Silver sentiment really getting low these days

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#1 Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 3:44pm
lilbromarky1
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Silver sentiment really getting low these days

Since I began reading these blogs and following metals on youtube a few years ago I've never seen this many people with their tail between their legs. I guess the May crash really took the wind out of everyone's sails.

How much lower does sentiment have to go before a new rally comes and surprises the majority?

Edited by: lilbromarky1 on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:09am
Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 3:50pm
SilverTree
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Up-Up-Up

I see most of the weak hands shaken from the tree; smart money will take this opportunity and get more.

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 3:55pm (Reply to #2)
lilbromarky1
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re

SilverTree wrote:

I see most of the weak hands shaken from the tree; smart money will take this opportunity and get more.

What's interesting is that a lot of the pundits that I followed turned out to be weak hands. It went from "buy the dips" to flat out whining every time the price drops. People seem to feel more comfortable buying metals when the tide is rising

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Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 4:00pm (Reply to #3)
SilverTree
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.

I think the difference is that peeps like me will buy and hold whereas pundits can/will move more quickly to make a fast buck or two. I am not that savvy nor do I need to be.cool

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 4:16pm (Reply to #2)
Gunrunner
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Keep buying

Thank you for your remark about the smart money getting more. Makes me feel better. I picked up another 26ASE on Saturday and my wife about threw a fit. I actually feel stronger now knowing I am in for the long haul. I am just a little fish in this vast ocean, yet I just feel good when I can get a few more ounces for my future. Oh. The wife will just have to get over it...:)

Bang Bang
Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 4:23pm
Cleburne61
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Totally agree: the negative

Totally agree: the negative sentiment is a very bullish indicator, along with Ted's analysis of the COT.

Apparently the commercials have built a long position of over 52,000 contracts, the largest they've had since silver was 8.50 in early 2009. They've not added to their shorts for the most part. Don't know why they'd add to the longs in such a big way, if they intended to take it down another $15, right?

Open interest in silver is down to 117k. That's the lowest it's been in quite awhile as well. In other words, all the "leaves left in the tree" are all in strong hands. If you sell silver here, then you'll be giving up your seat just as the bullet train is set to take off. Whether it does so in the next 2 days, 2 weeks, or 2 months is immaterial. I beg of you to stay seated so you can have fun with the rest of us.

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 4:23pm
Sockeye
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I believe a lot of people are

I believe a lot of people are sitting and waiting for the trend to start up once again. no need to guess early. keep your cash until the train is ready to roll once again..

everyone knows we are simply pausing for the next run up.

I think the run up might have started today. But it will take a few days to confirm. 
The beginnings are always slow

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 4:53pm
Bill Brasky
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$36

The price is stuck at 36. Look at the last six Friday closes.

We are stuck in no mans land... QE2 ending, debt ceiling mess, deflation imminent or QE3 around the corner? It's a holding pattern. I've been shorting over 36 and buying under 36, closing my positions out on Friday afternoons for three weeks and made more than enough money to enjoy the Providence titty bars and Foxwoods on the weekends.

Got two more weeks of this I'm guessing.

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 4:57pm
jackmeoff
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I love dips.

I purchased a large amount of ASE on Friday @ only 1.50 cents over spot :). I just see this pullback as a great time to buy. I do protect myself by buying slv puts as I see it as 1 - an insurance on the paper price coming down and 2 as a play on the slv paper game as that I what I believe it is. If I have to sink 2 bucks to feel better about the downside and be protected against any cme hikes or games than so be it. I will say I have not lost a dime or a nights sleep over it. When the price went to 48 I had 40 puts and when it got down I took some of that off and used the cash to buy more. This brings my DCA down and lets me get more oz. There are ways to play the banks games and still be long.

Once people stop looking at gold and silver as trades ( well when more people invested ) they will not worry about the day to day or week to week moves as they will be seen for what they truly are.

Always remember why you got into this. If it was to make cash on ups and down then it is a game you may lose as it is nothing more than a manipulated system that is there to siphon your currency but good luck.

