Debunking all of this silver bs

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daveyboy
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Debunking all of this silver bs

Another year, the world on fire and silver and gold do fuck all, oh no, sorry, I lied, they have fallen.

They have fallen because oil has fallen, oil has fallen because demand has fallen, oil makes up a significant part of the miners hence the reason why they haven't all gone bankrupt.

Ah, but the premiums, they will detach from the spot price...annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd again, I am calling BULLSHIT on that too. What do I see when I go onto APMEX today, ah yes, any quantity of silver philharmonics for 16.10, oh yes, that is the runaway price they have been calling for. What's that? it's a sale? hmmm sales are rolled out to stoke demand, which means that demand is not there!

What's that? China is slowing down, but but the ASE's, yes, the ASE's which are just a damn brand. You can buy buffalo rounds for 99 cents over spot, does that strike you as a silver shortage? lol, we have been conned.

The con is on two levels, firstly there is the deliberate, cynical and exploitative practice of sharks trying to always suggest that people buy more silver which by the way has left a lot of people financially crippled and then there is the con of the public still buying into the con game. 

Then there is this ridiculous bullshit which has been banded around that a) the central banks would never again raise rates and if they did even a quarter of a percent would be too much. I am willing to bet that the central banks raise interest rates again within the next 2 years.

Then of course there has been the deliberate tactic of ignoring and smearing those who expressed doubts about the price strength/demand as shills. Yet the "shills" have been spot on and then you ask who is a shill for who?

Then of course there is this ridiculous bullshit austrian crap that deflation is impossible because the money supply hasn't contracted....meanwhile in planet reality there is vast debt destruction, there is far less disposable income, there is nowhere where capital can flow to which represents real growth, consequently demand is dropping and lo and behold, prices are falling. Yet this "golden" austrian premise has been used to justify why silver would never be seen at $30 again, okay, never be seen at $26 again, $22? errr nope, surely not lower than $20, okay, definitely it will hold at $18!.

Remember the cost of production, that was going to stop prices from falling any further ....hmmm yeah, another fallacy. Now I know what you are thinking, oh he is bitter, you are damn right I am!. I bought into this bullshit from 2011 to 2013, then I realised it was bullshit but then bought into the notion that it would run it's course and find a reasonable platform on which to slowly rise again....hmm not so much.

The final insult of course is the following......"the price is irrelevant" okay, let's destroy that sick joke of a statement, if you bought silver at $40 then you have lost over 70% of your purchasing power, but wait, it gets worse, if we are to believe and I have no reason to doubt that living costs are rising at a steady 5-6% minimum, then your purchasing power has decreased by in excess of 80%. Ah yes they say but when it rises again......when it rises again, it won't mean shit if it's rising because there is a new inflation bubble, you will still have destroyed your purchasing power.

I am not using Craig as an example here because he has said explicitly that you should only be investing a fairly small percentage of your savings into this, but that is not the message you hear from countless other silver sharks and con men who have basically been parading as heroic samaritans ready to take your money to save with you metal in return, oh how sweet of them.

zman
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There is no paper

There is no paper manipulation, just the manipulation of silver investors.  As we approach the 5 year point of this -70% crash, many are finally waking up to the fact that they have been suckered. 

Some of promoters (not Turd) did know they were selling BS nonsense, other promoters truly didn't know any better, the thing that makes this so sad is that these promoters never admit they were WRONG about anything, it's always blame the FED, the Comex,  the banks, ect.  They can't take responsibility for being wrong.   

When you point of that the CRB commodity index has crashed and is trading at a 15 year low, so it only makes sense that silver trades at $13 oz today, some silver bulls still think it's going to $100 oz any day now!!   The fact of the matter is most retail investors do NOT understand basic economics,  sad but true.

With all that being said, could gold trade at $2000 oz in the next 5 years?   Yes it's possible, but things would have to change.   Have you noticed that you haven't heard the word "inflation" from the PM bulls in the past 2 years, I wonder why!!  LOL!

ltcolkilgore
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I used to feel your pain...

