If God decided to breed a horse he would have got lani. I've never seen such a pedigree. He's strong willed and lazy tho and does what he wants ...any other horse would have had his nuts whacked off but there is no weakness in his pedigree. He American bred but Japanese owned, trained and raced. What gets them beat here is they don't get our horses run the entire distance. We don't just gear up last part of the race. He made a killer ground covering move in a mere six strides his last out. Yet, trains like a mule. He's got the talent and ability but will he use it in derby day... I dunno but he will be in a few of my exotics.

Shagaf was taken off the trail, then put back in .... Puzzling.... Since they have

Exaggerator, no he's not faster on a dirt track over moyahem or Nyquist but he's a brilliant route runner. He is definitely NOT a toss. I'm very biased towards him as I have history in his pedigree. I know his tale line well and with the right trip he could win but it's more likely on the board against these others.

What I'm doing is trying to whittle down half the field to toss. It's still too early.....

Destin will never beat these top horses straight up and Brody's cause both out of one my fav studs seems to a step slower. But you can toss Brody's bad race as just a clunker.

Whitmore is improving but Iraq Ortiz jumped off him... All u need to know. My man Sam rapidly improving but is it enough....

I'll have more to say as u know I will generally post who you should bet and what I'm likely to bet cuz I always make always bet against the favorite or don't bet at all.

You can count moyahem will stalk the pace if he can draw inside ..... Quite honestly he's the best horse in there and with such a bad race last time. There maybe value betting him. Keep in mind secretariat was NOT the favorite. And I'm wondering if shags for will be used for a hot pace. If they were mine that's what I do .... More to come I reckon

Ruffian
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More on the others

Twirling candy is by far the fastest horse in the race. However, fast alone doesn't win races around two turns pm especially with ones with 20 horses, 

he will be your pace setter most likely. 

Creator surprise winner of AK derby and another grey tapit cannot beat this bunch without a miracle trip or some other interference and neither can gunrunner. Who is progressing nicely bu he's not there yet, 

interesting to me was the runner up to Nyquist in the FL derby. On the gallop out I was like who the EFFF is that 4-5 furlong ahead of Nyquist and it's the maiden majesto..... He's gonna be a huge price and I'll have him in my exotics ....but he could be a black swan. I can't get his past races and gps figures so I can only say what I saw. If he's close to the rail he's on the board but Nyquist is just too tuff to let him go by unless he gets hurt going for position. 

Mor spirit turned in a bullet.... That means he was fastest clocked of the day and he does have wicked speed. He seemed to dislike oaklawn deep dirt and it slowed him. Then again being trained by baffert he might have used it as tightner with no real intent of going for the win unless it was easy. 

This field is full of deep closers and I doubt they will get the speed up front to close from too far back. They all seem pretty fairly matched. But who the hell knows when your picking horses who used to run 4-5 preps and they are only running 2. 

All I know is I hate this format. It's forced me to use gps for comparison. Tbtb got a triple winner but they didn't get an affirmed or a secretariat. In fact only secretariat could pull off the deep close and up front speed duel. 

Fields not confirmed yet...I'm debating tossing lani cuz of his stupid interval training and complete lack of control but he's got an engine but I've yet to see him on the muscles..... So I'll be watching the post parade and the tote .... 

I do favor Nyquist but roi will be pathetic .... A ready moyahem appears to be his real competition. Should be a battle of the wills if no one gets in the way....

but my dad used to say ask me a year or two later how good they are cuz you never know what will happen during the race. The best doesn't always win. How true. 

Oh, oh, oh. My favorite horse racing now is Bens Cat a 10 year old coming off a six month layoff to win his 20th. These iron horses are the ones I love best. He so reminds me of my ED. I'm thrilled to see him and scared to see him go down, one to two more old boy and I hope they pull your shoes for the last time  in front of your fans. He's done enough! 

Ruffian
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Oh one more thing

comment made to me off the board. 

there is NOTHING glamorous about racing. It's politics, blood sport and heart break. 