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 5:21pm
Mr. M
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I've noticed the same, the

I've noticed the same, the low sentiment, the price pushing, and the blahs of no action. I've noticed that we, those who have interest in silver, are becoming complacent. Bored. I've also noticed that the trader is a victim. Everytime, scared to be alone with his investments. Pity. Because, there is a way those investors could take the Bull by the balls, but their mom's voice in their heads keeps withering their middle-aged, balded self-esteem away. For all you savvy investors, there's Silver Viral Project. Protect your investments, pussywillow. SilverDoctors.com

Silver Virality: Project Awareness The Revolution will be televised. -SilverDoctors.com
Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 5:52pm
erewenguy
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The runup and crash may have

The runup and crash may have shaken silver out of weak hands, but I have significantly increased my holdings since May. I think that the current sentiment may have more to do with overall disgust at the state of the world's economies and the predicament we find ourselves in.

As the price of silver was leaping daily during April, I was actually more filled dread over what was happening. Our precious metals holdings are not much of a comfort in light of what we as a nation are going to be confronted with. No one I know will be better off after the default of the USD. My family and I should fare alright, but I am appalled at the regular and ongoing attacks on our society designed to enrich a few at the expense of many.

Tue, Jun 21, 2011 - 9:45am
lilbromarky1
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Good stuff.  QE3 will be here

Good stuff. QE3 will be here just in time to prop up the USA debt market. There's just no way they are going to let this nation come to a sudden death type moment when they can drag it out into a long painful double overtime inflation scenario. I will say this though, people keep saying "deflation scare". The money supply right now is contracting. You can see it everywhere. There's a reason everyone is defaulting on their credit. Deflation = default. The reason prices are rising is because the level of available goods and services are contracting at a much faster pace than the money supply. This divergence causes the bids for the remaining goods and services to rise even though the overall money supply is contracting. Some folks call this stagflation but I dont like that word because it seems to dumb down a relatively complex idea. So instead of stagflation I prefer to call it monetary deflation mixed with massive decrease in production.

If you want evidence of falling production, go and visit a retailer and compare the level of inventory on their shelf to how it might have been a year ago. I was out buying speakers the other day and every store I called had nothing in stock but said it could be ordered. Nooone wants to keep inventory on hand right now. This is called a shortage. Shortages will be the defining characteristic of this depression we are in. 

For Bernanke to stop the deflation and actually succeed in increasing the money supply he's going to have to hand out George W style stimulus checks to the entire population. Handing more base money to the banks isnt going to do anything as they are already sitting on 1.5 trillion and lending is still there, but much slower than it was in 2008.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

The only other force that could overwhelm the deflation right now would be an abandonment of the dollar by one of the overseas holders. I dont think any foreign nation will do this though until they have their economy prepped in such a way that they could pull the plug on the dollar without hurting their output levels too much.

Like my ideas? Check our blog at: https://backtobasicseconomics.blogspot.com/
Tue, Jun 21, 2011 - 11:18am
Seacap81
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Once silver reaches 40, the

Once silver reaches 40, the physical buying will be back with a vengeance. And I suspect this time, the remaining supply to be soaked up completely.

Tue, Jun 21, 2011 - 11:53am (Reply to #13)
Dr G
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Agree with Seacap. The May

Agree with Seacap. The May massacre was a huge psychological blow to the speculative investors. For you and I, for most of us, it was simply another opportunity to get silver at a discounted price.

It takes some pushing to get the wheels moving again, but once the mass gets moving the momentum will carry for a while (or until the EE lays the smack down once again).

It looks as though some pushing to get that momentum may be happening this morning. A close above $36.30ish would be a great start.

Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 4:13pm
Bill Brasky
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Well below $36

This is the first Friday in seven weeks that Silver didn't finish within a few cents of 36. Luckily I was only in shorts since Wednesday otherwise it would have been a boring weekend.

This isn't a good short term sign for Silver, we could start testing the 200 day next week.

Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 5:17pm (Reply to #15)
lilbromarky1
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Bill Brasky wrote: we could

Bill Brasky wrote:

we could start testing the 200 day next week.

Would love to see that

Like my ideas? Check our blog at: https://backtobasicseconomics.blogspot.com/