Anyone that believes you can gain any insight into future price movement of silver by processing the data we have today is just kidding themselves. I stack for the future as I have been doing for over 20 years and will continue to do so whenever I have the spare cash. I would rather stack than keep my extra money in an account that makes no interest or has the potential to lose money. Although the cash value of my stack may change I have never lost any of my silver, it is all still there. That may not make a lot of sense to anyone else but I am comfortable with this situation, I'm in it for the long haul, if you aren't, you may need to reevaluate your position and make some tough decisions. frown

__________________

Blessed be the Lord my strength which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight: My goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust...
Psalm 144

Wy So Lo
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Silver bullshit

I have had my worst year ever, by far, in pretty much every way. I have however still managed to add a pile. Zman points to the obvious and silver points right back. Silver says i am here for a short while, one billion ounce supply deficit in ten years has guaranteed that. In spite of the industrial slowing my sales are growing. Mine supply has turned lower while demand has held. Even with declining prices my popularity is so high that they have to create  hundreds of millions of fictional silver  oz to convince the market that i am indeed still available. As the commodity prices continue to slide i am trapped in a terminal supply decline and the only cure i have is higher prices. Within months i will be trading at the price that is solely determined by the physical market and that price will be staggeringly high. Gold's volatile little brother is taking over the show and is ready to party, are you?...

silverwood
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silver investor suckers

zman wrote:

There is no paper manipulation, just the manipulation of silver investors.  As we approach the 5 year point of this -70% crash, many are finally waking up to the fact that they have been suckered. 

Some of promoters (not Turd) did know they were selling BS nonsense, other promoters truly didn't know any better, the thing that makes this so sad is that these promoters never admit they were WRONG about anything, it's always blame the FED, the Comex,  the banks, ect.  They can't take responsibility for being wrong.   

When you point of that the CRB commodity index has crashed and is trading at a 15 year low, so it only makes sense that silver trades at $13 oz today, some silver bulls still think it's going to $100 oz any day now!!   The fact of the matter is most retail investors do NOT understand basic economics,  sad but true.

With all that being said, could gold trade at $2000 oz in the next 5 years?   Yes it's possible, but things would have to change.   Have you noticed that you haven't heard the word "inflation" from the PM bulls in the past 2 years, I wonder why!!  LOL!

OMG, You are so RIGHT zman!

Not only were all the silver investor duped into investing in silver so were all the mining people who invested into development of silver deposits. Little did they know that silver is not really worth much compared to other things. Look how they ramped up production of silver much of it coming from those stupid copper, zinc and lead miners. What a bunch of idiots! They spend untold amounts thinking that the world would need their stuff. Now only stock and bond as so valuable. 

daveyboy
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"Within months" eh?Even Mike

"Within months" eh?

Even Mike Maloney is saying "silver could go to $7 I don't know"

"However I expect within 1-2 years the deflation will have played itself out"

So Mike at a time in which war could potentially play out in a major way you expect deflation to be occurring? Ah, so much for the great insurance then eh.

Which means that potentially all of those suckers who bought into silver at $40 (myself included as I bought at this level among other levels) may, just may have nominally got their money back within another .....oh I don't know, let's say 5 years!

It's great to invest in something which may give you your money back after 10 years.

So then with that said, it now becomes a vicious circle because now to bring down the average cost of the silver I bought, I must, yep, keep buying.

So they (the sharks) screw you at both extremes, at the lows.....it's oh this is a wonderful opportunity to buy silver cheap, or to reduce your average cost of silver purchased by buying at these lows and at the higher end "ignore the price folks, this baby is only going higher, you will regret it if you don't buy now"

Yet, these same pumpers especially the rich ones, you can be sure have been using their own personal fortunes to short the daylights out of silver when it was over $40 meanwhile telling you to buy.