Yeah, yeah you get to meet people you read about and movie stars show up on derby day but it's cutthroat sport like all pro sports. 

Pits exciting and glamorous for two minutes and one major owner who will be well represented in derby made his fortune on payday loans ... He's charismatic and throws great parties on the tears of desperate people. 

Otherwise it's dirt, sweat, tears, unbearable heat, freezing cold, shit and urine and non stop work and that's the fun part. 

But it is the only place 16 yr old girl can beat the owner of a baseball team. 

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Hi Ruffian

Just curious, in this KY Derby thing, do I use the jelly or the liquid?  So confused...

Turd Ferguson
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That time of year again

Hi, Ruffian.

I know it's a big field....and I know that the pace looks to set up at 0:23 and 0:46...BUT...that move by Exagerator in the SA Derby was epic. So clearly the best horse that it reminded me of AP in last year's AK Derby.

Going with Exagerator and hoping to get a price.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/santa-anita-derby

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Craig

I'd be happy as hell to see exaggerator win for many reasons. Mainly his granddam  sire was my own BUT ....

the santa Anita derby was illusion we often see in racing. He looked like he was going so forward so well because the others were backing up to him after a hot pace. 

If you look at his past performances this was the first time Exag  sat off the pace - some 17 lengths if I recall.  Now by using trackus.... Nyquists finish doesn't look as good or as impressive but it's much more so as he comes home  going about 2mph faster and keep in mind he was cutting the fractions the entire way. He was traveling faster than Exag at all points in the race. 

If the desormouex brothers plan a deep close strategy  they better pray for faster fractions and rain.    Exag is an excellent route runner. But 23 and 46 are modest for this class. 

But he cannot beat Nyquist without help. Everyone is assuming Nyquist has peaked and the others are improving. I see no evidence of this at all. 

Byw I believe Santa Anita has trackus on its website ...if not Google lani in the uae derby and that's a brilliant turn of foot with extended acceleration. 

Will know more after PP draw! 

Most of them will be doing blow outs next 2 days that will say much. N

edit: I suspect shadwell will use shagaf as a rabbit to engage mor spirit and Nyquist.... Maybe not....but he was withdrawn and then reentered. That could set it up for closers but Nyquist can take dirt and bumps with the best of them. 

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AG

Depends what ur planning on doing with it hehe ? 

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American Pharoah

I'm the heretic of the industry..... Beautiful efficient movement .... Push button ... But I don't believe he belongs with the greats. 2xs he faced adversity once he almost lost and the 2x he did lose.  Very, very good horse- great horse ? Not in my book. 

Hes his fathers son ...and would have fared the same under the old rules. 

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Lani

 

ignore the the times. It's complicated but we don't start our timers until a run up. Overseas they time from the gate opening. 

I can only guess what this horse would be capable of with an American trainer. He won't get away this misbehavior in the derby but sheesh what a horse ... 

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Posting this

cuz I love it and proves why secretariat is legend and AP is just a very good horse. 

First secretariat was a big fat cow that couldn't spring out of the gate cuz of his size. He was long and wide and would have cracked his hocks if he accelerated quickly. But he could win sprints...and in this race he did against the best generation and still had a mile to go just running against himself . 

Enough see great from very good! 

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Exaggerator workout

cant tell a thing from this. What you want to look for to step into the trainer and horses mind is the position of the riders leg from knee to foot. Note the rider is perfectly straight meaning he's not urging the horse or pulling back on him, he's just letting him run however he wants. Then you will note the position changes and he's angled slightly backward indicating a slow down. Then abruptly his leg moves forward to urge him. It's only at that point the horse slightly pins his ears indicating effort. But it's a workout and he stands up in irons to slow him, at that point I like to see a horse out his ear pricked straight up to say is that it ??? And his gallop out was slow. 

Comclusion : dint like it or dislike it ... It just told me nothing about his condition, 

but keep in mind he races best from mid pack... And his dam is out of Seattle slews fastest son. 

