2015 blemont

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Ruffian
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2015 blemont

My advice is to not bet. Just sit back and watch history.

American pharaoh is going to run his best race ever and no one is going to try to stop him. He's just done everything perfect. The last 5 of his 6 races including the Preakness he spent no effort. So he's not even tired. His workouts are flawless. Mubtaahij might have made it interesting but he just won't switch leads and he's not taking to Belmont. No way he gets 12furlongs using one leg to power off of.

Unless something tragic happens and let's hope not. He's your winner. Everyone else is just running for bigger check, not thee check.

Watch the woody Stephens deepest grade one I've seen in ages..... Look for a price on competitive edge. He would have made the Belmont a horse race but it's not to be.

Belmont cheap tri key AP on top of the 3 M's.

Ruffian
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For shytes an d giggles

And since this is a metals site. I thought ya all might like to know that the tale of verve is owned by fella name chuck fipke...he's a metal miner. Although his first score was as a teen finding a canadian diamond statsh from the air. He goes all over the world determining sites to dig and he's very, very, good at it.

I like him cuz he says if you buy a million dollar horse all that means is that you have a lot of money. But if you breed one.."...... Well he bred tale of verve who is stunning. He can also run all day long but hasn't got tactical speed.

This years crop of 3 yr olds are like show horses...what a bunch of lookers.... But good luck to chuck, he's a good guy that loves dirt and horses. Like moi

Ruffian
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Few tidbits

John Velasquez jockey of materiality has said he isn't going to use materiality to go after American pharaoh.

Also saw mubtaahij running on his right lead. He might run better than expected. This is important for horse to switch the leg they lead off on for balance in the turns and on the straights to give the leg a rest. Also he's been trained in Europe style which means the really don't start running till the last quarter. He never changed leads in the derby. So if he's learned to do that he will run a lot better and not tire as quickly.

The only negative I can come up with for American pharaoh is he looks a bit lean... Ribby... Like lance Armstrong gotta love roids...

Ruffian
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Ok I lied

I'm a degenerate gambler at heart and it's impossible for me not to wager and tryto beat the chalk.

I'm going to the track and placing my bet on Mubtaahij to upset American pharaoh. I'm keying on top of materiality, AP, frosted and maybe one or two more depending on the odds. I don't advise anyone else to do this. Nor do I advise playing AP on top of frosted and materiality, your not going to make any money. The takeout is way too high in NY.

I just think the mub has made significant enjough improvement to give a AP a race. Not to mention his training and pedigree are polluted with 12 furlongs. Something like 7 eu champions. Plus he's not gonna get pinned on the inside. He's able to throw a remarkable turn of foot in last furlong. If he can stay close enough, he's got a shot. And I love double digit odds.

I'm positive AP is going to the front ala secretariat unless he breaks bad or gets his hoof ripped off like Cali chrome last year. If AP gets loose no one is gonna catch him.

Also if you have any interest in racing I'd advise ya watch the undercard. It's better than the breeders cup cards. There will be a lot of opportunity to cash cuz the fields are packed full of proven talented grade 1 horses. So much so there won't be
anything interesting to watch until at least July.

Oh well I'll be a fool or a genius...

One last tip. One of the most brilliant trainers was fond of saying when the front end collapses the back end catches up.... In other words if the little speed thats here tires....look for your real deep closers , frammento, tale of verve and keen ice to be in the exotics.... It's a cya bet aka or cover ya arse...

Edit: life is full of characters but racing attracts more than it's share. The guy I mentioned above is now gone and was a cantankerous old man. I spent countless hours with him and he'd end every conversation with : " now go put. A dress on and head to the grandstand side and get a lemonade. ". I miss that old crab.... I'm much rather be sitting smelling the horseshyte and drinking bourbon, than smelling perfume and drinking lemonade. He knew that.

Ruffian
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Too much

Pletchers barn has virus running thru it.

Competitive edge slowed had green snot leaking out of his nostrils coming off the track and he's already scratched a few others.... So far his blemont starters are still in.

Marblesonac
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Yawn

What a snoozer of a race!

You called AP winning a long time ago, congrats!

Ruffian
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Yeah it kinda sucked

It was an easy call. I had picked him and others too in The future Derby wagers. Which by the way they start this year for next years. No refunds for non starters. I do NOT advise anyone to play those pools,

But AP was set to go. Horse racing is bumping, grinding, cutting off routes, closing holes etc...as I've said it's like roller ball. Watch last years breeders cup classic and see what happen to shared belief. That IS horse racing. I never saw AP have a route cut off or even a bump. TPTB declared there was going to be a crown and here we are.

Having said that"..AP is a very,very good horse. He still had to run the race. He can't help his connections are scum. But after watching every triple crown race and preps about a million times. I feel cheated. The public doesn't and will never know what goes on behind the scenes.

The horse I played ran well but he refused to changed leads again. His poor jock iraz Ortiz had just been in a race where the horse he was on pulled up mid race and went down. He jumped off unhurt, but the horse had to euthanized on the track damned close to where ruffian buried. He still rode a good race but he just couldn't get the mub to use his other legs.... So
what I lost 12 bucks.... It went the way I figured it would.

AP, He's still a very nice horse... Great lines confirmation, nice speed, versatile... It's the intaginbles that are missing. But he danced all the dances ...and he gets the trophy.

I used to be a huge football fan. I mean I'm from Pittsburgh the only city in the country where females know the Tampa two

and cover two are the same play. A dime and nickel package isn't a drug deal. Yet after, I watched the steelers beat Seattle.... I had to turn it off and I've never watched another game again. I think they went twice more and I have never saw a second of it. I'm feeling the same about my sport right now.

Edit: if I have a few to many one night. I'll tell ya exactly how that horse was prepped to win......

Monserrat
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Great Comments and Insights Ruffian

From what I could surmise reading all your thoughts is that except for the race the outcome was determined or quite nearly so. Still, your love of the horses comes through and when all is said and done--there needs to be more Ruffians in the world to keep the place honest. Loved reading your thoughts!

Ruffian
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Thx Monserrat

That was very kind of you to say.

Don't get me wrong, the horse still ran the race. AP was just the horse who fit the bill. Yes, I love them more than myself. I love the competition and chess games played behind scenes too. But.... There is a limit to the degree of corruption that one can deal with.

Thx again!

Ruffian
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Sad

Danzing moon who ran solid races in the derby and Preakness was euthanized over a displaced fracture in his rear. Owned by canadain miners her was sent back to Canada to race in their triple crown.

This is one if the many sad and ugly sides to racing. I cringe every time I see or hear of it.

On another note california Chromes full sister was just nipped in a four furlong baby race. Meanwhile it looks like her big brother will probably withdraw from royal ascot due to a bruised foot. Aside from that he looks very fit.

My regrets to Charlie on his loss. He really loved that horse!

question
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@ Ruffian

Have you heard from John?

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Ruffian
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@Q

The growing season is very short in this general area. So I reckon he like every other farmer is pretty darn busy at the moment and will be for the next few months.

Then again, maybe he decided to efff it and is dancing naked in bora bora hehe....

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@ Ruffian, Thanks

Just wondering as his website is closed as well  as his thread here gone; miss his steady thinking. This is the busy time for farmers!

dancing naked in bora bora

LOL, see ya there ;)

wishing ya well

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Ruffian
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@Q

I did notice that too.

So I guess we will all meet up on the beach! Maybe I can trade a saddle for a surf board hehe!

My best back at ya

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