I will be explicit who I believe the real sharks to be by explicitly listing the ones i don't believe are sharks....David Morgan, Craig and ermmmmmm, yeah, that's probably it.

zman
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Wy So Lo wrote: I have had my

Wy So Lo wrote:

I have had my worst year ever, by far, in pretty much every way. I have however still managed to add a pile. Zman points to the obvious and silver points right back. Silver says i am here for a short while, one billion ounce supply deficit in ten years has guaranteed that. In spite of the industrial slowing my sales are growing. Mine supply has turned lower while demand has held. Even with declining prices my popularity is so high that they have to create  hundreds of millions of fictional silver  oz to convince the market that i am indeed still available. As the commodity prices continue to slide i am trapped in a terminal supply decline and the only cure i have is higher prices. Within months i will be trading at the price that is solely determined by the physical market and that price will be staggeringly high. Gold's volatile little brother is taking over the show and is ready to party, are you?...

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/SilverMarketin2015_InterimReport.pdf

Let's look at the facts instead of making a bunch of generalizations.

2015-  Mine production up 0.3%.   Total supply -3.3%.   Industrial -4.1%.  Physical demand -2.5%.  Coins and bar 1.5%.

Physical silver demand down YOY-  China -32.2%,  India -22.9%.

"be trading at the price that is solely determined by the physical market"

Like today, the numbers speak the truth, demand is down.

"price will be staggeringly high"

Based on what?   Mine supply is still 15% HIGHER than 2011.   The numbers to not justify anything "staggeringly high", or maybe hitting 18-21oz is high to you.

silverwood
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So... should we be stacking silver?

SUPPLY SUMMARY  from The Silver Institute - 2015 Interim Report 

  • We estimate that mine supply peaked in 2015 and will trend lower in the foreseeable future

  • Supply from scrap is expected to stabilize around 2015 levels in the medium term

  • The hedge book remains at low levels and hedging is not forecast to return to the market in strength

  • Government sales are not expected to be a feature of the market in the years ahead

  • Declining total supply is expected to be a key driver of annual deficits in the silver market going forward 

  • *** so let me get this straight declining total supply for deficits going forward, meaning not enough silver, right? So where will the silver come from? And demand will be falling as far as the eye can see into the future right? The miners can just flip on the production switch right? Based on this you should expect silver price to continue to fall right?* I'm just to happy to debunk this silver stacking scam!***

Wy So Lo
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Zman

Silver was taken to $50 in 1980 by the efforts of three billionaires, the equivalent of $600 today. The value of the physical market  is 14 billion in a world where there are now 2000 billionaires, looking for yield. How long will it take for just one of these people to say lets scrape up whats left of the physical and see what happens when nobody can buy it anymore. I can tell that the emotional bottom is in and there has never been a better time to squeeze the silver market higher. Once it starts it will be something that we will talk about for the rest of our lives. This is what tptb already know is coming.     http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/   That  my friends is why i am so totally confident that it will happen and soon, very soon.

mastercylinder
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silver sellers versus silver linings

I bought into this bullshit from 2011 to 2013, then I realised it was bullshit but then bought into the notion that it would run it's course and find a reasonable platform on which to slowly rise again....hmm not so much.

It's a  salutary bit of personal confession that you returned to the poisoned well even after discovering it to be just that. It was probably the normal reaction for anyone underwater at that point - seek out talking points which served to reassure one that they had not totally screwed up by getting into silver in the first place. And once hooked on smoking from that hookah of hopey/changey hokum, to be carried along on the tides of daily drivel from those talking their books to an eager audience of equally disconsolate duffers. Welcome to the Hotel Coinifornia cult. One of the weirder hostels I've slept in during the pilgrimage to freer vistas.

Bitterness, however, is not the only plausible reaction. Silver, it needs be noted, has not changed a bit in the interim. Still the same shiny metal, with the same markets. Those who have been granted the spotlight in analyzing it's performance in those markets are to be distinguished from the metal itself. They have uniformly tarnished themselves - via misinformed theories, incorrect predictions and a uniform inability to ever admit to error. Though it may be hard to accept, it also needs noting that no one was ever forced to believe those sick puppies - the slavery to their slick salesmanship was all voluntary in nature.

