I am creating this thread for anyone interested in analysis for the 60/120/240 minute Silver charts.
Here is the current 240 minute Silver Chart. We look to be breaking up thru the trendline channel at 36.20. This is the channel which kisses from beneath the Head & Shoulders patterns it dropped thru on 13 June. The pattern did not drop down to a level that would have confirmed the H&S, so perhaps we are in a falling wedge pattern. See link for info about this pattern:
IF we are indeed in a falling wedge, then we should expect major resistance at next resistance which is at 36.50 which is the TOP of the falling wedge trendline (e for the 31 May and 10 June peaks). Expect strong resistance there.
We have had more than a week of boring action, but TIME will force PRICE to move one way or another.
Thanks.. Look forward to reading more of your thoughts!
Most helpful thanks :)
If we hit resistance at 36.50 or so, then we might see a drop ahead to form a new LOWER Low below the 14 June Low.
The shorter time frame (between 14 to 21 June) channel is a RISING Wedge which is bearish.
Always appreciated your charts and analysis, nice to have a dedicated
place to find them. Thanks!
All roads Lead to Rome---different methods of analysis can often confirm each other. Price has been ranging between these two Gann angles (which are the trendlines I drew in previous charts) according to Gunner24:
Here is JW's latest:
$$$ THE SILVER PRICE HAS WITHSTOOD A MAJOR ASSAULT ON COMMODITY PRICES. THE IMPACT ON CRUDE OIL IS MUCH WORSE. SILVER IS PROVING IT IS NOT JUST AN INDUSTRIAL METAL, BUT A RESERVE METAL, A MONETARY METAL. THE BUILT BASE FOR A PRICE RALLY IS ALMOST FINISHED. THE SECOND HALF OF 2011 WILL BE MARKED BY A STRING OF NEW HIGHS. A FALL TO THE 30 LEVEL IS THE WORST CASE OUTLOOK, BUT IT WOULD CHANGE NOTHING. $$$
Thank You ; Your charts are a big help.
Here are the updated charts:
The 240 minute chart below shows that we are currently testing SUPPORT near 36.30. Note how PRICE is sitting/consolidating above the pink 21ema AND the trendline
The 120 minute chart below confirms the 240 chart above, but now also shows that there is a resistance line (should see some selling when we reach it) at 36.70. You can see there is an UPTHRUST (spike candle) just below it which suggests there is some resistance there.
The 60 minute chart below shows that we broke above the channel we were in over the last week and is now TESTING it as SUPPORT. There is a stick in the mud at the upper trendline though just ahead. When PRICE AND TIME meet ahead later in the day (where the two lines meet/cross, we may see some action (Down?) which would confirm the FALLING WEDGE discussed in earlier updates.
The 60 minute chart below shows that we are currently working within a channel, and are sitting on the lower channel line. Do we get a bounce or a break?
One could also say the 30 minute pattern is a RISING WEDGE as shown below. A break DOWN either way would not be bullish action. Any EE action here could create some real selling and price drops.
Good work, can't get a tighter channel than we're in at the moment. 5 cent range over the last few hours... probably blow one way or the other. Odds are it will be down I think.
We haven't had a good old raid in a while!
Gold just broke up Big in £'s. Could bode well for Silver too!
@HIHO Can you estimate a probability of silver
Reaching low 30's (say 30-32) before
We climb above 40 again. Could you
Hazzard a guess at when this might Take place, or alternatively give an
Approximation of when we may hope
To be beyond that 'danger zone' ?
Does the price in other currencies really matter?
These prices are just based on currency fluctuations, isn't the 'spot' price the key factor?
Genuine question, I'm still learning!
Break up through all time Highs!
I don't think anyone can predict future movements, especially in this manipulated market. Physical demand is EXTREMELY bullish and a disconnect could happen any time.
The manipulated PAPER market still rules the price of silver.
Listen to all the Eric King interviews (especially Sprott, Turk, Sinclair, Griffiths) which can be found here:
These guys have their finger on the pulse of the physical market. IT IS TIGHT. So predicting future movements up/down are difficult...especially with all the Greek, Irish, Portugual (not to mention US) problems. Demand from China, India and CB's make supply even tighter. We are on the precipice...and as Turk says, we could ZOOM up ANY time.
