Early Belmont

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Ruffian
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Early Belmont

Well as it should be all the attention is American pharaoh. First let me say he really is a nice moving horse. He has a rocking horses motion and a naturally low level headset like a quarter horse. Which isn't surprising since most quarter horses that are racing trace their female family line back to secretariat.

All the gossip is on Baffert keeping him at Churchill. The speculation is varied. Personally, since horsemen are superstitious. I believe he has him there cuz he lost 3 triples by shipping early into NY.

Having said that he has only jogged and just started galloping. He looks slow and he should. Nothing should be read into that at this point.

Now his competition is looking good. Tale of verve who was second in the Preakness will be running and he's puzzling. That horse can run all day but he just doesn't have tactical speed.

I'm really keying in on materiality and frosted. They are rested and they look good and they should. Nothing here as of yet.

There is a newcomer who might be the best of them all. I'll talk about him in my next post.

After careful review, Easy Goer would have blown the doors off of American Pharoah. The track was sloppy but APs Preakness was over five seconds slower than previous 2 classic winners. Again I remind all sloppy is not slow.

JustDale
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Ruffian ...

I left this for you over on the old Preakness thread:

 

Hope you like it ... "The Ballad of the Absent Mare"  Leonard Cohen

Dale 

Ruffian
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@Dale

Yes, I did and I forgot to thank You. Naturally, I got kick out it.

Sometimes, I'm multitasking and forget stuff

So thank you and apologies.

JustDale
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No apology necessary ...

I just wanted to be sure you got it.    smiley

Dale

Ruffian
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AP

Had a nice breeze at Churchill with Martin Garcia aboard. Yeah that Dortmunds jock but the belmont mount is still with Victor Espinoza.

I'm really trying hard to like this horse but aside from the fact I think he lack in areas. I despise his connections. What can I say about guy who has mobsters and massive outstanding offshore gambling debts. Which is why he quickly syndicated AP for 20 million. Naturally, the industry could care less where he gets his cash from. But it's crud like him that are ruining this sport.

War story has withdrawn which is smart. He's a little fella and a gelding. They need to protect him and give him class relief.

Ocho Ocho Ocho will not enter either. I've really gained respect for this little guy too. But he's not a classic horse.

Saw carpe diem. He looks good but he's still pulling in ever so lightly on his left rein as he did at Keeneland. I don't know what to make of it. This horse just hates Churchill. He made no effort whatsoever at both starts and the only two clunkers he has ran.

Ok mubtaaji is back in and is hard to evaluate. People are all over his workout times. But they are NOT factoring in he trains on turf without shoes. While I eventually decided to toss him in the derby. He's now had time to acclimate. I don't know if he will use lasix or not at Belmont. But he did run a bullet last week. This week he is slow but it's by design. He's an X factor again for now. he also has a new jock. His reg jock is good and he didn't jump off cuz he thinks this horse is a loser. I think de kock has selected a Belmont jock cuz Belmont is an optical tactical track that has fooled the best of them. Smart move.

IMHO materiality ran the best derby. He's green and improving. Is five weeks enough to make that jump? I dunno but look for him to be the most likely pressed and give the race an honest pace for a change

Frosted he's gonna be in it again. He is most likely to take advantage of honest pace. If AP hits the 1/4 in 47 he's got no chance tho. I think he is peak already.

A new comer I'm not going to post cuz yet cuz I can't get a good view of him yet.

Once again, we have no idea who's in or out yet.... This game is changing and not for the better. Some of the best horses are not coming, only those with owners with deep pockets or one that manage to score breeding contracts in advance.

We aren't getting a TC winner cuz we are breeding milers cuz tracks are writing classic distance races in the USA. Even the deep pockets don't want to invest for only 3 races. The whole thing is falling to shit since 2005 when wall street came in and set up partnerships they implicitly state they run ownership like a hedge fund. We all know how that usually ends.

Whether AP wins or not hes not even close to those 70s winners. They weren't babied. They didn't just gallop, they turned in works twice a day. That why's secretariat could have gone around that monstrous Belmont over a few times.
P

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In and out

Conquest curlinate is out of the belmont. Good idea, his chances were slim and he was never nominated so hed have to pay the fees.

In is Truth or else who is coming off a 12 furlong win on the Belmont surface. He gets edgar prado who is a master at big sandy.

Ok in other news American who? Wise Dan is back to galloping. He's now eight and a warrior. My favorite tbred I ever seen live. He never ceases to amaze me. Every time I've think I've seen him do it all. He goes out and does it again and better. He really is a national treasure and he earned every thing he's done. He's this centuries sea biscuit. I hope he trains back up to make breeders cup condition. Even if he doesn't,so what he's done it before .. Several times.

One would be right to question after his last fracture why not retire him. That is until you see Dan never taking his eyes on the track. He actually stares ahead and never turns his head away. That's why! Dan will let us know when it's over.

No works scheduled until the weekend.

Oh and the irony. I was bought tickets to see the rolling stones lol. On Belmont day? Not only that it's about five or more years too late for a rock concert to interest me.

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Update

Frosted worked today and looked comfortable and a consummate professional. He is definitely in peak form.