Accepting that one has been naive, complicit even, in their own misfortune, does not require any abandoning of the original impulse to get into the asset class. If you felt it to have had merit when you first got in, your felt instinct may well have been right! Sticking to it - along with abandoning the consensus trance storyline which has been so unctuously welded onto the metal itself, allows one to give up all the emotional entanglements and simply get on with forming a life around that basic decision. Most holders of the precious metals will end up as bagholder victims of those who preyed upon their trust and need for 'leaders.' Some very few, willing to do their own analysis, and take radical decisions without fear or remorse will perhaps escape that end. Those who don't like those odds were probably unwise to have taken up with the shiny stuff in the first place. Silver eats its own young - it would seem. 

For many, if not most of us, the original impulse had something to do with a sense of impending social meltdown - that things were not sustainable on the present course, and would at some point require thinking so far outside the box as to  render everyone unwilling to fundamentally change their own course to be pretty much toast. Nothing we've seen in the past five or so years has altered the grounds for that perception. Nor does the realization that most of one's 'best friends' who were 'only trying to help the little guy' were little more than paid or blackmailed shysters in the service of a huge con mean that the world need fade into a haze of recrimination and remorse. 

Looked at that way, the past five years have been invaluable training for growing up - and realizing that nobody...NOBODY... is out there looking after you. You looking after you is the only game which will pull you out of the category of roadkill and possibly into the winner's circle. Developing a lifestyle which can accommodate huge social dislocations is part of you looking after you. Who would have thought back in 2010-2011 that we would have had five years to organize that kind of personal transformation and shift of priorities? If the opportunity granted by that interval was not availed, and a transformation from follower to independent actor not achieved, then perhaps bitterness truly is the only reaction left to a body. Seems awful late in the day to be just getting started now. 

"The final insult of course is the following......"the price is irrelevant" okay, let's destroy that sick joke of a statement, if you bought silver at $40 then you have lost over 70% of your purchasing power

What's that? China is slowing down, but but the ASE's, yes, the ASE's which are just a damn brand. You can buy buffalo rounds for 99 cents over spot, does that strike you as a silver shortage? lol, we have been conned.

The con is on two levels, firstly there is the deliberate, cynical and exploitative practice of sharks trying to always suggest that people buy more silver which by the way has left a lot of people financially crippled and then there is the con of the public still buying into the con game. 

Then of course there has been the deliberate tactic of ignoring and smearing those who expressed doubts about the price strength/demand as shills. Yet the "shills" have been spot on and then you ask who is a shill for who?"

All true and excellent points - yet at the end of the day, it gains us nothing to dwell upon them. Silver and gold remain what they are, for all that they have been subsumed by a cult of conniving carnie barkers and their dopey followers. Those with exception faculties of awareness and the skills to employ that awareness in the cause of survival remain welcome to enjoy the status of  precious metals as personal wild cards in a game which very few of us have any chance of winning - but are destined to play regardless.

Giving voice to one's regrets and discomforts is a valuable and necessary part of getting on with one's life. As is summoning  the courage to move beyond them - without looking back.

__________________

‘I turned their right, pierced their centre, broke them everywhere; the day was mine, and yet they did not know it and would not run.’ Marchal Soult, (despatches to Napoleon)regarding the 57th Middlesex Regiment @ the Battle of Albuera 16 May 1811

Wy So Lo
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Srsrocco reporting at his peak

daveyboy
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Well mastercylinder, that was

Well mastercylinder, that was extremely eloquently put and just to clarify my position, it's not that I believe that silver itself is bullshit, the bullshit is the narrative and the bullshit is the overblown hyperbole which has been used to sell people into the silver story. 

This idea I am reading now that the silver each year can't cope with demand, while not erroneous, is again, just half baked. There are plentifuls of above ground silver (contrary to the so called facts which the likes of.........and co have been all to disseminate.

It will take both a big increase in demand and a falling away of supply further to only really upset the price of things and as demand either stagnates or falls in the industrial sector, then this too is helping to offset strains on supply.