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On the other hand

This is moyahem a stalker... Person I'd have had a fit letting him go that quick.... 

But note he won't unpinn his ears until his gallop out is over .... He's saying is this ALL??? Downside is he needs to draw in 

im convinced lani the other tapit is either injured or nuts ... Then again note how tapits are and moyahem is a well behaved tapit , lani is not. 

Its gonna take a few sheckels to hit this race cuz they are so evenly matched. 

Im gonna try to beat him but Nyquist has out dueled every horse in the stretch he's met even when he's been beat and beat up. He's a special one .... His only drawback is he hates horses out side of him. One of my tickets will have another uncle mo on top - mo tom. His drawback is his rider and it's a big one. 

This on the other hand is a terrific workout by sudden breaking news...... He could upset the field with any kinda pace .... But I still think Nyquist would out duel him and I'm sticking by that until proven otherwise . Note his slow gradual start. Then he goes into gear about 2 furlongs and keeps accelerating faster... He's not tired at all. 

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Unbelievable

post positions drawn and only the harm was to the 1 an 20.... The others all drew very well for their style.... Although exagerrator needs to worry about lani beside him. 

Keep in mind if ur not in position by the first 1/8th your not winning... It's a race within a race because of the run up. 

I can't show you Nyquists gallop cuz those arseholes at Churchill got tight with their stream. But the wagering opportunities on Friday and Saturday are incredible. 

Also other horseman noticed what I did about majesto but I think he will still be 30/1 at post time. He's confirming his run with his workouts too

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Can't eliminate these

Nyquist, creator, sudden breaking news, Brody's cause, majesto, my man Sam for the win

exaggerator, lani, mo tom, moyahem mor spirit For my second tier.

Based entirely on distance of of more than a mile fractional closing times and their workouts.

Now, I just gotta figure how to arrange them cheap which seems impossible right now.... I might have to wait to see how they act in the post parade.

Exaggerators trainer and jock both said they want him last. Means they are anticipating a hot pace....

I hate bob baffert but he is funny sometimes. He said the walk over with lani and the drunk fans it's gonna be like a trump rally.

Hmmm a big congrats to Jon servis team for winning the oaks. He was smarty jones trainer and a good man.

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Wow

well this was a first for me. 

I didn't bet anything. No matter how the race set up I couldn't see Nyquist getting beat unless he fell down. Didn't matter if he took the lead or not. So I bet nothing. Which is good cuz to cover I'd have ended up losing money as the payouts were the worst I've ever seen personally. 

Also ive been saying for a year... He looks them in the eye and goes on by. Lani and creator got crushed and shagaf was pulled up. I have no idea what happened yet. 

It really doesn't matter. He has that special thing we have no word for. You can see it in all the great ones eyes. 

Oh and btw he earned that win. No one had to beat him 36 times to go forward. Excellent race...

Spartacus Rex
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@ Ruffian...

Ruffian wrote:

well this was a first for me. 

...

Thank heavens the head hedges what the heart hopes for! laugh

BTW,

Junior can Pound Sand & Retire, that rookie choker, F.C.O.L., Seriously?!

Cheers,

S. Rex

question
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Just Beautiful

watching poetry in motion

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Learn to behave

Ruffian
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@SR & Q

Horrible, horrible ride Jr gave that animal.  Lani is going to the Preakness. I really wanna see him run his race. Destin knocked him badly kicked him back 5l. It was over for him before it began. 

Bunch of new ones going after Nyquist in the Preakness. Baffert has a serious one named collected that's going, mor spirit did very well considering her flipped his palate he's done till after summer at least. 

Kent D gave exaggerator a fab ride. He could made it closer but he realized he was out of room so he stood up. He always done that when he can't beat them. I'd have loved seeing him win after Jerry Bailey and nbc did a shit piece on him. Especially since Bailey rode loaded as hell but got away with it

Q - yes it is poetry In motion ...... 

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