Overall, I HOPE price goes down, so I can LOAD the truck...BUT do not count on it. The best thing to do is to buy here in amounts you can SLEEP well with and yet BENEFIT from on a move up. You should hope to buy lower. ALWAYS BUY FEAR and BLOOD. Never Buy a breakout.
One other thing---Gold is LEADING Silver right now. Gold is STRONGER. Turd BOUGHT LAST NIGHT for this reason. Gold first, then Silver.
Great charts and commentary hi-ho, I'm bookmarking this thread and tipping the hat to ya.
Prices in different currencies DO matter. It all depends on what currency you purchased your gold/silver with. PRICE moves within a particular currency are the RESULT of the DEVALUATION that that currency is going through. The £ has just broken to All Time Highs which shows that the currency is being devalued in some way, and for SOME reason (Greek exposure?). EDIT: Just found this news: Britain could be hit with losses of up to £366billion from the collapse of the Greek economy, it has emerged. Danny Gabay, of Fathom Financial Consulting, which calculated the figure using data from the Department of Business, said: 'It's not the direct loan that’s the problem, it's the derivatives of those loans which can go on to be multiples of the actual original size of the loan,” reports the Daily Mail.
If your SAVINGS are held in physical gold in £'s (as I do), you will be very happy because while every one elses £'s are LOSING value (because they do not own or save in terms of physical) the costs of every day items are RISING like a CANCER. While we gold owners are NOT losing value. We are PRESERVING our WEALTH.
The same goes for holders of gold/silver in $US, Euros etc.
However, those owning their Gold in $AUS or SEK have not seen their gold rise in value because their economies are strong. (ie No devaulation)
Here is the $AUS. It's not moved much in FIVE YEARS, has it? They are RAISING their interest rates as we all should, BUT ARE NOT. There is a race to devalue currencies against each other. The £ is winning so far, but the $, Euro are catching up. The $AUS is rich in natural resources, and therefore a strong economy (trade with China etc). Their STRONG currency is a result of that:
Here is a comparison between the $AUS and the £ FIVE year charts. Spot the difference?
Thanks for the explanation, never looked at it like that.
I better get buying phyz.
This Money Week article explains far better than what I did above regarding devaluation/inflation:
"The Greek government won its confidence vote. In case you missed it, prime minister George Papandreou had demanded that parliament back his government amid turmoil over austerity measures.
This was a foregone conclusion of course, which explains why the euro actually fell in the immediate aftermath.
No sane politician calls a vote of confidence unless they know they’re going to win it. It’s a theatrical call to arms, rather than a genuine career risk.
Of course, if Papandreou had lost the vote, it could have been very nasty. But his victory hardly means the eurozone is saved (again). There are still some very significant hurdles to jump.
So what happens now?
Greek citizens have no faith in their government
The Greek prime minister might have the confidence of his government. But the Greek people clearly don’t have faith in any of them.
The Greeks have been pulling money out of their bank accounts. The FT reports that €30bn was pulled out of accounts last year, “equivalent to 12.3% of total savings”. In the first three months of this year, savers pulled out €1.5-€2bn a month.
What have they been doing with the cash? As the FT notes, “sales of gold coins have soared as savers seek a safe and fungible source of value”. Others have put their money into land, both here and abroad (where do you think all the money pumping up central London property is coming from?). But the downside with land is that it’s not very liquid if you need to raise funds in an emergency.
As my colleague Merryn Somerset Webb pointed out in her blog the other day, Greek citizens are taking the only sensible option. If Greece was to leave the euro and return to the drachma, anyone with savings in its banks would see their holdings devalued overnight.
It’s a very clear illustration of why gold is worth holding in your portfolio. What else can you do when you don’t trust paper money or the people who issue it? Gold’s primary use is not as a commodity, or even as a currency. It’s insurance. Like any form of insurance, there are times when it is expensive, and times when it is cheap. But if you want to be prepared for the worst, it’s always worth having a portion of your wealth invested in it.
There is no way out without defaulting
So what’s worrying the Greeks? Same thing that’s worrying everyone else. There’s no way they can get out of the debt hole they’re in. It’s too big, as my colleague David Stevenson pointed out last week: What happens when Greece finally goes bust?