As for me personally, I am just venting, but, if I am to take any positives out of the situation, then it's this, ir's the lesson about questioning those purporting to be "on your side"

mastercylinder
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Well Davey

It's been some time since I last looked here. Seems some things have changed.

I actually logged in the other day just to post a comment about a 'guest post' which caught my attention - as interesting evidence of some horse trading going on behind scenes between two junior B clubs. Felt obliged to let folks know how badly tarnished came the silvery sweet talk of of a guy who most famously called - in July of 2014 - for a "Huge Silver Spike;" just weeks before that metal took yet another body blow in August!

Anyways, I couldn't find any way to make a comment - I gather that this is now a privilege reserved for those who choose to actually pay to be sold a bill of goods~ call me crazy, but some how I can't feel comfortable with the notion that I should give money to a lad who tells me "you need an intrepid guide through the market madness" in pitching their subscription page. Even if I were looking for such, it sure wouldn't be someone with a batting avg of predictions which rivals the current level of interest rates - and even approaches NIRP!

So I ended up here - reading your cri de coeur - and reflecting for a moment on all the water which has passed under the bridge since 2011 or so. A stream mostly flowing from the many tears of grief and despair shed by metal holders. Not wanting to have totally wasted the trip down memory lane, I whipped up that response to what seemed to be the only sign of active mental cogitation I could discover on what has pretty clearly become just another fanboy site for folks who love to complain about how unfair it all is. Life, that is. Not much point in debating that premise. Best to just leave em to it.

As it turns out, that little exercise gave me something which I can pack up and take with me where ever I wander next. It's a nice, concise summation of my travels through the upside down world of gold n silver. Glad you enjoyed it too. Perhaps in appreciation of the opportunity that you provided, I will lay down that stillborn comment I came down here to make originally - below. Seems something which you also might enjoy reading. Happy trails!

__________________

‘I turned their right, pierced their centre, broke them everywhere; the day was mine, and yet they did not know it and would not run.’ Marchal Soult, (despatches to Napoleon)regarding the 57th Middlesex Regiment @ the Battle of Albuera 16 May 1811

mastercylinder
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Stunningly stupendous - as usual

So, what stupendous event lies behind the title “Something broke in the US silver market this year?” Was there a 'record broken' or was there a 'broken record?' Could it be both? So many questions to ask - about the mysterious disconnect between silver's “screaming fundamentals” and it's sorry market condition.

By the end of this post, we learn only that The U.S. Silver Market broke a trend this year.” Which seems to signal another disconnect; the one between the 'screaming headlines' with which writer's such as our guest consistently present another 'breaking news' story - and the 'fundamental fact' that nothing at all has changed about the pattern and performance of silver in the market for the past four years.

Yet a close inspection of pieces like this one shows that something is altering; and what that something seems to be is the way the people who present these stories are being forced to gradually inch away from long held opinions passed off as “economics 101” or “unquestionable fact.” In this particular case, after a long epoch of insisting that the domestic retail coin trade in the USA is the prime driver of global silver demand, it would appear that our man has finally conceded that the thesis no longer has a future. (Pumping up prospective coin buyers to being willing to accept 25-30% ase premiums do to contrived 'shortages' might not either!)

Two key elements in this post drive one towards that conclusion. Firstly, at some point between the third and fourth quarter of this current year, the author began to bundle the data about his favorite topic – coin sales – into the wider category of coin and bar. With this new angle he advanced the notion that 'global retail investors' were 'dominating' the dynamics of the silver market. For extra 'spice' in walking this taco dog around the block, he made 'stunning Indian demand' a new driving force of the theory. With this tsunami of global retail demand we were to believe that the mechanics of the silver market were being fundamentally altered. No such luck.

Second, one makes note of this revealing statement - “Of course, physical silver investment demand is much higher this year, but it doesn’t account for all the extra silver imports.  Thus, some large entities must be acquiring silver off the radar” In great contradistinction to the author's repeated attempts to refute Ted Butler's well reasoned claim that great proportions of the coin trade were being siphoned off into strong hands of the non-retail kind, the sentence we read here serves to announce the inevitable beginnings of the climb down from yet another shaky limb in search of more secure perches. JPM's acquiring ase's “off the radar” was denounced one year ago by this author as an absurdity – kind of like the idea of gold and silver going anywhere but north used to be characterized by such pundits as an absurdity! Because none of these characters ever openly announce or admit to a frank need to abandon a failed position, you have to realize that this is going to be as close to a rewind as we are likely to get.