Also got a good look at carpe diem. Despite his poor derby this horse is a rocket and worked with no urging. Materiality turned in a good time in company but he still looks immature but also went with no urging while his work mate made from lucky also a contender had to be urged time from time.

The horse I've promised an update on is named competitive edge and I can't get a look at him. I've seen enough of him tho to know he's a bullet. I just can't see his current form.

AP is working clockwise.... Speculation abounds again. Personally, I gallop clockwise for a few reasons. One so the horse knows it isn't a serious work and two to alleviate boredom. So make of it whatever ya want.

Carpe diem leaning in on that left rein still bothers me. It shouldn't tho cuz it isn't bothering Pletcher. He must be thrilled with materiality turning in a solid work while playing.

As always this will probably be a jockeys race. Meaning they play a more important role here than most places.

More to come..... I reckon AP will open at 4/5. Which means I'll be looking to beat him.

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Weird

I'm hearing rumors that Pletcher might not be starting carpe diem and materiality. Yet, will enter it's a knockout.

This is all so unprecedented that once again we are so close to a classic and only a few have declared. It simply can't be summed by up being afraid of American pharaoh. Frammento is in and so is tale of verve both a fee notches below. Those other checks are quite sizable.

The recently deceased Allen jerkins earned his nic name of giant slayer by beating 7 hall of fame horses, including secretariat himself twice. He knew horses had off days and in a short field he put his allowance horses up against them. Dr. Fager, forego and many others fell to Jenkins. So something is not right in racing land.

Had another good look at frosted,. He really is in form and if there is any pace set in this race. He's a good pick. However the past five crown races have been a disgrace.... Something not so funny is going on......

Ruffian
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Disgusted

Carpe diem and truth or else have both withdrawn from the Belmont.

They are basically handing this race and the triple crown to American pharaoh and it makes me sick. AP is good horse but he's a better looking horse than he is a race horse. If he were in open grade one company he would be destroyed.

There isn't a damn thing wrong with carpe diem. Yeah he sucked in the derby but that race was a toss for me cuz that horse hates Churchill downs, a lot of horses do. This race was a perfect fit for him.

Frosted is still in there for now but he has tendency to ease in the stretch and his pedigree is lacking for distance. His full sister was a distance limited sprinter. Materiality is also there but he's still so green. He is getting speed but he was looking all over nd tossing his head. A sure sign of immaturity.

As of now every horse but one will get a check. Now others people are getting what I've been bitching about since last year ... The set up. Of course AP still has to run the race... I suspect he will make a secretariat type move.

All the posters, shirts etc have been printed weeks ago....

And the Pletcher horse I thought was the best of the entire group I could get a recent look at is entered in another race....

Pimlico track was sealed and it was fast as hell... Sloppy but fast. And his time was over five seconds slower than the the slowest 2 leg winner.....

I domt even think I'm going to watch.... It makes me sick for real. Everything is corrupted....

Marblesonac
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Thanks

Thanks for the update.

I thought after last years outburst they'd fix a triple crown winner this year.

I thought they would fix it with jockeys, drugs or some other way during the races. Guess I was wrong, as you said, they are fixing it by who enters....

At least we know who to bet to win.

Maybe you can tell us how to bet the exotics?

Ruffian
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@marblesonac

Sorry for the outburst!

It's really hard to fix a horse race. There are things that go on that the public doesn't see. For example, I claimed a horse who always had raced on the front end. So I instructed his jockey to hold him back. He was so used to going for the lead that when he was checked he choked and was lost. Next morning the Stewarts wanted an explaination.

Yeah there are drenchers aka drifters but everyone knows who they are. Few of them in the Belmont. Keep in mind tho we all drug them. That's ok but it depends on what drugs, why and when. They test, but these horses should all be in a detention barn 24hrs pre race.

If you saw shared beliefs breeders crown, he was the fav. The target and he got bumped and pushed by everyone. That's how it's supposed to be. Race riding is like roller derby. This bull crap no pace, no nothing is absurd.

I have to wait until the field is set and guess what the odds and pool figures will pay. Handicapping and gambling are different. Most of us are not pro gamblers and when I give out picks I give the cheapest bets.

Now don't get me wrong AP still has to win this race....but there is no speed in here. To win the Belmont you need speed for position but then you better be able grind and gallop. In other words you want to run quarters equally timed.

Once the field is set I'll try to come up with something.... It hard to make a profit on a short field with an overwhelming fav that could go as low as 1/2. Oh and I think it's gonna rain too.

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Not a betting race

After a little thought the post position draw is meaningless.

I see American pharaoh going for the lead or near it depending on what materiality does. Frosted has speed but I don't think he will get the distance, nor do I think mubtaaji will. Keen ice and tale of verve both can gallop all day but they are deep closers and will be too far back.

Materiality IMO is the only one on paper who has a shot but in reality he's not ready. AP will shoot for 12 second splits and control the pace, race over.

So that mean AP plus all, which everyone is going to bet. The deep pockets will be dumping 100k on that bet too cuz it's the only way to eke out any payout.

Oh well he's a dam good looking horse. There has just been too much pressure on the industry to change the races or eliminate them and those big puppy mills in KY aren't about to kill their billions of dollars revenue flow.

I won't be wagering a dime.

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