Everyone knows this. But no one is yet taking steps to do anything about it. For now, it’s still about ‘extend and pretend’. Papandreou has to go through the charade of pushing another austerity package past the government next week.
Otherwise, say the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), they won’t get the next batch of funds from the original bail-out package. Greece needs that €12bn in loans by mid-July, or else it will default.
But playing for time like this merely makes things worse. You can see why everyone involved is doing it. Facing up to a default will be messy and difficult. All parties, from the banks, to the European Central Bank, to politicians, have vested interests to protect. Lots of them are worried that if Greece goes bust, then they’ll be bust too.
However, the longer this goes on for, the more likely a nasty surprise becomes. What if Papandreou doesn’t manage to push the austerity package through? What if the voters in other eurozone countries decide enough is enough? What if Portugal or Ireland, or worse still, Spain, decide it’s time to push for a better deal while everyone is preoccupied with Greece?
One of the most sensible things I’ve read on the whole sorry topic of Greece is in a letter to the FT this morning. It comes from Poland’s former finance minister, Grzegoz W. Kolodko. He speaks from experience, having worked with creditors to write down Poland’s debt in the 1990s.
His point is that private investors can’t hope to get away without taking a hit. But if they take it now, then they can help negotiate the reforms that will help Greece become a much better economy.
“It is already a ‘credit event’… the choice is between inevitable restructuring by design or by chaos. It goes without saying that the latter will be much dearer.”
Prepare your portfolio for a Greek default
We can’t know how the Greek debacle is going to turn out. There are too many variables involved. Things usually have to get really bleak before all parties involved decide it’s time to co-operate. So I can see the situation getting messier before it gets better.
A messy Greek default clearly would be bad news for the euro. Depending on how messy it gets, it could also shake the global financial system quite drastically. You’d hope that after Lehman Brothers in 2008, they’d be better prepared this time.
But there’s no guarantee. Judging by the resistance to reform, it’s pretty clear that your average banker isn’t really that bothered about risk management as long as they’re getting a nice bonus. After all, the government will pick up the pieces – they always have done in the past. That’s moral hazard for you. In any case, keep hold of gold as insurance against anything really nasty coming down the line.
Meanwhile, British investors are suffering from our very own version of ‘extend and pretend’: the Bank of England keeps interest rates low to protect the indebted while the rest of us get ground down by inflation.
By Kerin Hope
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
ATHENS -- Greek citizens are emptying savings accounts and buying gold as they brace themselves for the possibility of a sovereign default and a run on the banks.
Pledges by socialist prime minister George Papandreou that his government would "save the country" have been widely discounted by the public. However, parliament gave him a vote of confidence late on Tuesday night. The socialists have a six-seat majority in the 300-member house.
Sales of gold coins have soared as savers seek a safer and fungible source of value.
"When the global financial crisis started, our sales of coins to investors overtook bullion for the first time," said Harry Krinakis, at Sepheriades, a Greek precious metals trader. "Now the sales ratio has reached five to one."
Tomas, a computer technician, has exchanged his euro savings for gold coins: "I keep them at home just like my grandmother did in the Second World War."
Monthly bank withdrawals were running at E1.5 billion-E2 billion in the first quarter. Last year, depositors withdrew E30 billion, equivalent to 12.3 per cent of total savings, according to the central bank. Greek deposits worth an estimated E8 billion were transferred to banks in Cyprus in 2010. But the flow has dried up this year amid fears that Cypriot banks could suffer contagion.
Andreas, a supermarket manager, transferred the family savings to Munich earlier this year. "The Swiss banks aren't interested unless youâ€™ve got several hundred thousand euros," he said.
"We can't trust the politicians to get us out of this mess [and] have to protect our families," said Sakis, a garage owner, at an anti-austerity protest in Athens' Syntagma Square. "A bank collapse has got to be in the cards." He added he had withdrawn his savings and placed them in a bank safe deposit box "for security. Who cares about interest right now?"
Others put their savings into land when prices fell after Greece's first European Union-led rescue last year. Angelos, a software specialist, bought a neighbour's olive grove. "I grabbed the opportunity," he said. "A year ago I wouldn't have considered making such an old-fashioned investment."