JPM has been amassing huge stocks of silver in different formats in order to supply it's Sinitic controllers – who are stockpiling the metal in a big but surreptitious manner the outcome to which will have a shocking effect on the silver market – most particularly it's 'expert analysts.'

It's going to be interesting to watch this year close out – with silver battered into even worse shape than previous ones– and see if the same parties can manage to pull off their usual amnesia trick so as to make us forget all the pending breakouts, breakdowns, and breakings apart of every darn thing EXCEPT their own failed analysis. Ted began the assault on that consensus with his provoking piece from the very last week of 2014 – almost exactly one year ago. I have no predictions whatsoever to make about where silver is headed in 2016, but I am willing to make a small wager that the damage Butler did to that consensus 'retail coin sales are king' bluff and bluster is only going to get worse in the next year; and that many more carefully concealed climb downs by once high and mighty 'precious metals analysts' are likely to spotted by sharp eyed bird watchers out in the field. We can only hope that their vacated nesting sites are repopulated by a newer and more adaptable species of analyst!

As promised, here is the stillborn comment made for another part of the site which seems to be off limits now. Something for all the amnesia victims to get their feathers fluffed n ruffed about - before settling down into the next preening session. Later gator!

__________________

‘I turned their right, pierced their centre, broke them everywhere; the day was mine, and yet they did not know it and would not run.’ Marchal Soult, (despatches to Napoleon)regarding the 57th Middlesex Regiment @ the Battle of Albuera 16 May 1811

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Wy So Lo wrote: Silver was

Wy So Lo wrote:

Silver was taken to $50 in 1980 by the efforts of three billionaires, the equivalent of $600 today. The value of the physical market  is 14 billion in a world where there are now 2000 billionaires, looking for yield. How long will it take for just one of these people to say lets scrape up whats left of the physical and see what happens when nobody can buy it anymore. I can tell that the emotional bottom is in and there has never been a better time to squeeze the silver market higher. Once it starts it will be something that we will talk about for the rest of our lives. This is what tptb already know is coming.     http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/   That  my friends is why i am so totally confident that it will happen and soon, very soon.

If you're waiting for some billionaire to get into the silver to make a profit, you're wasting your time. If demand increases, the price will move higher, this is how markets work.

Don't you think people that are much richer and smarter than you would go long silver if there has a chance of a shortage in the silver market?   There's a reason why they don't, there's plenty of silver.

daveyboy
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Notice how these so called

Notice how these so called silver analysts/salesman forego any sense of analysis and instead use emotive language to express how "unbelievable" coin demand is.

So, then, let's take the example of the much vaunted ASE's to see whether or not they are being true to their words, or whether they are just expressing BULLSHIT.

2011 just under 40 m sales

2012 33.7 m sales

2013 42.65 m sales

2014 44 m sales

2015 sales 47 m to date

Okay, so here is the reality year on year....

2011-2012 -15.7%

2012 - 2013 26.7%

2013-2014 3.1%

2014-2015 6.8%

So, the world is on fire, there are potentials for even bigger wars and yet you cut through the BULLSHIT and you see that there is nothing spectacular about these sales.

Yet every year they will run with the story of mint shortages.....they are treating us like mentally stunted children who have no ability to question or recall previous events.

They are pernicious snakes and as for the closing down of the comments section on the front page, well, it's a difficult one but one thing I strongly recall is there were a few unhinged posters who were that fantatical about this cult like worship of a god damned metal, that they didn't just lambast, but one poster even threatened terrible acts of violence against people.

Silver is the battered house wife who believes that "this time it will be different" yet every time she believes that she is devoid of even more attention and the beat down on her intensifies.

zman
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Why some people are focused

Why some people are focused on ASE's when it's only 4-5% of the total physical market makes NO sense at all. 

Here's the big problem for silver- it's a byproduct (75%) of base mining, so regardless of the demand for physical silver, it's coming online no matter what the price.

What happens when demand increases and the price moves higher?   The primary silver miners (HL, SSRI, PAAS, ect)  come online and meet the new demand therefore keeping the price down.  There are so many silver projects just in Mexico that could come online with just $20 oz silver,  that's why silver has been and will most likely continue to be a poor investment over the long term.

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Davey

How about working the suspension of sales and quota allotments into your misguided rant on SE sales totals?

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My response to your question

My response to your question is a very simple one. The reason for the so called suspensions which by the way happen at different points in many years is simply that the mint does not have enough blanks because in that given time period they have underestimated demand and within operating on jit inventory then these things occur.
The fact is that has absolutely nothing to do with or has no link to a silver shortage and yet each time it occurs, the same old talking points are rammed down the listeners throat and or the readers throat.
Moreover you will find as the price of silver has fallen further the incredulity about a coming silver rebound, a rocket of a rebound has only intensified. The broken record just won't stop sticking and in the coming months we will see more stories about the imminent comex default just like we do every single year.
There are so many evident and blatant distortions of facts on the ground it is almost a pointless exercise in going through even a substantial number of them but here is one for you. The ridiculous and baseless link made between derivatives and actual physical silver stock. It is comical to think that such a link is made when most of these bets are not made with the expectation of silver delivery yet 300:1 is now being parroted as if this were a factual take on proceedings.
It's like being led away from a group of muggers into the arms of carers who are not actually carers but muggers who are not using knives but instead use love and care and a sense of a unified identity to make you part with your money and even when you are being robbed, they decry the outrage with you, console you tell you it wasn't them but don't worry if you give me more money we can fix this. This flow of money into our hands though must not stop otherwise we will never resolve this predicament for you.

sengfarmer
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Davey

OK, that is a possible explanation for ASE blank supply if you ignore this from the Mint's annual report:

"The Mint has been working tirelessly with its supply base since FY 2008 to increase the availability of silver blanks,

and in FY 2014 we completed a multi-year program to increase blank supply to more than 50 million blanks per year."

Does that not refute your JIT theory? What was the real reason to suspend sales and then have quotas?

What about the depletion of the US strategic stockpile of silver from 165 million ounces in 1968 to 0 today?

What about the Treasury holdings of  2 billion ounces in 1960 to roughly 600,000 ounces today and that held in the now named "deep storage" category?

Available supplies are obviously declining, why is price declining? If as you say it is because of such a huge supply, then why the huge price spike in 2011? What caused that?

As the market pendulum swings there are of course overshoots on both ends. Have we overshot the equilibrium price to the downside at this point?

daveyboy
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So let's deal with your

So let's deal with your questions.
Firstly there has been no huge spike in ASE's but of course I do not know about the machinations of their logistical set up. I do know though that year on year it's the most tedious headlines.
As for the inventory in America, I can't refute that but what I can point to is that so what? As long as there are imports to compensate then at worst it causes delays.
As for the repetition about so called above ground supplies, there are billions of above ground silver ounces. Whether that's in the form of jewellery, coins, or just the huge scale of silver antiques.
What caused the price spike? A bubble had formed driven by increased demand without the necessary supply to offset, a belief that this was it, Greece and co were going to leave the EU, the dollar was just about to collapse, China's demand for commodities would only increase, that one bank after another was about to shut up shop and a stronger allure that the Comex default was real, a clamour to protect ones assets and then it became a feeding frenzy causing a very now on reflection evident parabolic move.
What other factors were at play? Ah yes a much much higher oil price.
Have prices overshot to the downside? More than likely but then the othet illusory tale disseminated is that such conditions correct themselves in a matter of months.
I, am sickened by the lies and I have said it before and will say it again, what has really discredited silver as an investment is all of the baseless bullshit which tries to masquerade as exhaustive truth.

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